UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID · 2019-10-10 · ANALYSIS OF FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE – HIGH TAJO RIVER AT ITS PASSES THROUGH ARANJUEZ (MADRID). Mora Aguado, Lorenzo SEPTIEMBRE

UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID

FACULTAD DE GEOGRAFÍA E HISTORIA

MÁSTER UNIVERSITARIO EN

TECNOLOGÍAS DE LA INFORMACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA

TRABAJO FIN DE MÁSTER

CURSO 2018‐2019

ANÁLISIS DEL RIESGO DE INUNDACIONES EN EL CURSO MEDIO –

ALTO DEL RÍO TAJO A SU PASO POR ARANJUEZ (MADRID).

ANALYSIS OF FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE – HIGH TAJO RIVER AT

ITS PASSES THROUGH ARANJUEZ (MADRID).

Mora Aguado, Lorenzo

SEPTIEMBRE 2019

TUTORES:

DR. PALACIOS ESTREMERA, DAVID y DRA. DE ANDRÉS DE PABLO, NURIA.

Departamento de Geografía. Facultad de Geografía e Historia. Universidad Complutense

de Madrid (UCM).

DÑA. ESPADA VEGA, JULIA.

Departamento de Medio Ambiente. Ayuntamiento de Aranjuez.

RESUMEN:

El presente documento se basa en el análisis de la vulnerabilidad social ante inundaciones

en la localidad de Aranjuez (Madrid). En una primera fase, esta investigación muestra la

aplicación del Índice de Vulnerabilidad Social (IVS) en la mencionada ciudad, ubicada en

la llanura de inundación del río Tajo. En una segunda fase, se realiza la intersección

espacial entre el IVS y los mapas de peligrosidad por inundación fluvial del ámbito de

estudio, según períodos de retorno (10, 100 y 500 años), para obtener el riesgo

demográfico. Como resultado, las secciones del distrito 1 (Foso-Moreras) contienen las

principales zonas propensas al riesgo de inundación. El área de estudio seleccionada es de

gran interés porque, pese a que la ocurrencia de eventos de inundación se ha reducido

considerablemente con la construcción de los embalses de Entrepeñas y Buendía,

históricamente Aranjuez ha sido la ciudad más afectada por avenidas del Tajo. Mediante

las Tecnologías de la Información Geográfica (TIG), se demuestra que el riesgo de

inundación aún existe y podría traducirse en perjuicios para la población, tanto a nivel

económico como humano.

Palabras clave: vulnerabilidad social, riesgo de inundación, río Tajo, Aranjuez,

Tecnologías de Información Geográfica (TIG).

ABSTRACT:

This document is based on the analysis of social vulnerability to floods in Aranjuez

(Madrid). Firstly, this investigation shows the application of the Social Vulnerability Index

(IVS) in the mentioned city, located in the flood plain of the Tajo river. Secondly, the IVS

intersects with the flood hazard maps of the fiel of study, according to return periods (10,

100 and 500 years), to obtain the demographic risk. As a result, sections of district 1 (Foso-

Moreras) contain the main areas prone to flood risk. The selected study area had a great

interest because, although the occurrence of flood events has been greatly reduced with the

construction of the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs, historically Aranjuez has been the

most affected city by avenues of the Tajo. Through Geographic Information Technologies

(GIT), it is shown that the risk of flooding still exists and could result dangerous to people,

in the economically and humanly way.

Keywords: social vulnerability, flood risk, Tajo river, Aranjuez, Geographic Information

Technologies (GIT).

ÍNDICE DE CONTENIDOS

1. INTRODUCCIÓN. ........................................................................................................ 8

1.1. Las inundaciones fluviales y su estudio. ................................................................. 8

1.2. Justificación del trabajo de investigación. .............................................................. 9

1.3. Objetivos del trabajo de investigación. ................................................................. 10

1.4. Estructura del trabajo de investigación. ................................................................ 10

2. MARCO TEÓRICO. .................................................................................................... 12

2.1. Conceptos. ............................................................................................................. 12

2.2. Estudios previos sobre vulnerabilidad. ................................................................. 14

2.3. Encuadre del TFM en los estudios de vulnerabilidad. .......................................... 15

3. ÁREA DE ESTUDIO: ARANJUEZ (MADRID). ....................................................... 17

3.1. Localización: desde la cuenca del Tajo hasta Aranjuez........................................ 17

3.2. Características del territorio. ................................................................................. 21

3.2.1. Morfología urbana. ........................................................................................ 21

3.2.2. Clima. ............................................................................................................ 23

3.2.3. Relieve. .......................................................................................................... 25

3.2.4. Geología y Geomorfología. ........................................................................... 25

3.2.5. Vegetación. .................................................................................................... 27

3.2.6. Tipo y usos del suelo. .................................................................................... 27

3.2.7. Hidrografía..................................................................................................... 29

3.3. Histórico de inundaciones en Aranjuez y su registro............................................ 31

4. METODOLOGÍA Y FUENTES. ................................................................................. 39

4.1. Materiales. ............................................................................................................. 40

4.2. Georreferenciación y limpieza del plano de Aranjuez. ......................................... 40

4.3. Cálculo del Índice de Vulnerabilidad Social (IVS). ............................................. 42

4.3.1. Inventario de variables o indicadores. ........................................................... 42

4.3.2. IVS. ................................................................................................................ 42

4.3.3. Representación cartográfica de la vulnerabilidad social por distritos y

secciones....................................................................................................................... 47

4.4. Intersección espacial entre la vulnerabilidad social y la peligrosidad por

inundación fluvial. ........................................................................................................... 48

4.5. Presentación gráfica de resultados en Google Earth. ............................................ 52

Cálculos

FID_DistritoSecciónSuperficie_HaSuperficie_Km2V1: Edad69V3: Edad_16-69V4: HombresV5: MujeresV6: PoblacionV7: EspañolesV8: ExtranjerosV9: Sin_EstudiosDensidad_Pob%_Pob_Env%_Pob_Jov%_Pob_Muj%_Pob_Ext%_Pob_Sin_EstudiosN_DenPobN_%PobEnvN_%PobJovN_%PobMujN_%PobExtN_%PobSinEstIVS

11112.389426479100.1238942647924824811137408691609113547418512986.88040737215.413300186515.413300186554.008701056629.459291485411.49782473590.24344717560.42323175880.23398271460.71935594060.88782868310.51935626550.4622272806

21213.932834697600.139328346983363941579112911802309194336628816572.363414300317.063663923814.551754006151.10437418815.851017756612.47293200520.32368021390.48179970060.18172370640.23103073980.42590799720.57358306540.3865653343

31316.107034277800.16107034278253633111388611131999169530438712410.726677071731.665832916512.656328164155.677838919515.207603801919.35967983990.230554473510.066752417710.40406788570.95656277330.6599351713

4142.788546510500.02788546511237167792563633119682037614342889.727515627913.963210702319.816053511752.926421404731.438127090311.95652173910.91258889890.37177112960.50104155310.53738453990.95499848860.54486491610.5406324582

5153.502437124670.0350243712534114911497918481639110253728846795.98638489279.090909090920.805369127551.738865161732.763880414917.571690054910.19886338180.56105070180.337712234810.85713067240.5551190479

61610.291225801400.10291225801228161768558599115779236517711242.586863098513.91529818519.706136560151.771823681931.547104580815.29818496110.20441478570.3700708150.49437429480.3432537860.95869763210.73069852510.5211704043

71711.790760133100.11790760133207115872595599119411157910410126.57357559259.631490787317.336683417150.16750418766.61641541048.71021775540.17944154310.21804749040.35064982120.07350810140.11244767630.36433434040.2535112254

81853.105456251900.531054562525431061712114312182361228378934445.87085138834.489623041122.99872935251.58831003813.30368487933.93900889450.05232337280.03557340680.69409386610.312398327500.09900210820.2378519116

9197.053088338310.0705308833833319411748098921701150020113624117.09478755211.405055849519.576719576752.439741328611.81657848327.99529688420.49251010940.28098758840.48652421860.4555555460.28896256280.32457679550.3699200066

10216.775717968250.067757179681961749436316821313105126211919378.020250437213.252094440214.927646610851.942117288719.95430312269.06321401370.3864629330.34653510750.2045243120.37188646520.56519035060.3839648550.3449154095

112235.597376448000.35597376448343306155510871117220418513532256191.46751789313.883847549915.562613430150.680580762316.016333938310.20871143380.09138492290.3689546980.2430396430.15977532710.43151950720.44766724080.3246784979

122311.664928908200.116649289084383961999136414692833212770634724286.474630878513.978115072415.460642428551.853159195224.920578891612.24849982350.49630035460.37230005440.23685436410.35692930620.73376614170.56110214220.4170085983

132410.220989154600.1022098915521317110507097251434125617820414029.953249237411.924686192514.853556485450.557880055812.412831241314.22594142260.26678821590.29942817750.200030210.13914478170.30920182970.67106986920.3322240515

142510.448962225400.104489622254633151679118912682457188657133623514.29689378512.820512820518.844118844151.607651607723.239723239713.67521367520.47902118580.33121918250.44208668460.31565036360.67671099930.64044328650.4611632788

15265.982925270940.059829252713902131615108411342218168753130037072.1661989199.603246167717.583408476151.12714156923.940486925213.52569882780.78240821780.21704514820.36561548080.2348587820.70049779610.63212859950.4155992033

162766.789289814200.66789289814489246216814291474290325993042454346.50526764978.473992421616.844643472350.775060282510.47192559428.4395452980.05009985020.17697030530.32080403920.1756608430.24331952270.34928194390.2475515192

17288.103374849250.081033748493682101554102111112132179833430526310.02563329939.849906191417.260787992552.110694183915.666041275814.30581613510.5415817420.22579859430.34604621470.40023050150.41962913590.67551179080.3984185409

18316.433567994870.06433567995187174862602621122395426911019009.669299760214.227309893715.290269828350.776778413721.99509403118.99427636960.37822027340.3811434550.22652003340.17594972470.63446317350.38013115590.3469515795

193226.387725890000.263877258905023221923133114162747226448327710410.143001527111.721878412818.274481252351.547142337117.582817619210.08372770290.18578703030.29223095550.40753404390.30547650820.48469239530.44071675650.3660023908

203311.294161023000.112941610234203221901130513382643217147231123401.472624816112.183125236515.891032917150.624290578917.858494135511.76693151720.47649649560.30859963620.26296066060.15031085690.49404998820.53432159290.3534452839

213413.742301345600.1374230134620730710057377821519133418520711053.461584047920.210664911113.627386438451.481237656412.179065174513.62738643840.20018269320.5934801540.12565412660.29439548390.30126684950.63778356070.406589658

223512.280556441200.1228055644128024413238849631847159125637215040.035106255513.210611802915.159718462452.138603140213.860314022720.14076881430.28939101060.34506297580.21860114860.40492303350.358335338610.4489645676

233631.145898662000.311458986623413111202932922185414923623175952.629654773816.774541531818.392664509249.730312837119.525350593317.09816612730.08604040240.47153935430.414702713300.55062994050.830797480.4706619948

24375.097698899190.0509769889943710011918538751728158614217133897.64743214965.78703703725.289351851950.63657407418.21759259269.89583333330.71137140470.08161590380.8330366910.15237616860.16679820430.43026774160.3862834997

253873.495045591800.73495045592179291107973381615491492572382107.625061699218.786313750811.55584247952.67914783733.679793415115.364751452500.542932923800.49580867060.0127666680.73440036170.3606174833

263930.157583779800.30157583780235739636236481271119873674214.52862165755.74350904818.489378442250.98347757675.7435090485.27143981120.04714658350.08007118690.4205691130.21070352990.08281765020.17310007370.1954930962

2731021.253244281500.212532442825651331659113612212357217318417011090.07156169415.642766228323.971149766751.80313958427.80653372937.21255833690.20100192160.07649603590.75307819870.34851915210.15284517870.28104783420.3276144564

284110.822177894100.108221778941171766824745019757841911489009.277148655518.05128205131251.384615384619.589743589715.17948717950.15443958750.5168481930.02694136670.27814969190.55281570320.72409760940.3974278403

294230.858007178000.308580071781892051081723752147512662092404779.958704046213.898305084712.81355932250.983050847514.169491525416.27118644070.05979932050.36946776560.07628962480.21063178080.36883009260.78480821970.3478105332

304314.900479845000.1490047984524221710867697761545128925617110368.793596391714.045307443415.663430420750.226537216816.56957928811.0679611650.18486174680.37468457040.24915492270.08343374590.4502989260.49545107410.3364006712

3144132.579941638001.3257994163883610520701477153430112674337652271.08261083823.487213550327.76486217250.946529392211.19229491862.15875124540.003657720800.98319429960.2044911680.267771815400.2932077593

3245143.085000534001.430850005341097150266519321980391232736391082734.03919726053.834355828228.041922290450.613496932516.33435582822.76073619630.01401738880.012319350110.14849604410.44231447590.03347705280.320173137

Indicadores

DistritoSecciónV1: Edad69V3: Edad_16-69V4: HombresV5: MujeresV6: PoblacionV7: EspañolesV8: ExtranjerosV9: Sin_Estudios

11248248111374086916091135474185

1233639415791129118023091943366288

132536331113886111319991695304387

142371677925636331196820376143

15341149114979184816391102537288

162281617685585991157792365177

172071158725955991194111579104

18543106171211431218236122837893

19333194117480989217011500201136

2119617494363168213131051262119

2234330615551087111722041851353225

2343839619991364146928332127706347

24213171105070972514341256178204

2546331516791189126824571886571336

2639021316151084113422181687531300

2748924621681429147429032599304245

2836821015541021111121321798334305

311871748626026211223954269110

3250232219231331141627472264483277

3342032219011305133826432171472311

34207307100573778215191334185207

35280244132388496318471591256372

36341311120293292218541492362317

37437100119185387517281586142171

3817929110797338161549149257238

3923573963623648127111987367

31056513316591136122123572173184170

41117176682474501975784191148

42189205108172375214751266209240

43242217108676977615451289256171

448361052070147715343011267433765

45109715026651932198039123273639108

DensidadYPorcentajes

DistritoSecciónDensidad_Pob%_Pob_Env%_Pob_Jov%_Pob_Muj%_Pob_Ext%_Pob_Sin_Estudios

1112986.88040737215.413300186515.413300186554.008701056629.459291485411.4978247359

1216572.363414300317.063663923814.551754006151.10437418815.851017756612.4729320052

1312410.726677071731.665832916512.656328164155.677838919515.207603801919.3596798399

1442889.727515627913.963210702319.816053511752.926421404731.438127090311.9565217391

1546795.98638489279.090909090920.805369127551.738865161732.763880414917.5716900549

1611242.586863098513.91529818519.706136560151.771823681931.547104580815.2981849611

1710126.57357559259.631490787317.336683417150.16750418766.61641541048.7102177554

184445.87085138834.489623041122.99872935251.58831003813.30368487933.9390088945

1924117.09478755211.405055849519.576719576752.439741328611.81657848327.9952968842

2119378.020250437213.252094440214.927646610851.942117288719.95430312269.0632140137

226191.46751789313.883847549915.562613430150.680580762316.016333938310.2087114338

2324286.474630878513.978115072415.460642428551.853159195224.920578891612.2484998235

2414029.953249237411.924686192514.853556485450.557880055812.412831241314.2259414226

2523514.29689378512.820512820518.844118844151.607651607723.239723239713.6752136752

2637072.1661989199.603246167717.583408476151.12714156923.940486925213.5256988278

274346.50526764978.473992421616.844643472350.775060282510.47192559428.439545298

2826310.02563329939.849906191417.260787992552.110694183915.666041275814.3058161351

3119009.669299760214.227309893715.290269828350.776778413721.99509403118.9942763696

3210410.143001527111.721878412818.274481252351.547142337117.582817619210.0837277029

3323401.472624816112.183125236515.891032917150.624290578917.858494135511.7669315172

3411053.461584047920.210664911113.627386438451.481237656412.179065174513.6273864384

3515040.035106255513.210611802915.159718462452.138603140213.860314022720.1407688143

365952.629654773816.774541531818.392664509249.730312837119.525350593317.0981661273

3733897.64743214965.78703703725.289351851950.63657407418.21759259269.8958333333

382107.625061699218.786313750811.55584247952.67914783733.679793415115.3647514525

394214.52862165755.74350904818.489378442250.98347757675.7435090485.2714398112

31011090.07156169415.642766228323.971149766751.80313958427.80653372937.2125583369

419009.277148655518.05128205131251.384615384619.589743589715.1794871795

424779.958704046213.898305084712.81355932250.983050847514.169491525416.2711864407

4310368.793596391714.045307443415.663430420750.226537216816.56957928811.067961165

442271.08261083823.487213550327.76486217250.946529392211.19229491862.1587512454

452734.03919726053.834355828228.041922290450.613496932516.33435582822.7607361963

Normalización

DistritoSecciónN_DenPobN_%PobEnvN_%PobJovN_%PobMujN_%PobExtN_%PobSinEst

110.24344717560.42323175880.23398271460.71935594060.88782868310.5193562655

120.32368021390.48179970060.18172370640.23103073980.42590799720.5735830654

130.230554473510.066752417710.40406788570.9565627733

140.91258889890.37177112960.50104155310.53738453990.95499848860.5448649161

1510.19886338180.56105070180.337712234810.8571306724

160.20441478570.3700708150.49437429480.3432537860.95869763210.7306985251

170.17944154310.21804749040.35064982120.07350810140.11244767630.3643343404

180.05232337280.03557340680.69409386610.312398327500.0990021082

190.49251010940.28098758840.48652421860.4555555460.28896256280.3245767955

210.3864629330.34653510750.2045243120.37188646520.56519035060.383964855

220.09138492290.3689546980.2430396430.15977532710.43151950720.4476672408

230.49630035460.37230005440.23685436410.35692930620.73376614170.5611021422

240.26678821590.29942817750.200030210.13914478170.30920182970.6710698692

250.47902118580.33121918250.44208668460.31565036360.67671099930.6404432865

260.78240821780.21704514820.36561548080.2348587820.70049779610.6321285995

270.05009985020.17697030530.32080403920.1756608430.24331952270.3492819439

280.5415817420.22579859430.34604621470.40023050150.41962913590.6755117908

310.37822027340.3811434550.22652003340.17594972470.63446317350.3801311559

320.18578703030.29223095550.40753404390.30547650820.48469239530.4407167565

330.47649649560.30859963620.26296066060.15031085690.49404998820.5343215929

340.20018269320.5934801540.12565412660.29439548390.30126684950.6377835607

350.28939101060.34506297580.21860114860.40492303350.35833533861

360.08604040240.47153935430.414702713300.55062994050.83079748

370.71137140470.08161590380.8330366910.15237616860.16679820430.4302677416

3800.542932923800.49580867060.0127666680.7344003617

390.04714658350.08007118690.4205691130.21070352990.08281765020.1731000737

3100.20100192160.07649603590.75307819870.34851915210.15284517870.2810478342

410.15443958750.5168481930.02694136670.27814969190.55281570320.7240976094

420.05979932050.36946776560.07628962480.21063178080.36883009260.7848082197

430.18486174680.37468457040.24915492270.08343374590.4502989260.4954510741

440.003657720800.98319429960.2044911680.26777181540

450.01401738880.012319350110.14849604410.44231447590.0334770528

Pesos_Indicadores

Indicador%Peso

Densidad de población50.05

Población envejecida300.3

Población joven250.25

Población mujeres100.1

Población extranjera100.1

Población sin estudios200.2

IVS

DistritoSecciónIVS

390.1954931

180.2378519

270.2475515

170.2535112

440.2932078

450.3201731

220.3246785

3100.3276145

240.3322241

430.3364007

210.3449154

310.3469516

420.3478105ValorIVS

330.35344530,5Muy Alto

120.3865653

410.3974278

280.3984185

340.4065897

260.4155992

230.4170086

350.4489646

250.4611633

110.4622273

360.470662

160.5211704

140.5406325

150.555119

130.6599352

LorenzoArchivo adjuntoANEXOII_BaseDeDatosAranjuez.xlsx

ANEXO III: FLUJOS DE TRABAJO.

LEYENDA

Tabla de atributos (ArcMap)

Caja de herramientas (ArcMap)

Añadir capa (ArcMap)

Tabla de contenidos (ArcMap)

Seleccionar sistema de coordenadas (MicroStation)

Capa de entrada Capa de salida Capa

intermedia

Más opciones Opciones de

herramienta

Acción:

Herramientas

(Tools), Tabla

de Contenidos

(TOC)…

1. ArcMap: Entorno de trabajo.

2. MicroStation: Georreferenciación.

3. ArcMap: Limpieza del plano.

4. Excel: Construcción de la Base de Datos y cálculo del IVS.

5. ArcMap: Representación en la base cartográfica.

6. ArcMap: Cruce del IVS con los mapas de peligrosidad.

7. > Google Earth: presentación gráfica de los mapas finales.

LorenzoArchivo adjuntoANEXOIII_FlujosDeTrabajo.pdf

01EBBE850E6249ADB370CBE12719FDAA.xsl

http://

doc.kml

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FID

0

Area_Ha

30,157724

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0,301577

FID1

26

Distrito

3

Seccion

9

Poblacion

1271

Edad_16

235

Edad_16_69

963

Edad_69

73

Hombres

623

Mujeres

648

Españoles

1198

Extranjero

73

Sin_Estudi

67

Densidad_P

4214,528622

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8

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1549

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179

Edad_16_69

1079

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291

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733

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816

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1492

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57

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238

Densidad_P

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F__Pob_Muj

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FID

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Area_Ha

21,253347

Area_km2

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FID1

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Distrito

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10

Poblacion

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Edad_16

565

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133

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Densidad_P

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Documents

UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID · 2019-10-10 · ANALYSIS OF FLOOD RISK IN THE MIDDLE – HIGH TAJO RIVER AT ITS PASSES THROUGH ARANJUEZ (MADRID). Mora Aguado, Lorenzo SEPTIEMBRE