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Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography: the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid & Universidad de santiago de Compostela (PRUDENCE PROJECT). CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Agricultural impact studies in areas of complex orography:
the need for high resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid&
Universidad de santiago de Compostela
(PRUDENCE PROJECT)
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
PRUDENCE PROJECTPrediction Uncertainties Describing
European Climate change and Effects
M. Inés Mínguez, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, Miguel Quemada and Federico Sau
IT: Daniel del Valle Sergio de Gruijter UPM & USC
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
RCMs
A2 & B2 SCENARIOS (SRES)
FORCING
Agricultural Impact (Crop Models)
AGCMs
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
RCMs in PRUDENCE
• Comparison among 9 RCMs • Forcing with 1 RGM: HadAM3H (less in
Arpège RCM which has it’s own forcing s.)
• 2 climate change scenarios: A2 & B2
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
RCMs in PRUDENCE
1. HadRM3H (HC: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research)
2. RegCM (ICTP: The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physiscs) 3. CHRM (ETH: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
4. RACMO (KNMI: The Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute)
5. ARPÈGE (MF: Meteo France)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
RCMs in PRUDENCE
6. CLM (GKSS: GKSS FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM; Institute for Coastal Research)
7. REMO (MPI: Max Planck Institute for Meteorological Research)
8. PROMES (UCM: Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
9. HIRHAM (DMI: Danish Meteorological Institute)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop models used in PRUDENCE
• Physiological type models: DSSAT3.5-CERES (mechanistic model; Jones et. al., 2003)
• Cropping system-type model: CropSyst(simpler model; Stockle et al., 2003)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Non-linear response in both types.
Compensating effects of climate change reflected in models
• CO2 increase (for a given T) – Increase in photosynthetic rates– Decrease in Transpiration rates (ET)
• T increase - Increase in evapotranspiration (ET) - Shorter crop cycles (thermal time)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop models used in PRUDENCE
INPUTS:• Daily weather data: SR, Tmax, Tmin, P (Optional: VPD, wind speed)
• Soil profile caracteristicsLL, DUL & SAT (for each soil layer)
• Species charaterisitics (eg wheat) and variety (eg cv. Anza, Marius) Genetic coefficients that allow to define thousands of genotypes
• Soil initial conditions (soil water content)
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
Crop simulations• Climate change impact assessment
- Use of winter (wheat) vs summer crops (maize) to discriminate between seasons
- Crop management (Irrigated and Rainfed) for changing uncertainty levels
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
Adding Uncertainties• from the RCMs predictions
• from the crop models per se
• from the extrapolation of crop models, tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain
• soil profiles (DUL, LL, SAT and depth)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Changing uncertainty levels
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
Greater uncertainty level: rain-fed systems
• Rainfall data• Soil profiles: LL, DUL, SAT, depth• Initial soil conditions
• Crop responses to water stress
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Smaller uncertainty level: irrigated systems (if water
available)
• Potential yield simulation (elimination of water stress)
• Spatial variability in soil textures and depth has much less influence in yield
• Rainfall predictions do not affect yields Effect of Tmax, Tmin and SR
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop model calibration and validation has to focus on the main processes involved at crop and cropping systems level
• phenology, biomass and yield• ETc and net irrigation requirements
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Spatial scales with impact models
• Crop model calibration and validation: Site-specific
Some agricultural areas outside the calibration (validation)
• Crop models generate data within the range recorded by MAPYA
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
34 soil groups specific profiles
Soil data base:
PROMES land-grids
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
Species/cvs for season discrimination
• Autumn-winter-spring for winter (cv. Marius) and spring wheat (cv. Anza) rainfed and irrigated (ETmax) Sow. 15 october
• Spring-summer maize (irrigated)
Sow. 15 April; 15 May; 1 June
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Filters• Varieties (CVs) with different cold
requirements for flower induction: spring (Anza) vs winter (Marius) cultivars
enhancing the important differences
in T (Tmin) in winter
Winter wheat: vernalization needs have to be fulfilled.
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Simulations• Current: 1960-1990
• A2 or B2: 2070-2100
Outputs: average of 30 years (current & A2 or B2)
Results are presented in maps:
A2 or B2/Current (%) or Relative Yield (%)
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
REMO winter wheat rain-fedCERES
C ro p fa ilu res
A 2 /co nt r o l R e la tiv e Y ie ld (% )< 5 050 - 7 070 - 9 090 - 1 1011 0 - 13 013 0 - 15 015 0 - 20 0> 2 0 0
A2/crtl
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
REMO winter wheat irrigatedCERES
C ro p fa ilu res
A 2 /cu rre n t R e la tiv e Y ie ld (% )< 5 050 - 7 070 - 9 090 - 1 1011 0 - 13 013 0 - 15 015 0 - 20 0> 2 0 0
A2/crtlAgricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
HadAM3H A2driving conditions
Relative yield CERES- Spring Wheat (DSSAT)
IrrigatedSowing date: 15 october
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
HadAM3H (HC)CERES-Spring Wheat
C ro p fa ilu res
A 2 /cu rre n t R e la tiv e Y ie ld (% )< 5 050 - 7 070 - 9 090 - 1 1011 0 - 13 013 0 - 15 015 0 - 20 0> 2 0 0
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
RegCM (ICTP)CERES-Spring Wheat
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
CHRM (ETH)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
RACMO (KNMI)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
ArpègeCERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
CLM (GKSS)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
HadRM3H (HadleyC)CERES-Spring Wheat
C ro p fa ilu res
A 2 /cu rre n t R e la tiv e Y ie ld (% )< 5 050 - 7 070 - 9 090 - 1 1011 0 - 13 013 0 - 15 015 0 - 20 0> 2 0 0
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
REMO (MPI)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
PROMES (UCM)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
HIRHAM (DMI)CERES-Spring Wheat
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Yield (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Irrigated
A2
Crop model
• Differences between the two crop models outputs exist:
CERES-DSSAT discriminates more among polygons
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Crop failures
B2/current Relative Irrigation (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Crop failures
A2/current Relative Irrigation (%)< 5050 - 7070 - 9090 - 110110 - 130130 - 150150 - 200> 200
Changes in irrigation requirements for maize
A2 PROMES B2
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
MAIZE irrigated (kg/ha)
HIRHAM HIRHAM high
Córdoba Avg CV Avg CVXerorthent Control 8837 11 8122 12
A2 2893 84 6681 13Rel(%) 33 82
Chromoxerert Control 8497 14 4645 46
A2 2891 84 6223 16Rel(%) 35 134
50 km vs 25 kmAgricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Some conclusions
• Regions/areas show similar yield trends in many RCM models
• Influence in rainfed crops of Tmin vs rainfall• All models detect winter vs spring wheat • Higher resolution: more differences among soil
polygons
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Still working on:
• A2, B2 scenarios
• 50 km vs 25 km (grid)
• Other forcings: try different GCMs with the same RCM.
THANK YOU
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography
CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
SpWheatKg/ha
SR HadAM3H PROMES RegCMM CV M CV M CV
Navarra42ºN500 m2074 (53)
Ctl 3530 43 663 32 6337 44A2 4821 42 1466 33 8678 26B2 -- 1096 47 7330 37
Valladolid41º N400 m 1533 (60)
Ctl 3480 53 1050 44 5432 40A2 5918 37 2200 36 4000 72B2 --- 2226 37 4127 64
Córdoba38ºN 120 m3047 (39)
Ctl 627 39 219 77 3264 55A2 1720 58 793 66 3997 72B2 ---- 472 74 4127 64CAgM EXPERT TEAM MEETING, Geneva 15-18 Nov. 2004
Agricultural Impact studies in areas of complex orography