Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
University of West GeorgiaUniversity of West GeorgiaTrends and ForecastsTrends and Forecasts
Institutional Research and Institutional Research and PlanningPlanning
Topics of DiscussionTopics of Discussion
Current space utilization trendsCurrent space utilization trends
Trend data on freshmen who do not return Trend data on freshmen who do not return to UWGto UWG
Enrollment trends and forecastsEnrollment trends and forecasts
Headcount of Students By Class Start T ime - Monday
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Housing Students Non-Housing Students
Headcount of Students By Class Start T ime - Tuesday
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Housing Students Non-Housing Students
Headcount of Students By Class Start T ime - Wednesday
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Housing Students Non-Housing Students
Headcount of Students By Class Start T ime - Thursday
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Housing Students Non Housing Students
Headcount of Students By Class Start T ime - Friday
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Series1 Series2
One Measure for Space UtilizationOne Measure for Space Utilization
Calculate current student/chair or Calculate current student/chair or student/square ft. ratio by department student/square ft. ratio by department using semester headcount datausing semester headcount dataCreate an Average Departmental Ratio Create an Average Departmental Ratio (ADR) by using the current calculated ratio (ADR) by using the current calculated ratio and/or developing an aspirational ratioand/or developing an aspirational ratioCompare the ADR to daily or hourly usage Compare the ADR to daily or hourly usage to determine the adequacy of to determine the adequacy of departmental spacedepartmental space
Example of Space Utilization Example of Space Utilization MeasureMeasure
ADR
Significantly Higher than Average (at or near capacity)
Higher Than Average
Lower Than Average
Significantly Lower than Average (under-utilization of space)
GPA Distribution of Freshman Cohort Non-ReturnersAs a percent of entire freshman cohort
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3.00 OR GREATER 2.00 TO 2.99 BELOW 2.00
Total UWG Enrollment ForecastDamped Trend Exponential Smoothing
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
Actual Predicted U95 L95
10,358
12,450
Total UWG Enrollment ForecastRegression Model Based On Previous Summer's Enrollment
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Actual Predicted U95 L95
10,405
Long Range ForecastUsing Percentage Change as Regressor
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
Actual Predicted U95 L95
10,487
12,648
Freshman EnrollmentRegression Model Using KSU Enrollment, VSU Enrollment, and GA.
Population as Predictors
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Actual Predicted U95 L95
1,807
FindingsFindings
Classroom space is not being effectively Classroom space is not being effectively utilized throughout the day (especially on utilized throughout the day (especially on Friday)Friday)On average, about 15 percent of all On average, about 15 percent of all freshmen who leave UWG have a GPA of freshmen who leave UWG have a GPA of 2.0 or higher2.0 or higherUWG fall 07 total enrollment projections UWG fall 07 total enrollment projections average about 10,400 students. Fall 07 average about 10,400 students. Fall 07 freshmen projections are 1,807.freshmen projections are 1,807.
