Unlocking Asian Borders for New Avenue to Revenue Pacific Telecommunications Council Honolulu, Hawaii January 18, 2016 Abu Saeed Khan Senior Policy Fellow LIRNEasia A miracle had happened in 1997 Oslo 2006 Asia keeps Telenor solvent. But how long? Source: Telenor Group Q3 15 Financial Reports. Ericsson Mobility Report November 2015 Is Asia ready for 2021? Spectrum is critical for GSM/EDGE. Spectrum and Internet are, however, equally critical for WCDMA/HSPA, LTE/5G. International connectivity is the lifeline of IP Transit, Cloud, CDN, Data Centers, Peering etc. Carriers are centralized in SG and HK. IP Transit is disproportionately expensive in the region. Major regulatory roadblocks in Asia: Spectrum lacks technology-neutrality (Demand-side problem). Cross-border connectivity only through submarine cables (Supply-side problem). No carrier-neutral submarine cable, cable landing stations, gateways, metro and domestic TX networks. Asia vs. Europe: Median monthly IP Transit prices per Mbps, 10 GigE, Q2 2015 ITUs Measuring the Information Society Report 2015 (Selected Asian economies) 669X 103X Akamai state of the Internet Q3 2015 Broadband inequality across Asia Pacific Tale of two continents: Akamai reveals the qualitative difference Farewell to segregation: Technology has democratized global connectivity Courtesy: Ciena Submarine networks = Terrestrial networks Coastal countries = Landlocked countries Terrestrial link Submarine cable Infrastructure dictates bandwidth price ..price levels vary by region and between terrestrial and subsea deployments. Upgrades to 100Gbps equipment on terrestrial networks have been rapid in recent years as bandwidth demand has increased, and European and intra-US terrestrial routes exhibit the lowest 100Gbps prices globally. Source: TeleGeography. 100G: are the potential savings worth the investment? 4 Jun G: are the potential savings worth the investment? Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia. Infrastructure is all about right-of-way Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways. Worlds most resilient right-of-way Asian Highway has linked 32 countries. A cross-border meshed network is to be built. Target: Open-access Diversity and Redundancy to all submarine cables linking Asia with Europe, and USA, through a Terrestrial Consortium. Let the offshore and on-shore traffic blend. Lower latency with better packet delivery at lesser cost. No regulatory disruption. Only the licensed carriers will access the Asian Information Highway. Internet in Asia will be similar to or cheaper than the EU. There will be higher ROI in FTTx. Mobile broadband (4G/5G) will grow like 2G voice. Smart devices and Wi-Fi offload will accelerate the data growth. Investments in Transpacific cables will increase. Is Asia-Africa-LatAm the possible next long-haul route? More international and domestic PoPs will emerge. Landlocked countries will have bandwidth at equal cost. Sub-regional telecoms initiatives (GMS-IS and SASEC) have failed to deliver. Pacific islands will enjoy reduced bandwidth cost in the mainland. International Gateway reforms will be accelerated. Usage of submarine cables purchased capacity will be maximized. Carriers will commit longer contracts. Impacts Carriers unfettered access to Asian market New kids on the block. Whos next? Google: Unity (2010), SJC (2013), FASTER (2016)*, COTA (2016). Microsoft: Hibernia Express (2015), AEConnect (2015), NCP (2015), Seabras-1 (2016). Facebook: APG (2015). *Equinix From LION (2012) to AP-IS (2015) LIRNEasia has proposed Longest International Optical Network (LION) along Asian Highway. ESCAP has engaged Terabit Consulting to study Asias state of broadband and connectivity. LIRNEasia was tasked to review Terabits reports and write a Policy Document. LIRNEasia has strongly recommended deploying fiber along Asian Highway for an open access network. ESCAP rebranded LION as Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS). It also proposes to amend the AH agreement to accommodate optical fiber. Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways. PTC should join AP-IS Working Group of ESCAP Thank you Abu Saeed Khan