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UNSD/STATISTICS KOREA International Seminar on Population and Housing Censuses: Beyond the 2010 Round Seoul, 27-29 November 2012 Beyond 2011: The future of population statistics in the UK? A report from the UK’s Beyond 2011 Programme Ian White, Office for National Statistics, UK. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UNSD/STATISTICS KOREA
International Seminar on Population and Housing Censuses: Beyond the 2010 Round
Seoul, 27-29 November 2012
Beyond 2011: The future of population statistics in the UK?
A report from the UK’s Beyond 2011 Programme
Ian White, Office for National Statistics, UK
Beyond the 2010 round
• Context - why change?
• Statistical options – what are the alternatives?
• Timescale – how long will it take to get there?
• Risks and issues – what could go wrong?
Beyond the 2010 round
Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?
Beyond the 2010 round
Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?• Rapidly changing society
Beyond the 2010 round
Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?• Rapidly changing society
• Evolving user requirements
Beyond the 2010 round
Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?• Rapidly changing society• Evolving user requirements
• New opportunities for data sharing
Beyond the 2010 round
Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?• Rapidly changing society• Evolving user requirements• New opportunities for data sharing
• Traditional census is costly and infrequent
Programme purpose
• Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future
• Provide a recommendation in 2014- underpinned by full cost-benefit analysis- high level design for implementation
• Implement the recommendation (subject to agreement)
Beyond 2011 : Statistical options
Aggregate analysis
100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’
(Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes
Address register + Survey
Administrativedata options
Traditional Census (long form to everyone)
Long form (sample) , Short form (everyone else)
Short form + Annual Survey (US model)
Rolling Census ( (over 5/10 year period)
Censusoptions
Surveyoption(s)
CENSUSPopulation Data
Socio demographic
Attribute Data
CoverageAssessment
incl. under & over-coverage- by survey and admin data?
Socio demographic
Survey(s)
SOURCESFRAME DATA ESTIMATION OUTPUTS
Admin Source
Population estimates
Address
Register
Household
CommunalEstablishments
Adjusting formissing data and error
Adjusting for non responsebias in survey (or sources)
Surveys to fill gaps
Commercial sources?
Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for
population data & surveys
All National to Small Area
Admin Source
Admin Source
Comm Source
increasing later?
Attribute estimates
Population distribution provides weighting
for attributes
InteractionalAnalysis
E.g. TTWA
Longitudinaldata
Household structure etc
??
Qualitymeasurement
Beyond 2011 – statistical options
Potential key data sources
Population data • National Health Service Patient Register• Tax and Pensions Customer Information System • Electoral Register (> 17 years)• Higher Education Statistics Agency data (students)• School Census (5-16 years)• Vital registrations (births, deaths, marriages)
• DVLA (driving licenses)
Potential key data sources
Socio-demographic data • Surveys• Public utilities• TV Licensing• DVLA• eBordersand• Commercial sources ???
Major statistical challenges
• No population register• Data quality
Incomplete
Out of date
Duplicates / erroneous entries
• Little reliable population attribute data in administrative data sources
Þ Coverage survey requiredÞ Attribute survey required
Higher Education StudentsCustomer Information SystemCoverage Of Main Administrative Sources
Extras includes:Some duplicatesInternational students on short-term coursesStudents ceased studying, not formally deregistered
Extras includes:Short-term migrant children
Missing includes: Under 17s Ineligible votersNon responders
Missing includes: Non school aged peopleIndependent school childrenHome schooled children
Missing includes:
Some migrant worker dependants
Some international students
Undocumented asylum seekers
Missing includes: Migrants not (yet) registeredNewborn babiesSome private only patients
Missing includes:Non higher education studentsIndependent University students
Extras includes:Some duplicatesSome ex-patsSome deceasedShort-term migrants
Extras includes:Multiple registrationsSome ex-patsSome deceased Short-term migrants
Extras includes:Some ex-patsSome deceasedShort-term migrants
Missing includes: Non-driversUnder 17’sSome foreign-licence holders
Extras includes:Some ex-patsSome deceased
UK Driving Licence
Resident PopulationCIS
PRD
Electoral RollPatient Register DataSchool Census
SCER SC
ER
DVLADVLA
HESA
CISPRD
DWP CIS population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates
Patient Register population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates
Electoral Roll population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
populationestimates
populationcharacteristics
outputs
detaileddesign
procure /develop
develop /test
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
detaileddesign develop test rehearse run outputs
CENSUS SOLUTION
2011 2012 2013 2014
research /definition
initiation
BEYOND 2011‘Phase 1’
2014 Recommendation& decision point
Beyond 2011 - Timeline - the key decision
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
populationestimates
populationcharacteristics
outputs
detaileddesign
procure /develop
develop /test
2011 2012 2013 2014
research /definition
initiation
2024
addressregister
adminsources
required on an ongoing basis – ideally the National Address Gazetteer – subject to confirmation of quality
public sector & commercial ?
developing over time
coveragesurveys testing continuous assessment
attributesurveys
info from existing surveys – e.g. labour force survey, integrated household survey etc
supplemented by new targeted surveys as required
modelling increasing modelling over time
Beyond 2011 - Timeline (non census solution)
test
linkageincreasing linkage over time
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 20352024 2025 2026 2036
address register required on an ongoing basis
administrative sources will change and disappear and be added & develop over time
continuous coverage survey
existing surveys
increasing linkage over time
increasing modelling over time
need for attribute surveys declines over time ?
2037 2038
regular production of population and attribute estimatesongoing methodology refinement
Beyond 2011 - and into the future
Improving quality & quantity
accuracy of population estimates
accuracy of characteristics estimates
range of topics
small area detail
multivariate small area detail
experimental statistics develop to become national statistics
2013 2031 2021
Statistical benefit profile
2011 2021 2031 2041
Ben
efit
Census Alternativemethod
loss
gain
loss
gain
Cost profile (real terms)
2011 2021 2031 2041
Cos
t
Census
???Alternative method
Evaluation criteria
• Costs• Quality/benefits
Accuracy
Frequency
Geographic detail
• Legislative requirements• Risk• Public acceptability/burden – public
consultation
Key risks of non census alternatives
• Public opinionPublic acceptability research, open consultation and transparency of
approach
• Technical challenge – cutting edge…. a big changeBuilding high quality team, talking to experts and strong external assurance
• Changes in administrative datasetsBuilding resilient solutions – but may need legislation
• Ensuring decision making – getting political buy-inThis is a big decision – needs real commitment
• Devolved issues/harmonisation of UK outputsEstablishment of UK Beyond 2011 Committee