2010 International Tourism Results and Prospects for 2011

UNWTO News Conference HQ, Madrid, Spain17 January 2011

John G.C. KesterTourism Trends and Marketing Strategies

Programme

2010: Multi-speed recovery

International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010*

528561

586602

626

675 675695 684

755

795

839

894913

877

935

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 2000 2005 2010*

mill

ion

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010*

+6.7%-4.0%+2.1%

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010*

Advanced economies

Emerging economies

International tourist arrivals by country of destination

050

100150200250300350400450500550

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*

millio

n

advanced economiesemerging economies

Source: World Tourism Organization

Growth driven by emerging destinations

International tourist arrivals by country of destination

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*

shar

e (%

) advanced economiesemerging economies

Source: World Tourism Organization

Growth driven by emerging destinations

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-5-3

-10

-4 -3

1

-2-3

-6

-3

-7

-2

3 4

-6

5 42

14 12

6

108

4

810

6 7

14

-0.1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Central/Eastern Europe

Southern/Mediter. Eu

North-East A

siaSouth-East A

siaOceania

South AsiaNorth

AmericaCaribbean

Central AmericaSouth America

North Afric

aSubsaharan Afric

aMiddle East

09*/08 2010*

Multi-speed recovery

Is it just a ‘dead cat bounce’ or a real new up-trend?

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

2007200820092010*

2010: 935 mn2009: 877 mn => 2010: +58 mn2008: 913 mn => 2010: +22 mn

2010 compared to pre-crisis peak year 2008International Tourist Arrivals (% change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-5.5

1.9

-6.3-1.6

10.6 12.74.2

7.5

0.7 0.3

7.8 8.4 10.77.5

1.52.5

-10-505

1015

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

peCent

ral/East

ern E...

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSout

h-East

Asia

Oceania

South A

siaNorth

America

Caribbea

nCent

ral Americ

aSout

h Americ

aNorth

Africa

Subsaha

ran Afric

aMidd

le East

International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008, million)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-3.1

2.9

-6.3 -2.8

10.8 7.90.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.4 2.9 4.2

22.4

1.5

-10-505

1015202530

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

peCent

ral/East

ern E...

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSout

h-East

Asia

Oceania

South A

siaNorth

America

Caribbea

nCent

ral Americ

aSout

h Americ

aNorth

Africa

Subsaha

ran Afric

aMidd

le East

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

T1 T2'03

T3 T1 T2'04

T3 T1 T2'05

T3 T1 T2'06

T3 T1 T2'07

T3 T1 T2'08

T3 T1 T2'09

T3 T1 T2'10

T3 T1 T2'11

T3

Prospects

Evaluation

Confidence confirmed

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

150 144 140 137 132

71

131 138119

144 140 136 143

98

72

140

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Prospects (before)Evaluation (after)

Confidence confirmed

International Tourist Arrivals

8.0

-0.1

3.0

-1.6

10.3

5.4 5.56.6

-4.0

2.1

6.7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011*

Forecast 2011: 4% to 5%

Outlook 2011ch

ange

(%)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

2010 Forecast 2011

World +6.7% 4% to 5%

Europe +3.2% 2% to 4%

Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9%

Americas +7.7% 4% to 6%

Africa +6.4% 4% to 7%

Middle East +13.9% 7% to 10%

International Tourism 2011 –Forecast

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourist Arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

millio

n

Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2010*

1.0 bn

877 mn

1.6 bn

Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision ForecastWorld

534 mn

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

935 mn

John KesterTourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org