Update ~ Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council

12 August 2008

Conference of Arctic ParliamentariansFairbanks, Alaska

Lawson W. Brigham

Vice Chair, PAME & Chair, AMSA

U.S. Arctic Research Commission ~ Anchorage

Major Topics for the Conference

• Arctic Sea Ice Changes ~ Comments

• Today’s Arctic Marine Use

• AMSA ~ Focus, Workshops & Report

• AMSA ~ Ship Data, Scenarios• AMSA ~ Ship Data, Scenarios

• Major Challenges ~ Arctic States

• Recommendations

AMSA ~ www.pame. is

11 September 2007

1 January 20071 January 2007 1 March 20071 March 2007

Winter &

1 April 20071 April 2007 1 June 20071 June 2007

Winter & Spring Months

2007

Se

a Ic

e E

xte

nt

(mil

lio

n k

m2)

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

Se

a Ic

e E

xte

nt

(mil

lio

n k

m2)

Sea IceSea Ice

• Extent

decrease decrease is largest is largest duringduringsummersummer

•• Extent Extent

decrease decrease is largest is largest sincesince

Se

a Ic

e E

xte

nt

(mil

lio

n k

m

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Se

a Ic

e E

xte

nt

(mil

lio

n k

m

Chapman & Walsh (2007)

sincesincelate 1980slate 1980s

•• Extent Extent

seasonal seasonal decreases decreases sincesince1950s1950s

10 August 2007 10 August 2008

Source: University of Illinois – The Cryosphere Today

Northern Sea Route

Northwest Passage

Central Arctic Ocean Route

CHALLENGES & RISKS

Choke Point

Draft

Draft

Sea Ice

Arctic Marine Geography

DraftSea Ice

Cold Climate

Ice-Free OpsMULTIPLE ROUTES &

MODESIntra-Arctic Route

Today’s Arctic Marine Use

Zinc & Coal

•Hard Minerals

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Today’s Arctic Marine Use

Zinc & Coal

•Hard Minerals

•Marine Tourism

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Today’s Arctic Marine Use

Zinc & Coal

•Hard Minerals

•Marine Tourism

•Major Fisheries

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Today’s Arctic Marine Use

Zinc & Coal

•Hard Minerals

•Marine Tourism

•Major Fisheries

•Oil & Gas

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Today’s Arctic Marine Use

•Hard Minerals

•Marine Tourism

•Major Fisheries

•Oil & Gas

•Summer Sealift

Zinc & Coal

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Today’s Arctic Marine Use•Hard Minerals

•Marine Tourism

•Major Fisheries

•Oil & Gas

•Summer Sealift

•Exploration/Science

Zinc & Coal

High Grade

Iron Ore??

Nickel &

Copper

Arctic CouncilArctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA)

• Reykjavik Declaration, 4th Ministerial (Nov 2004)

• “ Request PAME to conduct a comprehensive

Arctic marine shipping assessment as outlined in

the AMSP under the guidance of Canada, Finland, the AMSP under the guidance of Canada, Finland,

and the United States as lead countries and in

collaboration with the EPPR working group and

other working groups of the Arctic Council and

Permanent Participants as relevant.”

• Lead Countries: Canada, Finland, and USA

• Key Countries & Regions: Norway & Russia (Norwegian-Barents-Kara seas), Iceland, Denmark-Greenland-Faroe Islands, Sweden

• Timeline: 2005 – 2009 (Completion April 2009)

• Electronic Survey ~ 2004 Data Collection from the Arctic States

Arctic Council, PAME-led Arctic Marine

Shipping Assessment

• Electronic Survey ~ 2004 Data Collection from the Arctic States

• Arctic Town Hall Meetings ~ Permanent Participants

• Foci ~ Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection

• Inclusive Participation: Member States, Permanent Participants, Council Working Groups; Council Observers; Shipping Industry; Ship Classification Societies; Research Organizations; Others ~ Key Challenge: Many Non-Arctic Stakeholders

Arctic Climate Impact AssessmentArctic Climate Impact AssessmentKey Finding #6: “Reduced sea ice is very likely to Key Finding #6: “Reduced sea ice is very likely to

increase marine transport and access to increase marine transport and access to resources.”resources.”

Arctic Marine Strategic Plan ~ PAME

Linkages to Previous Arctic Council Work

AMSA Financial Contributors• Aker Arctic Technology

• BP Shipping

• Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada

• Indian and Northern Affairs Canada

• Institute of the North (Anchorage)

• Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland

• Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs• Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

• Transport Canada

• U.S. Arctic Research Commission

• U.S. Coast Guard

• U.S. Department of State

• U.S. NOAA

>160 Experts (Government, Permanent Participants, NGOs,

Industry, Academics, Consultants)

~ ~

AMSA Expert & Stakeholder Workshops

• 7/06 - Banff, ICETECH 06 ~ AMSA Futures Sessions

• 3/07- Akureyri, Arctic Navigation Conference

• 4/07- San Francisco, AMSA Scenarios I

• 7/07- Helsinki, AMSA Scenarios II

• 11/07- Ottawa, Arctic Maritime Infrastructure

• 2/08 - St. Petersburg, NSR Partnership Futures• 2/08 - St. Petersburg, NSR Partnership Futures

• 3/08 - New Hampshire, USA, Arctic Marine Incidents

• 3/08 - Ottawa, Indigenous Arctic Marine Use

• 4/08 - San Francisco, Environmental Workshop

• 7/08 - Banff, ICETECH 08 ~ AMSA Sessions

• 9/08 - Planned, London, Marine Insurers

AMSA RESEARCH DOCUMENT (>1500pp) ~ Chapters

1 - Introduction & Arctic Marine Geography

2 - History of Arctic Marine Transport & Governance

3 - AMSA Database for 2004 ~ Ship Data & Analyses

4 - Human Dimension (AMSA Town Hall Meetings)

5 – Scenarios & Futures (2020 & 2050)

~ Scenario Narratives

~ 3 Regional Case Studies to 2020

6 - Environmental Impacts6 - Environmental Impacts

7 - Arctic Maritime Infrastructure

~ Arctic Marine Incidents Workshop (March 08)

~ Baltic Sea Case Study (Finland)

Findings and Research Agenda

AMSA 2009 Report (>125 pp) ~ Negotiated Document

Findings, Research Agenda, & Recommendations

The Maritime Arctic of Today

Modes of Arctic

Marine Transport• -Destinational &

Regional• -Trans-Arctic• -Trans-Arctic with

Transshipment

Snapshot of Summer 2004

Traffic

8 NP

3-Ship

Drilling

6 Research

Ships107

Voyages

5 NWP

Transits

0 NSR

Transits

165 Voyages

52 Ships

High Intensity

Fishing

Red Dog

Mine ~23

Noril’sk

Vessels ~ 5,475

Transshipment • -Intra-Arctic

8 NP Drilling

27 Cruise Ships

(53~2005)

(150~2006)

(200+ ~ 2007)

Transits

Hundreds of

TransitsHigh Intensity

Fishing

Noril’sk

Complex

Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole & Trans-Arctic Voyages (1977-2008):

•• 75 Transits to the North Pole (63 Russia, 5 Sweden, 3 USA, 2 Germany, 1 Canada, 1 Norway)

• Single Non-summer NP Voyage(Sibir Voyage May-June 1987)

• • 31 Ship Transits to the NP in 2004-2008

• 7 Trans-Arctic Voyages (1991, 1994, 1996, 2005)

25 May 1987Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir

‘A Walk Around the World!’

‘Clear Evidence of Central Arctic Ocean

Navigation’

Arctic Marine Incidents WorkshopUniversity of New Hampshire, 25-27 March 2008 ~ US NOAA Funded

Participants from: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Russia, South Africa, USA

Grounded Barge

with Explosives

Mobile Drilling Rig &

Support Ships ~

Collision/ Fire

Cruise Ship Grounding

Tanker & Fishing

Vessel Collision

Ore Carrier Sinking

UNH Workshop Common Outcomes

Mandatory IMO Arctic Ship Guidelines

Identification ~ Places of Refuge

Arctic Search & Rescue (SAR) Agreement

Enhanced Environmental Response

Improved Arctic Communications & Vessel RoutingImproved Arctic Communications & Vessel Routing

Expanded Environmental Monitoring (IPY Legacy)

Lack of Adequate Maritime Infrastructure

Arctic States & Cruise Ship Industry Summit ~ Concern

Arctic Communities Part of All Response Exercises

Environmental Risk Assessments ~ Coastal Seas

Increased R & D for Oil Spills in Ice

AMSA Scenarios Effort (2007) ~

Key Uncertainties

• Stable legal climate

• Radical change in global trade dynamics

• Climate change is more disruptive sooner

• Safety of other routes

• China and Japan become Arctic maritime nations

• Transit fees

• Conflict between indigenous & commercial use

• Arctic maritime enforcement

• Escalation of Arctic maritime • Socio-economic impact of global

weather changes

• Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)

• Major Arctic shipping disasters***

• Limited windows of operation (economics)

• Rapid climate change

• Maritime insurance industry

• Escalation of Arctic maritime disputes

• Shift to nuclear energy

• New resource discovery

• World trade patterns

• Catastrophic loss of Suez or Panama Canals

• Global agreements on construction rules and standards

“Stricken cruise ship off Antarctica

evacuated” MSNBC- 11/23/07

more demandmore demand

Arctic Race Arctic Saga

RE

SO

UR

CE

S

&

TR

AD

ER

ES

OU

RC

ES

&

TR

AD

EHigh demand and unstable

governance set the stage for

an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic wealth and resources.

High demand and stable

governance lead to a healthy rate of development, includes concern for preservation of

Arctic ecosystems & cultures.

Scenarios on the Future of

Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050

unstable unstable & ad& ad--hochoc

stable & stable & rulesrules--basedbased

less demandless demand

Polar Lows Polar Preserve

GOVERNANCEGOVERNANCE

RE

SO

UR

CE

S

&

TR

AD

ER

ES

OU

RC

ES

&

TR

AD

ELow demand and unstable

governance bring a murky and under-developed future

for the Arctic.

Low demand & stable

governance slow development in the region while introducing

an extensive eco-preserve with stringent “no-shipping zones”.

AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007

The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050

AMSA Regional Case Studies ~ 2020

Bowhead Whale Migrations & Arctic Marine Operations

Summer

Fall

Spring

‘Wild Card’ Issue 1 ~ Multiple Ocean Use

Management & Enforcement

Winter

Possible Arctic Shipping Routes

Arctic Ocean Choke Point

‘Wild Card’ Issue 2 ~ Arctic Ship Emissions

Unintended Consequences & Uncertain Regulation

New northern

passages could significantly boost

levels of low-lying

ozone as ship exhausts pump pollutants into the

pristine environment.

New Scientist22 July 2006

Emissions of nitrogen

oxides and carbon

monoxide from ships

could triple ozone levels, making them

comparable to those in

industrialized regions today.

U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008

–13% Undiscovered Oil

“Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of

Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle”

–13% Undiscovered Oil

–30% Undiscovered Natural Gas

–20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/

‘Wild Card’ Issue 3A ~ New Resource Discoveries

Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas

Fields

‘Wild Card’ Issue 3B ~ New Resource Discoveries

USGS (2008)

‘Wild Card’ Issue 4 ~ Technology

Future Convoy Requirements?

Icebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea

March 2006

Aker Arctic Technology

AMSA Experts View ~ Major Challenges• Uncertain International Regulations & Standards

• Pace of Arctic Natural Resource Development ~ Policy Response Timing?

• Lack of Adequate Maritime Infrastructure & Environmental Monitoring

• Concerns for Levels of Arctic Marine Training

• Tracking & Surveillance of Arctic Marine Activity• Tracking & Surveillance of Arctic Marine Activity

• Risks ~ Year-to-Year Variability of Arctic Sea Ice

• Complexity of Potential Environmental Impacts ~ Noise, Ship Emissions & Discharges

• Winter Sea Ice Cover Remains ~ Challenge of 2,100 Nautical Miles of Winter Ice Navigation

� CERTAINTY ~ Need for Greater Maritime Cooperation of the Arctic States

Recommendations

• Support the Work of the International Maritime Organization.

• Support Completion, Wide Dissemination and Implementation of AMSA’s Recommendations and Research Agenda.

• Encourage Arctic Infrastructure Investments by the Arctic States and Global Maritime Industry.the Arctic States and Global Maritime Industry.

• Support Development of a Comprehensive Arctic Search and Rescue (SAR) Agreement for Maritime and Aviation Regions (To be Executed by the Civil Maritime & Aviation Organizations in the 8 Arctic States).

The Maritime Arctic of the Future?

Summer2025??

Summer 2040??

Fishing

?

Tourism?NWP?

Improving Coastal Access

2007 to 2030+

2040??

Fishing

Summer

2020 ?

++ Tourism

Changing Nature of Multi-year Arctic Sea Ice

(Open Water)

Rigor & Wallace 2004

Today’s Maritime Arctic(200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone)

NM EEZ

(Macnab 2000)‘Wild Card’ Issue 3A

Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic

(After UNCLOS Article 76)

(Macnab 2000)‘Wild Card’ Issue 3B

NM EEZ

Aker Arctic Technology

Timeless Arctic Marine Transport

Tankers ~ Bulk CarriersContainer Ships ~Tug-Barge Combinations

Fishing Vessels ~ Ferries ~ Passenger Vessels/Cruise ShipsResearch Vessels ~ Offshore Supply Vessels

Icebreakers (Government & Commercial) ~ Others

Arctic Marine Vessel Activity ~ AMSA Ship Types