Update: NCHRP Synthesis Update: NCHRP Synthesis 20-05/Topic 40-06 Advanced 20-05/Topic 40-06 Advanced

Practices in Travel Practices in Travel ForecastingForecastingPresented to:

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group October 1-2, 2009

Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning

Presented by:

Guy RousseauAtlanta Regional Commission

MembershipMembershipRebekah Anderson, Ohio DOTBrian Gregor, Oregon DOTDanny Lamb, Florida DOTYali Li, Michigan DOTDoug MacIvor, California DOTPhillip Reeder, Texas A & M UniversityGuy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional CommissionSupin Yoder, FHWA LiaisonKen Cervenka, FTA LiaisonKim Fisher, TRB LiaisonNanda Srinivasan, TRB LiaisonSynthesis Staff: Jon Williams, TRBSynthesis P.I.: Bill Davidson & Rick Donnelly, PB

Schedule & Time-Table

Work Plan / Outline / QuestionnaireNov 15 2008

First Draft                                                May 12 2009

Second Draft                                           Sept 18 2009

Panel Teleconference Mid-Oct 2009      Final Draft Nov 2009

Publication Jan 2010

Background & MotivationBackground & MotivationTRB Special Report 288 calls for

...development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments (including GHG), evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, freight forecasts, and meeting federal and state regulatory requirements.

Background & MotivationBackground & Motivation

Workshop 127 of the 2008 TRB Annual Meeting featured presentations from 10 U.S. metropolitan areas that have advanced models in various stages of development, from full deployment to preliminary planning.

Goals/Objectives/ScopeGoals/Objectives/Scope

Compile experience and knowledge of advanced travel forecasting models that are operational or in the process of becoming operational

Focus on institutional issues associated with implementing models

Present a general description of technical aspects of the models

Included in the ScopeIncluded in the Scope• Tour / activity-based models• Land use & economic models • Traffic simulation models • Freight & commercial travel models • Statewide models• Integration of advanced models

components for one coherent practice

Case Studies from Draft # Case Studies from Draft # 22• San Francisco

• Sacramento, CA• Portland, OR• Lake Tahoe, NVInterviewed or Surveyed:Los Angeles, CASeattle, WAAtlanta, GAColumbus, OHNew York Metropolitan AreaDenver, COPhoenix, AZ