Update on Update on EURO-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX and

MED-CORDEX MED-CORDEX Filippo GiorgiFilippo Giorgi

Abdus Salam ICTPAbdus Salam ICTP

CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, 16-17 May, 2014

EURO-CORDEX Basics

Community and Models(Courtesy of A. Prein)(Courtesy of A. Prein)

EURO-CORDEX Basics

Specifications

• Spatial resolution:Spatial resolution:- - EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km)EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km)- - EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km)EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km)

• Driving GCMs: Driving GCMs: CMIP5CMIP5

• GHG scenarios:GHG scenarios:- - rcp4.5, rcp8.5rcp4.5, rcp8.5 (focus) (focus)- - rcp2.6rcp2.6 (few simulations) (few simulations)

• Periods:Periods:- Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – 2008- Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – 2008- Control: 1951 – 2005 - Control: 1951 – 2005 - Scenario: 2006 – 2100- Scenario: 2006 – 2100

Region (center of boundaries):Region (center of boundaries):~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E

(details: http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCD_CORDEX.html)(details: http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/SF_RCD_CORDEX.html)

EURO-CORDEX Basics

Status EURO-CORDEX Simulations

rcp26: 5rcp26: 5rcp45: 16 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp85: 21

rcp26: 5rcp26: 5rcp45: 16 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp85: 21

rcp26: 8rcp26: 8rcp45: 26 rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 rcp85: 26

rcp26: 8rcp26: 8rcp45: 26 rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 rcp85: 26

0.11° Simulations0.11° Simulations 0.44° Simulations0.44° Simulations

control: 22 control: 22

control: 22 control: 22

hindcast: 16hindcast: 16

hindcast: 16hindcast: 16

control: 32control: 32

control: 32control: 32

hindcast: 22hindcast: 22

hindcast: 22hindcast: 22

ΣΣ4242ΣΣ4242 ΣΣ6060

ΣΣ6060

EOBSEOBSCORDEX EUR-44CORDEX EUR-44

CORDEX EUR-11CORDEX EUR-11

ENSEMBLES maxENSEMBLES max

ENSEMBLES minENSEMBLES min

ENSEMBLES medianENSEMBLES median

ENSEMBLES p75ENSEMBLES p75

ENSEMBLES p25ENSEMBLES p25

““Standard” Evaluation Standard” Evaluation [Kotlarski et al., 2014][Kotlarski et al., 2014]

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

EvaluationEvaluation

• Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured

• Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,

• Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.

• Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured

• Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,

• Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.

Heat Waves Evaluation Heat Waves Evaluation [Vautard et al. 2013][Vautard et al. 2013]

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

EvaluationEvaluation

Bias of Bias of 90th 90th centilecentile

• Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths

• Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection

• No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution

• Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths

• Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection

• No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution

1. GCM Performance 1. GCM Performance [UNICAN, ETHZ, [UNICAN, ETHZ, UNIGRAZ, …]UNIGRAZ, …]

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

GCM EvaluationGCM Evaluation

CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performancesCMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances

No distinct outlierNo distinct outlier

No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversNo imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversfor the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.

CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performancesCMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances

No distinct outlierNo distinct outlier

No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversNo imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as driversfor the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.

Temprataure change [K]Temprataure change [K]

Pre

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[%]

Pre

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[%]

• 7 GCMs(MPI-ESM, CNRM-CM5, and EC-EARTH in 4 realizations each)

• Temperature change range fully sampled

• Extremely wet GCMs missing

2. Sampling 2. Sampling

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

GCM SelectionGCM Selection

EUR-11:EUR-11:

First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate Change Signals Change Signals [Jacob et al., 2013][Jacob et al., 2013]

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

Climate ProjectionsClimate Projections

• EUR-11 confirms earlier findingsEUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) (ENSEMBLES)• More spatial detailMore spatial detail• RCMs provide higher daily precipitation RCMs provide higher daily precipitation

intensities than GCMsintensities than GCMs

• EUR-11 confirms earlier findingsEUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) (ENSEMBLES)• More spatial detailMore spatial detail• RCMs provide higher daily precipitation RCMs provide higher daily precipitation

intensities than GCMsintensities than GCMs

Precipitation ChangePrecipitation Change

•Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) 0.11 simulations0.11 simulations

•Mean climate changeMean climate change

•Change in various indices relevant for Change in various indices relevant for Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) studiesstudies

•Results tested for robustness and significance Results tested for robustness and significance

User Interface Activities User Interface Activities

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

User InterfaceUser Interface

•Definition and analysis of Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices and ensemble-impact relevant indices and ensemble-based derived products based derived products (ongoing, results partly already available)(ongoing, results partly already available)

•Provision of Provision of a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset (ongoing)(ongoing)

•Inter-comparison of BC Methods Inter-comparison of BC Methods

•User guideline User guideline document (under development)document (under development)

EURO-CORDEX Basics

StatusAvailability for UsersAvailability for Users

• Data-AccessData-Access (similar to CMIP5):(similar to CMIP5):

•Connect to and register at Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodesone of the ESGF nodes

•Select project “CORDEX”Select project “CORDEX”

•Select domain “EUR-44”, Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”“EUR-11i”

• Data-AccessData-Access (similar to CMIP5):(similar to CMIP5):

•Connect to and register at Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodesone of the ESGF nodes

•Select project “CORDEX”Select project “CORDEX”

•Select domain “EUR-44”, Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”“EUR-11i”

Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their analysisanalysis

EURO-CORDEXEURO-CORDEX

StatusStatus

•7171 EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario simulations finished, ~100 planned in simulations finished, ~100 planned in totaltotal

•EUR-44 EUR-44 4040 simulations published on simulations published on ESGFESGF

•EUR-11 EUR-11 2424 simulations published on simulations published on ESGFESGF

Scientific goalsScientific goals

Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc)scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc)

Further understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interfaceFurther understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interface

Characterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycleCharacterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycle

Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5)Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5)

REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEMREGIONAL EARTH SYSTEMRegional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)

ARCM – ORCM - RiversARCM – ORCM - Rivers

High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasyHigh resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy

RESMRESM

Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE)

ARCM – ORCM - RiversARCM – ORCM - Rivers

High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasyHigh resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy

RESMRESM

MedCORDEX MedCORDEX (courtesy of P. Ruti)(courtesy of P. Ruti)

MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu

MedCORDEX – Portalwww.medcordex.eu

Med-QuestionsMed-Questions

• Geophysical sphereGeophysical sphere: Are we able to : Are we able to characterize extremes at local scale? Are characterize extremes at local scale? Are coupled processes so relevant?coupled processes so relevant?

• Impact sphereImpact sphere: Are we able to define : Are we able to define ecosystems tipping points?ecosystems tipping points?

Rainfall extremes

RCM 50 km RCM 50 km RCM 12 km RCM 12 km

Do the resolution matter?Do the resolution matter?

SON 1989-2008SON 1989-2008

99 percentile99 percentile

Rainfall extremes

Obs SafranObs Safran RCM 50 km RCM 50 km RCM 12 km RCM 12 km

SON 1989-2008SON 1989-2008

Extreme dynamicsTotal cyclone center density in SON and DJF.Total cyclone center density in SON and DJF.

…and the ocean … SSTSST

Ecosystem impacts

Ponti et al, 2014, PNASPonti et al, 2014, PNAS

Med-challengesMed-challenges

to develop a regional climate system considering and to develop a regional climate system considering and improving all the components from climate dynamics to improving all the components from climate dynamics to human behavior; human behavior;

to gather and organize observational data into tailored data to gather and organize observational data into tailored data set for climate process validation and for impact studies;set for climate process validation and for impact studies;

to increase the link with the groups working on the impact to increase the link with the groups working on the impact side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX initiative;initiative;

to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide detailed and actionable climate information. detailed and actionable climate information.

THANK YOUTHANK YOU