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Update on IEEE 1366Major Event Definition
Working Group on System DesignC. Williams - Senior Member - IEEE
IEEE 1366
• Defines Reliability Indicies– SAIDI, SAIFI,CAIDI,CEMI, etc
• Includes Reporting Guidelines• Defines “Major” or “Severe” Events• Major Event = 10% of customers in an
operating area are out in a 24 hour period.
Suncoast Daily CMI
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%1
139
277
415
553
691
829
967
1105
1243
1381
1519
1657
1795
1933
2071
2209
2347
2485
2623
2761
2899
3037
3175
3313
3451
3589
3727
3865
4003
4141
Cumulative Days
Cum
ulat
ive
% C
MI
-
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
Cum
ulat
ive
CM
I
CUM %cum CMI
3% of Days (124) = 50% CMI
Severe vs Non-Severe WeatherSuncoast Region
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
# Daily Outages
Dai
ly C
MI
NON-SEVERESevere
Suncoast Storm 7/15/2000
3/13/93
3/14/93
9/17/2000
4/25/91
New Major Event Definition Proposal
• Takes a statistical approach• Proposal
– 6 sigma of log normal distribution on daily CMI by region
– non arbitrary– applied by region– applied to individual historical performance and
events
Fig. 4 - Typical Log-Normal Distribution
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
0 2 4 6 8
Reliability
Prob
abili
ty
System Daily Outages
System Daily Outages
System Data
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 3,430,000Major Events = 41Severe Events = 61
System Data
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 3,430,000Major Events = 41Severe Events = 61
RESCALED
RESCALEDSuncoast Data
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 1,308,690Major Events = 33Severe Events = 48
Suncoast Data
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 1,308,690Major Events = 33Severe Events = 48
Comparison of Major Events6 SIGMA / Present Definition
• System• CMI Excluded = 60%• Events (days) = 67%
• Regional• CMI Excluded = 110%• Events (days) = 40%
Paper by Dr. Christie
• Proposes Statistical definition• Prompted by discussions at Vancouver
IEEE SPM.• Web site with paper and spread sheet
example• http://www.ee.washington.edu/people/faculty/christie/
IOU Committee Challenge
• Each IOU to review daily CMI history• Develop Log Normal Distribution• Compare Historical Exclusions to 6 Sigma
approach• Report findings at next IOU meeting• Feedback to IEEE W.G. on System Design
SYSTEM BULK+DIST DATA
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
DAILY OUTAGE COUNT
DA
ILY
CM
I
DISTBULK
SYSTEM BULK+DIST DATA
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
DAILY OUTAGE COUNT
DA
ILY
CM
I
DISTBULK
RESCALED
NOCEN DATA
-1,000,000
1,000,000
3,000,000
5,000,000
7,000,000
9,000,000
11,000,000
13,000,000
15,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 1,624,656Major Events = 29Severe Events = 47
RESCALED
NOCEN DATA
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 1,624,656Major Events = 29Severe Events = 47
NORTH DATA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA6 Sigma = 1,330,932
Major Events = 10Severe Events = 40
OCALA DATA
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Daily Outage Count
DA
ILY
CM
I
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 2,850,192Major Events = 10Severe Events = 47
OCALA DATA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Daily Outage Count
DA
ILY
CM
I
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 2,850,192Major Events = 10Severe Events = 47
RESCALED
SOCEN DATA
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Daily Outage Count
Dai
ly C
MI
ANSSIGMA
6 Sigma = 1,201,386Major Events = 10Severe Events = 49
