Update on

Matric Results, Applications, Enrolments, Success, Graduation,

Student Satisfaction & Research Output Trends

Presented to STLSC

28 February 2011

Prof George Subotzky

Executive Director: Information & Strategic Analysis

Acknowledgements

The efforts of the following members of DISA staff in assisting in

the preparation of this presentation are warmly acknowledged:

– Pam Pistorius, PA to the ED

– Robert Lightbody, Assistant to the ED

– Nelson Masindi, Information Analyst

– Mercy Sondlo, Institutional Researcher

– Dion van Zyl, Manager: Information Services

– Suzette van Zyl, Deputy Director: BI & Analytic Systems

– Vincent Nyalungu, Senior BI Specialist

– Yuraisha Chetty, Director: Institutional Research

2010 Matric Results

Matric Pass Rates, 1998-2010

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pass Rate 49,3% 48,9% 57,8% 61,7% 68,9% 73,2% 70,7% 68,3% 66,5% 65,2% 62,5% 60,6% 67,8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Matric Pass Rates, 1998-2010

• In 2010, the NSC matric results increased by 7,2% to 67,8%

• There has been considerable debate about the reliability of

this, with Umalusi defending its standardisation process,

which was publically disclosed last week. However, details

remain scant and the jury is still out.

• A full briefing will be shortly distributed by DISA

University Entrance (Endorsement) Rates,

2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Endorsement Rate 18,2% 17,0% 16,2% 15,1% 18,0% 19,8% 23,5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

University Entrance (Endorsement) Rates,

2004-10

• 2010 also saw a considerable increase of 3,3% in the

proportion of passes eligible for university entrance

• After declining between 2004 and 2007, the endorsement rate

has risen steadily since then from 15,1% to 23,5% in 2010

• As a result, the pool of eligible university entrants has grown

considerably as is evident in the recent frantic flurry for

university places

WroteTotal

PassedFailed NSC HC DIPL BACH

Eligible

for HE

2008 N 554 664 339 497 209 870 180 105 847 127 423 106 047 339 317

% 61,2% 37,8% 0,0% 19,1% 23,0% 19,1% 61,2%

2009 N 552 073 334 706 217 355 628 93 346 131 035 109 697 334 078

% 60,6% 39,4% 0,1% 16,9% 23,7% 19,9% 60,2%

2010 N 537 543 364 513 171 471 677 91 241 146 224 126 371 363 836

% 67,8% 31,9% 0,1% 17,0% 27,2% 23,5% 65,6%

-

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

Detailed Matric Results, 2008-10

Detailed Matric Results, 2008-10

• While slightly fewer matrics wrote in 2010 (537 543), the absolute number of passes rose by around 30 000 to 364 513

• Correspondingly, the number of failures dropped to 171 471

• Discounting the small number of school-leaving NSC passes, the number and proportion of eligible entrants to HE rose by just under 30 000 from 334 078 (60,2%) in 2009 to 363 836 (65,6%) in 2010

• Within these:

– The number eligible for higher certificates actually dropped from 93 346 (16,9%) to 91 241 (17,0%)

– Those eligible for diplomas increased from 131 035 (23,7%) to 146 224 (27,2%)

– Those eligible for B degrees rose substantially from 109 697 (19,9%) to 126 371 (23,5%)

• This explains the current high demand for university places

• Unisa can expect increased demand in the 2nd registration period

2011 Applications

Applications & New Registrations, 2011 (as at 28 February)

Total Applications

for 2011

New Registrations

(2011

Applications Only)

%

Uptake

New Registrations

(incl Previous Years

Applications)

UG 87 092 33 581 39% 54 752

H 9 899 2 328 24% 4 081

M 3 401 205 6% 877

D 1 635 67 4% 331

Total 100 867 36 181 36% 60 041

Applications & New Registrations, 2011

• As at 26 January, a total of just over 100 000 applications for

2011 have been received

• Of these, 36% have registered

• A total of just over 60 000 new students have registered for

2011 (these include applicants from previous years)

• Given the huge and unanticipated demand for university

places following the increased number of school leavers

eligible for university entrance, Unisa can expect considerably

more applications in the second registration period in 2011

and beyond

2011 Registrations

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

BF

P

28

Nov

03

Dec

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07

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12

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r

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r

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Au

g

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Au

g

2008 2009 2010 2011

Registrations: Cumulative Daily HC Totals,

2008-11 (as at 1 March)

2011: 279 844

2008: 284 888

2009: 279 342

2010: 309 388

Registrations: Cumulative Daily HC Totals,

2008-11

• To date (1 March), just under 280 000 students have already

registered for 2011

• As is evident, the rate of registrations in 2011 exceeds that of

previous years

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2010 Y 2010 S1 2010 S2 2010 Total 2011 Y 2011 S1 2011 S2 2011 Total

Cumulative Coursecounts by Tuition Period,

2010-11 (as at 1 March)

2010 T: 1 316 684

2010 S1: 437 815

2010 Y: 377 501

2010 S2: 501 368

2011 Y: 274 679

2011 S2: 110 000

2011 S1: 671 374

2011 T: 1 056 053

Cumulative Coursecounts by Tuition Period,

2010-11 (as at 31 January)

• Total 2010 coursecounts amounted to 1 316 684. To date,

2011 total coursecounts have already reached 1 056 053

• In 2010, S1 coursecounts totalled 437 815 and S2 totalled an

even higher 501 368 – probably as a result of students who

missed the first application period

• To date, 2011 S1 coursecounts have already reached 671 374

– far in excess of 2010

• To date, 2011 S2 coursecounts have reached 110 000 and

reflect a higher cumulative total than the equivalent date in

2010

• To date, the rate of 2011 Y registrations matches that of 2010

Registrations: Weekly Totals, 2008-11 (as at 1 March)

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

BFP

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

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W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

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W34

W35

W36

W37

2008 2009 2010 2011

Registrations: Weekly Totals, 2008-11

• In the week ending 21 January 2011 (the closing date for

Semester 1 registrations), a staggering total of around 65 000

students registered – over 21 000 on Friday of that week

alone

• In the following week, a further 43 000 registrations occurred

• This means that Unisa registered around 108 000 students

over the two-week peak period

• This exceeds by far previous years’ registrations and indicates

the high level of operational efficiency achieved in Unisa’s

registration process

Provisional & HEMIS Enrolments,

2004-10

Provisional & HEMIS HCs, 2004-10 (as at 31 January)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Provisional 207 906 218 156 230 229 262 860 285 199 279 742 308 874

% Change 4,9% 5,5% 14,2% 8,5% -1,9% 10,4%

HEMIS 205 618 207 931 227 539 239 380 261 927 263 559 290 342

% Change 1,1% 9,4% 5,2% 9,4% 0,6% 10,8%

Active Student Rate 91,1% 91,8% 94,2% 94,0%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2010 Ministerial Target (258 000)

Provisional & HEMIS HCs, 2004-10

• The 2010 provisional enrolments currently stand at 308 874

- a sharp increase of 10,4% over 2009

• Unisa’s 2009 HEMIS active headcount total was 263 559 - a

moderate 0,6% increase over 2008 but around 5 000 above

the Ministerial target of 258 000

• In 2009, the active student rate increased to 94,2% - 2,4%

above 2008.

• Projecting on a 94% active student rate in 2010, we predict an

active headcount of over 290 000 this year. Clearly, the

implications have to be addressed in Unisa’s emerging

enrolment management framework.

HEMIS HCs by College, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Prov.)

CEMS 97 026 100 489 111 941 119 702 128 674 122 887 130 065

CHS 52 867 52 772 56 983 56 386 69 496 79 724 85 670

CLAW 28 209 26 304 26 679 27 001 25 621 25 634 28 140

CSET 15 896 16 062 15 001 15 887 17 273 17 102 18 631

CAES 1 904 2 180 2 642 3 403 4 077 4 027 4 930

OCC 9 716 10 124 14 293 17 001 16 786 14 185 14 944

0

40 000

80 000

120 000

Proportion of HEMIS HCs by College,

2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov.)

CEMS 47,2% 48,3% 49,2% 50,0% 49,1% 46,6% 46,1%

CHS 25,7% 25,4% 25,0% 23,6% 26,5% 30,2% 30,3%

CLAW 13,7% 12,7% 11,7% 11,3% 9,8% 9,7% 10,0%

CSET 7,7% 7,7% 6,6% 6,6% 6,6% 6,5% 6,6%

CAES 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,4% 1,6% 1,5% 1,7%

OCC 4,7% 4,9% 6,3% 7,1% 6,4% 5,4% 5,3%

0%

20%

40%

HEMIS HCs by College, 2004-10

• Strong growth has been evident in CHS to 85 670 in 2010,

which now comprises over 30% of the total

• After consistent increases between 2004 and 2008, CEMS

showed a slight decline of + 6 000 in 2009, followed by a

large increase of + 8 000 in 2010. It now represents 46,1% of

the total – down from over 50% in previous years

• The other colleges were relatively static

• A decline in the number and proportion of occasional

students was evident from a high of 17 000 (7,1%) in 2007 to

just under 15 000 (5,3%) in 2010

• These trends have important implications for enrolments

management, especially in relation to CHS

HEMIS HCs by Race, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Prov.)

African 113 352 116 863 131 197 146 120 167 613 168 614 186 124

Coloured 12 847 12 534 14 151 14 378 15 280 15 338 16 213

Indian 20 332 21 089 22 580 22 211 22 701 23 418 23 647

White 58 669 57 164 59 209 56 414 56 294 56 117 56 250

0

30 000

60 000

90 000

120 000

150 000

180 000

Proportion of HEMIS HCs by Race,

2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov.)

African 55,1% 56,2% 57,7% 61,0% 64,0% 64,0% 65,9%

Coloured 6,2% 6,0% 6,2% 6,0% 5,8% 5,8% 5,7%

Indian 9,9% 10,1% 9,9% 9,3% 8,7% 8,9% 8,4%

White 28,5% 27,5% 26,0% 23,6% 21,5% 21,3% 19,9%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

HEMIS HCs by Race, 2004-10

• Interestingly, Unisa’s 2008 and 2009 student racial profile

were almost identical

• However, in 2010 the number and proportion of African

students continued the upward trend from 168 614 (64,0%) in

2009 to 186 124 (65,9%)

• While the absolute number of white students has remained

static since 2007 at around 56 000, their proportion continued

its gradual decline from 28,5% in 2004 to 19,9% in 2010

• The number of Coloured and Indian students increased

marginally over the period, while their proportion declined

marginally to 5,7% and 8,4% respectively

HEMIS HCs by Gender, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov.)

Female 110 767 114 144 128 597 136 584 153 189 158 656 170 268

Male 94 433 93 506 98 540 102 539 108 699 104 831 111 966

-

20 000

40 000 60 000

80 000

100 000 120 000

140 000

160 000 180 000

HEMIS % of HCs by Gender, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov.)

Male 46,0% 45,0% 43,4% 42,9% 41,5% 39,8% 39,7%

Female 54,0% 55,0% 56,6% 57,1% 58,5% 60,2% 60,3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

HEMIS HCs by Gender, 2004-10

• The number and proportion of Unisa’s women students has

increased steadily from 110 767 (54,0%) in 2004 to 170 268

(60,3%) in 2010

• While, at the aggregate level, this represents a positive equity

trend, the analysis of the underlying data shows that they are

disproportionately concentrated at the undergraduate

diploma level

HEMIS HCs above & below 30, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov)

<30 98 980 102 972 114 861 125 849 137 238 132 938 145 252

>30 106 638 104 959 112 678 113 531 124 689 130 621 137 128

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

Proportion of HEMIS HCs

above & below 30, 2004-10

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010

(Prov)

>30 51,9% 50,5% 49,5% 47,4% 47,6% 49,6% 48,6%

<30 48,1% 49,5% 50,5% 52,6% 52,4% 50,4% 51,4%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

• Between 2004 and 2008, the number and proportion of

students below 30 increased steadily from 98 980 (48,1%) to

137 238 (52,4%)

• However, in 2009 this trend reversed, with the number and

proportion of students below 30 declining to 132 938 (50,4%)

• In 2010, the number and proportion of students below 30

increased again to 145 252 (51,4%) - still however below the

peak of 52,6% in 2007 in proportional terms

• These trends contradict the popular assumption that Unisa’s

student profile is constantly becoming younger and indicate

that the university continues to provide valuable lifelong

learning opportunities for older, non-traditional students

Proportion of HEMIS HCs

above & below 30, 2004-10

Course Success Rates,

2004-9

Course Success Rates, 2004-9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2010

Original

Target

2010

Revised

Target

Degree Credit SR 53,5% 50,7% 54,3% 54,9% 59,7% 60,0% 56,0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Course Success Rates, 2004-9

• Very encouragingly, Unisa’s official (degree credit) course

success rate increased substantially by almost 5% from 54,9%

in 2008 to 59,7% in 2009

• This exceeds the revised ministerial 2010 target of 56% and

almost attains the original ministerial target of 60%

November/December

Exam Sitting Pass Rates, 2005-10

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates, 2005-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nov/Dec EPR 59,1% 57,2% 58,8% 59,6% 61,5% 62,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates by College,

2005-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CHS 72,4% 72,5% 72,1% 72,9% 75,1% 75,8%

CAES 59,7% 53,9% 57,7% 59,1% 59,7% 62,4%

CLAW 56,8% 56,0% 57,5% 61,7% 56,1% 59,3%

CEMS 52,2% 49,1% 52,3% 50,4% 53,8% 55,2%

CSET 54,5% 43,8% 46,5% 49,3% 52,0% 49,3%

Unisa 59,1% 57,2% 58,8% 59,6% 61,5% 62,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates by Race,

2005-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

African 52,5% 50,0% 52,7% 53,8% 56,7% 58,5%

Coloured 60,8% 58,6% 61,0% 63,2% 64,0% 64,7%

Indian 60,5% 59,4% 62,4% 64,7% 65,3% 66,4%

White 71,7% 71,5% 72,5% 73,8% 74,0% 74,6%

Unisa 59,1% 57,2% 58,8% 59,6% 61,5% 62,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates by Gender,

2005-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Female 61,5% 60,1% 61,1% 61,5% 63,9% 64,7%

Male 56,0% 53,0% 55,5% 56,5% 57,4% 59,0%

Unisa 59,1% 57,2% 58,8% 59,6% 61,5% 62,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates by

Qualification Level, 2005-10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

UG 58,7% 57,0% 58,9% 59,8% 61,8% 62,6%

PG 63,6% 59,0% 57,0% 56,4% 57,8% 62,5%

Unisa 59,1% 57,2% 58,8% 59,6% 61,5% 62,6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nov/Dec Sitting Exam Pass Rates, 2005-10

• Unisa’s overall EPR for the Nov/Dec sitting rose steadily from 57,2% in 2006 to 62,6% in 2010

• The increase from 61,5% in 2009 to 62,6% in 2010 bodes well for a further increase in the (degree credit) course success rate in 2010

• Among the colleges, CHS achieved the highest EPR, rising to 75,8% in 2010 followed by CAES (62,4%), CLAW (59,3%) , CEMS (55,2%) and CSET (49,3%)

• Although improving from 53,5% in 2005 to 58,5% in 2010, African EPR was significantly lower than Coloureds (64,7%), Indians (66,4%) and especially whites (74,6%) . This reflects the ongoing legacy of apartheid

• Female students outperformed their male conterparts throughout the period, reaching and EPR of 64,7% in 2010 as opposed to 59,0% for males

• By 2010, UG and PG EPRs were almost identical

Graduations & Graduation Rates,

2004-9

HEMIS Graduations, 2004-9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Graduations 14 541 14 185 13 855 14 341 17 923 22 675

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Graduations by Race & Gender, 2009

African African Coloured Coloured Indian Indian White White

Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male

2004 4 487 2 958 297 300 788 496 3 019 2 179

2005 4 870 2 711 324 216 748 475 2 910 1 905

2006 4 937 2 534 316 199 726 412 2 976 1 720

2007 4 946 2 588 382 236 834 485 3 041 1 804

2008 6 899 3 489 524 304 997 513 3 361 1 831

2009 10 084 4 293 637 321 1 256 572 3 668 1 841

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Graduations by Qualification Type, 2009

UndergraduateCertificate &

Diplomas

UndergraduateDegrees

Postgraduatebelow Masters

Masters Doctoral

2004 4 274 6 047 3 385 739 96

2005 4 362 5 889 3 269 573 92

2006 4 388 5 573 3 190 623 81

2007 3 977 5 869 3 804 613 78

2008 6 535 6 593 4 314 414 67

2009 9 764 7 739 4 728 373 71

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

HEMIS Graduations, 2004-9

• Between 2008 and 2009, a significant increase of around 4 500 in Unisa's overall graduations was evident from 17 923 to 22 675. Since 2004, the new Unisa has contributed over 97 500 graduates to the South African labour market and society

• The 2009 increase was largely driven by a sharp increase in African female graduates in undergraduate certificate/diploma is, mainly in education

– While in itself welcome, from an equity perspective increasing the proportion of African female graduates in the other qualification types remains a challenge

• While White students' graduation rates remained the highest, African graduation rates increased over the period

HEMIS Graduations, 2004-9

• Female graduation rates higher, despite facing more

responsibilities

• In 2009, a substantial growth in UG certificates/diplomas was

evident to 9 764. Graduates at the PG level below Masters

also increased, while of great concern is the consistent decline

in Masters and Doctoral graduates between 2004 and 2009.

• CHS produced higher numbers and proportions of graduates

- underpinned by the large increase in UG certificates/

diplomas.

HEMIS “Proxy” Graduation Rates,

2004-9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2010

Original

Target

2010

Revised

Target

Proxy GR (Total) 7,1% 6,8% 6,1% 6,0% 6,8% 8,6% 10,0%

Proxy GR (Non-Occ) 7,4% 7,2% 6,5% 6,4% 7,3% 9,1% 8,4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

HEMIS “Proxy” Graduation Rates,

2004-9 • In terms of the rough, “proxy” graduation rate (calculated by

the number of graduates over headcounts in an academic

year), Unisa’s performance increased to 8,6% in 2009 – up

from around 6–7% in previous years

• This is approaching the original 2010 ministerial target of 10%

• However, when occasional students are legitimately excluded

from the calculation, Unisa achieved a “proxy” graduation rate

of 9,1% in 2009 – sharply up from 7,3% in 2008 and exceeding

the revised 2010 ministerial target of 8,4%

• While improving Unisa’s success, throughput and graduation

rates remains an urgent priority, these recent improvements

bode very well

Unfunded Students,

2004-9

Unfunded Students, 2005-9

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TIUs (Actual) 83 557 90 803 95 582 109 456 109 444

TIUs (Allocated) 79 355 82 898 87 044 92 063 97 079

Unfunded FTEs -4 202 -7 905 -8 538 -17 393 -12 365

-20 000

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

Unfunded Students, 2005-9

• Between 2008 and 2009, the number of actual Teaching Input

Units (TIUs) was static at around 109 000

• Against the 97 079 TIUs allocated to Unisa in 2009 in terms of

DHET’s current capping policy, this resulted in a total of

12 365 unfunded students with an estimated potential subsidy

loss of approximately R129 million

• However, against Unisa’s earlier projection of 21 168

unfunded students in 2009 (not shown), this represented a

decline of around 9 000

• Nonetheless, the challenge of reducing future unfunded

students and of mitigating the attendant financial risk remains

an urgent priority

Student Satisfaction Indices,

2005-10

Student Satisfaction Survey, 2010

GUSI

(General)

UREI

(Regis-tration)

USSSI

(Student

Support)

UAPI

(Academic)

UAPSI

(Admin &

Professional)

USSI

(Composite)

2005 76,31 75,91 67,94 71,13 74,96 73,24

2006 62,37 73,30 66,59 69,47 71,79 68,74

2007 73,09 73,90 64,52 69,07 70,23 70,18

2008 71,68 64,07 63,00 67,53 75,14 68,31

2009 63,84 62,44 59,93 62,79 67,56 63,15

2010 64,45 65,10 59,38 62,87 67,65 63,89

2009-10 0,61 2,66 -0,55 0,08 0,09 0,74

2005-10 -11,86 -10,81 -8,56 -8,26 -7,31 -9,35

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Student Satisfaction Survey, 2010

• 2010 saw a slight but encouraging increase in overall student

satisfaction at Unisa – reversing the consistent downward

trend since 2007 but this remains far below target

• The composite Unisa Student Satisfaction Index (USSI)

increased by 0,74 to 63,89 in 2010

• A significant increase of 2,66 was evident in the Unisa

Registration Efficiency Index (UREI)

• Marginal increases were evident in the General (GUSI),

Academic Performance (UAPI) and Admin & Professional

Services (UAPSI) Indices

• The only index to show a decline was the Student Support

Services Index (USSSI) which fell marginally by 0,55

Higher Education Research Outputs,

2008-9

Total Weighted Research Outputs,

2008-9

Total Weighted Output Per Capita, 2009

SU UCT WITS RU UP UKZN UFS NWU UWC UJ NMMU UFH UZ UNISA TUT CPUT UL CUT UV VUT DUT WSU MUT

Total 2,30 2,14 1,75 1,75 1,40 1,40 1,28 1,19 1,11 1,05 0,89 0,84 0,69 0,67 0,41 0,35 0,34 0,31 0,29 0,19 0,18 0,05 0,03

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

0.67

14th

SU UCT WITS RU UP UKZN UJ UFS NWU NMMU UWC TUT CPUT UFH CUT UNISA UZ VUT DUT UL UV WSU MUT

% 184,1 170,9 140,4 140,2 111,9 111,8 108,1 102,3 95,3 95,2 89,2 82,8 69,9 67,3 63,0 58,2 55,1 37,5 36,4 27,1 23,5 7,0 6,2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

58.2%

16th

Actual Research Outputs as % of Norms, 2009

Unisa & Sector Teaching & Research

Development Funds, 2010/11 – 2011/12

Unisa Sector Unisa Sector

2010/11 2011/12

Teaching 261 462 393 644 226 500 419 920

Research 26 645 166 281 1 517 6 808

-

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

Total Weighted Research Outputs,

2008-9 • In 2009, Unisa was ranked 8th in terms of total research outputs – slipping

from 7th place in 2008 behind UFS

• Our publications output of 626 units placed us in 6th place – clearly

reflecting our area of research strength

• Unisa’s doctoral output of 71 graduates placed it 8th among all institutions

• Our research masters output of 100 graduates placed us in 14th place

• However, Unisa’s average weighted research output per academic staff was

0,7 – well below the norm of 1,16

• Unisa’s actual output was only 58,2% of its norm, placing it in 16th place

• Unisa’s research development allocation fell drastically from R26,6-m in

2010/11 to just R1,5-m in 2011/12 as a result of the sector achieving actual

outputs much closer to the norm

• A full analysis & briefing, jointly conducted by the Research Department &

DISA, will be circulated soon

Summary & Conclusion

Summary

• Controversially “improved” NSC results will undoubtedly result

in increased applications in 2nd period and beyond

• Around 30% of 2011 applications converted into registrations;

around 50 000 new registrations in 2011

• 2010 provisional registrations up by 10,4%; projected HEMIS

active HC around 290 000

• Some interesting shifts in the student profile evident in 2010

• 2011 provisional registrations (now above 245 000) up on

previous years

• 2009 course success rate (59,7%) and “proxy” graduation rate

(9,1%) approaching and exceeding Ministerial targets; 2009

graduations up substantially to over 22 000

Summary

• 2010 Nov/Dec exam sitting pass rate was 62,6% - up from

61,5% - which bodes well for a healthy course success rate if

attrition can be reduced

• Number of unfunded students in 2009 less than the original

projection, but still constitutes a serious financial burden

• Student satisfaction showed a marginal increase in 2010 but

remains well below acceptable levels and targets

• Unisa’s rank in terms of research outputs in 2009 slipped to

8th; its strength still lies in publications (6th place)

Conclusion

• Strong and sustained upward application and enrolment trends

have significant implications for enrolment management,

particularly regarding unfunded students

• Key strategic decision: maintain open access and current social

mandate or manage enrolments to improve efficiency and remain

within Ministerial targets?

• Shifts in student profile must be carefully monitored and analysed

and implications actioned

• Recent improvements in success and graduation rates must be

sustained, based on actionable intelligence

• Coordinated improvement in all services required to improve

student satisfaction

• M&D graduates and per capita research outputs must be targeted

for improvement with reduced research development funding