11

Update on the STB and Rail Freight IssuesSTB Commissioner Francis P. Mulvey

Western Coal Traffic League-Annual Fall Meeting

Washington, D.C. –October 20, 2005

22

•• Board at full strength with confirmation of two new Board at full strength with confirmation of two new membersmembers

•• Agency worked off a significant backlog in yearAgency worked off a significant backlog in year

•• Held 19 Public meetings on significant issues:Held 19 Public meetings on significant issues:–– Nine Voting ConferencesNine Voting Conferences–– Five Oral ArgumentsFive Oral Arguments–– Five HearingsFive Hearings

STB Past Year in ReviewSTB Past Year in Review

33

•• Decisions on seven maximum coal rate casesDecisions on seven maximum coal rate cases

•• Oral arguments in three coal rate cases and one Oral arguments in three coal rate cases and one pipeline casepipeline case

•• Hearings on the SAC process and small rate casesHearings on the SAC process and small rate cases

Year in Review Year in Review ––Maximum Rate CasesMaximum Rate Cases

44

•• Board carefully monitored rail trends and Board carefully monitored rail trends and performance metricsperformance metrics

•• Facilitated communications between railroads and Facilitated communications between railroads and shippers in cooperation with AAR at conference shippers in cooperation with AAR at conference in St. Louis in St. Louis

•• Asked railroads to submit their fall peak plansAsked railroads to submit their fall peak plans

•• Site visits by Board to PRB, shipper facilitiesSite visits by Board to PRB, shipper facilities

Year in Review Year in Review –– Service IssuesService Issues

55

Year in ReviewYear in Review

•• Chairman Chairman NoberNober’’ss decision not to seek a decision not to seek a second termsecond term

• Implications for the Board’s Functioning

66

•• Powder River Basin MaintenancePowder River Basin Maintenance•• Rates and Rate CasesRates and Rate Cases•• Fall Peak 2005 ServiceFall Peak 2005 Service•• General Freight Capacity General Freight Capacity

Coal Transportation IssuesCoal Transportation Issues

77

•• Highest density rail lines in worldHighest density rail lines in world•• Unique Unique ““jointjoint”” lineline•• Focus of great deal of Board attention due to Focus of great deal of Board attention due to

key role PRB coal plays in economy and key role PRB coal plays in economy and regulatory schemeregulatory scheme

•• Made firstMade first--ever agency site visit to PRB last ever agency site visit to PRB last yearyear

The Powder River BasinThe Powder River Basin

88

PRB PRB –– STB Action ItemsSTB Action Items

•• BNSF and UP addressed Board members on PRB BNSF and UP addressed Board members on PRB situation in July 2005situation in July 2005

•• Numerous meetings with utilities and other coal Numerous meetings with utilities and other coal shippers to hear concerns about PRB serviceshippers to hear concerns about PRB service

•• STBSTB’’ss Office of Compliance and Enforcement Office of Compliance and Enforcement hosts weekly conference calls with BNSF and UP hosts weekly conference calls with BNSF and UP to address PRB and Joint Line issuesto address PRB and Joint Line issues

99

Joint Line/PRB StatusJoint Line/PRB Status

•• Joint line handled an average of 59.5 trains per Joint line handled an average of 59.5 trains per day in August 2005day in August 2005

•• Loading levels improving Loading levels improving –– total trains per day total trains per day continually increasingcontinually increasing

•• Joint Line maintenance is on schedule Joint Line maintenance is on schedule –– BNSF BNSF completed the 2completed the 2ndnd phase of 3 phase maintenance phase of 3 phase maintenance plan in Augustplan in August

•• Not all transportation problems are railroadNot all transportation problems are railroad’’s fault s fault ––some lay with mines alsosome lay with mines also

1010

Next Steps Next Steps ---- PRBPRB

•• Carriers must cooperate in completing Carriers must cooperate in completing maintenancemaintenance

•• Railroads must determine causes and best way to Railroads must determine causes and best way to treat fugitive coal dusttreat fugitive coal dust

•• Railroads, mines and utilities must all be part of Railroads, mines and utilities must all be part of solution to prevent future coalsolution to prevent future coal--dust related line dust related line failuresfailures

•• Will finalize EIS on DM&E PRB expansion Will finalize EIS on DM&E PRB expansion project be early next yearproject be early next year\\

•• STB will continue to focus on PRB as a core STB will continue to focus on PRB as a core agency responsibilityagency responsibility

1111

Coal Rate CasesCoal Rate Cases

•• Board currently has 5 pending SAC Cases.Board currently has 5 pending SAC Cases.•• Fewer than past years despite utility unhappiness Fewer than past years despite utility unhappiness

with rates.with rates.•• Regulatory responsibility to adjudicate cases on Regulatory responsibility to adjudicate cases on

record before agency.record before agency.•• Shippers often want redress for large increasesShippers often want redress for large increases•• Railroads feel commercially reasonable rates Railroads feel commercially reasonable rates

should governshould govern

1212

Alternative ApproachesAlternative Approaches

• SAC approach has been criticized as artificial and overly complex

• SAC approach is very costly and time consuming

• Only feasible for large shippers• Is it time to look for alternative approaches?

What happens if railroads become revenue adequate?

1313

Summary of Recent SAC CasesSummary of Recent SAC Cases

Case Name Decision Date

Tariff Rates (per ton)

Shipper Requested Reduction Result

FMC 2000 wide range* wide range ~15% reduction WPL 2001 $14.66 ~ 32% ~11% reduction PPL Mont. 2002 $5.33 - $7.74 ~ 31% dismissed TMPA 2003 $19.09 ~ 30-42% ~1-3% reduction Duke/NS 2003 $16.00 - $21.01 ~ 53-62% Not shown unreasonable CP&L 2003 $16.56 - $16.86 ~ 57% Not shown unreasonable Duke/CSXT 2004 $16.66 - $19.00 ~ 53-63% Not shown unreasonable APS 2004 $4.21 prescription no change prescription vacated Xcel 2004 $8.98 - $9.24 ~ 44% ~16% reduction AEPCO 2005 $9.05 - $10.17 ~ 25-40% dismissed * 16 origin/destination pairs involving 5 commodities

1414

Pending SAC CasesPending SAC Cases

Case Name Date Filed Tariff Rate Statutory Deadline Otter Tail 2001 $13.49 - $15.96 Jan. 20, 2006 AEP Texas North 2003 $17.25 - 18.04 Mar. 9, 2006 Western Fuels 2004 $5.69 - $8.13 Record not closed APS v. BNSF 2004 $6.91 - $8.75 Complaint stayed

pending appeal West Texas v. BNSF

On remand from D.C. Circuit

$13.68 prescription None

KCPL v. UP 2005 $15.84 - $14.26 Record not closed

1515

Current SAC IssuesCurrent SAC Issues

•• Held Spring 2005 hearing on SAC issues. Major Held Spring 2005 hearing on SAC issues. Major substantive issues discussed included:substantive issues discussed included:

•• The appropriate use of The appropriate use of ““crosscross--overover”” traffic;traffic;•• How the agency should project operating expenses; andHow the agency should project operating expenses; and•• Possible changes to the rate prescription methodology.Possible changes to the rate prescription methodology.

•• No party offered a detailed proposal on how to revise No party offered a detailed proposal on how to revise the SAC test.the SAC test.

•• Rulemaking v. AdjudicationRulemaking v. Adjudication: Shipper groups favored : Shipper groups favored resolution of SAC issues via adjudication, Railroads resolution of SAC issues via adjudication, Railroads favored rulemakingfavored rulemaking..

1616

•• 2005 Letter to railroads asking them to submit 2005 Letter to railroads asking them to submit Fall Peak plans, capacity bottlenecks and plans Fall Peak plans, capacity bottlenecks and plans to alleviate those identified issuesto alleviate those identified issues

•• Impact of Hurricane Katrina still being Impact of Hurricane Katrina still being evaluated evaluated

•• Individual carrier meetings where appropriateIndividual carrier meetings where appropriate

2005 Service Actions2005 Service Actions

1717

The Developing The Developing Rail Capacity CrisisRail Capacity Crisis

• Shrinking Workforce and Infrastructure Partly Offset by Productivity Improvements

• But Continuous Increase in Traffic Begins to Absorb “Excess Capacity”

• Network becomes More Vulnerable to Stochastic Events

• A Perfect Storm or the Rail Version of Global Warming

1818

Growth and Decline of Growth and Decline of Railroad MileageRailroad Mileage

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

1830

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

2004

1919

Railroad Employment 1939Railroad Employment 1939--20032003(in thousands)(in thousands)

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

1939

1947

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Number ofEmployeesall Railroads

2020

Intermodal Traffic Intermodal Traffic 19801980--20042004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

TotalContainerTrailers

2121

Railroad ROI 1970Railroad ROI 1970--20032003

0123456789

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2222

Railroad Cost of Capital and ROIRailroad Cost of Capital and ROICostCostOfOf

CapitalCapitalBNSFBNSF CSXTCSXT NSNS UPUP KCSKCS SOOSOO GTGT ICIC

19961996 11.9%11.9% 8.6%8.6% 8.9%8.9% 13.013.0%%

9.3%9.3% 7.2%7.2% 23.5%23.5% 0.0%0.0% 15.215.2%%

19971997 11.8%11.8% 8.4%8.4% 9.8%9.8% 13.113.1%%

5.2%5.2% 3.6%3.6% 12.3%12.3% 5.2%5.2% 15.815.8%%

19981998 10.7%10.7% 9.7%9.7% 8.1%8.1% 10.510.5%%

2.9%2.9% 9.1%9.1% 4.9%4.9% 3.0%3.0% 13.613.6%%

19991999 10.8%10.8% 9.5%9.5% 3.8%3.8% 5.2%5.2% 6.8%6.8% 6.4%6.4% 2.5%2.5% 25.425.4%%

10.010.0%%

20002000 11.0%11.0% 8.8%8.8% 3.6%3.6% 5.5%5.5% 6.9%6.9% 6.3%6.3% 5.6%5.6% 5.9%5.9% 5.9%5.9%

20012001 10.2%10.2% 7.1%7.1% 4.6%4.6% 8.3%8.3% 7.6%7.6% 7.0%7.0% 5.9%5.9% 4.9%4.9% 4.9%4.9%

20022002 9.8%9.8% 6.4%6.4% 5.2%5.2% 9.1%9.1% 8.6%8.6% 6.5%6.5% 5.7%5.7% 3.1%3.1% 3.1%3.1%

20032003 9.4%9.4% 6.2%6.2% 4.0%4.0% 9.1%9.1% 7.3%7.3% 3.7%3.7% .01%.01% 4.5%4.5% 4.5%4.5%

2323

Short term Capacity ProblemsShort term Capacity Problems

• Expanding Economy Led to Surge in Imports

• Large Grain Harvests in 2003 and 2004

• Growth in Export Coal Market

• Crew Shortages due to Wave of Retirements

• Equipment Shortages due to Reduced Purchases

• Cutbacks in Capital Spending Programs

• Tight Capacity in Trucking Industry due to

Driver Shortages, Higher Fuel Costs, HOS

Rules, etc.

2424

Class I Capital ExpendituresClass I Capital Expenditures(in billions of current $)(in billions of current $)

010002000300040005000600070008000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

total

Road andStructuresEquipment

2525

Carrier Responses to Recent Carrier Responses to Recent Capacity ProblemCapacity Problem

• More Cars and Locomotives Bought and Leased

• Accelerated Hiring and Training of Train Crews

• Some Infrastructure Expansion Efforts

• Price Rationing of Available Capacity

• Railroads Choosing who they will Serve and the Common Carrier Obligation

2626

LongLong--Term Rail Capacity Term Rail Capacity Constraint FactorsConstraint Factors

Demand for Freight Rail Transport Projectedto Grow by 60%-70% over Next Two Decades Railroads’ Inability to Earn Cost of Capital

. .Pressure from Wall Street to Reduce Capital Costs and Improve ROI

.Long-Term Contracts Limit RailroadPricing Flexibility

Railroads tend to Bid Long Term ContractRates Down to Long Run Marginal Costs

2727

Approaches to the TransportationApproaches to the TransportationCongestion ProblemCongestion Problem

Build more Physical Infrastructure

Adopt technological innovations

Promote shipper and traveler behavioral changes

Make better use of existing facilities

All have potential but all limits

2828

Infrastructure CapacityInfrastructure Capacity

SAFETEA-LU– 2 years late and $90 billion short

$286.5 billion over 6 years is 38% more than was provided for in TEA-21back in 1998 but far short of

$375 billion estimated need

Contains a rail title but far from intermodal legislation

Expands the RIFF program to $35 billion and makes shippers eligible

2929

Rail Capacity InvestmentRail Capacity Investment

Railroads Support Limited Public Sector Role Public/Private Partnerships (Alameda Corridor,

CREATE)Railroad Trust Fund Concept

Investment Tax Credits-Short Lines and the 286K lb. Car Problem

-Class I Access and Limited Fiscal Capacity

3030

•• Greater openness, more public meetingsGreater openness, more public meetings

•• Increased reliance on mediation and technical Increased reliance on mediation and technical conferencesconferences

•• Expedited discovery proceduresExpedited discovery procedures

•• Greater shipper and carrier outreachGreater shipper and carrier outreach

Recent Changes in Recent Changes in STB ProceduresSTB Procedures

3131

STB Agenda for Coming YearSTB Agenda for Coming Year

Yesterday’s Hearing on 25th Anniversaryof the Staggers Rail ActOral argument on ocean rates to Guam

Nationwide Anti-Trust Immunity forMotor Carrier Collective RatemakingContinued monitoring of railroadperformance and service

3232

Thank You, Any Questions?Thank You, Any Questions?