Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

Extra observations and targetedobservations to improvetrack prediction

Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation,targeted observations

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)

WinterWinter

NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and

Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s

JapanJapanPalauPalau

Typhoon Landfall

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada

[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]

WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP

Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon

U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF

TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

SoWMex

TH08

PROBEX

Extratropical transition,downstream impacts, targeted observations

Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany

• August-September 2008

• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:

• tropical cyclone formation• intensification • Motion/track• decay and/or ET

• Downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather on North America, Europe with research interests in

• tropical and midlatitude predictability • tropical cyclones

– Recurvature – ET

• intense extratropical cyclogenesis

• International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan

PANDOWAE A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research

Partners: Sarah Jones, Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier

(University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe) Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz)

George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR) Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics) Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds)

2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!):

1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students)

Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on

ECMWF EPS forecasts

TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling Idealised modelling and PV inversion

2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student)

Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector

Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia

TY Tokage, October 2004Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system

Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

Adaptive observations and plane sequencingNRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007)

SV Graphic supplied by Dr. Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey

TY Nabi TY Saola

Impacts on Numerical Model Performance

HurricaneMaria

MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS

The poleward movement of a tropical cyclone often results in a period of reduced forecast accuracy in operational numerical global weather prediction models

29/0830/08

31/0801/09

02/0903/09

04/09

05/09

06/09

07/09

08/09

09/09

Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event

Standard deviation among GFS ensemble members from the model integration initiated at 1200 UTC 6 September 2005 increases downstream of the extratropical transition of TY Nabi

Ex-TY Nabi

Ex-TY Saola

200 hPa meridional wind anomalies

Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response

Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response

What are the primary mechanisms that determine whether a downstream response will occur?

Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms

- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure

- outflow

- diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow

- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

Tropical cyclone core region

Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface

Midlatitude impact region

Summary: Major Science Issues•Mechanisms

- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure

- outflow

- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow

- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

•Predictability (understanding and assessment)- Ensemble spread- Forecast error growth- Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response

- Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle

•Predictability (increase)- Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted

observations - test new strategies and observational systems - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

NRL P-3 all FL 150OKO – 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n mi1 – 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi2 – 3 (31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi3 – 4 (35oN, 142.5oE) 315 n mi4 – OKO 185 n mi

1169 n miDrops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals

FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ

RJSM

0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi

WC-1301787 n mi decaying TC CoreSatelliet validation mission

RODN

RJTA

NRL P-31986 n miET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis

DLR Falcon Leg 11287 n miTC outflow-Jet InteractionLeg 2: 1414 n miTC outflow – Jet Interaction

Potential Aircraft Sampling Strategy during Extratropical Transition

DRIFTSONDE Released from HawaiiAltitude of 20-70 hPaApproximately 7-9 days to drift over thePhilippine SeaDropsonde release controlled from

Monterey, CA

GUAM

NSC

Day 12345

6

7

8Day 9

Driftsonde trajectories beginning 1 and 15 August and1 September 2007.

SummaryT-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a

GLOBAL OPERATION

Operations center, Monterey, CA

Driftsonde center,

Driftsonde release,Hawaii

Aircraft locations, andaircraft operations centers

Guam

Japan

Taiwan

Okinawa

Japan, Atsugi, NAF

Okinawa, Kadena AFB

T-PARC Components

Guam, Andersen AFB

ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis

Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts

Midlatitude operating regionNRL P-3, FALCON

TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005

Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation

Tropical Measurements

Tropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130

Subtropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130

TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction

TC Intensification and structure changeRecurvature, initiation of ET