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| © UPM 1 UPM Interim Report Q1 2019 Jussi Pesonen President and CEO 26 April 2019

UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

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Page 1: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM1

UPM Interim ReportQ1 2019 Jussi Pesonen

President and CEO

26 April 2019

Page 2: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM

Q1 2019: UPM continues to grow sales and earnings

• Sales grew by 7% to EUR 2,693 million

(2,512 million in Q1 2018)

• Comparable EBIT increased by 5% to

EUR 374m (355m)

• Sales prices were higher, outweighing the

impact of increased variable costs

• Operating cash flow was EUR 320m (214m)

• Net debt decreased to EUR –5m (41m)

2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Comparable EBITEURm

355374

Page 3: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q4/18 Q1/19

Lower increase in fair value of forests, depreciation higher.

Fixed costs lower and variable costs higher, partly due to

seasonal factors.

Sales prices higher, outweighing the impact of

increased variable costs. Deliveries increased.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q1/18 Q1/19

Prices

Variable

costs

Fixed

costs

Deliveries

35514.1%

37413.9%

Currency,

net

impact

Prices

Variable

costs

Fixed

costs

Deliveries

Currency,

net

impact

Depreciation,

forests,

plantations,

other

Comparable EBIT in Q1 2019

40414.8% 374

13.9%

Depreciation,

forests,

plantations,

other

Page 4: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM

Comparable EBIT by business area

4

0

2,5

5

7,5

10

12,5

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0

2,5

5

7,5

10

12,5

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-2,5

0

2,5

5

7,5

10

12,5

15

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

EURm % of sales

UPM Specialty Papers

EURm % of sales

UPM Communication Papers

EURm % of sales

EURm % of sales

UPM Raflatac

EURm % of salesEURm % of salesUPM Biorefining

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60UPM Energy

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60UPM Plywood

Page 5: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM

Q1 2019: favourable demand in most businesses, operationally a successful quarter

5

UPM PLYWOOD

• Price increases offset the higher variable costs

• Deliveries -6%

• Solid market demand continued

UPM COMMUNICATION PAPERS

• Average paper price +14%

• Deliveries -6%

• Measures to continuously improve cost

competitiveness and adapt capacity to the

profitable customer demand

UPM RAFLATAC

• Sales grew by 15%, driven by increased

sales prices and higher deliveries vs. low

comparison base

• Customer demand growth continued

• Fixed cost reduction programme started

UPM ENERGY• Average electricity sales price +16%

• Electricity deliveries -8%

• Dry weather limited hydropower generation

UPM BIOREFINING

• Average pulp prices in euros +6%

• Pulp deliveries +8%

• Good customer demand for pulp, biofuels, timber

• Operationally a successful quarter

UPM SPECIALTY PAPERS

• Deliveries +2%

• Good customer demand for label materials,

solid customer demand for fine papers in Asia

• Cost reduction, growth and product

development initiatives to restore profitability

Comparisons y-o-y

Page 6: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM

Consistently strong cash flow

6

• Q1/19 operating cash flow was

EUR 320m (214m in Q1/18)

• Working capital increased seasonally by

EUR 111m (142m)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

Operating cash flow

Free cash flow

Operating cash flow

EURm

Page 7: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

Outlook for 2019

The global economic growth is estimated to continue in 2019, albeit at a slower pace than in 2018. There are,

however, significant uncertainties related to this, including trade negotiations between China and the US, growth

in China, the undefined nature of Brexit and political uncertainties in several countries. These issues may have

an impact on the global economic growth and on UPM’s product and raw material markets during 2019.

UPM reached record earnings in 2018. UPM’s business performance is expected to continue at a good level in 2019.

In 2019, favorable demand is expected to continue for most UPM businesses.

Demand decline is expected to continue for UPM Communication Papers.

In the early part of 2019, pulp prices are expected to be lower and graphic paper prices in Europe

higher than in Q4 2018.

Input costs are expected to stabilise after the significant increases seen in 2018.

UPM will continue measures to reduce both variable and fixed costs.

Fair value increases of forest assets are not expected to contribute materially to comparable EBIT in 2019.

7

Page 8: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

Spearheads for growth

8

Page 9: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM9

Second preparation phase for the potential new pulp mill in Uruguay ongoing

• Labour protocols, regulation

• Investment regimes

• Regional planning and development

• Energy and complementary items

• Mill permitting, pre-engineering

• Rail permitting, tendering, start construction

• Port permitting, tendering, concession

• Roads

Phase ICompleted in Q4/17

Phase IIExpected to take 1.5-2 years

Phase III

Discussions with the

Government of Uruguay

Prerequisites for a possible

pulp mill investment

Investment project

Development of

infrastructure

Main items in preparation phase II:

Investment agreement signed in

Q4/17

Permitting

Pre-engineering

Development of

infrastructure

Necessary conditions

Potential UPM

investment decision

Page 10: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM10

Transformative prospects with unique opportunities for significant long-term earnings growth

• Possible new 2mt pulp mill, Uruguay

– Second preparation phase ongoing: the port concession

awarded, mill engineering, design, tendering and

permitting processes proceeding, free-trade zone granted.

– Pending: Central Railway PPP project, labour protocols

and conflict mitigation regulation and certain material

outstanding items specified in the IA.

• Molecular bioproducts, possible biorefineries

– Basic engineering completed for a potential 150kt

biochemicals refinery in Germany. Final site assessment

and commercial studies ongoing.

– Environmental impact study completed for a potential

500kt biofuels refinery in Finland. Ambition to scale-up

with a next generation biorefinery, development ongoing

into next year.

Page 11: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM11

Focused growth projects to develop market position while maintaining and growing earnings

• Completed – Jämsänkoski release liner expansion

+40kt in Q4 2018, Finland

– Raflatac speciality label expansionin Q1 2019, Finland

• Construction stage– Chudovo plywood mill expansion

+45k m3 in Q3 2019, Russia

– Nordland PM2 conversion to release liner +110kt in Q4 2019, Germany

– Changshu release liner expansion+40kt in Q1 2020, China

– Kuusankoski hydropower refurbishmentin Q4 2022, Finland

Page 12: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

Summary

12

• UPM continues to grow sales and earnings – Q1 2019 was the 24th

consecutive quarter of earnings growth.

• UPM’s business performance is expected to continue at a good level in

2019.

• Preparations continue for UPM’s transformative prospects with unique

opportunities for significant long-term earnings growth.

• Second preparation phase of the potential new pulp mill in Uruguay is in an

intensive phase.

Page 13: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM

Inspired by

the limitless

opportunities

of bioeconomy

Delivering

renewable and

responsible

solutions

Innovating

for a future

beyond fossils

Page 14: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,
Page 15: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

5-year cumulative cash flow (2014–2018)– efficient capital allocation in action

15

Net debt/

EBITDA

~ 0x

Industry-leading

balance sheetDeleveraging

EUR 2.8bn

Strong operating cash flow

EUR 6.9bn

Attractive dividend

EUR 2.2bn

Focused investments

EUR 1.9bn

Page 16: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

Illustrative capital allocation *) for the next 5 years,assuming the Uruguay pulp mill investment

16

Performance focus

Strong cash flowAttractive dividend

EUR ~3–4bn

High return

investments

EUR ~3–4bn Maintain headroom

Net debt/

EBITDA

< 2x

Industry-leading

balance sheet

*) This is not a forecast

Page 17: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM| © UPM| © UPM

Low investment needs in existing assets allow growth projects with modest total capex

17

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Depreciation

Operational investments

Strategic investments

Uruguay

acquisition

Myllykoski

acquisition

Focused growth investments

✓ High returns and fast payback

✓ Low implementation risk

✓ Financed from operating cash flow

Modest total capex

and attractive returns

Low replacement investments

✓ Asset quality in all businesses,

e.g. large competitive pulp mills

✓ UPM Communication Papers

*) Excluding potential

transformative prospects

Capital expenditureEstimateEURm

303350*)

Page 18: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM18

Maintenance shutdowns in 2018 and 2019

Maintenance shutdowns have an impact on

• Maintenance costs

• Production volumes

• Operational efficiency

Timing Unit

Q2 18 Fray Bentos pulp mill

Kaukas pulp mill

Lappeenranta biorefinery turnaround

Olkiluoto nuclear power plant

Q4 18 Pietarsaari pulp mill

Q2 19 Kymi pulp mill

Olkiluoto nuclear power plant

Q4 19 Fray Bentos pulp mill

Significant maintenance shutdowns

in 2018 and 2019

Page 19: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM19

UPM’s main currency exposures

• Key currency exposures USD, GBP and JPY

• Policy to hedge an average of 50% of the estimated net currency cash

flow for the next 12 months

Estimated annual foreign currency net cash flow, before hedging

USD GBP JPY Others

EURm 1,110 380 190 390

Page 20: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM

Maturity profile and liquidity

20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

+

Leases Loans

Liquidity on 31 March 2019 was EUR 1.1bn

UPM has bilateral committed facility EUR 6.5 million related to joint operations maturing in 2020.

EUR million

Page 21: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM21

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

USD/tonne

BHKP, Europe NBSK, Europe

BHKP, China NBSK, China

Chemical pulp market prices

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

EUR/tonne

BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR

BHKP, China, EUR NBSK, China, EUR

UPM Biorefining

Pulp market prices, USDPulp market prices, EUR

Source: FOEX Indexes Ltd

Page 22: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM22

UPM Energy

profitability2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q119

Comparable EBIT,

EURm202 181 116 91 123 39

% of sales 43.5 43.6 32.7 28.8 31.5 34.2

UPM Energy

Cost efficient generation enables robust profitability in changing market environment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EUR/MWhMarket electricity prices vs UPM sales price

Helsinki Front Year System Front Year UPM average sales price

Page 23: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM23

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

News SC LWC

WFC WFU

Graphic paper prices

EUR/tEurope

USD/t USD/tChinaNorth America

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

WFC r (100% chemical pulp)

Uncoated Woodfree Reels (100% chemicalpulp)

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

News SC LWC

WFC WFU

UPM Communication Papers

Sources: PPI, RISI

Page 24: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,

| © UPM24

Paper price vs. cash cost of marginal cost producer

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EUR/t

Cash cost of a marginal producer

Price

UPM Communication Papers

Sources: PPI, RISI, Pöyry

Page 25: UPM Interim Report Q1 2019...BHKP, China NBSK, China Chemical pulp market prices 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 EUR/tonne BHKP, Europe, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR BHKP, China,