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Urban Transportation, Energy Use and Urban Transportation, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Selected Asian CitiesCarbon Emissions in Selected Asian Cities
Ram M. ShresthaAsian Institute of Technology
Thailand
International Symposium on Urban Energy and Carbon Management4 February 2008, AIT, Thailand
2
Urbanization in AsiaUrbanization in Asia
Asian Megacities doubling their population every 15 to 20 years.London took 130 years to grow from 1 to 8 million; Bangkok took 45 years, Dhaka 37 years and Seoul only 25 yearsBy 2020, two-thirds of ASEAN urban population will live in only five Mega-Urban-Regions (MURs):
Source http://www.citymayors.com/society/asian_cities.html
By 2015, Asia would have:• 153 out of 358 cities (with more than one million) in the
world• 15 out of 27 Megacities (with more than 10 million)- in the
world
3
11 Largest cities of Asia and their population 11 Largest cities of Asia and their population in 2006 and 2020in 2006 and 2020
Rank City/Urban area Country Population in 2006 (millions)*
Population in 2020
(millions)**
1 Tokyo Japan 35.53 37.28
2 Mumbai India 18.84 25.97
3 Delhi India 16.00 25.83
4 Calcutta India 14.57 18.54
5 Jakarta Indonesia 13.67 20.77
6 Dhaka Bangladesh 13.09 22.04
7 Shanghai China 12.63 12.63
8 Karachi Pakistan 12.20 18.94
9 Osaka, Kobe Japan 11.32 11.53
10 Beijing China 10.85 11.15
11 Metro Manila Philippines 10.80 13.40
*http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2006_1.html** http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_2020_1.html
4
Motorization in AsiaMotorization in Asia (Passenger Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 Population (1980, 2002 an(Passenger Vehicle Ownership per 1,000 Population (1980, 2002 and 2020)d 2020)
Source : APREC Analysis 2006
5
Effect of the US$ 2500 Tata Nano Effect of the US$ 2500 Tata Nano ““PeoplePeople’’s Cars Car””??
Effects of CO2 reduction targets in urban passenger transport sector
during 2006-2030: Case of 3 cities in Asia
Beijing Delhi
Jakarta
7
Scenario description
BAU: vehicle stock projection based on GPD and population growth.
Base case: Vehicle mix based on least cost vehicular choice model. Modal shift limited to road transport options. (2006-2030)
ET15: Emission reduction target fixed at 15% from the Base case (2006-2030)
8
Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Beijing
Buses Cars
2 Wheelers
Beijing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f bus
es/1
000
pers
on BAUBase CaseET15%
Beijing
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f car
s/10
00 p
erso
n BAUBase CaseET15%
Beijing
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f 2w
heel
ers/
1000
per
son
BAUBase CaseET15%
Car ownership is assumed to be 150 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case- Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases in the base case
9
Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Jakarta
Buses Cars
2 Wheelers
Jakarta
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f bus
es/1
000
pers
on BAUBase CaseET15%
Jakarta
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f car
s/10
00 p
erso
n BAUBase CaseET15%
Jakarta
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f 2w
heel
ers/
1000
per
son
BAUBase CaseET15%
Car ownership is assumed to be 110 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case- Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases
10
Number of vehicles per 1000 people in Delhi
Buses Cars
2 Wheelers
Delhi
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f bus
es/1
000
pers
on BAUBase CaseET15%
Delhi
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f car
s/10
00 p
erso
n
BAUBase CaseET15%
Delhi
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Num
ber o
f 2w
heel
ers/
1000
per
son
BAUBase CaseET15%
• Car ownership is assumed to be 150 per 1000 persons by 2030 in the base case
• Bus ownership increases, 2 wheeler ownership decreases
11
Total Energy Requirement in different scenarios
Jakarta
020406080
100120140160180200
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t, m
illion
GJ
BAUBasecaseET15
Delhi
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t, m
illion
GJ
BAUBasecaseET15
Beijing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t, m
illion
GJ
BAUBasecaseET15
• Lower energy requirement in the base case and emission reduction case
12
CO2 emission in 3 cities
Beijing
0
1000
20003000
4000
5000
60007000
8000
9000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
onkt
on
BAUBasecaseET15
Jakarta
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
onkt
on
BAUBasecaseET15
Delhi
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
onkt
on
BAUBasecaseET15
• In 2030, CO2 emission in the base case and ET15 are 1.57 and 1.33 times the 2006 CO2 emission in Beijing;
• Corresponding figures are 3.49 and 3.04 in Jakarta; and 3.85 and 3.37 in Delhi
13
CO2 emission growth in 3 cities
Beijing
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
on, i
ndex
(200
6 =
1) BAUBasecaseET15
Jakarta
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
on, i
ndex
(200
6 =
1) BAUBasecaseET15
Delhi
0
0.5
11.5
2
2.5
33.5
4
4.5
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 em
issi
on, i
ndex
(200
6 =
1) BAUBasecaseET15
14
Average incremental CO2 abatement cost
114
246
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ET5 ET10 ET15
US $
per
ton
CO2
Abatement costs substantially higher at ET10 and ET15 in Jakarta and nearly same in ET5 and ET10 in Delhi 29
160
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
ET5 ET10 ET15
US $
per
ton
CO2
Jakarta
Delhi
Beijing
16
Fuel Mix in Beijing in different scenarios
Fuel Mix under Base Case in Beijing
0102030405060708090
100
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on G
J
LPG Gasoline ElectricityDiesel Biodiesel CNGHydrogen
Fuel Mix under ET15 in Beijing
01020304050
60708090
100
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on G
J
LPG Gasoline ElectricityDiesel Biodiesel CNGHydrogen
Emission reduction target of 15% would • reduce the share of LPG,CNG and diesel• increases the share of biodiesel run vehicles • Increases gasoline (hybrid vehicles)• Increases hydrogen fuel cell run vehicles
17
CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Beijing
CO2 reduction in ET15 in Beijing
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2, k
ton
Car BusTaxi MRT2-w heeler
Emission reduction would occur due to - cars (hybrid, fuel cell), taxi (hybrid, CNG) and buses (biodiesel).
18
Effects on emission of local pollutants under CO2 emission target in Beijing
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Beijing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
SO2
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Beijing
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
CO
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Beijing
0
1
1
2
2
3
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
PM10
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Beijing
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
NOx
CO2 reduction target would increases local pollutants due to- increased use of biodiesel and hybrid vehicles
19
Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Beijing
Bus Type under ET15 in Beijing
-2500-2000-1500-1000-500
0500
1000150020002500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Bus Gasoline Bus Diesel Bus CNGBus LPG Bus Bio-diesel Bus Electricity
Car Type under ET15 in Beijing
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Car Gasoline Car Diesel Car CNGCar LPG Car Hybrid Car Fuel CellCar Bio-diesel
Taxi Type under ET15 in Beijing
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Taxi Hybrid Taxi Gasoline Taxi DieselTaxi CNG Taxi LPG Taxi Bio-diesel
2 wheeler under ET15 in Beijing
-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle Gasoline
Biodiesel buses replace LPG and diesel buses; hybrid and fuel cell cars replace gasoline and LPG cars; hybrid and CNG taxies replace LPG taxi; fuel cell 2 wheelers replace gasoline 2 wheelers
Jakarta
21
Fuel Mix in Jakarta in different scenarios
Fuel Mix under Base Case in Jakarta
020406080
100120140160180200
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on G
J
LPG GasolineDiesel BiodieselCNG Electricity
Fuel Mix under ET15 in Jakarta
020406080
100
120140160180200
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M
illion
GJ
LPG GasolineDiesel BiodieselCNG Electricity
Emission reduction would require- reduction of LPG use- increase in biodiesel use
22
CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Jakarta
CO2 reduction in ET15 in Jakarta
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2, k
ton
Bus Car
2 Wheeler Taxi
CO2 reduction would occur mainly due to increased use of biodiesel buses, fuel cell cars and 2 wheelers, and hybrid taxis.
23
Effects on emission of local pollutants under CO2 reduction target in Jakarta
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Jakarta
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
SO2
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Jakarta
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
CO
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Jakarta
-1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
PM10
Increase in Pollutants under ET15 in Jakarta
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
0
1
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
kton
NOx
Emission reduction target might increase some local pollutants emission and decrease emission of the others.
24
Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Jakarta
Changes in Bus Types under ET15 in Jakarta
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Bus Gasoline Bus Diesel Bus CNGBus LPG Bus Bio-diesel Bus Electricity
Changes in Car Types under ET15 in Jakarta
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Car Gasoline Car Diesel Car CNGCar LPG Car Hybrid Car Fuel CellCar Bio-diesel
Changes in Taxi under ET15 in Jakarta
-2500-2000-1500-1000-500
0500
1000150020002500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Taxi Gasoline Taxi Diesel Taxi CNGTaxi LPG Taxi Hybrid Taxi Bio-dieselTaxi Electricity
Changes in 2 wheeler under ET15 in Jakarta
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle Gasoline
Biodiesel buses would replace LPG and diesel buses; fuel cell cars would replace LPG cars; hybrid taxis would replace LPG and gasolien taxis; and fuel cell 2 wheelers would replace gasoline 2 wheelers.
Delhi
26
Fuel Mix in Delhi in different scenarios
Fuel Mix under Base Case in Delhi
020406080
100120140160180200
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on G
J
LPG Gasoline DieselBiodiesel CNG ElectricityHydrogen
Fuel Mix under ET15 in Delhi
0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M
illion
GJ
Biodiesel Electricity DieselCNG Hydrogen LPGGasoline
CO2 emission reduction would require reduced use of LPG vehicles, and increased use of biodiesel vehicles
27
CO2 emission reduction by vehicle type in Delhi
CO2 reduction in ET15 from BC in Delhi
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2, k
ton
Bus CarTaxi 2-w heeler3-Wheeler
CO2 emission reduction would occur mainly due to the increased use of biodiesel buses, biodiesel cars, biodiesel and CNG taxis, and fuel cell motorcycles.
28
Role of climate friendly technologies in CO2 reduction scenario in Delhi
Changes in Car Types under ET15 in Delhi
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Car Gasoline Car Diesel Car CNGCar LPG Car Hybrid Car Fuel CellCar Bio-diesel
Changes in Taxi under ET15 in Delhi
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Taxi Gasoline Taxi Diesel Taxi CNGTaxi LPG Taxi Hybrid Taxi Bio-diesel
Changes in 2 wheeler under ET15 in Delhi
-1000-500
0500
10001500
20002500
30003500
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M
illion
v-k
m
Motorcycle Fuel CellMotorcycle 4SMotorcycle 2S
Biodiesel buses replace LPG buses; biodiesel cars would replace LPG cars; CNG and biodiesel taxies would replace LPG taxis; and fuel cell motorcycles would replace gasoline motorcycles
Changes in Bus Types under ET15 in Delhi
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milli
on v
-km
Bus Diesel Bus CNG Bus LPG Bus Bio diesel
29
Concluding Remarks
Passenger kilometer travel demand projection a major taskEmerging technologies and the fuels (fuel cells, hybrid vehicles, biofuels) would play important role in emission reduction.Average incremental abatement cost high at above 5% emission reduction target.The role of Mass Rapid Transport System need to assessed
Thank you!