Urbanization & Land UseUrbanization & Land UseEcology & DesignEcology & DesignE.G. Arias et alE.G. Arias et alOctober 12, 2004October 12, 2004

Today’s AgendaToday’s AgendaAnnouncementsAnnouncements– Test 1Test 1– Next Lecture – Energy & Sustainability, Dr. Next Lecture – Energy & Sustainability, Dr.

Dave Schaller, EPADave Schaller, EPA

Conclude PrimerConclude Primer

Urbanization and Land Use PlanningUrbanization and Land Use Planning

Population Growth, Cities & Urban Growth

POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH Exponential growth rate over the past 200 yearsExponential growth rate over the past 200 years

Up to 1800 - Up to 1800 - 1B1BUp to 1900 - Up to 1900 - 1.7B1.7BUp to 2000 - Up to 2000 - 6+B6+B

0.7B increase 1800-19000.7B increase 1800-19004.3B increase 1900-20004.3B increase 1900-2000

URBANIZATION URBANIZATION CONCENTRATION IN CITIES CONCENTRATION IN CITIESApproximately Approximately halfhalf of the 6B people lived in cities in of the 6B people lived in cities in 20002000Projections indicate that Projections indicate that 49.3%49.3% of the total world of the total world population will live in urban centers of all Developing population will live in urban centers of all Developing countries by 2015countries by 2015

Cities, Population & World Trends: The Less Developed and Developing Nations

Cities,, Population & World Trends: The Less Developed and Developing Nations

URBANIZATION RATES URBANIZATION RATES

1900 - 1900 - less than .3Bless than .3B

2000 - 2000 - around 3Baround 3B (UNCHS, 2001b) (UNCHS, 2001b)

URBANIZATION RATES ARE UNEVENLY URBANIZATION RATES ARE UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTEDDISTRIBUTED

Industrialized nationsIndustrialized nations: : declinedecline to from to from 1.1% 1.1% 0.6%0.6% between 1995 and 2015, between 1995 and 2015,

Least Developed nationsLeast Developed nations: as much as : as much as 4.6% 4.6% annual urbanization ratesannual urbanization rates projected to 2015 projected to 2015

Cities, Population & World Trends: The Less Developed and Developing Nations (continued)

GLOBALIZATION GLOBALIZATION : : A new trend evolving from the economic A new trend evolving from the economic

sectorsector

Inevitable outcomesInevitable outcomes

social exclusionsocial exclusion - increase the - increase the “probability of land speculation, “probability of land speculation, and therefore, of increased land prices”and therefore, of increased land prices” (UNCHS, 2001a). (UNCHS, 2001a).

Human developmentHuman development - such trend, without institutional interventions, - such trend, without institutional interventions, most likely will increase difficulties for the urban poor in less developed most likely will increase difficulties for the urban poor in less developed and developing nationsand developing nations

Protect and repair the environmentProtect and repair the environment - is precisely in these countries - is precisely in these countries were squatter communities are now home from 30 to 60 percent of were squatter communities are now home from 30 to 60 percent of their urban populationstheir urban populations

Planning in the Third World - 1950’s Planning in the Third World - 1950’s – 1st and 2nd worlds 1st and 2nd worlds – 3rd world - everything else 75% of the human race3rd world - everything else 75% of the human race

UN HABITAT - 2000UN HABITAT - 2000– DevelopedDeveloped– Developing Developing – Less DevelopedLess Developed

Future challenges – Poverty and …Future challenges – Poverty and …– Housing is the major concernHousing is the major concern– FoodFood– TransportationTransportation– WaterWater– EnergyEnergy– Environment - AirEnvironment - Air– EducationEducation

Evolution of Views about Planning in the World

Urban FormUrban FormClassical Theories of urban form (at city level)Classical Theories of urban form (at city level)

Concentric Growth Theory (E. Burgess, 1925)Concentric Growth Theory (E. Burgess, 1925): tries to explain the : tries to explain the patterns of sociological phenomena in Chicago, and how a city with patterns of sociological phenomena in Chicago, and how a city with a main CBD expands through rings of residential growth in all a main CBD expands through rings of residential growth in all directions from it;directions from it;

Multi-sector Theory (H. Hoyt, 1939): Multi-sector Theory (H. Hoyt, 1939): extended the concentric extended the concentric theory and explains how similar types of land use are developed theory and explains how similar types of land use are developed along transportation axes;along transportation axes;

Multiple nuclei Theory (Harris and Ullman, 1945): Multiple nuclei Theory (Harris and Ullman, 1945): growth takes growth takes place around different urban centers (historic or contemporary) place around different urban centers (historic or contemporary) approximating a constellation pattern of development.approximating a constellation pattern of development.

Planning / Design scales

National

Regional

Local

Site

Planning / Design scales

National

Regional

Local

Site

Activities

Physical Systems

Physical Systems

Socials Systems

Socials Systems

In situ reality-Settings Processes ResultsRenewable

Non Renewable

Recoverable

Population Economics Political CulturalNatural Created

Location analysis decision PrototypesLocation analysis decision Prototypes

A

One Activity

Attribute/characteristic

Various locations

21

3

A DCB

Many Activities

Attribute /Characteristic

Same Location

1

Many Activities

Attribute /Characteristic

Reality

Various locations

1

2 3

A B C D

Understanding Urbanization DynamicsUnderstanding Urbanization Dynamics Local Local Global Linkages Global Linkages

Re-location at national scale

ScalesNational Global Local/regionalNew activity/service

locates

Re-location

Drop out

•Social•Political•Economic•Cultural

Growth

Stability

Decline

On-going processes

Land Use Land Use Level ILevel I– Urban / Agriculture / Rangeland / Forested Urban / Agriculture / Rangeland / Forested

uplands / Water / Wetlands / Barrenuplands / Water / Wetlands / Barren

Level II - UrbanLevel II - Urban– Residential / Commercial & Services / Industrial / Residential / Commercial & Services / Industrial /

Transportation / Communications & Utilities / Transportation / Communications & Utilities / Institutional / Recreational / Mixed Use / Open land & Institutional / Recreational / Mixed Use / Open land & Other Other

Level III - ResidentialLevel III - Residential– Single unit, low density (<2 DUs) / SU med. density Single unit, low density (<2 DUs) / SU med. density

(2-5) / SU high density (< 6)(2-5) / SU high density (< 6)– Multiple dwelling, low rise (2 stories), high rise (3 Multiple dwelling, low rise (2 stories), high rise (3

stories or more) designated by userstories or more) designated by user

Source: J. DeChiarra/L. Koppelman, Source: J. DeChiarra/L. Koppelman, Urban Urban Planning & Design CriteriaPlanning & Design Criteria

Census – Population Data Census – Population Data

Understanding Urbanization Dynamics in Developing and Developed Contexts:Integration of Remote Sensing and In Situ Information for Growth Management

START Workshop Module on Cities & SustainabilityE.G. Arias, R. Pujol and A. Sanchez

Relationship 3

1. Satellite Remote sensing data1,2,3

(time – series)

3. Events and Policy ActionsInstitutional reform;Economic globalization and localization;Changes in public policy;Development strategy shifting;Tourism diversification;Agricultural subsidization;

1970

1980

1990

Relationship 1 Relationship 2

2. GIS Ground Information

Natural System (eg. )

Rivers and water basin;Open space;Forested area & vegetation;Geological conditions;Rainfall;Meteorological conditions;Hydrological;

CREATED SYSTEMS

Physical Non - physical

Land useResidentialIndustrialCommercialTransportationInfrastructure SystemsEnvironmentalAir Climate

DemographicSocio/ EconomicPoliticalLegalAdministrative

DENVER METROPOLITAN & REGIONAL URBAN GROWTH &

LAND USE AND URBANIZATION IN BOULDER COUNTY

A2

A1

The Susceptibility to Change (STC)The Susceptibility to Change (STC)Recycling the City : Identifying the Development Suitability Recycling the City : Identifying the Development Suitability

Group Locational Alternatives7 or more yrs

1-2 yrs

3-6 yrs

PROBABILITIES CRITICAL

COALITION

(interest groups)

Political

Social

GIVENS

Economic

A1

A1

A1

LOCATION ALTERNATIVES

1

2

3

A1 A2

Locational Suitability for Redevelopment:

The Recycled City

SHORTEST DISTANCE

DECREASE TIME

NOTION OF MOVEMENT : OBECTIVES & CONCEQUENCES

Destinations

Industry

Recreation

Education

Spatial fragmentation

Social fragmentation

Origins OriginsEnvironmental integrity

Increase Distance and Decrease Time

The origins and destinations relationship is regulated by land-use instruments (zoning or growth management) which limit the type, density and location of urban activities and land use; or by the carrying capacity of systems that sustains such activities.

growth management

LEVELS OF KNOLEDGE MODEL FOR LEVELS OF KNOLEDGE MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AND ENERGY USE IN CITIES

VEHICLE

CITY

REGIONAL

WHOLE CITY

URBAN PLANNING

WITHIN VEHICLE

(MECHANICAL ENGINEERING)

VEHICLE TO VEHICLE

(TRAFFIC ENGINEERING)

ZONES OF CITY

(TRANSPORT PLANNING)

Kenworthy, J.R. and Newman, P.W.G. (1989)

Public transportationPublic transportation

+/- 39% of operating cost of public transportation is paid by fares +/- 39% of operating cost of public transportation is paid by fares 60% of cost is paid by Governments60% of cost is paid by Governments

Private (Car)Private (Car)

Paid mostly by owners (purchase, fuel, maintenance, insurance, Paid mostly by owners (purchase, fuel, maintenance, insurance, parking etc.)parking etc.)

Public roads and highways are paid by a variety of taxes Public roads and highways are paid by a variety of taxes Charges on licenses, registration, gas taxes, Charges on licenses, registration, gas taxes,

Highway Trust FundHighway Trust FundFunding for Federal highways constructionFunding for Federal highways construction

ECONOMICS of TRANSPORTATIONECONOMICS of TRANSPORTATION

Source: Contemporary Urban PlanningJ. Levy (2003).

Emerging insights in D&P, Land Emerging insights in D&P, Land Use and UrbanizationUse and Urbanization

Sustainability Sustainability Equitable & SustainableEquitable & Sustainable

Unlimited resources Unlimited resources Finite ResourcesFinite Resources

Continuous growth & change Continuous growth & change

notions of evolutionnotions of evolution

Participatory designParticipatory design

Useful & Usable TechnologiesUseful & Usable Technologies

Looking Ahead: A Design/Planning Thought

The future is not out there to be discovered,

it needs to be designed and implemented by us … by you!!!