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Urbanization, Population, and the Opportunity for Ibadan to Develop. Building a strong city with a high quality of life. Urbanization in Nigeria. Ibadan’s Population Dynamics. Population & Development: the crucial links. What can we do?. Urbanization in Nigeria. Photo by meaduva. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Urbanization, Population, and the Opportunity for Ibadan to Develop
Building a strong city with a high quality of life
2
Urbanization in Nigeria
Ibadan’s Population Dynamics
Population & Development: the crucial links
What can we do?
3Photo by meaduva
Urbanization in Nigeria
4
Nigeria experienced and is still experiencing one of the fastest rates of urbanization in the world
With growth rates in urban areas almost double those in rural areas
Photo by Shiraz Chakera
5
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
80,779
162,394
Popu
latio
n (in
mill
ions
)
World Population Prospects 2009
Nigeria Urban/Rural Population
Urban Population
Rural Population
After 2010, Nigeria became more urban than rural
Focusing on the urban population is key to Nigeria meeting its overall economic and development goals.
Nigeria will not be able to meet its MDGs or Vision 2020 without addressing the growing urban population.
6
Photo by Bonnie NU
RHI
7
The National Urban Development Policy calls for: Providing adequate shelter for all Poverty reduction and economic empowerment Ensuring environmental sustainability Good governance and development
“The urbanization process is irreversible in Nigeria and must therefore be turned into opportunities for growth”
Presentation by Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Nigeria 2005
Nigeria has a Vision for Urban Development
8
Photo by Bonnie NU
RHI
However, there are challenges with policy implementation which is resulting in poor quality of life for city residents, especially among the urban poor.
One of the key challenges in policy implementation of the urbanization plan is the rapid growth in the population of cities.
This creates a situation where the government is unable to:• Maintain and expand infrastructure• Provide adequate, high quality social
services• Create an environment that is conducive to economic development
9
Ibadan’s Urban Population
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
10
•Ibadan South East
•Ibadan South West
•Ibadan North East
•Ibadan North
•Ibadan North West
Let’s focus on these urban areas:
11
1.5 million population in the 5 LGAs
33% of married women use a modern method of family planning
On average, each women has just under 4 children
More than 130 maternal deaths per year
Current Situation of Ibadan
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79
80+
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Population (thousands)
Age
in Y
ears
36% of the population are less than 15 years old
Source:
Age Structure2011 Population of Ibadan, projected using the 2006 census
12
FemaleMale
13
Population and Development
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
14
Photo by Bonnie NU
RHI
A much larger working age population comparedto the population in young dependent ages was akey factor in the Asian development miracle.
As families became smaller, dependency significantly declined.
Greater emphasis on population quality than quantity meant increased investments by the state
More and better educational opportunities emerged Greater productivity Investment in modern agriculture
Population and Economic Development are Linked
15
Vicious Circle
High Rates of Fertility
Very Young Population with Many Dependent
Children
Large Groups of Women Entering Reproductive Age
More Women Having Children
Larger Populations to be Supported
Need for More Infrastructure and Services to Meet Needs
of the Population
More and More Resources Needed
Struggle to Keep up with Current Services,
Inability to Expand
Lack of Opportunity
Poverty
Gender Inequality
Poor Health
IlliteracyFamily Planning
16Photo by Bonnie from NURHI
A key component to the success of the Asian tigers was investment in family planning
This led to improved quality of life and escalated economic development
17
Ibadan Urban Nigeria
Jordan Morocco Indonesia Thailand0
20
40
60
80
100
3326
42
55 57
80
Birt
hs p
er W
oman
(ave
rage
)
Modern Contraceptive UsePercentage of Married Women using a Modern Contraceptive Method
Source: NURHI/MLE Household Survey, 2011 and DHS and RHS Surveys
18
Less than 20% of women and less than 15% of men want a child in the next 2 years
1 in 4 women and 1 in 5 men do not want any more children
1 in 5 women have an unmet need for family planning
Less than 1 in 4 of the poorest women are using a modern method
Almost half of women say it would be a “big problem” if they were to become pregnant in the next few weeks
2011 NURHI/MLE Baseline Survey
Couples in Ibadan Want to Plan their Families
Ibadan has an opportunity to improve the quality of life of its population
Scenario 1: Maintain Current Trends What if things continued as they are now?
Scenario 2: Investment in Family Planning What will happen if there is an investment in family planning and unmet need is met?
2 Potential Futures:
20
Abuja FCT Kaduna Ilorin Ibadan Benin Zaria
NURHI aims to increase family planning by 20 percentage points in each city by providing quality services that couples can access
Nigerian Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (NURHI) is a Project that is Supporting Quality Family Planning in 6 Nigerian Cities:
.
21
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
1,458,928
1,874,613
2,123,444
Num
ber o
f Peo
ple
(mill
ions
)
Total PopulationsActual and projected total populations of the Ibadan urban areas
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
Difference of more than 200,000 people
22
Impacts on Diff erent SectorsHealth Education
Infrastructure Economy
23Nigeria National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development : January 2004
“All stakeholders need to appreciate the linkages of population factors with broader development issues like housing, education, health, agriculture, energy, environment, gender concerns, food security and the security of life and property.”
24
Health
25
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1459
2123
1,875
Num
ber o
f Nur
ses
WHO 1:1,000 recommendation
Number of Nurses RequiredAssuming WHO standard of 1 nurse per 1,000 population
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
26
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
Hea
lth R
esou
rces
Req
uire
d(m
illio
ns) 60
mill
ion
Nai
ra s
aved
20
11–2
015 2,548
2,250
3.4 billion Naira saved 2011–2035
Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002
Health Resources RequiredBased on Per Capita Health Spending
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
27
Cumulative savings generated by achieving the NURHI Scenario
instead of the Base Scenario
Per Capita Spending in Health
2011–2015 Savings
2011–2035 Savings
Actual:1,200 Naira 60 million 3.4 billion
Recommended:5,100 Naira 254 million 14 billion
Human Resources for Health by African Health Workforce Observatory 2002
NURHI Health Savings 2015 & 2035Comparison between actual and recommended per capita spending
28Nigeria Millennium Development Goals: Report 2010
“The key challenges to reducing infant mortality include population, declining resources and wide geographic variations.”
Major challenges to reducing maternal mortality include “a dearth of skilled personnel and a shortage of family planning facilities”.
29
Family Planning Acts by Reducing Births in the Following Categories, Called the 4 Too’s:
Too young: women who give birth before age 18
Too old: women who give birth after age 35
Too many: more than 5 births
Too close: births spaced less than 24 months
Family Planning Eliminates Risky Births
30
Year Ibadan Base Projection
Ibadan NURHI Projection
2011 63 63
2015 62 52
2035 55 48
Nigeria DHS
Risky BirthsPercentage of births with any risk factor
High risk births can result in maternal and infant deaths and are very expensive to attend to at health facilities.
31
20112013
20152017
20192021
20232025
20272029
20312033
20350
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Num
ber o
f Mat
erna
l Dea
ths 766 Maternal Deaths Averted
2011–35
126
88
Number of Maternal Deaths
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
75 Maternal Deaths Averted 2011–15
32
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
4382
6,287
Num
ber o
f Und
er 5
Dea
ths
Number of Under 5 Deaths Deaths to Children 0-4 years
3,654 U5 Deaths Averted 2011–15
45, 065 U5 Deaths Averted
2011–15Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
33
Year Ibadan Base Projection
Ibadan NURHI Projection
2011 74 74
2015 71 49
2035 55 38
Infant Mortality RateNumber of deaths to babies less than 1 year old for every 1,000 births
Infant Deaths Averted:1,867 between 2011-201518,133 between 2011-2035
34
Reduction in the number of maternal, infant, and child deaths
Freed up resources that can be invested in strategies to improve quality and access to essential health services
Increase in life expectancy
Reduction in the strain on health staff and infrastructure
Health Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
35
Education
36
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000
200,000
300,000
197,910
246,985
179,168
Num
ber o
f Sch
ool A
ged
Child
ren
(tho
usan
ds)
Primary School Aged ChildrenNumber of Children Aged 6-11
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
37
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
6,597
8,233
5,972
Num
ber o
f Prim
ary
Teac
hers
Based on Ministry of Education Standards
Number of Primary Teachers RequiredBased on 1 teacher per 30 students
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
38
Graduate+NCE; 86.5%
Unspecified; 1.5%
Below NCE; 12.0%
Ibadan has a high percentage of qualified teachers.
National Bureau of Statistics: Social Statistics in Nigeria 2009
Quality of Primary Teachers
39
Current policy goes beyond universal primary education and has set a target of universal basic education.
40
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
332,819
406,769
296,228
Num
ber o
f Bas
ic E
duca
tion
Aged
Ch
ildre
n (t
hous
ands
)
Basic Education Aged ChildrenPrimary and Junior Secondary (Ages 6-15)
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
41
Reduction in the strain on teachers and infrastructure
Assist Ibadan in meeting the Education Sector goal of universal basic education
Freed resources that can be invested in strategies to improve the quality of education and prepare the next generation to participate in the global economy
Education Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
42
Infrastructure
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
43
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
416836
606698
535,604
Num
ber o
f Hou
ses R
equi
red
Housing Requirements for a Growing PopulationAverage household size of 3.5 people
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
Difference of 71,094
Spectrum Projections using data from NURHI/MLE Baseline Data, 2011
44
Annual Production of Waste (in kilograms)
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
244953843.3
356526247.6
314,747,523
Annu
al K
ilogr
ams o
f Was
te P
rodu
ced
(mill
ions
)
Babayemi et al. 2009
Solid Waste Generation
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
Photos by Bonnie NURHI
45
Reduction in the strain on housing requirements
Reduction in the amount of trash that is generated and improvement in the sanitation condition of the city
Likely lower the percentage of people living in slums or other forms of temporary housing
Infrastructure Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
46
Economy
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
47
20252026
20272028
20292030
20312032
20332034
20350
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Num
ber o
f New
Jobs
Req
uire
d
Spectrum Projection
New Jobs Required
Ibadan Base ScenarioIbadan NURHI Scenario
More than 70,000 fewer new jobs required 2025–2035
48
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
520,891
624,259
448,527
Num
ber o
f Chi
ldre
n D
epen
dent
s
MLE Survey 2011
Number of Child Dependents
Ibadan NURHI Projection
Ibadan Base Projection
49
“With a high population growth rate of 3.2%, the teeming population tends to exert a massive demand-pull on existing resources, thereby constraining the growth of the nation’s GDP per capita.”
Nigeria Vision 20:2020 Economic Transformation Blueprint
50
Reduction in the strain on employment requirements
Reduction in the number of dependents which will assist families to move out of poverty
Likely reduction in the percentage of people in the working ages that are unemployed
Economic Benefits of Investing in Family Planning
51
What Can We Do?
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
52
Couples in Ibadan want to plan their families, they want family planning
Photos by Bonnie NURHI
Improving access and utilization of high quality family planning services will:
Thereby support Ibadan in becoming the prosperous, developed, and thriving city it is intended to be.
Enable couples to achieve their own reproductive intentions (having the number of children they want, when they want them)…
Result in happy, healthier families, that are more economically secure…
Photo by Bonnie NURHI
Policy Response
54
Oyo state has an approved family planning policy
Pilot NHIS state offering free maternal and child health care
Adequate health infrastructure to provide family planning services
Presence of qualified health personnel
Wide acceptance of family planning
Started integration of family planning services into existing MCH U5/MDG Fund
Ibadan is Already Moving…
55
Implement the family planning component of the existing reproductive health policyShow commitment to preventing maternal and child deaths
The State Assembly should pass a bill that guarantees access to high quality family planning services for all people living in Ibadan/Oyo State
Increase budgetary allocation for family planning from 1M Naira to 10M NairaStock outs of family planning commodities continues to be a major barrier to access
Ensure the timely release of funds budgeted for family planning and guarantee their use for family planning servicesLack of funds is limiting access and uptake of family planning services
Speak out, and encourage others to speak out, supporting family planningFamily planning discussions should happen with multiple audiences, in many forums, with all decision-makers.
The more we talk about family planning, the more we all contribute to an environment where couples are able to meet their own reproductive intentions.
… but there is more to be doneImportant Next Steps
56
“Family Planning is something I support because we need to space our children, support safe motherhood and we need to take care of our children.”
Nigeria’s Minister of HealthNovember 2011