U.S. Challenges in the Middle East since 1990

Peter L. Hahn

Ohio State University

U.S. Challenges in the Middle East since 1990

• Persian Gulf War, 1990-1991

• Containment of Iraq, 1991-2003

• Rise of terrorism, 1980s-1990s

• Invasion of Afghanistan, 2001--

• Invasion of Iraq, 2003-2011

Persian Gulf War, 1990-1991

• Origins– Saddam Hussein and Iranian revolution– Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988– Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, August 1990

Persian Gulf War

• Origins• U.S. Responses

– Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield

Persian Gulf War

• Origins• U.S. Responses

– Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield

– Liberation of Kuwait: Operation Desert Storm• Air (Jan.-Feb. 1991)

• Land (Feb. 1991)

Persian Gulf War

• Origins• U.S. Responses

– Deterrence (re. Saudi Arabia): Operation Desert Shield

– Liberation of Kuwait: Operation Desert Storm• Air (Jan.-Feb. 1991)

• Land (Feb. 1991)

– Iraq Liberation deferred

Containment of Iraq

• Aims

Containment of Iraq

• Aims• Means

– Financial sanctions– Restrictions on military mobility– International inspections– Occasional military strikes

Containment of Iraq

• Aims• Means

– Financial sanctions– Restrictions on military mobility– International inspections– Occasional military strikes

• Assessment

Terrorism

• Global and historical context• Rise of Islamic fundamentalism

Terrorism

• Global and historical context• Rise of Islamic fundamentalism• Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda

Terrorism

• Global and historical context• Rise of Islamic fundamentalism• Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda• War below the radar

– Terrorist attacks– U.S. responses

Terrorism

• Global and historical context• Rise of Islamic fundamentalism• Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda• War below the radar• 9/11

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Background– Soviet invasion, 1979-1989– Civil war leading to Taliban control, 1989-

1997

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Background

• Low intensity war, 1998-2001– 1998 U.S. missile attacks– 1999 U.N. financial sanctions– 2001 assassination of Ahmad Shah Masood

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Background

• Low intensity war, 1998-2001

• Military conquest, 2001--– Post-9/11 U.S. assault, October 2001– NATO establishes ISAF, January 2002– NATO takes command of Kabul, 2004; whole

country, 2006

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Background• Low intensity war, 1998-2001• Military conquest, 2001--• State-building, 2001—

– Bonn summit 12/01 forms interim government– Loya Jirga elects Hamid Karzai as president, to

2004– Loya Jirga adopts constitution, 2004– Elections: pres.: 2004; parl.: 2005

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Background

• Low intensity war, 1998-2001

• Military conquest, 2001--

• State-building, 2001—

• Recent trouble– Taliban resurgence

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Recent trouble– Taliban resurgence– Political tensions

• Karzai re-elected 2009, but political instability• Opium production and corruption

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Recent trouble– Taliban resurgence– Political tensions– U.S. military dynamics

• Bush: “quiet surge,” 4,500 troops, 2008-9• Obama: 30K new troops (100K total), 12/09• NATO: in 2010, indicated departure by 2014• Nov 2011: U.S. talks with Karzai re. 10-year pact

U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan

• Recent trouble– Taliban resurgence– Political tensions– U.S. military dynamics– Peace talks with Taliban??

U.S. Invasion of Iraq

• Origins: Bush decision for war– Pitfalls of containment– Impact of 9/11– Fear of WMD– Personal and psychological factors

• Maneuvering toward war

U.S. Invasion of Iraq

• Origins: Bush decision for war

• Maneuvering toward war

• The Twenty-One Day War

U.S. Invasion of Iraq

• Origins: Bush decision for war• Maneuvering toward war• The Twenty-One Day War• Occupation– U.S. errors– Mounting insurgency– Surge, 2007—– Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces, 12/11– Balance sheet