US-China Barometer 2013John S. & Marilyn Long U.S.-China

Institute for Business & LawUniversity of California, Irvine

The stated purpose of the Long Institute is to “…develop important relationships between the U.S. and China...” Toward that end the Institute annually publishes the US-China Barometer, a measure of perhaps the most important relationship between countries in the world. The Barometer provides a multidimensional representation of the relationship based on a compilation of most recent and pertinent data. Public and political opinion are eschewed. Indeed, we would hope that objective metrics would influence opinions rather than vice-versa.

We have endeavored to collect and present the data objectively by using mostly third-party sources such as the World Bank. Where both American and Chinese sources exist we have discovered some substantial discrepancies – a good example is in Foreign Direct Investment. In the future we will collaborate with our colleagues in China toward determining the best ways to manage such discrepancies.

We are also considering developing a summary statistic combining the various measures as a sort of index of the relationship that might be compared over the years. However, this effort is thwarted in two ways: First, the mathematical problem is not trivial – combining the numbers is a bit like comparing apples, oranges, and puppies. Second, important details are lost in a summary statistic. So we deliver the Barometer as a 20-slide power-point presentation with interpretive notes (see below each slide)and the data sets (right click then choose “edit data”)imbedded. Users and viewers are most welcome to adapt the presentation to their own purposes. Just don’t change the data.

We expect and seek your criticism so that we might improve the Barometer in future years. Feel free to comment on our choice of metrics and our own biases that we have had trouble seeing. Please send your comments to John L. Graham at jgraham@uci.edu .

Differences

The presentation is broken down into two sections. The first presents important differences across the two countries. The hope is that the differences will subside with the continued economic integration of the U.S. and China. We also look forward to improvements in both countries on all dimensions.

GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)

Source: World Bank (WDI)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

United StatesChina

Source: World Bank (WDI)

Life expectancy at birth (years)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

United StatesChinaHong Kong SAR

Source: UNDOC.org

Homicide rate (per 100,000)

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

United StatesChina

Source: World Bank (WDI)

Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

United StatesChina

Source: World Bank (WDI)

Internet users (%)

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

United StatesChina

Source: World Bank (WDI)

Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)

19851988

19911994

19972000

20032006

20090

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

United StatesChina

Source: World Bank (WDI)

CO2 emissions (metric ton per capita)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

5

10

15

20

25

United StatesChina

Source: transparency.org

Corruption Perception Index (scores)

19851995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

United StatesChinaHong Kong SAR

Source: bsa.org/globalstudy

Piracy rates for computer software (% unlicensed use)

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

United StatesChinaHong Kong SAR

Source: World Bank (WDI)

Unemployment rates (%)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

United StatesChina

Interaction

The second group of slides presents measures of the increasing interaction of the two countries. In almost respects we see a strengthening of the bi-lateral relationship.

Source: census.gov

Trade in goods ($ billion)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

U.S. exports to ChinaChinese exports to U.S.

Source: census.gov

Total U.S.-China trade in goods and U.S. trade deficit in goods ($ billion)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Total tradeU.S. trade deficit

Source: databank.worldbank.org

Historical dollar/yuan exchange rate

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

yuan/dollar

Source: treasury.gov

Chinese holdings of U.S. treasuries ($ billion)

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20120

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Chinese holdings

Foreign direct investment ($ billion)

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

U.S. to ChinaChina to U.S.

Source: tinet.ita.doc.gov

Travel between countries (thousands of passengers)

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

20110

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

From United StatesFrom China

Source: iie.org

Educational exchange students

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

From United StatesFrom China

Source: mla.org

Chinese language training in higher education in U.S. (number of students)

1983 1990 1995 1998 2002 2006 20090

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

U.S. students

Source: patft.uspto.gov

U.S. patents granted to invention teams that include both American and Chinese citizens

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

U.S. patents granted

Source: wto.org

WTO complaints pending and settled

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4

6

8

10

12

pendingsettled