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U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 06 Dec 07
40
50
60
70
80
90
Au
g
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Dec 06 Dec 07
December Cotton FuturesDecember Cotton FuturesCents per Pound
SoutheastSoutheast 3,353 3,353 2,545 2,545 -24.1-24.1Mid-SouthMid-South 4,235 4,235 2,910 2,910 -31.3 -31.3 SouthwestSouthwest 6,835 6,835 5,970 5,970 -12.7 -12.7 WestWest 525 525 430 430 -18.1 -18.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 14,94814,948 11,85511,855 -20.7-20.7
ALL ELSALL ELS 326 326 292 292 -10.4 -10.4
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 15,274 15,274 12,147 12,147 -20.5-20.5
SoutheastSoutheast 3,353 3,353 2,545 2,545 -24.1-24.1Mid-SouthMid-South 4,235 4,235 2,910 2,910 -31.3 -31.3 SouthwestSouthwest 6,835 6,835 5,970 5,970 -12.7 -12.7 WestWest 525 525 430 430 -18.1 -18.1
ALL UPLANDALL UPLAND 14,94814,948 11,85511,855 -20.7-20.7
ALL ELSALL ELS 326 326 292 292 -10.4 -10.4
ALL COTTONALL COTTON 15,274 15,274 12,147 12,147 -20.5-20.5
2007 U.S. Planting Intentions2007 U.S. Planting Intentions
20062006 20072007 %% Actual Actual Intentions* Intentions* ChangeChange
20062006 20072007 %% Actual Actual Intentions* Intentions* ChangeChange
Thousand AcresThousand AcresThousand AcresThousand Acres
*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report*USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings Report
Million Bales
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
U.S. Cotton ProductionU.S. Cotton Production
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Beg Stocks Imports Production
U.S. Cotton SupplyU.S. Cotton Supply
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
U.S. Cotton DemandU.S. Cotton Demand
Million Bale Equivalents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07f
Cotton Other
Net Domestic Fiber ConsumptionNet Domestic Fiber Consumption
Percent
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Percent
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Cotton’s Share of Fiber ConsumptionCotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption
Million Bale Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07f
Million Bale Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07f
U.S. Cotton Textile ImportsU.S. Cotton Textile Imports
U.S. Cotton Content in Textile ImportsU.S. Cotton Content in Textile ImportsMillion Bale Equivalents
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Non-U.S. Cotton ROW NAFTA CBI
Million Bale Equivalents
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Non-U.S. Cotton ROW NAFTA CBI
U.S. Trade With MexicoU.S. Trade With MexicoMillion Bales
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Imports Exports
Million Bales
0
1
2
3
4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Imports Exports
U.S. Imports from ChinaU.S. Imports from ChinaMillion Bales
0
1
2
3
4
5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Million Bales
0
1
2
3
4
5
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
U.S. Cotton Mill UseU.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)(Crop Year, Million Bales)
Million Bales
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f**USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Exports Mill Use Production
U.S. Cotton Production & Use
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
The World Market The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports& U.S. Cotton Exports
Million Bales
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
Million Bales
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Net Imports Production Use Stocks
China Cotton Supply & UseChina Cotton Supply & Use
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
World Cotton ProductionWorld Cotton ProductionMillion Bales
0
25
50
75
100
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Million Bales
0
25
50
75
100
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e
Cotton Polyester
Million Bales
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e
Cotton Polyester
World Fiber Mill UseWorld Fiber Mill Use
*PCI
Cents per Pound
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
-04
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
No
v-04
Mar
-05
Jun
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Au
g-0
6
No
v-06
Mar
-07
"A" FE Index
Asian Polyester Staple
Fiber PricesFiber Prices
Million Bales
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Production Use
Million Bales
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Production Use
Foreign Cotton Production & UseForeign Cotton Production & Use
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
U.S. Cotton ExportsU.S. Cotton ExportsMillion Bales
0
2
46
8
10
12
1416
18
20
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
Million Bales
0
2
46
8
10
12
1416
18
20
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
World Cotton Ending StocksWorld Cotton Ending Stocks
Million Bales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
U.S. ROW China
Million Bales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06e 07f*
U.S. ROW China
*Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates*Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
U.S. Supply and DemandU.S. Supply and DemandMillion BalesMillion Bales
Beginning Stocks 6.05 9.20Production 21.57 20.00Imports 0.02 0.00
Total Supply 27.63 29.20
Mill Use 4.95 4.50Exports 13.50 18.00
Total Offtake* 18.45 22.50
Ending Stocks 9.20 6.70Stocks-to-Use Ratio 49.9% 29.8%
2006/07 2007/08
*Includes unaccounted **Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates**Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
Beginning Stocks 53.80 52.59Production 116.79 117.00Imports 38.30 45.50
Mill Use 121.88 125.00Exports 37.79 45.00
Ending Stocks 52.59 49.09Stocks-to-Use Ratio 43.1% 39.3%
World Supply and DemandWorld Supply and DemandMillion BalesMillion Bales
2006/07 2007/08
**Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates**Based on USDA 2007 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates
THANK YOU
2007 ACSA CONVENTION2007 ACSA CONVENTION
• FOUR SEASONS HOTELFOUR SEASONS HOTEL
• IRVING, TEXASIRVING, TEXAS
• MAY 24MAY 24THTH – MAY 26 – MAY 26THTH , 2007 , 2007
• FOUR SEASONS HOTELFOUR SEASONS HOTEL
• IRVING, TEXASIRVING, TEXAS
• MAY 24MAY 24THTH – MAY 26 – MAY 26THTH , 2007 , 2007
