Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
US Economic Briefing:Consumer Price Inflation
Yardeni Research, Inc.
February 11, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Consumer Prices 1-3Services & Goods 4Durable & Nondurable Goods 5Vehicles 6Furniture & Airlines 7Medical Care 8-9Rent 10-12Health Insurance 13Alternative CPI Measures 14-15Misc. 16-26
Figure 1.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(3-month percent change, saar)
Latest (2.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXEXCLUDING FOOD & ENERGY
Latest (1.0)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR
Latest (1.8)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2
0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOREXCLUDING FOOD & ENERGY
Latest (1.3)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Consumer Prices
Page 1 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Jan
CPI
Ex Food & Energy (1.4)Total (1.4)
Note: Dotted line is the Fed’s official 2% inflation target for the personal consumption expenditures deflator measure of inflation.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)
PCEDHeadline (1.3)Core* (1.5)
* Excluding food and energy prices.Note: Dotted line is the Fed’s official target set during January 2012.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
Consumer Prices
Page 2 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Total
PCED* (1.3)CPI (1.4)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Excluding Food & Energy
PCED* (1.5)CPI (1.4)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
Consumer Prices
Page 3 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Services
PCED* (1.9)CPI (1.3)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer GoodsCPI (1.4)PCED* (-0.3)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
Services & Goods
Page 4 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan
Dec
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Durable GoodsCPI (3.5)PCED* (1.3)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Nondurable GoodsCPI (0.7)PCED* (-0.9)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
Durable & Nondurable Goods
Page 5 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
New VehiclesCPI (1.4)PCED* (2.1)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Jan
Used CarsCPI (including used trucks) (10.0)PCED* (9.1)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
Vehicles
Page 6 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Furniture & BeddingCPI (1.5)PCED* (1.4)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
AirfaresCPI (-21.3)PCED* (-24.6)
yardeni.com
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 15.
Furniture & Airlines
Page 7 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 16.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
Dec
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Medical Care
PCED* (2.6)CPI (1.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Dec
Hospitals
PCED* (3.6)CPI (2.9)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec
Physician Services
PCED* (1.0)CPI (3.4)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dec
Prescription Drugs
PCED* (-2.4)CPI (-2.4)
*Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Medical Care
Page 8 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
JanDec
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Medical Care ServicesCPI (2.9)PCED* (2.6)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Medical Care CommoditiesCPI (-2.3)PCED* (-2.3)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
Medical Care
Page 9 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Rent Of PrimaryResidence
CPI (2.1)PCED* (2.5)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Owners’ Equivalent RentOf Primary Residence
CPI (2.0)PCED* (2.2)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
Rent
Page 10 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: RENTS(yearly percent change)
Jan
CPI Rent IndexesRent of Shelter (1.6)Owners Equivalent Rent (2.0)Tenant Rent (2.1)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Price IndexTotal (1.4)Excluding Homeowners’ Rent (1.2)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
Rent
Page 11 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
JanJan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
CPIEx Food & Energy (1.4)Ex Food, Energy& Shelter (1.3)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
CPIEx Food & Energy (1.4)Ex Food, Energy& Homeowners’ Equivalent Rent (1.2)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
Rent
Page 12 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-10
0
10
20
30
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Health Insurance (2.9)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Dec
CPI & PPI: ELECTRICITY(yearly percent change)
Consumer Price Index (1.5)Producer Price Index (0.1)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Health Insurance
Page 13 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
Jan
ALTERNATIVE CPI MEASURES(yearly percent change)
Cleveland Fed’sMedian CPI (2.1)
Cleveland Fed’sTrimmed-Mean CPI (2.0)
Atlanta Fed’sSticky CPI (1.7)
Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Atlanta.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
ACTUAL INFLATION RATE & WIDELY-USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE
Expected Inflationin 10-YearTIPS Yield* (2.2)
Consumer Price Index(yearly percent change)(1.4)
* Nominal 10-year US Treasury bond yield minus 10-year TIPS yield.Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
Alternative CPI Measures
Page 14 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)
Market-Based PCED*
Core (1.3)Total (1.2)
* Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludesmost implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenses of nonprofit institutionsserving households.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE MEASURES(yearly percent change)
Consumer Price IndexCleveland Fed Median CPI
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
Alternative CPI Measures
Page 15 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-.5
.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(3-month percent change, saar)
Total (2.7)
Excluding food & energy (1.0)
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 31.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
JanINFLATION MEASURES(yearly percent change)
Wireless Telephone ServicesCPI (4.0)PCED* (-3.2)
yardeni.com
* Personal consumption expenditures deflatorSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 32.
Misc.
Page 16 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
VolckerRate Shock
ReaganFires PATCO
End OfCold War
ChinaJoins WTO
AmazonGoes Public
WalmartGoes Public Oldest
Baby BoomersTurn 65
Amazon WebServices
WidespreadFrackingBegins
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Jan
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 33.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Jan
CPI Goods
Ex Food & EnergyCommodities (1.7)
Total (1.5)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
Misc.
Page 17 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Dec
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Consumer GoodsUS Import Price IndexEx Energy (0.2)CPI: GoodsEx Food &Energy (1.7)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
JanJan
CPI Services
Ex Energy Services (1.3)Total (1.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
Misc.
Page 18 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Rent Of PrimaryResidence
CPI (2.1)PCED* (2.5)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Owners’ Equivalent RentOf Primary Residence
CPI (2.0)PCED* (2.2)
* Personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
Misc.
Page 19 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
CONSUMER vs PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES
GoodsPPI: Final Demand (0.2)CPI (1.5)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY(yearly percent change)
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 40.
Misc.
Page 20 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
VolckerRate Shock
ReaganFires PATCO
End OfCold War
ChinaJoins WTO
AmazonGoes Public
WalmartGoes Public
OldestBaby Boomers
Turn 65
Amazon WebServices
WidespreadFracking
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXEX FOOD ENERGY
(yearly percent change)
Janyardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 41.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
JanJan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
CPI Rent of Shelter (1.6)CPI (1.4)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
Misc.
Page 21 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
JanJan
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
CPI Rent of Shelter (1.6)CPI Ex Food & Energy (1.4)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec
CONSUMER PRICES(yearly percent change)
Rent of ShelterCPI (1.6)PCED (2.2)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
Misc.
Page 22 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR EX FOOD & ENERGY(yearly percent change)
Fed’s Target
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 45.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTIONS EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS(yearly percent change)
Airfares (-24.6)Hotels & Motels (-11.2)
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 46.
Misc.
Page 23 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dec
PERSONAL CONSUMPTIONS EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS(yearly percent change)
Higher Education (0.7)Total (1.3)
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Figure 47.
Misc.
Page 24 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 48.
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 850
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:FOCUS ON THE 1970s
(yearly percent change)
CPICPI Ex Food & Energy
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Energy
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Food
yardeni.com
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Misc.
Page 25 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 852
12
22
32
42
52
627282
2
12
22
32
42
52
627282
WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 850
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
Average Hourly Earnings:Production & Nonsupervisory WorkersCPI Ex Food & Energy
Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 50.
Misc.
Page 26 / February 11, 2021 / US Economic Briefing: Consumer Price Inflation www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
http://blog.yardeni.com
http://blog.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.
