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The Rules of the Game Matter Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth by John W. Dawson and John J. Seater Journal of Economic Growth (2013) 18: Examined Economic Growth and Productivity
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U.S., Florida & MiamiEconomic Update
2016 Outlook SummitCoral Gables, FL
January 20th, 2016
The Rules of the Game Matter
They change the way the players play the game.
They can change the outcome of the game itself.
Freeze tag
The Rules of the Game Matter
• Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth
by John W. Dawson and John J. Seater• Journal of Economic Growth
(2013) 18:137-177
Examined Economic Growth and Productivity 1949-2005
The Rules of the Game Matter
• Results:
• Regulations have reduced real GDP growth an average of 2% per year.
• Real GDP in 2005 would have been $53.9 trillion instead of the $15.1 trillion
The Rules of the Game Matter
• 2013 CFR 175,000
• Dodd-Frank law 2,300 pages
– 22,296 pages of rules so far– Another 13,000 on the way
• Affordable Care Act
The Rules of the Game Matter
• Dan Gallagher, Commissioner of the SEC:
• “And really, to me, Bob, the burden isn’t necessarily as much as the regulations that came from Dodd-Frank. Some of them are just completely nonsensical. I mean, nothing to do with the financial crisis, aren’t really germane to the function of the SEC and that’s what happens when you get a runaway piece of legislation.”
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
150.0
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)
Total Nonfarm Employment
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)
Unemployment Rate
Is the Chinese economy a pagoda of cards?
Economy slowing Stock market plunge (again)
Desperate attempts to stop the decline
Depreciation of the Yuan
Global Factors - China
IMF revised down 2015 and 2016 world growth outlook 2015: 3.1%, 2016: 3.6%
Advanced economies
2015: 2.0%, 2016: 2.2%
Latin America/Caribbean sub 2% outlook
China continues to slow
Global Factors - ROW
Brazil – worst recession in 100+ years
Canadian recession 1st half 2015
Much stronger U.S. Dollar U.S. Dollar up nearly 55% against the
Brazilian Real over the past year
U.S. Dollar up more than 21% against the Canadian Dollar over the past year
Global Factors - ROW
Greece and the Euro All the Greek bailouts, haircut &
the election are stays of execution and not pardons
The Euro still facing greatest threat since inception.
Crisis on back burner again, for now.
Global Factors - Eurozone
Florida Housing MarketHousing market recovery continues
Double-digit price appreciation has returned
Investors chasing shrinking pool of distressed properties
Housing finance still an issue
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP% Change, Annual
Rate3.9 2.0 0.6 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.5
Consumer Price Index
% Change, Annual Rate
3.0 1.6 -0.8 0.0 2.1 2.4 2.6
Consumer Sentiment 94.2 90.7 90.9 92.1 92.6 92.3 92.6
Consumption% Change, Annual
Rate3.6 3.0 1.7 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.6
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast Will the Bankruptcy of Sky Mall
Put an End to Sky Mall™ Policies?
Sky Mall™ Policy:
An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome
U.S. Forecast
U.S. ForecastSky Mall™ Policies:
T.A.R.P.Foreclosure Prevention Act 2009ARRA of 2009Affordable Care ActDodd-Frank
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
U.S. Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
22000.0
21000.0
20000.0
19000.0
18000.0
17000.0
16000.0
15000.0
Florida Population(Thousands)
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
9000.0
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
Florida Construction Employment(Thousands)
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
1400.0
1300.0
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment
(Thousands)
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
1300.0
1200.0
1100.0
1000.0
900.0
800.0
Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment
(Thousands)
Florida Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
190.0
180.0
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
Florida Information Employment(Thousands)
Florida Forecast
2015-2018 Averages;Q4 2015 Forecast
Florida
Sector % Average Annual Growth
Construction 6.6
Professional & Business Services 3.7
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 3.4
Leisure & Hospitality 2.8Education-Health Services 2.6Manufacturing 1.0Financial 0.9State & Local Government 0.8Information 0.5Federal Government -0.2
Region Population GrowthAverage % Chg Rank
Florida 1.5 ---
Deltona 1.1 8
Gainesville 0.8 11
Jacksonville 1.4 5
Lakeland 1.1 9
Miami 1.1 7
Naples 2.5 1
Ocala 1.6 3
Orlando 2.1 2
Palm Bay 1.2 6
Pensacola 0.8 12
Tallahassee 1.1 10
Tampa 1.5 4
2015-2018 Averages;Q4 2015 Forecast
Region Employment GrowthAverage % Chg Rank
Florida 2.3 ---
Deltona 1.7 9
Gainesville 1.5 11
Jacksonville 2.0 8
Lakeland 2.0 6
Miami 2.0 7
Naples 3.0 1
Ocala 2.5 3
Orlando 2.9 2
Palm Bay 2.1 5
Pensacola 1.5 10
Tallahassee 1.5 12
Tampa 2.4 4
2015-2018 Averages;Q4 2015 Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateMiami Unemployment Rate
Miami Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
2700.0
2600.0
2500.0
2400.0
2300.0
2200.0
2100.0
2000.0
Miami Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Miami Payroll Employment
Miami Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
320000.0
300000.0
280000.0
260000.0
240000.0
220000.0
200000.0
Miami Real Gross Metro Product(Millions 2000 $)
Real Gross Metro Product
Miami Forecast
18171615141312111009080706050403020100
8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%
-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%-8.0%
-10.0%
Miami Real Personal Income(percent change year ago)
Real Personal Income
Miami Forecast
2015-2018 Averages;Q4 2015 Forecast
Miami
Sector % Average Annual Growth
Construction 6.4
Professional & Business Services 4.1
Leisure & Hospitality 2.4Education-Health Services 2.0Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.4Financial 0.7Information 0.5State & Local Government 0.5Manufacturing 0.3Federal Government -0.6
2016 Economic Outlook
Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
Director
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
(407) 823-1453
WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU
www.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith
Thank you
