Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.usfunds.com1.800.US.FUNDS
U.S. Global InvestorsSearching for Opportunities, Managing Risk
January 201211-772
History is Key to Future Success:Lessons Learned from Investment Cycles
Jeffrey Hirsch,President of the Hirsch OrganizationEditor-in-Chief Stock Trader’s AlmanacEditor Commodity Trader’s Almanac
Frank Holmes,CEO and Chief Investment OfficerU.S. Global Investors
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
About U.S. Global Investors
3
Publicly traded company, traded on NASDAQ (GROW)
Headquartered in San Antonio, TX
Boutique investment management firm specializing in commodity-related equity strategies
Offers mutual funds focused in gold, precious metals and minerals, global resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure
Manages $2.45 billion in average AUM as of September 30, 2011
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
Focus on Education
4
28 MFEA STAR Awards for Excellence in Education
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 5
“Performance and Results Oriented”
Winner of 29 Lipper performance awards,certificates and top rankings since 2000
(Four out of 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to 2008, six out of 13 received certificates from 2000 to 2007,
and two out of 13 received top rankings from 2009 to 2010.)
Investment leadership results in performance
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 66
U.S. Global InvestorsInvestment Process
We use a matrix of “top-down” macro models and “bottom-up” micro stock selection models to determine weighting in countries, sectors and individual securities.
We believe government policies are a precursor to change. We monitor and track the fiscal and monetary policies of the world’s largest countries both in terms of economic stature and population.
We focus on historical and socioeconomic cycles, applying both statistical and fundamental models, including “growth at a reasonable price” (GARP), to identify companies with superior growth and value metrics.
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 7
Government Policy Model —Precursor for Change
President Barack ObamaBen Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 88
U.S. Global InvestorsInvestment Process
We overlay these explicit knowledge models with the tacit knowledge obtained by domestic and global travel for first-hand observation of local and geopolitical conditions, as well as specific companies and projects.
We use a matrix of statistical models to monitor market volatility and money flows, and as a result, we may at times maintain higher than normal cash levels.
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 9
Cycles – Principles of Continuous Revolution
Every cycle — irrespective of degree or significance — contains its own unique rhythm
From daily tides to the solar system, life is governed by the cyclical principle
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
10
45-Years of Research
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
11
Almanac Investing Philosophy
“Those who study market history are bound to profit from it!”
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
12
3 Keys Of Cycles
• Market Cycles Are Undeniable
• Not Exact - Basic Framework Of Moves
• Use In Conjunction With Other Analysis
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
13
Almanac Investing Process
• Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring Patterns• Current Trends• Technical Analysis• Fundamentals• Market Internals• Economy• Sentiment• Monetary and Government Policy
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
14
Major Investment Cycles• War & Peace and the Markets• Decennial Pattern• 4-Year Presidential Election/Stock
Market Cycle• Best Six Months November-April• January Barometer
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
15
Patterns In Play Now• 4-Year Presidential Election Stock Market Cycle• Best 3 Months/Best 6 Months – October Seasonal
Buy S&P, DJIA, NAS, R2K• January Effect Missing - Small Caps Not Beating• Santa Claus Rally, First 5 Days• January Barometer, December Low Indicator• Long Copper, Oil and Gas: Winter-Summer• Early-Mid January S&P Short – Setting Up Nicely
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
16
Next Super Boom
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
17
Next 15 Years DJIADow Jones Industrials 2009-2025
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
DJI Up 500%2009-2025
Sideways Market Launching Pad While Inflation Rises
Actual DJIA2009-2011
Inflation Levels Off
Super Boom Begins 2017-2018
US Withdrawsfrom Afghanistan
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
18
4-Year Election Cycle• 179-Year Saga• Gov’t Manipulates
Economy• Prime Pump 3rd Year• Most gains in
2nd half of term• Post & Midterm Bear
Markets• Dirty Work Early
* Based on annual close; Prior to 1886 based on Cowles and other indices; 12 Mixed Stocks, 10 Rails, 2 Industrials 1886-1889; 20 Mixed Stocks, 18 Rails, 2 Industrials 1890-1896; Railroad average 1897 (First industrial average published May 26, 1896)
DJIA Average Annual % Gain (1833-2011)*
2.0%
4.2%
10.4%
5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Post-Election
Mid-Term Pre-Election Election
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
19
No DJIA 3rd Year Loss• Since War-Torn 1939
Still No Loss For DJIA• No Midterm Bottom 1986
& 2006 - Usually Bottom Pickers Paradise
• 2009 Post-Election Bottom• Election Years Weaker• Pre-Election Stronger• Financial Crisis Impact
DJIA Average Annual % Gain (1941-2011)
4.5%5.9%
16.0%
4.7%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Post-Election
Mid-Term Pre-Election Election
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
20
Incumbent Party Wins & Losses
Dow Jones Industrials During Election Years Since 1901
–8
–4
0
4
8
12
16
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
All Election Years Since 1901Party In Power WinsParty In Power Ousted
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
21
2 Losses Last 7 Months
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
22
Sitting President Up For Reelection
Year Sitting President DJIA %1900 McKinley (R) 7.0 Won1904 T. Roosevelt (R) 41.7 Won T. Roosevelt took office after McKinley death1912 Taft (R) 7.6 Lost1916 Wilson (D) – 4.2 Won1924 Coolidge (R) 26.2 Won Coolidge took office after Harding death1932 Hoover (R) – 23.1 Lost1936 F. Roosevelt (D) 24.8 Won1940 F. Roosevelt (D) – 12.7 Won1944 F. Roosevelt (D) 12.1 Won1948 Truman (D) – 2.1 Won Truman took office after FDR death1956 Eisenhower (R) 2.3 Won1964 Johnson (D) 14.6 Won Johnson took office after Kennedy death1972 Nixon (R) 14.6 Won1976 Ford (R) 17.9 Lost Ford took office after Nixon Resigned1980 Carter (D) 14.9 Lost1984 Reagan (R) – 3.7 Won1992 G. H. W. Bush (R) 4.2 Lost1996 Clinton (D) 26.0 Won2004 G. W. Bush (R) 3.1 Won
Average % Gain 9.0 %# Up / # Down 14 / 5
Wins 10.7 %Losses 4.3 %
Election Year DJIA % Change Since 1900
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
23
2011 Near Textbook Year
• 2011 Forecast– Right On Target!
• DJIA +2.7% January– After 3 Nasty Losses
• April +4%• Best 6 Months
+15.2%
• April/May Top• 5 Monthly Losses
May-Sep• October Kills
Another Bear
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
24
2012 Annual Forecast• Reserved Outlook Next 6-8 Years• DJIA Reclaims Waterfall -12,700 Early 2012• Limited Upside From There• Geopolitical and Macro Economic Risks
– Europe Debt, Iran, U.S. Deficits, etc.• Seasonal Patterns Track Closely Again In 2012• First Half Top DJIA 13,000-13,500 - Summer Weakness• Weak Market Early Reduces Obama’s Chance, But
Increase Odds of Stronger Yearend Rally• Average Election Year Gains of 5-10%
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
25
Waterfall DeclinesLength DJIA
Start DJIA End DJIA Months % Change Date Months25-Jul-57 516.69 22-Oct-57 419.79 3.0 – 18.8% 11-Aug-58 9.8 Slightly longer rebound
24-Aug-60 641.56 25-Oct-60 566.05 2.1 – 11.8% 27-Jan-61 3.123-Apr-62 694.61 26-Jun-62 535.76 2.1 – 22.9% 18-Feb-63 7.9
8-Jul-66 894.04 7-Oct-66 744.32 3.0 – 16.7% 27-Apr-67 6.79-Apr-70 792.50 26-May-70 631.16 1.6 – 20.4% 30-Nov-70 6.38-Sep-71 920.93 23-Nov-71 797.97 2.5 – 13.4% 10-Feb-72 2.67-Aug-74 797.56 6-Dec-74 577.60 4.0 – 27.6% 14-Apr-75 4.3
11-Nov-77 845.89 28-Feb-78 742.12 3.6 – 12.3% 15-May-78 2.513-Feb-80 903.84 21-Apr-80 759.13 2.3 – 16.0% 14-Jul-80 2.87-May-82 869.20 12-Aug-82 776.92 3.2 – 10.6% 20-Aug-82 0.3 Small waterfall, fast rebound *6-Jan-84 1286.64 22-Feb-84 1134.21 1.6 – 11.8% Sideways for five months from
24-Jul-84 1086.57 29-Jan-85 6.3 waterfall to bear market bottom2-Oct-87 2640.99 19-Oct-87 1738.74 0.6 – 34.2% 31-Jul-89 21.7 Short/steep waterfall, very long rebound *
17-Jul-90 2999.75 11-Oct-90 2365.10 2.9 – 21.2% 17-Apr-91 6.317-Jul-98 9337.97 31-Aug-98 7539.07 1.5 – 19.3% 23-Nov-98 2.819-Jul-01 10610.00 21-Sep-01 8235.81 2.1 – 22.4% 11-Mar-02 5.7
22-Aug-02 9053.64 9-Oct-02 7286.27 1.6 – 19.5% 6-Jun-03 8.02-Jan-09 9034.69 9-Mar-09 6547.05 2.2 – 27.5% 23-Jul-09 4.5
21-Jul-11 12724.41 3-Oct-11 10655.30 2.5 – 16.3% At press time ** Not in averages. Averages 2.4 – 18.8% 5.3
Waterfall Decline Bear Market Return to WaterfallWaterfall Declines Since 1950
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
26
Waterfalls Since 1998Dow Jones Industrials Waterfall Declines 1998-2011
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
27
Flat 2011 – So What?
Close % Chg Year Close % Chg Close % Chg Close % Chg1248.29 3.0 2006 1280.08 2.5 1270.20 1.8 1418.30 13.6
46.67 2.6 1957 44.72 –4.2 47.37 1.5 39.99 –14.3247.08 2.0 1988 257.07 4.0 273.50 10.7 277.72 12.4167.24 1.4 1985 179.63 7.4 191.85 14.7 211.28 26.396.11 1.1 1979 99.93 4.0 102.91 7.1 107.94 12.392.15 0.1 1971 95.88 4.0 99.70 8.2 102.09 10.815.30 N/C 1948 14.69 –4.0 16.74 9.4 15.20 –0.7
1257.60 –0.003 2012 — — — — — —15.20 –0.7 1949 15.22 0.1 14.16 –6.8 16.76 10.3
459.27 –1.5 1995 470.42 2.4 544.75 18.6 615.93 34.158.11 –3.0 1961 61.78 6.3 64.64 11.2 71.55 23.1
2.3 7.6 12.8
S&P 500 Performance Following Flat (+3/-3%) Years Since 1930
Averages:
Prev. Yr January June December
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
28
62-Year Seasonal PatternS&P 500 Monthly % Performance
January 1950-2011
1.1%
– 0.2%
1.1%1.5%
0.2%
– 0.1%
0.9%
– 0.04%
– 0.6%
0.8%
1.5%1.7%
– 1.2%
– 0.6%
0.0%
0.6%
1.2%
1.8%
2.4%
3.0%
3.6%
4.2%
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
29
DJIA 1-Year Pattern (2011)
–8
–4
0
4
8
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern10-Year Pattern5-Year Pattern
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
30
Best Six MonthsAverage % Changein DJIA Since 1950
7.5%
0.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Best 6 Months Worst 6 Months
$10K Invested in DJIASince 1950
– $379
$609,071
-$100,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Best 6 Months Worst 6 Months
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
31
Best Six Months + TimingAverage % Changein DJIA Since 1950
– 1.1%
9.2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Best 6 Months Worst 6 Months
$10K Invested in DJIASince 1950$1,581,034
– $6,383
– $200,000
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
Best 6 Months Worst 6 Months
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
32
Santa Claus Rally• Last 5 Days + First 2 of New Year –
S&P Averages 1.5% Since 1950• If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call
Bears May Come to Broad & Wall• First Signal• Watch Other Indicators
– First 5 Days– January Barometer– Breach DJIA December Low in Q1
• (11,766.26 - 12/19/2011)– Price & Volume Action & Internals/
New Year Santa Rally Year1994 – 0.1% – 1.5% Flat1995 0.2% 34.1%1996 1.8% 20.3%1997 0.1% 31.0%1998 4.0% 26.7%1999 1.3% 19.5%2000 – 4.0% – 10.1% Bear2001 5.7% – 13.0%2002 1.8% – 23.4%2003 1.2% 26.4%2004 2.4% 9.0%2005 – 1.8% 3.0% Flat2006 0.4% 13.6%2007 0.0% 3.5%2008 – 2.5% – 38.5% Bear2009 7.4% 23.5%2010 1.4% 12.8%2011 1.1% – 0.003%2012 1.9% —
S&P 500 % ChangeLast 5 Days Of Year + 1st 2
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
33
First 5 Days• Early Warning• Easily Skewed• 33 of 39 Ups
Average Gain 13.6%• 12 of 23 Downs
Average Gain 0.2%• Election 13 of 15
Based on S&P 500
December January 5-Day YearClose 5th Day Change Change
1987 242.17 257.28 6.2% 2.0%1988 247.08 243.40 –1.5 12.41989 277.72 280.98 1.2 27.31990 353.40 353.79 0.1 –6.61991 330.22 314.90 –4.6 26.31992 417.09 418.10 0.2 4.51993 435.71 429.05 –1.5 7.11994 466.45 469.90 0.7 –1.51995 459.27 460.83 0.3 34.11996 615.93 618.46 0.4 20.31997 740.74 748.41 1.0 31.01998 970.43 956.04 –1.5 26.71999 1229.23 1275.09 3.7 19.52000 1469.25 1441.46 –1.9 –10.12001 1320.28 1295.86 –1.8 –13.02002 1148.08 1160.71 1.1 –23.42003 879.82 909.93 3.4 26.42004 1111.92 1131.91 1.8 9.02005 1211.92 1186.19 –2.1 3.02006 1248.29 1290.15 3.4 13.62007 1418.30 1412.11 –0.4 3.52008 1468.36 1390.19 –5.3 –38.52009 903.25 909.73 0.7 23.52010 1115.10 1144.98 2.7 12.82011 1257.64 1271.50 1.1 –0.003
THE FIRST-FIVE-DAYS-IN-JANUARY INDICATOR
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
34
January Barometer• Devised By Yale Hirsch in 1972• As S&P Goes in January, So Goes Year• Only 7 Major Errors: 88.7%, 8 Flat Errors: 75.8%• Doubters Go Before 20th Amendment• January 2008 was a heck of a Signal• 2009 Down Jan Signaled More Drop• Every Down Jan Since 1950: New or Cont. Bear,
10% Correction or Flat Year, Including 2010• Elections 11 of 15, 4 of 7 Down Years Wrong
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
35
Dr. CopperDecember Low – May Peak
–5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern5-Year Pattern
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
36
Copper (HG) Bars &Global X Copper Miners (COPX) Close
• Winter Const Lull
• Summer New Model
• Economic Indicator
• Const Up• China Soft
Landing• Feb 11 Top• Oct 11 Low
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
37
Oil - XOI
Seasonality Average % Return
Start Finish 15-Year 10-Year 5-Year
Dec (M) Jul (B) 13.2% 12.7% 7.3%
–6
–3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25-Year Pattern10-Year Pattern5-Year Pattern
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
38
SPDR Energy (XLE)• Bottomed
Oct 3 with Market
• 65 Support• 68.57 Buy
Limit Hit 11/17
• Better @ Monthly Pivot & TA
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
39
Natural Gas - XNG
Seasonality Average % Return
Start Finish 15-Year 10-Year 5-Year
Feb (E) Jun (B) 19.2% 14.4% 18.3%
–4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
17-Year Pattern10-Year Pattern5-Year Pattern
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
40
First Trust Nat Gas (FCG)• Look for
Feb Low • 17 Support• Better @
Monthly Pivot & TA
• Look to Buy 17-18
Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com
41
Thank YouJeffrey A. Hirsch is President of the Hirsch Organization, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, co-author of the Commodity Trader’s Almanac, editor of the Hirsch Organization flagship newsletter, the Almanac Investor, consulting editor on the Almanac Investor book series, and author of Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It.
Over the past 45 years, the Stock Trader's Almanac has established itself as the only investment tool of its kind that helps traders and investors forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence. To learn more about Almanac suite of products, please visit www.stocktradersalmanac.com.
The Stock Trader’s Almanac brand is part of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. www.wiley.com.
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772 42
Come Visit Us at…
Facebook: www.facebook.com/usfunds
Twitter: www.twitter.com/usfunds
Frank Talk: www.usfunds.com/franktalk
Investor Alert: www.usfunds.com/alert
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
U.S. Global Investors is Mobile
43
Get Investor Alert and Frank Talk On the Go
Visit www.usfunds.com/apps
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
Interested in More Information?
Our most popular research item is updated for 2012!
Get your free copy of The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns.
Send your address [email protected]
44
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
Thank You for Attending Today’s Webcast
Questions? Suggestions? We Look Forward to Hearing from You.
Visit Our Website: www.usfunds.com
Call Us.Investors: 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637)Financial Advisors: 1-800-873-3639
45
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
Disclosures
46
Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000. The Russell 3000 Index consists of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies as determined by total market capitalization. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The AMEX Oil Index (XOI) is a price weighted index designed to measure the performance of the oil industry through changes in the prices of a cross section of widely-held corporations involved in the exploration, production, and development of petroleum.
www.usfunds.comJanuary 2012 11-772
Disclosures
47
Holdings in the Global Resources Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2011: Conoco Phillips 0.00%, Exxon Mobile 0.00%, First Trust Natural Gas 0.00%, Global X Copper Miners 0.00%, Occidental Petroleum Corp. 1.57%, SPDR Energy 0.00%.
A stochastic oscillator is a technical momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a given time period. Thetheory behind this indicator is that in an upward-trending market, prices tend to close near their high, and during a downward-trending market, prices tend to close near their low. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices.