U.S. Hydropower

Resources and

Technology Needs

Brennan Smith, Ph.D., P.E.

Program Manager, Water Power Technology

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

German American Hydropower Business Conference

March 1, 2016

Nashville, Tennessee

A Research Perspective

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NNSA and other Offices

Cross-Technology

Independent Analysis

Energy Information Admin. (EIA)

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

Fossil Energy

Nuclear Energy

Office of Science

BPAWAPASWPASEPA

Office ofElectricity

Hydropower RD&D within the US-DOE

Marine &

Hydrokinetic

Technology

Development

Hydropower

Technology

Development

Market

Acceleration

& Deployment

Resource

Characterization &

Grid Integration

Wind

Technology

Development

Testing &

Certification

Wind and Water Power Technologies Office

(WWPTO)

Sta

tuto

ry &

Budgeta

ryS

tra

tegic

&

Fu

nctional

Corps and Reclamation RDD&D

Corps and Reclamation Energy &

Capacity

DOE/DOI/DOA

Hydropower MOU

R

D

D

&D

Research

Development

Demonstration

& Deployment

WWPTO “Key Activities”

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Scale, Resolution, Roles, and Uncertainty

in U.S. Hydropower DevelopmentS

cale

&

Co

mp

lexi

ty

Use

rs &

Use

s

Policy Analysis

Research Programming

Transmission Planning

Environmental Planning

Generation Planning

Project Developers

Site-Specific Feasibility

Technology Deployment

Project Developers

Increasing Detail

Decreasing Uncertainty

Roles

Modeling &

Remote Sensing

Site-Specific

Assessment

Cla

rity

&

Res

olu

tio

n

GovernmentIndustry

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• NHAAP is an integratedinformation platform :

– Scientific-based

– Knowledge Management System

– Robust research tool

– Provides most comprehensive and accurate hydropower information

National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program (NHAAP) is a synthesisof energy, water, ecosystem, and economics research and geospatial data created to enable robust investigation of existing and potential U.S. hydropower capacity.

NHAAP Public Portal

http://nhaap.ornl.gov/

The National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program

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Existing Assets

NHAAP Enables Investigation of Assets and Potential

Non-Powered Dams

New Stream-Reach

Assessment

Environmental Mitigation

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NHAAP enables analysis of configuration and context

Stream Classification Tool

Historic GenerationHydroGIS Viewer

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Hydropower Resource Potential

Computed geophysical

attributes are used to

assess approximate cost

and technology needs

under multiple development

scenarios

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Hydropower Variability in the Southeast U.S.

Dependent on Water Availability and Quality

Sources of Uncertainty:

Hydrologic – climate, weather, and runoff variability; measurement error, and

forecast error

Ecological – community and species variability, sampling error, science gaps,

adaptive management

Power System – net load variability, contingencies, forecast error

Machine – Unit performance uncertainty, forced outages, sensor error

Economic – pricing and fuel variability, forecast error, evolving markets

Regulatory and Policy – political uncertainty, rule-making, licensing, litigation

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NovAugMay

Downstream mixed temperature limit

Intake Temperature Safety Limit

Hourly Temperature Extremes

1976 - 2002 Range of Daily Avg Discharge at Chattanooga (RM 468.0)

Dis

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1976 - 2002 Range of Daily Avg Water Temperature at Sequoyah Nuclear Plant (RM 485.3)

1993 Daily Avg Temperature1994 Daily Avg Temperature

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Joint variability of flow and temperature

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Streamflow - cubic feet per second

Tennessee River at Chattanooga 1947 - 2004

Max. Avg. Daily Temperature vs. Max. Avg. Daily Streamflow

June - September

Mean Air Temperature

Hot - Dry

Number indicates year

• Who manages and bears

the risks of inadequate

energy or water?

• Who detects long-term

trends in inputs to energy

and water management?

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Integrated energy-water-environmental

planning is key to success!

Assessment Users:• Project developers

• Electric and water utilities

• Transmission planners

• NGOs and resource agencies

• Federal research programming

• Water and energy policy analysts

Non-Governmental Water &

Environmental Stewardship

Jurisdictional Challenges for U.S. Energy & Water Development,

Management, and Regulation

Federal, Regional,

State, and

Municipal Water

Authority,

Stewardship, and

Delivery

Power System Reliability Orgs NERC, WECC,

MRO, NPCC, SPP, TRE, SERC, FRCC

Electric

Utilities

PublicPrivate

US Power MarketsPJM, NY-ISO, ISO-NE,

SPP, CA-ISO, MISO,

ERCOT

Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission

Power Marketing

Administrations: BPA,

WAPA, SWPA, SEPA

ERCOT,

Eastern, Western

Interconnections

State Energy

Development Offices

(e.g. NYSERDA)

DOE Energy

Technology Research

Programs

(EERE, NE, FE, OE)

Energy Consortia

& Advocacy

(e.g. EPRI,

CEATI, NHA)

• Integrated energy-water-environmental

planning – is it possible and over what

scales?

• Robust policy solutions will require

better understanding of evolving

missions and constraints

• Need clarity and ongoing coordination of

agency roles in research, regulatory,

operations, and planning

State

PSCsMonitoring and Forecasting: USGS,

NOAA, NWS

Delaware River

Commission

Water

Utilities

Federal & State Resource & Environmental Protection

State

Environmental

Protection Offices

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Hydropower Flexibility challenges for

planners, marketers, schedulers, and asset

managers:

• Resolving value streams for different modes of

operation

• Monitoring and data requirements

• Anticipating operational costs, impacts,

replacements, and emergent issues?

Source: Patrick March, HPPi

Changing role for hydropower assets

DOE-sponsored Power

System Studies of

Hydropower Value

DOE-sponsored Flexible

Dispatch Impacts Detection

Research

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New Pathways for Hydropower

Getting Hydropower Built—What Does It Take? A collaborative inquiry process between HRF, ORNL and small hydropower developers

• New and Improved Design Tools—Guidelines and Standards– guidebook for draft tube configuration

– design standards and models for siphon hydroelectric plants to support rapid development

– design standards and best practices for the application of new penstock materials

– “fit for purpose” project designs

– improved Access to Design-related Information—Online Toolboxes and Databases

– online hydropower construction materials toolbox

– online repository of information for gates and operators

– online inventory of fish screens, bypass systems, lifts, and ladders

– procurement toolbox for hydropower equipment, components, and systems

• Advanced and Improved Technology, Materials, and Manufacturing– alternative and composite materials in hydropower plant components

– strategies for smaller and reduced reinforced-concrete structures

– new turbine technology to reduce or eliminate civil construction

– three-dimensional printing of turbines and equipment

– specifications, criteria, and validation methods for fish-friendly turbines

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http://www.hydrofoundation.org/new-pathways-report.html

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New Pathways for Hydropower

Getting Hydropower Built—What Does It Take? A collaborative inquiry process between HRF, ORNL and small hydropower developers

• Standardized Modular Designs – Develop standard designs for conduit hydropower

– Develop standardized, factory-assembled small-hydropower equipment packages with ancillary equipment mounted on skids to speed construction

– Simplify project operations and maintenance by using modular components

– Develop a library of three-dimensional equipment drawings and configurations

• New and Improved Electrical Standards and Practices– Develop standard electrical and control configurations for new hydropower plants

– Develop standard substation configurations

– Develop small-hydropower standards for the updated National Electrical Code

– Develop and promote standard interconnection methods and standards for small-hydropower and micro-hydropower installations

– Explore expanded use of net metering in small-hydropower and micro-hydropower installations

• Tools for Commissioning, Operation, and Maintenance– Develop best-practices guidance for small-hydropower project commissioning and

operation and maintenance plans

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http://www.hydrofoundation.org/new-pathways-report.html

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On the Horizon

Challenges ORNL will address in the near future

• Data Referencing, Archiving, Mining, and Synthesis– National and regional analytics for hydropower sector response to extreme

events and policy alternatives

– Fleet-wide trends and strategies in maintenance and reliability

– Emergent trends in operations and water conditions

• Sustainability Indicators for Existing and New Hydropower– Specific for U.S. hydropower and NEPA context

– Science-based, peer-reviewed, data-driven

– Selecting development strategies, policies, and new sites

– Analysis of water management and regulatory alternatives

• Standardization and Modularity for Cost Reduction and Greater Acceptance

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What is Standard Modular Hydropower?

Optimized for minimal* and bounded environmental

impact and greater public acceptance

• Reduced economic and environmental risks

• Assured passage and stream connectivity

• Minimal* riparian and instream footprints

• Minimal* disruption of river-scape

• Consistent local hydraulics for stream users

Standardized Assessment for Reduced Development Costs

• Consistent stream eco-hydraulic classification and context

• Standard site characterization templates

• Tiered from basin-scale environmental characterizations

• Technology agnostic and long-lived

• Identified and bounded ecological risks

• Predictable and measureable metrics for impacts

*minimal = negligible

Standardized Technology Design, Manufacturing, Installation, and O&M

• Integrated development with advanced materials and manufacturing,

modeling, embedded sensors & controls, installation processes

• Lifetime-optimized mix of durability, reliability, initial cost, and O&M cost

• Defined and tested physical, environmental, and ecological footprints

• Modularity for scaling to site-specific capacity and ease of replacement

• Embedded and sophisticated condition monitoring telemetry for remote ops

• Additional value as water network Smart platform with sensor suite

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Standard Modular Hydropower Concepts

Standard Modular Siting Protocols

• Validated Passage Hydraulics

• Kayaks, Canoes, Rafts, …

• Fish

• Sediment and Debris

• Bypass Flow—Economical QBMIN as

a function of stream parameters

• Validated Foundation, Anchorage,

and Scour Protection Designs

QT

QB

Passage

Modules

Generation

Modules

DOE is investing $1.8M at ORNL in FY2016

to initiate multi-year research and

development of Standard Modular

Hydropower Technology and Sustainability

• Site design protocols

• Technology

• Sustainability indicators

UT researchers will be engaged in

hydraulics, sustainability, and

turbomachinery R&D.

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Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM)

An Example of ORNL Capability

• The Shelby was printed at the DOE-

Manufacturing Demonstration Facility at ORNL

using a 20% carbon fiber reinforced ABS

material and has a Class A Surface finish.

• The design allows integrated components to be

tested and enhanced in real time, improving the

use of sustainable, digital manufacturing

solutions

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• Gigawatts of undeveloped hydropower potential exist in the U.S.

– Significant incremental increases at existing assets ( ~7%)

– 12.1 GW at non-powered dams

– 65 GW of undeveloped potential

• Resource assessments are the first step towards feasibility– Additional effort on new cost models is underway

– Does not replace site-specific measurement and due diligence

– Non-energy (ancillary) value of hydropower assets should not be ignored

• New hydropower development is realistic– Not all sites are “bad” and not all sites are “good.”

– Many impacts/feasibility metrics scoped with advanced geospatial processing & data

– Multiple scenarios and metrics will inform sustainable development and policy

– New development will require cost reduction, technology advancement, risk-taking, and collaboration for sustainable design

Key Points for U.S. Undeveloped Resource

NHAAP Public Portal

http://nhaap.ornl.gov/