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11/21/2014
1
US Plug‐in Vehicle Market: Buying, Charging, Driving
Gil Tal
Michael Nicholas
US Plug‐in Vehicle Market Update and Projections
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BEV sales PHEV Sales BEV Fleet PHEV Fleet Plug‐in Fleet
Sales Projections…
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Sales ≠ Market ≠Demand
Perfect market: A
Market in which buyers and sellers have complete information about a particular product and it is easy to compare prices of products because they are the same as each other etc.
4
Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are a wide range of technologies
– “Minimum” Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)• Varying electric range – battery 5‐10 kWh
• Low EV performance, High MPG
• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour
– Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV)• Increased electric range – medium battery 10‐16 kWh energy
• High EV and ICE performance, medium MPG
• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour
• DC fast capability (Mitsubishi Outlander)
– Battery Electric Vehicle X (BEVx)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy
• High EV, low ICE performance, low MPG
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability
– Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy
• Exclusively electric operation
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability
– “Long Range” Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery 85 kWh energy
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 18 kW and DC fast capability
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PEV Typology by Sales Q1‐Q3 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Prius Plugin AccordPHEV
C‐MAXEnergi
FusionPHEV
PorchePanamera
S‐E
Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500‐E Rav4 EV Model S
Car Sales
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
Short Range PHEVs
Extended Range Electric Vehicle
Battery Electric Vehicle
Long Range BEV
29,000 16,000 29,000 12,000
PEV Typology by Sales Q1‐Q3 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Prius Plugin AccordPHEV
C‐MAXEnergi
FusionPHEV
PorchePanamera
S‐E
Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500‐E Rav4 EV Model S
Car Sales
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
Short Range PHEV Extended
Range Electric Vehicle
Battery Electric Vehicle
Long Range BEV
29,000 16,000 29,000 12,000
EV RangeLow High
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PEVs Typology by Sales Q1‐Q3 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Prius Plugin AccordPHEV
C‐MAXEnergi
FusionPHEV
PorchePanamera
S‐E
Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500‐E Rav4 EV Model S
Car Sales
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
Short Range PHEV Extended
Range Electric Vehicle
Battery Electric Vehicle
Long Range BEV
29,000 16,000 29,000 12,000
EV PowerLow High
California PEVs 2014
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California BEV to PEV Ratio
2014
California Tesla to BEV Ratio
2014
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HOV Access as a Primary Purchasing Motivation
24%
17%
0%2%
5%
39%
25%
8%10% 9%
54%
64%
26%24%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Bay Area Los Angeles San Diego Sacramento Rural Areas
Nissan Leaf Chevy Volt Toyota Plug‐In Prius
Household Distance From HOV Lane by Vehicle Type
16%
17%21%
16%30%
7%10%
17%
17%
49%
3%
6%
11%
12%
68%
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Miles from
HOV lane
Importance for Buying a PEV
Leaf
Volt
Prius
Not at all Important
SlightlyImportant
ModeratelyImportant
VeryImportant
ExtremelyImportant
bubble size = share of
respondents
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New 12 State Survey (N=3,500 and Counting )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
CO FL MI NJ MA VA TX GA NY CT TN DC
Total responden
ts
CHEVROLET VOLT NISSAN LEAF FORD C‐MAX ENERGI
FORD FUSION ENERGI TESLA MODEL S TOYOTA PRIUS PLUG‐IN
Socio Demographics Similar to CA but Income is Lower
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Reported Yearly Income
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Some High School High SchoolGraduate or GED
Some College College Graduate Some GraduateSchool
Masters,Doctorate, orProfessionalDegree
Education
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Tesla Drivers Have High Income Everywhere
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
CHEVROLETVOLT
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
FORD FUSIONENERGI
NISSAN LEAF TOYOTA PRIUSPLUG‐IN
TESLA MODEL S State Mean
MI CO TN FL GA VA NY TX CT MA NJ
PEV Households Have More Vehicles than Drivers
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
TOYOTAPRIUS PLUG‐
IN
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
FORDFUSIONENERGI
CHEVROLETVOLT
NISSAN LEAF TESLAMODEL S
Veh per HH VEH per driver
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
CO CT TN VA GA MI TX NY NJ FL MA DC
Vehicle per Driver by State
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Driving Patterns: New vs Older, Purchased vs Leased
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
CHEVROLETVOLT
FORD C‐MAX
ENERGI
FORDFUSIONENERGI
NISSANLEAF
TESLAMODEL S
TOYOTAPRIUSPLUG‐IN
2011 2012 2013 2014 Avarege
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
CHEVROLETVOLT
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
FORD FUSIONENERGI
NISSAN LEAF TESLA MODEL S TOYOTA PRIUSPLUG‐IN
Purchased Leased Avarege
Commute Trips
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
DC TX CO FL GA VA MA MI NY TN NJ CT Mean
PEV Commute Roundtrip Miles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
NISSAN LEAF TOYOTAPRIUS PLUG‐
IN
CHEVROLETVOLT
TESLAMODEL S
FORDFUSIONENERGI
Mean
PEV Commute Roundtrip Miles
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
VA GA TN MA CT TX CO NY MI NJ FL DC
Share Commute By PEV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
FORD C‐MAX
ENERGI
TOYOTAPRIUSPLUG‐IN
TESLAMODEL S
CHEVROLETVOLT
FORDFUSIONENERGI
NISSANLEAF
Share PEV Commute
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One Slide on Charging
59.22 59.94 59.856.46
49.52
68.31
38.87 36.54 36.7641.69
47.91
28.31
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CHEVROLET VOLT FORD C‐MAXENERGI
FORD FUSIONENERGI
NISSAN LEAF TESLA MODEL S TOYOTA PRIUSPLUG‐IN
In the last 30 days, I've plugged in my car both at home AND away from home
In the last 30 days, I've only plugged in my car ONLY at home
In the last 30 days, I've only plugged in my car away from home
I did not plug in my car in the last 30 days
The Importance of Incentives
Federal Tax
Credit
Applicable
Federal Tax
Credit
Importance
State Rebate
Applicable
State
Rebate
Importance
subsidy for
home EVSE
Applicable
subsidy for
home EVSE
importance
Workplace
charging
applicable
Workplace
charging
importance
HOV access
Aplicable
HOV access
Importance
CHEVROLET VOLT 98.5% 2.08 34.1% 1.43 47.8% 0.65 54% 0.53 42% ‐0.86
FORD C‐MAX ENERGI 92.7% 1.60 28.2% 0.80 34.3% 0.96 43% 0.78 37% ‐0.76
FORD FUSION ENERGI 91.2% 1.81 27.2% 0.19 37.5% 0.85 47% 1.01 37% 0.15
NISSAN LEAF 98.7% 2.25 48.3% 1.77 49.9% 0.75 56% 0.52 48% ‐1.03
TESLA MODEL S 97.7% 1.07 40.1% 0.86 31.6% ‐0.76 47% ‐0.99 49% ‐0.69
TOYOTA PRIUS PLUG‐IN 88.6% 1.56 26.5% 0.41 30.0% 0.00 41% 0.42 43% ‐0.51
MEAN 96.1% 1.69 35.4% 1.12 41.2% 0.37 50% 0.29 44% ‐0.77
‐3 not important to 3 very important
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Federal Tax Credit
Federal Tax Credit TESLA MODEL S
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Federal Tax Credit Nissan LEAF
Federal Tax Credit Chevrolet Volt
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Federal Tax Credit Toyota Plug‐in Prius
Federal Tax Credit Ford C‐Max Energi
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What Can we Learn From the 2014 PEV “Market”? • Growing number of product types grows the market
• But the supply is still very limited
• Incentives have a strong regional impact on sales and on technology preference
• For maximum impact Incentives not all buyers need all the incentives.
Market Segmentation: Drivetrains or Gender?
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Share used by Female
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
NISSAN LEAF TOYOTA PRIUSPLUG‐IN
CHEVROLETVOLT
TESLA MODELS
FORD FUSIONENERGI
PEV Commute Roundtrip Miles
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
FORD C‐MAX
ENERGI
TOYOTAPRIUSPLUG‐IN
TESLAMODEL S
CHEVROLETVOLT
FORDFUSIONENERGI
NISSANLEAF
Share PEV Commute
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
NISSAN LEAF CHEVROLETVOLT
TOYOTAPRIUS PLUG‐
IN
FORD FUSIONENERGI
TESLAMODEL S
Household Income
‐1.4‐1.2‐1
‐0.8‐0.6‐0.4‐0.2
00.2
NISSAN LEAF CHEVROLETVOLT
FORD C‐MAXENERGI
TESLA MODELS
TOYOTAPRIUS PLUG‐
IN
FORD FUSIONENERGI
HOV Importance
