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U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY SEPTEMBER 2020

U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

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Page 1: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THEECONOMYSEPTEMBER 2020

Page 2: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

The most severe recession in economic history, but also, the shortest.

Page 3: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Moody’s Analytics

MOST SEVERE COLLAPSE IN GDP ON RECORD

-5.4 -5.9-10.0

-5.0 -4.2 -4.8-8.0-6.1

-3.6 -1.6

-8.4

-32.9-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1948

Q2

1954

Q2

1960

Q2

1966

Q2

1972

Q2

1978

Q2

1984

Q2

1990

Q2

1996

Q2

2002

Q2

2008

Q2

2014

Q2

2020

Q2

U.S. Real GDP, Annualized Growth (%)

U.S. Real GDP, Annualized Growth(%)

Page 4: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

RECORD JOB LOSSES BUT LABOR MARKET RECOVERY HAS BEGUN

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Payroll Employment (Millions)

22.2 million job losses from Feb to April

As of July, 9.3 million jobs (42%) returned

0.1

0.0

0.6

0.1

0.6

1.5

1.2

0.6

0.7

4.0

-0.3

-0.3

-1.1

-0.6

-1.4

-2.4

-2.8

-2.3

-2.9

-8.3

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Financial activities

Information

Construction

Transportation & warehousing

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Education & healthcare

Professional & business services

Office-using employment

Leisure & hospitality

Change in jobs Feb to April, millions Change in jobs April to July, millions

STRIKING A DEVASTATING BLOW TO THE LABOR MARKETU.S. Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 5: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: CoStar Group; Reis; Cushman & Wakefield Research

VACANCY ON THE RISE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR

HOWEVER, MARKETS REMAIN RELATIVELY TIGHT

13.0%

4.8%

6.4% 6.4%

13.7%

5.3%

6.8% 6.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Office Industrial Shopping Centers Multifamily

2019 Q4 2020 Q2

17.3%

13.7%

10.6%

5.3%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2009

Q2

2010

Q2

2011

Q2

2012

Q2

2013

Q2

2014

Q2

2015

Q2

2016

Q2

2017

Q2

2018

Q2

2019

Q2

2020

Q2

Office Industrial

JOB LOSSES STARTING TO IMPACT LEASING FUNDAMENTALSU.S. Vacancy Rates, Various Property Types

Page 6: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

CAPITAL MARKETS LARGELY IN WAIT & SEE MODE

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research

SALES VOLUME IN Q2 AT LOWEST POINT SINCE 2011

Property Type

Sales Volume Change YOY

(2020 Q2)Industrial -45%

Office -72%

Apartment -72%

Retail -76%

Hotel -91%

All -69%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2000

Q2

2001

Q2

2002

Q2

2003

Q2

2004

Q2

2005

Q2

2006

Q2

2007

Q2

2008

Q2

2009

Q2

2010

Q2

2011

Q2

2012

Q2

2013

Q2

2014

Q2

2015

Q2

2016

Q2

2017

Q2

2018

Q2

2019

Q2

2020

Q2

U.S

. Tra

nsac

tions

($B)

Single Asset Portfolio Entity Level

U.S. Sales Volume Transactions, by Entity Type ($B)

Page 7: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

PRICING BEGINNING TO SOFTEN

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research

WHILE PROPERTY PRICE INCREASES SLOW DOWN, INDUSTRIAL & MULTIFAMILY MORE RESILIENT

Property Type

Sales Price Change YOY

(2020 Q2)Industrial 7.6%

Apartment 7.1%

Office 2.3%

Retail -0.7%

Hotel -5.4%

All 3.6%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Feb-

15

Jun-

15

Oct

-15

Feb-

16

Jun-

16

Oct

-16

Feb-

17

Jun-

17

Oct

-17

Feb-

18

Jun-

18

Oct

-18

Feb-

19

Jun-

19

Oct

-19

Feb-

20

Jun-

20

Office Industrial Retail Apartment

Property Price Change (Year-over-Year), 12-Month Rolling (%)

Page 8: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

DELINQUENCIES CONCENTRATED IN RETAIL & LODGING, SO FAR

Source: Trepp

1.72.7 2.0

4.4

1.81.22.4

3.3

16.1

23.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Industrial Office Multifamily Retail Lodging

Del

inqu

ency

Rat

e (%

30

Day

s +)

July 2019 July 2020

Delinquency Rate by Property Type (% 30 Days +)

Page 9: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

SIGNS OF RECOVERY…

RETAIL SALES REBOUNDINGSTOCK MARKET SURGE MANUFACTURING GROWING AGAIN

LOW INTEREST RATES = REFINANCING BOOM

LAYOFFS DOWN: LABOR MARKETS IMPROVING

SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE UP

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000Ju

l-19

Aug-

19Se

p-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20Fe

b-20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0M

ay-2

0Ju

n-20

Jul-2

0Au

g-20

Dow Jones Industrial Average

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

525,000

550,000

Jul-1

9Au

g-19

Sep-

19O

ct-1

9N

ov-1

9D

ec-1

9Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20Ju

l-20

Millions of USD ($)

40

45

50

55

Jul-1

9Au

g-19

Sep-

19O

ct-1

9N

ov-1

9D

ec-1

9Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20Ju

l-20

ISM Index

95

100

105

110

115

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19Se

p-19

Oct

-19

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20Fe

b-20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

NFIB Index

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7/5/

198/

5/19

9/5/

1910

/5/1

911

/5/1

912

/5/1

91/

5/20

2/5/

203/

5/20

4/5/

205/

5/20

6/5/

207/

5/20

8/5/

20

Mortgage Refinancing Applications

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

7/6/

198/

6/19

9/6/

1910

/6/1

911

/6/1

912

/6/1

91/

6/20

2/6/

203/

6/20

4/6/

205/

6/20

6/6/

207/

6/20

8/6/

20

Initial Unemployment ClaimsSource: Various

Page 10: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

STILL MANY SCENARIOS & UNKNOWNS

Source: Consensus forecast sourced to FiveThirtyEight/IMG where 22% of economists expect real GDP to return to pre-crisis levels in H2 2021 vs 44% expect H1 or H2 of 2022.

Upside = Moody’s Analytics S0 Update Scenario, Downside = Moody’s S3 Downside Scenario; Forecast as of 7-22-2020

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,00020

19 Q

4

2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Q4

2021

Q1

2021

Q2

2021

Q3

2021

Q4

2022

Q1

2022

Q2

2022

Q3

2022

Q4

2023

Q1

2023

Q2

U.S

. GD

P ($

B)

Consensus Forecast: Return to 2019 GDP in

mid-2022

Moody’s Baseline

Oxford’s Baseline DownsideUpside

U.S. Real GDP Forecast Scenarios ($B)

Page 11: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody’s Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research

JOB GAINS/LOSSES, MILLIONS (U.S.) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (U.S.)

-9.6

0.1

4.7

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

3.5%

13.0%

9.5%

8.1%

5.7%

4.5% 4.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2019

Q4

2020

Q4

2021

Q4

2022

Q4

2023

Q4

2024

Q4

LABOR MARKETS’ PATH TO RECOVERY: BASELINE SCENARIOJob Growth & Unemployment Rate Forecasts

Page 12: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

COVID-19 is accelerating trends that were already in the making.

Page 13: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: Ecommerce figures from Digital Commerce 360 analyzing the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Retail E-Commerce Sales Report and Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Report.

Note: Total retail sales number excludes the sale of items not normally purchased online; specifically, motor vehicle & parts dealers (NAICS 441), gasoline stations (NAICS 447), and food services & drinking places (NAICS 722).

Industrial figures from Cushman & Wakefield Research

DRAMATIC INCREASE IN ONLINE SHOPPING GENERATES DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL-LOGISTICS

5.6%7.2%

8.3%

10.7%

13.2%

16.0%

21.8%23.8%

24.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Online sales as % of Total Retail Sales*

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019

H1

2020

H1

Traditional Net Absorption eCommerce Net Absorption

ECOMMERCE SURGE CONTINUES THE INDUSTRIAL BOOMOnline Sales as % of Total Retail Sales* & Industrial Absorption

Page 14: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

INDUSTRIAL ABSORPTION STRONG IN MANY MARKETSSelect U.S. Markets, 2020 H1

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

0

4

8

12

16

Dal

las/

Ft.

Wor

th

PA I-

81/I-

78C

orrid

or

Atla

nta

Hou

ston

Inla

ndEm

pire

CA

Chi

cago

Phoe

nix

Indi

anap

olis

Balti

mor

e

Sava

nnah

Mem

phis

Phila

delp

hia

Kans

as C

ity

Las

Vega

s

Nas

hville

NJ

- Cen

tral

Den

ver

MSF

Page 15: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

INDUSTRIAL VACANCY REMAINS LOWU.S. Industrial Vacancy (%)

Q2 20205.3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Page 16: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

U.S. Sales Volume ($B)

Source: Real Capital Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield Research

453.7

60.4

482.4

98.2

All Other Property Types Industrial-logistics

135.0

44.5

2016 2018 2020 H1

ACCELERATES CAPITAL FLOWING INTO INDUSTRIAL-LOGISTICS

Page 17: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: Structure Research; Cushman & Wakefield Research

REGIONAL CLOUD SERVICES SPEND ($B) DATA CENTER Q2 HIGHLIGHTS

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Americas EMEA Asia

• Distributed workforce: Cloud services absorbed near-record capacity (200 MW) in Q2 as corporations rapidly shifted IT infrastructure to keep up with a suddenly distributed workforce.

• Record throughput: The largest internet exchanges across the world saw new record throughput, noting 50% increases in teleconferencing and 25% increases in online gaming and social media usage.

• Further expansion: Data center REITs remain focused on expansion to serve both large cloud services companies and corporations looking for further disaster recovery options and/or scalability.

COVID-19 ACCELERATES DATA USAGE & DATA CENTER DEMAND

Page 18: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Cushman & Wakefield Research

-28%

-24%

-22%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-6%

-6%

8%

20%

21%

-1%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Restaurants

Clothing

Gasoline

Electronics

Grocery

Health

Furniture

General Merch

Building Materials

Nonstore

Sporting Goods

Total

June 2020, Change Since Pre-Virus Peak by Retail Sector

STRONGER HEADWINDS FOR CERTAIN RETAIL CONCEPTS

CHANGE IN SALES BY RETAIL SECTOR(PRE-VIRUS PEAK TO JUNE 2020)

MAPS TO ECOMMERCE PENETRATION

Source: ShawSpring Partners; Bank of America

eCommerce Penetration

Before After (Forecast)

Apparel & Accessories 29% 40%

Auto & Parts 5% 10%

Books, Music & Video 55% 68%

Consumer Electronics 42% 55%

Food & Beverage 3% 15%

Furniture & Furnishings 24% 42%

Health & Beauty 11% 25%

Office Supplies 27% 60%

Other 24% 40%

Toys & Hobby 37% 50%

Page 19: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

RETAIL DEMAND NEGATIVE IN 2020 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2009U.S. Retail Absorption by Quarter

Source: Costar Group; Cushman & Wakefield Research

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008

Q2

2009

Q2

2010

Q2

2011

Q2

2012

Q2

2013

Q2

2014

Q2

2015

Q2

2016

Q2

2017

Q2

2018

Q2

2019

Q2

2020

Q2

MSF

Page 20: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

MALLS WILL BE HIT HARD…

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

A++ A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D

U.S. Mall Distribution by Class

Class A: 310 U.S. MallsNearly all will need to redevelop

dead anchor space.

Class C & D: 334 U.S. MallsMost of these will become

redevelopment opportunities.

Class B: 426 U.S. MallsWill need to redevelop dead anchor space. Most will need

some level of redevelopment. Weakest properties will be on the same trajectory as Class C & D were before the crisis.

U.S. Mall Distribution by Class

Page 21: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: William H Frey analysis of Census Bureau Population estimates July 2010-2019 (released May 21, 2020); Brookings Institute

POPULATION GROWTH STRONGER SINCE ‘16 CBD RENT PREMIUM DOWN FROM PEAK

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Primary City Growth Suburb Growth

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ACCELERATES REBIRTH OF THE SUBURBS THAT WAS ALREADY UNDERWAYTurn Towards Suburbs Began Three Years Before Pandemic & Recession

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Page 22: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Office faces both cyclical & structural headwinds, but it will fully recover.

Page 23: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

CYCLICAL – JOB LOSSES STRUCTURAL – WORKING REMOTELY

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

2000

Q2

2001

Q3

2002

Q4

2004

Q1

2005

Q2

2006

Q3

2007

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2011

Q3

2012

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2016

Q3

2017

Q4

2019

Q1

2020

Q2

Office-using employment, millions

Great Financial Crisis: 2.4 million office jobs lost

COVID Recession: 2.6 million office jobs lost

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 20

% of US Workers Who Have Worked Remotely

JOB LOSSES (CYCLICAL) & EMPLOYEE LOCATION CHOICE (STRUCTURAL) WILL IMPACT WORKPLACE ECOSYSTEMS

Source: Gallup Panel 2020

Page 24: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

OFFICE ABSORPTION TURNS NEGATIVEU.S. Office Net Absorption by Quarter

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

-23-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

MSF

Q2 2020 Net AbsorptionCBD: -8.1 MSF

Suburbs: -15.0 MSF

Page 25: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

OFFICE VACANCY TRENDS HIGHER; ENDED Q2 AT HIGHEST POINT SINCE 2015U.S. Office Vacancy (%)

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

17.6%17.3%

12.8%

13.7%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Page 26: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

U.S. VACANCY SCENARIOS

18.2%

15.4%Pre-COVID

13.0%

21.8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

2019

Q1

2019

Q2

2019

Q3

2019

Q4

2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Q4

2021

Q1

2021

Q2

2021

Q3

2021

Q4

2022

Q1

2022

Q2

2022

Q3

2022

Q4

Baseline Upside Downside

• GDP recovery follows the baseline scenario- returns to pre-crises levels in 2022.

• U.S. office employment declines by 1.2 million office-using jobs in 2020.

• Congress passes another fiscal relief bill.

• Coronavirus situation begins to resolve by mid-2021.

• Historical relationship between job losses and net absorption holds true in this cycle.

• Percent of people working permanently from home increases from 5% to 10%.

• Share of agile workers increases from 40% pre-COVID-19 to 56%; assume 90% of agile workers have workstations.

• Halt in decade long trend of densification (sf per worker remains fixed at 2019 levels).

Key

Eco

nom

ic

Assu

mpt

ions

Key

Offi

ceAs

sum

ptio

ns

Baseline Assumptions:

U.S. OFFICE VACANCY SCENARIOS

Source: Upside = Moody’s S0 scenarios, Baseline = Moody’s baseline scenario where GDP doesn’t fully recovery until 2022Q2, Downside = Moody’s S3 Scenario

Forecast as of 7-22-2020

Page 27: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: Upside = Moody’s S0 scenarios, Baseline = Moody’s baseline scenario where GDP doesn’t fully recovery until 2022Q2, Downside = Moody’s S3 Scenario

Forecast as of 7-22-2020

U.S. OFFICE PROPERTY PRICE INDEX

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2019

Q4

2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Q4

2021

Q1

2021

Q2

2021

Q3

2021

Q4

2022

Q1

2022

Q2

2022

Q3

2022

Q4

2023

Q1

2023

Q2

2023

Q3

2023

Q4

2024

Q1

2024

Q2

Baseline Upside Downside

Upside:Full Recovery

2021 Q4

Baseline:Full Recovery

2022 Q4

Downside:Full Recovery 2023 Q4

Factors That Point to Full Recovery:

• Economic growth (e.g. GDP, population growth over the long-term).

• Share of office employment increasing as a share of nonfarm employment.

• Surveys indicate office employees want options and want to be in an office on a regular basis. The future is total workplace ecosystems that offer more employee choice.

• 90% want to return to the office.

• 78% want remote working policies expanded and a shift to balancing office, home and third places.

• Office retains value for its role in:

• Agglomeration / knowledge spillover

• Worker productivity

• Cultural / branding factors

• Mentoring, training and onboarding

PROPERTY PRICE SCENARIOS

Page 28: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

OFFICE ALSO HAS STRONG STRUCTURAL TAILWIND AT ITS BACKOffice-using Industries Expected to Account for Disproportionate Share of Future U.S. Job Gains

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody's Analytics Forecasted

197015.2%

200021.2%

202021.9%

202522.9%

203524.4%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Office-using Employment as % of Total Nonfarm Payroll

Page 29: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

The COVID-19 recession will hit the multifamily sector as well, but long-term fundamentals remain favorable.

Page 30: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

NET ABSORPTION SLOWS & APARTMENT VACANCY TRENDS HIGHERU.S. Apartment Absorption by Quarter (Units) & Vacancy

Source: CoStar Group

5.6%

5.8%

6.0%

6.2%

6.4%

6.6%

6.8%

7.0%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,00020

15

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Net Absorption Vacancy Rate

Page 31: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Source: U. S. Census Bureau; Moody's Analytics Forecasted

NEARLY 45.5 MILLION PRIME RENTERS BETWEEN THE AGES OF 20 AND 29 IN THE U.S.

DEMOGRAPHICS STILL FAVORABLE FOR APARTMENT DEMAND

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Milli

ons

of P

erso

ns (U

.S.)

Age

5-Year Age Cohort

#(Millions)

20-24 21.925-29 23.630-34 22.1

35-39 21.6

40-44 19.7

U.S. Population by Age (Millions)

Page 32: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

AFTER SLOWDOWN, DEMAND EXPECTED TO TURN ROBUST BY 2022

Source: CoStar Group

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,00020

16

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net Absorption Effective Rent Growth (rhs)

U.S. Apartment Absorption by Year (Units) & Effective Rent Growth (Year-Over-Year)

Page 33: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

Closing Thoughts to Keep in Mind…

Uncertainty limiting current activity…

• Current recession is unique in that it is being driven by a health pandemic. Mobility, confidence and activity are dependent upon virus spread being brought under control.

• Office workforces are largely still distributed, making it difficult for occupiers to gauge future office needs across their portfolios.

…But, reasons for cautious optimism.

• Job creation started quickly, after a devastating two-month drop in employment.• The recession is likely already over. The recovery, though fragile and uneven, has begun.• Rent collections have remained strong for office, industrial and multifamily (each of which are averaging

90%+).

Some pre-recession trends are being accelerated.

• eCommerce and online retail sales substituting for the lower levels of in-person shopping, eating, etc.• Need for more data centers and cloud services capacity.• Suburban submarkets increasingly attractive for some residents, workers and employers.• Secular headwinds for retail were accelerated by this crisis.

What else is to come?

• Occupiers examining portfolio strategies now, and some likely to make shifts in workplace ecosystems in the future. The office will remain a critical driver of culture, learning and personal connections.

• Vast majority of office workers now want their employer to expand remote working policies and shift to balancing office, home and third places.

• During the current pandemic-forced work-from-home experience, only 55% of workers “have a sense of well-being” and half struggle to connect with their company’s culture.

• Opportunities exist as office rents have declined in one-fifth of U.S. markets, national vacancy is up 49 basis points quarter-over-quarter and sublease space has increased by 21% since the beginning of the year.

• Industrial demand remains strong, and many U.S. markets continue to have historically low vacancy rates.• Downside risk does still exist with disruptions to import / export volumes and potential bankruptcies of

warehouse retailers.

Page 34: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

KEY CONTACTS:

Garrick BrownRetail Insights, NewCommerce [email protected]

Jason TolliverGlobal Head of NewCommerce [email protected]

David BitnerGlobal Head of Capital Markets [email protected]

Kristina Garcia Multifamily Insights, Capital Markets [email protected]

Kevin ThorpeChief Economist, Global Head of [email protected]

Rebecca Rockey Economist, Global Head of Economic Analysis & Forecasting [email protected]

David C. SmithGlobal Head of Occupier [email protected]

Ken McCarthyEconomist, Global [email protected]

Carolyn SalzerIndustrial Insights, NewCommerce [email protected]

Page 35: U.S. PROPERTY MARKETS & THE ECONOMY · Information. Construction. Transportation & warehousing. Manufacturing. Retail trade. Education & healthcare. Professional & business services

SEPTEMBER 2020

DISCLAIMER: Cushman & Wakefield and our staff are not authorized or qualified to guide or influence you in the preparation of your own business continuity or preparations plans from a health and public policy perspective. While we are making efforts to ensure we are providing an up-to-date list of publicly available resources, all details on COVID-19, as well as health, economic and public policy implications, should be addressed with the advice of an independent specialist.

About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter.

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