US Senior Citizen Diabetes Prevention ProposalBIA-650 Process Optimization and AnalyticsDec 2014

Alek LiskovBing Lang

Dmitry RassakhatskyNing Li

Yilin Wei

Agenda1. Introduction to Diabetes2. Target Population3. Prevention Programs4. Optimization Models5. Sensitivity Analysis6. Conclusion

1. Introduction to diabetes• Type II diabetes takes the largest part

Source: Global diabetes plan 2011-2021, International diabetes federation

Type I: 3% - 5%Gestational diabetes: 2% - 10%

Type II: 90% - 95%

1. Introduction to diabetes4 efficient methods to manage type II diabetes

2. Target population● Geographic Segmentation● Demographic Segmentation● Psychographic Segmentation

2. Target populationPatients highly concentrate at Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Arizona.

2. Target populationPoverty-stricken areas are similar to previous picture.

2. Target populationThe economically challenged areas overlap with the areas of high percent of diabetes.

US diabetes map US poverty mapSource: CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance

2. Target populationDiabetes concentrates on people aged 45+

2. Target populationDiabetes distributes among various races

2. Target population

Utilize PRIZM to investigate psychographic segmentation based on geographic and demographic segmentation

Age:55+65+

Income:Lower midMidscale

DownscaleLow income

Urbanicity:SuburbanTown/rural

TownRural

2. Target population

Use TV program and shopping place to advertise program

Type Midscale Mature w/o Kids

Lower Mid Mature w/o Kids

Midscale Mature w/o Kids

Shop Lord & Taylor JCPenney Lands' End(online)Watch Frontline Wheel of Fortune Hallmark Channel

Type Midscale Older Mostly w/o Kids

Downscale Mature w/o Kids

Downscale Mature w/o Kids

Shop QVC(online) Kmart L.L.Bean(online)

Watch New Yankee Workshop

Crimetime Saturday The 700 Club

Type Downscale Mature w/o Kids

Downscale Older w/o Kids

Downscale Mature Mostly w/o Kids

Shop In-Home Vitamins Purchase JCPenney(online) Tractor Supply

CompanyWatch Price is Right Judge Joe Brown Bold & Beautiful

2. Target population

People aged 60+ hope to save more money

Source: The 2014 edition of the United States of Aging Survey

2. Target population

People aged 60+ hope to maintain closer relationships.

Source: The 2014 edition of the United States of Aging Survey

27%

3. Prevention programs

● My Health Task Program (MHT)● Media Campaign

3.1 Prevention programs

Two steps model to educate participants

Based on Dr. Peter Sandman’s environmental communications model

3.1 Target Population DataSource Data Description Time Period

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Distribution of diabetes patients and occurrences, including data about socio-economic factors and population characteristics.

2004-2014

Last 10 Years of data

CDC and National Center for Health Statistics

Data about new and existing diabetes cases broken down by age group and condition stages

2004-2014

Last 10 Years of data

3.1 Мedia campaign - DataSource Data Description Time

PeriodGoogle Analytics* Google AdWords audience reach

and measurement data2014

Traffic Audit Bureau The improved metric system will measure audiences 'likely to see' an outdoor ad, with rich demographic and ethnographic data.

2013

Nielsen TV and Radio Audience Measurement and statistics

2014

Facebook* Facebook audience reach and measurement data

2014

3.2 My Health Task Program

Gamification: ● Allow user to win appealing awards by completing

tasks

By participating the program,users will be ● repeatedly exposed to health related instructions and

tips● encouraged to adopt healthy eating habit and exercise● encouraged to share progress on social media to

influence their network

3.2 My Health Task Program

Complete one

health quiz

everyday

Workout 3 hours/week

Test and record blood sugar/

pressure

Read a healthy

recipe/tip everyday

Through web/app

Post healthy meal

/workout on social media

Measured by apps such as MapMyRun,

Nike+, JawBone

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5

Every user will be a

social media info center

Complete one

health quiz

everyday

Workout 3 hours/week

Test and record blood sugar/

pressure

Read the healthy

recipe/tip everyday

Post healthy meal/

workout on social media

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5

3.3 Media Campaign

● Web/Mobile● TV● Social● Radio● Street● Print

3.3 Media Efficiency Matrix

CostHigh Low Medium Low Low Medium

Participation High Low Medium Medium Medium Medium

Effectiveness Medium Low Medium Medium Low Medium

4. Optimization Models - Objectives● Maximize effectiveness

○ Maximize participation■ Effectiveness of prevention program■ Optimal ROI for each media channel

○ Maximize awareness■ Optimal allocation of advertising budget

4. Optimization Models - Constraints● Budget

○ stay within the designated budget in terms of program spending

● The minimum acceptable level of participation

● Minimum effectiveness level >=○ difficulty tracking exact viewership and campaign

ROI;○ availability of social media data;○ understanding the accuracy of the campaign;

4. Optimization Models - Optimization techniques● Classification● Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)● Goal programming● Linear programing

4.1 Optimization Model MHT

• To Maximize the participation and effectiveness of My Health Task

• Score each task by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

• Prioritize participation as first goal and effectiveness as second goal by goal programing

• Allocate budget by linear programing

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5

Cost(R&D+ad)

Low Low High high low

Participation(Predicted)

0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1

EffectivenessQuotient

20 30 50 90 10

Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5

4.2 Optimization Model - Мedia campaign● Utilize clustering techniques to identify the

subpopulations based on geographical location and socioeconomic factors

● Determine the optimal combination of media channels using AHP

● Allocate budget by linear programming

4.2 Optimization Model - Мedia campaign

● Variables and estimated weights

Types Number of People Reacher / $1

SEO 2.6

SEM 1.2

Facebook 3.0

TV Ads 2.5

Magazine Ads 0.8

5. Sensitivity Analysis - MHT● Change of budget● Change of participation response rate● Change of minimum required effectiveness

5. Sensitivity Analysis - Media● Allocation of advertising funds

○ Examining the change in allocation based on campaign effectiveness

● Determining the best portfolio for each channel○ TV: deciding between programs and time○ Radio: station and optimal time○ Print: publication selection○ Web/Mobile: best platform and coding○ Street: Location and message○ Social: Best audience

6. Conclusion

The practice:

Functioning program + advertising methods

The measurement:

cognitive quantitative

Restrictions:

○ Accuracy of the data ■ Survey results do not 100% reflect realty■ Privacy Concerns

Thank you