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© 2012 SEIA © 2012 SEIA
U.S. Solar Market Insight 2012 Year-In-Review
Andrew Krulewitz Solar Analyst GTM Research
Justin Baca Director of Research Solar Energy Industries Association
© 2012 SEIA
About SEIA
• Founded in 1974
• U.S. National Trade Association for Solar Energy
• 1,000 member companies from around the world
• Members from across 50 states
• Largest companies in the world as well as small installers
• Our Mission: Build a strong solar industry to power America
• Our Goal: 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual installed solar capacity in the U.S. by 2015
© 2012 SEIA
Solar Market Insight: 2012 Year-In-Review
• Detailed data on markets in top 25 states plus DC available in full report.
• Free executive summary provides national aggregate data on installations, pricing, manufacturing and demand forecasts.
• Full report for sale (50% discount to SEIA members) includes quarterly forecasts as well as detailed market segment and state data.
© 2012 SEIA
Solar Is an Economic Engine
• The value of U.S. solar installations was $11.5 billion in 2012, up from $8.6 billion in 2011
• There are now over 119,000 solar workers in the U.S., a 13% increase over 2011 employment totals*
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Solar Workforce
SEIA Estimate The Solar Foundation
*(The Solar Foundation 2012 National Solar Jobs Census)
$-
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bill
ion
s ($
)
Value of U.S. Solar Installations
SEIA Estimate SEIA/GTM Research
© 2012 SEIA
Solar Continues to Boom- 3,313 MW Installed in 2012
• Record Q4 with 1,300 MW deployed
0
500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
New U.S. Solar Electric Installations
Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
© 2012 SEIA
Record Quarter for Utility and Residential Markets
144 MW
282 MW
874 MW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Residential Commercial Utility
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012
© 2012 SEIA
Solar More Affordable Than Ever
• Average system prices declined 27% over the past year
$-
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ble
nd
ed
Ave
rage
Sys
tem
Pri
ce (
$/W
)
Blended Average System Prices
LBNL "Tracking the Sun IV" SEIA/GTM Research
© 2012 SEIA
State 2012 Performance
• 11 states installed 50 MW or more in 2012
• The Massachusetts market more than quadrupled in new PV capacity from 2011 to 2012
• California’s residential and commercial markets led the nation
• Hawaii’s market grew 169% in 2012 over 2011
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
10. New York
9. Texas
8. Maryland
7. Hawaii
6. Massachusetts
5. North Carolina
4. Nevada
3. New Jersey
2. Arizona
1. California
Residential
Commercial
Utility
1,033 MW
710 MW
415 MW
198 MW
132 MW
© 2012 SEIA
Fun With Rankings
61
64
74
109
129
132
198
415
710
1,033
- 300 600 900 1,200
New York
Texas
Maryland
Hawaii
Massachusetts
North Carolina
Nevada
New Jersey
Arizona
California
Cumulative Solar Electric Capacity
30
34
48
52
76
91
110
137
146
167
- 50 100 150 200
Massachusetts
Vermont
Delaware
Colorado
California
New Mexico
New Jersey
Hawaii
Nevada
Arizona
Installed Solar Electric Watts/Capita
21,729
27,035
32,075
37,269
37,463
43,049
48,641
138,731
138,951
547,085
- 200,000 400,000 600,000
North Carolina
New York
Massachusetts
Hawaii
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Arizona
New Jersey
California
Number of Homes Powered by Installed Solar Capacity
© 2012 SEIA
What to Expect in 2013
• 4,300 MW of PV and 940 MW of CSP expected to come online in 2013
• Residential market to show most significant growth
• Utility market projected to grow 31% in 2013, compared to 134% in 2012
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2012 2013E
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
2012 vs. 2013E PV Installations
© 2012 SEIA
PV Installations By Major Markets
California 31%
Arizona 21%
New Jersey 13%
Next 5 States 19%
All Others 16%
2012
California 48%
Arizona 11%
New Jersey 8%
Next 5 States 16%
All Others 17%
2013E
© 2012 SEIA
Another Record Year of Installations • U.S. PV market expected to grow 29% in 2013, significantly
higher than the global rate
4,269
5,180
6,868
8,943
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
PV Installation Forecast
Residential Commercial Utility
© 2012 SEIA
Significant CSP To Come Online in 2013
• The current CSP pipeline contains 2,700 MW of projects with signed PPAs
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
U.S. CSP Installations and Forecast
Installations Forecast
© 2012 SEIA
SEIA’s 10 GW Goal Within Reach
• SEIA’s goal of 10 GW annually by 2015 is achievable, but additional policies are needed, including:
– Policies to support financing of solar projects
– Removal of barriers to solar deployment
– Development of alternative financing mechanisms
– Interconnection Standards
– Efficient Permitting Processes
U.S. PV Market Growth, 2000-2012
With growth comes cost reductions
Source: U.S. Solar Market Insight, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Installations by Market Segment
488 MWdc of new
residential capacity
came online in 2012,
representing 63%
growth over 2011
1,043 MWdc of new
non-residential
capacity came online in
2012, representing 8%
growth over 2011
1,782 MWdc of new
utility capacity came
online in 2012,
representing 97%
growth over 2011
Residential Installations by State
California continues on
as the largest residential
market by far, installing
196 MWdc of new
residential capacity in
2012, more than the
next four largest state
residential markets
combined
Hawaii’s market showed
strong growth
throughout 2012,
peaking in Q4; in total,
57 MWdc of new
residential capacity was
installed there
Residential Third-Party Ownership
Third-party owned
market share broke
90% in Arizona and
neared 90% in
Colorado
TPO market share fell
in California in Q4
2012, but this doesn’t
mean fewer systems
were financed. Debt
products are becoming
increasingly prevalent
in mature state
markets.
Residential Market Forecast by State
California will remain
the largest residential
market in the next four
years even as the
state’s primary rebate,
the CSI, comes to a
close.
Arizona will also
continue to grow
despite the likelihood
that incentives will be
exhausted in 2013
New York and Texas
will become
increasingly important
in the out years
Non-Residential Installations by State
New Jersey was the
largest non-residential
market in 2011, and while
new capacity increased
in 2012, installations
rates fell throughout the
year.
California was the
leading non-residential
market, with 307 MWdc
of new capacity installed
in 2012, driven by
municipal installations.
Massachusetts grew
substantially in 2012,
though growth is
expected to slow in 2013
due to SREC oversupply.
Non-Residential Forecasts by State
The non-residential
market will experience
slowed growth in 2013,
but will continue to
comprise an
increasingly significant
portion of all U.S.
installations, especially
in the out years
California will remain
the largest market in
2013 while New Jersey
suffers from SREC
oversupply;
Massachusetts and
New York will account
for an increasing share
of the market in the
near term.
Completed Utility Installations
Utility installations
accounted for 1,782
MWdc of new generating
capacity in 2012, with 874
MWdc coming online in
Q4 2012
Unlike commercial and
residential markets,
quarterly installations are
not as telling about the
strength of the market;
one or two large projects
can significantly alter
quarter-over-quarter
growth rates
Largest Operating Utility Installations
Project Name DeveloperCapacity
(MWdc)State Offtaker Online
Agua Caliente: Phase I-IV First Solar 287.4 AZ Pacific Gas & Electric 2012
Mesquite Solar I: Phase 1-3 Sempra Generation 167.3 AZ Pacific Gas & Electric 2012
California Valley Solar Ranch: Phase I & II SunPower 130.1 CA Pacific Gas & Electric 2012
Sempra Copper Mountain II: Phase 1 Sempra Generation 105.7 NV Pacific Gas & Electric 2012
SPS Alpaugh GCL Solar Energy 65.0 CA Pacific Gas & Electric 2012
Silver State North Solar Project First Solar 60.0 NV Enbridge 2012
Sempra Copper Mountain I: Phase 1 & 2 Sempra Generation 55.2 NV Pacific Gas & Electric 2010
San Luis Valley Solar Ranch Iberdrola 38.0 CO Xcel Energy - Colorado 2011
SMUD FiT McKenzie Recurrent Energy 37.9 CA SMUD 2012
The Long Island Solar Farm BP Solar 37.0 NY LIPA 2011
Of the ten largest operating utility PV installations in the U.S., eight came online in
2012:
U.S. Utility Pipeline
Currently, more than
3,000 MWdc of utility PV
is operating in the U.S.
Of the 10.5 GW worth of
PV projects with signed
offtake agreements,
3,400 MWdc is under
construction, most of
which will come on-line in
2013 and 2014.
There are nearly 25 GW
worth of announced
projects that have yet to
secure a power offtaker.
Installed Prices
Pricing by Market Segment Pricing by Project Size
On the whole, installed prices fell steadily in 2012 across all market segments. However, a
trend of price stabilization was witnessed in Q4 2012, particularly among larger projects. This
coincided with a slowdown in module price declines.
U.S. PV Market Forecast
The U.S. market is set to
grow in 2013, to nearly 4.3
GW
The utility PV market will
continue to account for the
most new capacity
installed. Development of
new projects has slowed,
but effects of this will not
be felt until the out years.
Residential will continue its
steady growth, particularly
in states where “retail rate”
parity has been reached.
Growth will slow in the
non-residential market,
due primarily to a weak
New Jersey market.
Manufacturing
With the exception of
polysilicon, PV equipment
manufacturing continued
to fall in 2012 to a point
that is now lower than in
2009.
Increased global
competition and steady
price declines have forced
consolidation in the
upstream industry around
the world.
PV Component Pricing
Prices fell at all points of
the PV manufacturing
value chain, which
ultimately saw the average
price for modules come to
rest at just less than
$0.70/Wdc in Q4 2012.
Inverter Production Rises
While the manufacturing of
PV modules and related
components has been a
steady decline, U.S.
inverter manufacturers
continued to increase
production and shipments
throughout 2012.
CSP Set for Growth in 2013
Thank You & Contact Info
Justin Baca, Director of Research
Contact: [email protected]
Andrew Krulewitz, Solar Analyst
Contact: [email protected]
For more information about purchasing the full SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2012™ report, please visit www.gtmresearch.com/ussmi or email Justin Freedman ([email protected])
