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U.S. Wireless Broadband: U.S. Wireless Broadband: LMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed SpectrumLMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed Spectrum
February 17, 2000
Presented By:
Peter Jarich & James Mendelson
The Strategis GroupBroadband Information Services
• Telecom Information Services Since 1964
• Global Presence
• Publications in All Fields– Wireless Broadband
– Internet User Trends
– Branding & Bundling
– Competitive Telephony & Convergence
– Consumer, Financial, Technology Focus
• Online News Services
WHAT?
What Is Fixed Wireless? Why Is It Important?
The Wireless Local Loop?
• Fixed, not mobile.
• Not simply voice.• All you need is spectrum!
The Spectrum?
• Three emerging technologies.
• Individual characteristics.
• Individual costs.
Service Capacity Range Deployment Deploy CostsLMDS 150+ Mbps 3 miles very limited highMMDS 10 Mbps 35 miles sparse medium
Unlicensed 20 Mbps 20 miles limited low
The Importance?
• New Technologies• Living Examples• Major Carriers
• Real Drivers
WHY?
What is the Fixed Wireless Business Model?
Fixed Wireless Cost Structure
• 80% Labor Cost vs. 80% Equip. Costs
• “Backhoes Don’t Obey Moore’s Law.” - Tren Griffin VP Strategy, NEXTLINK
Fixed Wireless “Control Structure”
• Facilities Competition is the only option!
• Profit Control
• Service Control
• The Reality of the 14 Points
Resale
UnbundleLocal Loop
UnbundleT-1
On-Network
Profit Margins
Ser
vice
Con
trol
Wireless = Bundling (Practice)
Wireless Exceeds Expectations!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Forecast Teligent Winstar
35% 35+%
25%
Bundling Take Rates
60 - 70 mi
MMDS Cell Site Migration
• Macro to Micro-cellular deployments.
• More spectrum per end-user.
• More bandwidth per end-user.
Cell Site Migration
5-10 mi
WHO?
Who has Launched Broadband Wireless Services and Where is it Available?
Local Multipoint Distribution ServiceHype Becoming Reality
• Urban & Rural
• Major & Minor PlayersNEXTLINK
HighSpeed.Com
MMDS - Wireless CableFollowing the Cable Model
• One-Way & Two Way
• Urban & Rural
MMDS - Wireless CableSprint & MCI WorldCom Battle AT&T with Nationwide Coverage
• ~200 Markets
• Rural & Urban
Operational
Non-Operating
Unlicensed Spectrum BroadbandThe Early Winner?
• 200+ Markets
• Rural Deployment
Multipoint
HOW MUCH?
What Revenues will Wireless Broadband Earn?
Forecast Assumptions
• Internet as Key Driver– current emphasis
– local phone service is ubiquitous
– new technologies and mission-critical voice
• Scope of Total Internet Market– 2003 Business Penetration = 74.1% to 91.8%
– 2003 Residential Penetration = 83.6%
– 2003 Access & Transport Revenues = $34.1 Billion
• Target Markets• 2000 - 2001 Launch Dates
Network Coverage - Business
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
Network Coverage (Households)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2000 2001 2002 2003
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
Broadband Wireless SubscribersBusiness Subscribers
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 3872 14023 75363 155827
MMDS 3874 19334 125992 289340
Unlic. 5939 18601 65168 98599
2000 2001 2002 2003
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 12097 47446 277534 607695
MMDS 42801 126082 598458 1152612
Unlic. 1943 12202 76669 199308
2000 2001 2002 2003
Broadband Wireless SubscribersResidential Subscribers
Service RevenuesBy Technology
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
LMDSMMDSUnlic.
LMDS 25.23 101 596.36 1360.98
MMDS 29.78 115.82 697.05 1652.42
Unlic. 17.26 58.1 229.41 419.6
2000 2001 2002 2003
Mil
lion
s, $
2003 Total:$3.4 Billion
Broadband Wireless Market ShareBy Service
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
PhoneInternet
Phone 0.01% 0.06% 0.40% 1.09%
Internet 0.26% 0.78% 3.40% 5.89%
2000 2001 2002 2003
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
What Conclusions Can We Draw?
U.S. Wireless Broadband Perspectives
• Wireless Broadband Is Here Today• Wireless Is Not Just Voice• Wireless Meets End-user Demand For
Bundles• Wireless Meets Operator Demand For
Revenue And Service Control• Revenues Are Growing Quickly And Will
Be Substantial!
U.S. Wireless Broadband: U.S. Wireless Broadband: LMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed SpectrumLMDS, MMDS and Unlicensed Spectrum
To Purchase: Tim Riordan (202) 530-7591
Further Questions: Jamie Mendelson(202) 530-7589
Price:$2,400 (pdf/html)
$2,900 (print)
