14
A NRSRO Rating* Page 1 de 14 * HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Twitter: @HRRATINGS US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06 HR A- (G) Corporates September 23, 2019 Calificación 6.49% Notes due 2027 HR A- (G) 6.84% Notes due 2030 HR A- (G) 7.69% Bonds due 2050 HR A- (G) Negative Outlook Source: HR Ratings. Credit Rating Evolution HR A- (G) Initial 2019 Negative Outlook Perspectiva Estable Perspectiva Positiva Contacts José Luis Cano Corporates Executive Director / ABS [email protected] Félix Boni Chief Credit Officer [email protected] HR Ratings assigned the rating of HR A- (G) with Negative Outlook to 2050 Bonds and 2027 and 2030 Notes of Pemex for a total amount of US$7.5bn. The assignment of the ratings is based on what HR Ratings regards as a “de facto” sovereign status of Pemex debt, given its backing by the Federal Government, due to its importance as a major source of revenue for the Country, and as reflected in repeated actions by the Federal Government to support its operations. The current Sovereign Debt Rating assigned by HR Ratings for Mexico is HR A- (G) with Negative Outlook. This year, the Federal Government provided Pemex with an equity injection of P$25.0 billion (bn) in 1Q19 and a monetization of promissory notes that provided Pemex with an additional P$35.0bn in cash. The Federal Government has also promised to reduce Pemex’s tax burden, although HR Ratings has thus far seen only mixed evidence on this. On September 11 of this year (and presumably as part of the program involving these issuances) Mexico’s Treasury department (Hacienda) announced an additional equity injection for roughly US$5.0bn (approximately P$96.0bn). For 2020, the Federal Government is planning additional support for approximately P$46.3bn. The support is designed to increase the entity’s liquidity, freeing resources that Pemex is commit ted to use to improve its crude oil production levels and reserves in a short / mid-term. Thus far, production numbers have been disappointing. It is important to note that because of the support given to Pemex by the Federal Government, and despite poor operating results, debt levels have remained relatively stable over the last year. At the same time, the sovereign debt, as measured by HR Ratings has also remained relatively stable at around 41.5% of GDP although it has been benefitted over the last few months by relative stability in the peso and a relatively small deficit in the first semester. We expect a larger deficit in the second semester. The government’s policy of limiting the deficit to 2.0% of GDP, which it has been roughly able to do over the last two years, appears to be on target to do so again in 2019 and is planning to do in 2020 should lead stable and even declining debt to GDP levels. The notes and bond are listed in the Luxembourg Stock Exchange, with a maturity in approximately 7, 10 and 30 years for the 2027 Notes, 2030 Notes and 2050 Bonds, respectively; paying interest semi-annually in January and July. The guarantors are Pemex Exploración y Producción, Pemex Transformación Industrial and Pemex Logística. The use of proceeds will be destined to refinance current debt obligations.

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Page 1: US$7.5bn Issuances HR A- (G) Release_Pemex...Pemex’s tax burden increased significantly, rising from 55.9% of sales (in government accounting taxes are reported on sales of goods

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 1 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Calificación 6.49% Notes due 2027 HR A- (G) 6.84% Notes due 2030 HR A- (G) 7.69% Bonds due 2050 HR A- (G) Negative Outlook

Source: HR Ratings.

Credit Rating Evolution

HR A- (G)

Initial 2019

NegativeOutlook

PerspectivaEstable

PerspectivaPositiva

Contacts José Luis Cano Corporates Executive Director / ABS [email protected] Félix Boni Chief Credit Officer [email protected]

HR Ratings assigned the rating of HR A- (G) with Negative Outlook to 2050 Bonds and 2027 and 2030 Notes of Pemex for a total amount of US$7.5bn. The assignment of the ratings is based on what HR Ratings regards as a “de facto” sovereign status of Pemex debt, given its backing by the Federal Government, due to its importance as a major source of revenue for the Country, and as reflected in repeated actions by the Federal Government to support its operations. The current Sovereign Debt Rating assigned by HR Ratings for Mexico is HR A- (G) with Negative Outlook. This year, the Federal Government provided Pemex with an equity injection of P$25.0 billion (bn) in 1Q19 and a monetization of promissory notes that provided Pemex with an additional P$35.0bn in cash. The Federal Government has also promised to reduce Pemex’s tax burden, although HR Ratings has thus far seen only mixed evidence on this. On September 11 of this year (and presumably as part of the program involving these issuances) Mexico’s Treasury department (Hacienda) announced an additional equity injection for roughly US$5.0bn (approximately P$96.0bn). For 2020, the Federal Government is planning additional support for approximately P$46.3bn. The support is designed to increase the entity’s liquidity, freeing resources that Pemex is committed to use to improve its crude oil production levels and reserves in a short / mid-term. Thus far, production numbers have been disappointing. It is important to note that because of the support given to Pemex by the Federal Government, and despite poor operating results, debt levels have remained relatively stable over the last year. At the same time, the sovereign debt, as measured by HR Ratings has also remained relatively stable at around 41.5% of GDP although it has been benefitted over the last few months by relative stability in the peso and a relatively small deficit in the first semester. We expect a larger deficit in the second semester. The government’s policy of limiting the deficit to 2.0% of GDP, which it has been roughly able to do over the last two years, appears to be on target to do so again in 2019 and is planning to do in 2020 should lead stable and even declining debt to GDP levels. The notes and bond are listed in the Luxembourg Stock Exchange, with a maturity in approximately 7, 10 and 30 years for the 2027 Notes, 2030 Notes and 2050 Bonds, respectively; paying interest semi-annually in January and July. The guarantors are Pemex Exploración y Producción, Pemex Transformación Industrial and Pemex Logística. The use of proceeds will be destined to refinance current debt obligations.

Page 2: US$7.5bn Issuances HR A- (G) Release_Pemex...Pemex’s tax burden increased significantly, rising from 55.9% of sales (in government accounting taxes are reported on sales of goods

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 2 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Main Factors Considered

Pemex and the Federal Government: Mutual Dependency As mentioned above, the predominant factor determining HR Ratings credit evaluation of Pemex is our rating of Mexico’s sovereign debt with the two ratings coinciding. We believe that the recent actions of the Federal Government to support Pemex validates our assumption that for all practical purposes Pemex debt should be regarded as debt of the Federal Government. In this section we provide a brief summary of Pemex results based on government accounting. In the following sections the analysis is based on corporate accounting. The P$46.3bn in additional support that the Federal Government intends to provide Pemex next year is mentioned in the 2020 fiscal policy statement that was presented in the annual budget submitted to the Mexican Congress on September 8. The proposed contributions for Pemex are for P$41.3bn and P$5.0bn. The former is to finance the building of a new refinery (Dos Bocas) while the second would be a direct equity contribution to the entity1. Thanks to the contributions made by the Federal Government during the first half of the year, Pemex’s financial deficit of P$87.5bn through July was financed by cash to the amount of P$45.0bn and by P$42.4bn in debt2. Although the deficit of P$87.5bn was substantially larger than the P$51.0bn observed during the same period in 2018, the amount of new debt financing was roughly the same as cash-on-hand only financed P$9.4bn during the same period in 2018. The question of taxes paid to the Federal Government is a major issue affecting the viability of Pemex (to a degree positively as well as negatively). Before taxes and during the first seven months of the current year, Pemex reported a financial surplus of P$182.6bn, which was substantially lower than the P$251bn reported in 2018. However, due to a lower tax charge (P$270.1bn vs. P$302.5bn) the increase in the deficit was smaller (an increase in the after-tax deficit of P$36.4bn vs. a decline in the pre-tax profit of P$68.9bn). Although there was a substantial decline taxes in absolute terms, on a relative basis Pemex’s tax burden increased significantly, rising from 55.9% of sales (in government accounting taxes are reported on sales of goods and services) to 60.4%. In nominal peso terms, while pre-tax sales fell 17.4% taxes declined a much smaller 10.7%. Although taxes represent a substantial burden for Pemex, they represent a source of strength as it means that Federal Government revenues are helped by taxes paid by Pemex and thus it serves the government well to continue to support that income stream. From January through August, Pemex taxes represented 11.4% of Federal Government revenue.

1 Criterios Generales de la Política Económica 2020. The numbers are found on pp. 90 and 92. We cannot certify that the P$96bn equity contribution mentioned in the previous page does not represent a decision to advance the P$46.3bn planned for next year. 2 The analysis in this section is based on government accounting not corporate accounting as is the case for the rest of this report. The deficit number is largely based on cash accounting and includes all investment spending in contrast to corporate accounting which incorporates only a non-cash depreciation charge to net income rather than actual investment in PP&E.

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 3 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Pemex as a Corporate Entity On a “standalone” basis as a corporate entity HR Ratings methodology includes financial projections under a base and stressed scenario. The scenarios were based on the strategies and business plans defined by the entity and the projections cover the time period from 3Q18 to 4Q20. The table that follows shows a comparison between observed and projected results for last twelve months at 2Q19.

The financial results for Pemex, as a standalone entity, continue showing a serious deterioration in its operational and financial results, reaching for the last twelve months a debt coverage ratio (DSCR), based on our measure of Adjusted FCF, of 0.5x and a Net Debt to Adjusted Free Cash Flow (AFCF) of 13 years at 2Q19. Despite the fact that Pemex has managed to refinance its debt structure keeping it at a long-term, with 86.0% of its debt with a maturity longer than one year, Pemex liquidity has been under pressure since the entity’s AFCF has continued with a negative trend, as a result of smaller EBITDA generation due to a still substantially heavy tax burden, a constant reduction of its daily crude oil production and reserves, coupled with inefficiencies in refineries. This situation has also been negatively impacted by a slower recovery in international crude oil prices than expected; coupled with higher working capital requirements, as a result of an increase in accounts receivables mainly due to delays in excise tax payments from the Federal Government by the end of the year, and a lower inventory turn around due to the shortage of gasoline volume during the 1Q19, which also impacted negatively the domestic sales, partially compensated by a positive result on clients due to lower exports than expected.

Historical Performance vs. Forecasting

Decrease on Adjusted EBITDA. The beginning of a new administration, with a new strategy, lower domestic sales due to a shortage of gasolines volume during 1Q19, as a consequence of the strategy to combat the theft of gasoline, lower crude production and exports, and higher maintenance costs, partially

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 4 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

compensated by higher crude oil prices than last year, resulted on a reduction of Adjusted EBITDA in LTM3 at 2Q19 by 3.2% and 2.9%, compared to last year and our base scenario, respectively. Lower operating results were also offset by a decrease on the tax burden of Pemex and an unexpected stabilization of the crude process in the National Refining System (NRS) leading to a margin of 34.8%, lower than the 36.4% of prior year, but higher than our estimate of 33.1% for our base scenario.

Lower production of hydrocarbons and exports. In January 2019, with a volume of 1,623Mbd4, Pemex reached its lowest daily crude production in 20 years. In LTM terms at 2Q19, production volume was 1,711Mbd, 6.6% and 7.8% below our stress scenario and prior year, respectively, (1,832Mbd in stress scenario and 1,874Mbd in 2Q18), impacting also negatively the exports volume which was 7.8% below 2Q18 (1,150Mbd at 2Q19 vs. 1,247Mbd at 2Q18). This negative trend has mainly been the consequence of natural declines in mature fields, presence of water-oil contacts and fractional water flow at Xanab and some shallow water offshore fields. The declining trend could be reversed by year end if Pemex's strategy is effectively executed, the 20 new fields boost the production and international oil prices further recover.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow deterioration. With an amount of P$148.7bn, the AFCF generated by Pemex in LTM at 2Q19 was 58.3% and 44.6% below our base scenario and prior year. Showing a deterioration in our main ratios with a DSCR of 0.5x and Net debt to AFCF of 13 years, compared with the 1.0x and 7 years of the 2Q18 and the estimated 1.2x and 12 years in the base scenario. The main factors of this decline are the observed deterioration on the Adjusted EBITDA, coupled with higher working capital requirements, mainly at the end of 2018, due to delays in excise tax payments from the Federal Government and a lower inventory turn around due to the shortage of gasoline volume during the 1Q19.

Healthy debt structure, liquidity management and Capital injections. Despite the observed deterioration in Adjusted Free Cash Flow (AFCF) generation, Pemex managed to maintain its indebtedness at similar level than prior year with net debt 0.2% below 2Q18 and 8.8% below prior year and our base scenario. Also, Pemex has maintained a debt structure aligned to its business model, with 86.0% of its total debt long-term (vs. 91.9% at 2Q18), helping to reduce the pressure on the entity’s liquidity. This was achieved through capital injections from the Federal Government of P$25.0bn and P$35.0bn monetization of promissory notes, during the first half of this year, refinancing strategies and renewal of its credit lines.

Future Assumptions

Further Federal Government support. Our rating assumes that the government will continue supporting the Company through capital injection and policies, such as fiscal burden reductions, that will contribute to improve its financial and operative results. So far, the Federal Governments has expressed its intention to continue sourcing the entity’s requirements with capital injections in 2020, 2021 and 2022 for a total amount of P$141.0bn.

3 Last Twelve Months. 4 Mbd = Thousands of Barrels per Day, due to is acronym in Spanish.

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 5 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Crude Production and Reserves restitution. The main element that supports the strategy of the current administration is the reversion of the decline trend on the crude oil production, hence, our estimates considers a gradual growing trend of the production levels, taking into consideration the observed investments and works that the Pemex has already done in the development of new fields, however, we projected that the reserves restitution ratio will be under pressure.

Price estimates. The Mexican crude oil export mix average has showed a declining trend achieving an average price of US$58.5 per barrel in the first half of the year. The periods to follow will be impacted by weaker global indicators, the possible extension of OPEC agreement and geopolitical conflicts in Middle East and Latin America, coupled with growing production level in the United States of America. Therefore, our estimates consider that the price will be close to US$57.0 per barrel by the end of 2019, keeping and average below the U$50.0 per barrel for the years to come.

Indebtedness levels. Taking into consideration the planned support from the Federal Government to Pemex, we calculate that the entity will achieve its defined short-term objective of no increase of net indebtedness between 2019 and 2021, however, the planned gradual reduction of its debt will depend on the crude oil production levels and efficiencies that the entity could achieve.

National Refining System. The crude oil processing at the NRS continue showing lower levels than the prior year by 11.1%, however, is expected that Pemex will fully reactivate the six refineries in a short-term. But there is a risk that the refining margin will not improve if Pemex cannot reduce its no programed stops, increase their utilization ratio and actualize them to process more profitable product.

Additional Factors Considered

Business Plan 2019-2023. On July 2019, Pemex released its 2019-2023 business

plan which defined important miles stones, such as, a balanced budget by 2021 and a reversal of the downward trend in crude production to achieve an average production level of 2,697Mbd in 2024. Also, the business plan defines direct supports from the Federal Government and reductions in Pemex’s fiscal burden, with the main objective of easing the entity’s liquidity leading to higher oil production. Furthermore, the new business plan defines an increased investment in the National Refining System and a gradual replacement of refined products imports with domestic or local production. Private investment is only considered as a complement through service contracts for extraction and exploration.

Factors that could upgrade or downgrade the rating

Sovereign Rating. Any positive or negative impact on Mexico’s sovereign rating

will directly affect the global rating of Pemex given the “de facto” sovereign status

that its debt has. Also, the Negative Outlook reflects that on the sovereign and

reaffirms our view of a close relationship between Pemex and Mexico ratings.

For this analysis a technical note was considered to incorporated two fundamental principles regarding the credit rating that HR Ratings applies to Pemex. First, as we believe that the Federal Government has an implicit guaranty to support Pemex debt,

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 6 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

the rating given to Pemex must be the same as the rating we give to the Mexican Sovereign Debt. This Sovereign Debt rating is not a rating for Mexico’s Federal Government, as such, but rather a rating for the bulk of the debt included in Mexico’s Federal Public Sector. Formally, Mexico’s Federal Public Sector debt includes the debt of: 1) The Federal Government, 2) The Productive State Enterprises (Empresas Productivas del Estado) and 3) the Development Bank sector (Banca de Desarrollo). In our Sovereign Debt rating we incorporate the first and the second components. Pemex is included within the second as a Productive State Enterprise. The second principle is related to Pemex´s tax burden, given the high level of taxation that has been imposed on it as a state entity operating as a virtual public utility monopoly extracting resources that ultimately belong to the State and not to Pemex, hence, we add back a portion of its taxes. This is done in order to evaluate its FCF as if it were a “normal” corporate entity. This gives us an Adjusted Free Cash Flow measure. The present notes and bonds also received the following long-term ratings: BBB+ by Standard & Poors Global Rating Services, BB+ by Fitch Ratings and Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service. Additionally, the issuer (Pemex) has a Negative Outlook assigned by Standard & Poors, Fitch Ratings and Moody´s.

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 7 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Appendix – Baseline Scenario

Note: Projections are from our last annual rating review of October 2, 2018. The appendixes were updated with information up to 2Q19.

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 8 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 9 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 10 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Appendix – Stress Scenario

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 11 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 12 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

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A NRSRO Rating*

Page 13 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

HR Ratings Management Contacts

Management

Chairman of the Board Vice President

Alberto I. Ramos +52 55 1500 3130 Aníbal Habeica +52 55 1500 3130

[email protected] [email protected]

Chief Executive Officer

Fernando Montes de Oca +52 55 1500 3130

[email protected]

Analysis

Chief Credit Officer Deputy Chief Credit Officer

Felix Boni +52 55 1500 3133 Pedro Latapí +52 55 8647 3845

[email protected] [email protected]

Public Finance / Infrastructure Corporates / ABS

Ricardo Gallegos +52 55 1500 3139 Hatsutaro Takahashi +52 55 1500 3146

[email protected] [email protected]

Roberto Ballinez +52 55 1500 3143 José Luis Cano +52 55 1500 0763

[email protected] [email protected]

Financial Institutions / ABS Methodologies

Fernando Sandoval +52 55 1253 6546 Alfonso Sales +52 55 1500 3140

[email protected] [email protected]

Regulation

Chief Risk Officer Head Compliance Officer

Rogelio Argüelles +52 181 8187 9309 Rafael Colado +52 55 1500 3817

[email protected] [email protected]

Business Development

Business Development

Francisco Valle +52 55 1500 3134

[email protected]

Page 14: US$7.5bn Issuances HR A- (G) Release_Pemex...Pemex’s tax burden increased significantly, rising from 55.9% of sales (in government accounting taxes are reported on sales of goods

A NRSRO Rating*

Page 14 de 14

* HR Ratings LLC. (HR Ratings), is a HR Ratings de México, S.A. de C.V. subsidiary, a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States as an NRSRO for this type of rating. HR Ratings’ recognition as an NRSRO is limited to the ones described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Twitter: @HRRATINGS

US$7.5bn Issuances Petróleos Mexicanos

ISIN: US71654QCQ38, US71654QCT76, US71654QCW06

HR A- (G)

Corporates September 23, 2019

Mexico: Avenida Prolongación Paseo de la Reforma #1015 torre A, piso 3, Col. Santa Fe, México, D.F., CP 01210, Tel 52 (55) 1500 3130. United States: One World Trade Center, Suite 8500, New York, New York, ZIP Code 10007, Tel +1 (212) 220 5735.

Complementary information

Previous Rating. Initial

Date of the last Rating Action. Initial

Period of the financial information used by HR Ratings for the assignment of the current rating.

1st Quarter 2011 to 2nd Quarter 2019.

Main sources of information used, including third parties. Internal financial and operational report published by the Company, final term sheet of the notes and bonds, presentations issued by the Company and Audited Financial Statements by BOD and KPMG for 2018 year.

Ratings assigned by other rating agencies that were used by HR Ratings (if so). NA

HR Ratings considered at the moment of assigning or reviewing the rating, the existence of mechanisms designed to align the incentives between the originator, servicer and guarantor and the possible buyers of the rated instrument (where it applies).

NA

*HR Ratings, LLC (HR Ratings), is a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) for the assets of public finance, corporates and financial institutions as described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

The rating was solicited by the entity or issuer, or on its behalf, and therefore, HR Ratings has received the corresponding fees for the rating services provided. The following information can be found on our website at www.hrratings.com: (i) The internal procedures for the monitoring and surveillance of our ratings and the periodicity with which they are formally updated, (ii) the criteria used by HR Ratings for the withdrawal or suspension of the maintenance of a rating, (iii) the procedure and process of voting on our Analysis Committee, and (iv) the rating scales and their definitions. HR Ratings ratings and/or opinions are opinions of credit quality and/or regarding the ability of management to administer assets; or opinions regarding the efficacy of activities to meet the nature or purpose of the business on the part of issuers, other entities or sectors, and are based exclusively on the characteristics of the entity, issuer or operation, independent of any activity or business that exists between HR Ratings and the entity or issuer. The ratings and/or opinions assigned are issued on behalf of HR Ratings, not of its management or technical staff, and do not constitute an investment recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any instrument nor to perform any business, investment or other operation. The assigned ratings and/or opinions issued may be subject to updates at any time, in accordance with HR Ratings’ methodologies. HR Ratings bases its ratings and/or opinions on information obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate and reliable. HR Ratings, however, does not validate, guarantee or certify the accuracy, correctness or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Most issuers of debt securities rated by HR Ratings have paid a fee for the credit rating based on the amount and type of debt issued. The degree of creditworthiness of an issue or issuer, opinions regarding asset manager quality or ratings related to an entity’s performance of its business purpose are subject to change, which can produce a rating upgrade or downgrade, without implying any responsibility for HR Ratings. The ratings issued by HR Ratings are assigned in an ethical manner, in accordance with healthy market practices and in compliance with applicable regulations found on the www.hrratings.com rating agency webpage. There Code of Conduct, HR Ratings’ rating methodologies, rating criteria and current ratings can also be found on the website. Ratings and/or opinions assigned by HR Ratings are based on an analysis of the creditworthiness of an entity, issue or issuer, and do not necessarily imply a statistical likelihood of default, HR Ratings defines as the inability or unwillingness to satisfy the contractually stipulated payment terms of an obligation, such that creditors and/or bondholders are forced to take action in order to recover their investment or to restructure the debt due to a situation of stress faced by the debtor. Without disregard to the aforementioned point, in order to validate our ratings, our methodologies consider stress scenarios as a complement to the analysis derived from a base case scenario. The rating fee that HR Ratings receives from issuers generally ranges from US$1,000 to US$1,000,000 (or the foreign currency equivalent) per issue. In some instances, HR Ratings will rate all or some of the issues of a particular issuer for an annual fee. It is estimated that the annual fees range from US$5,000 to US$2,000,00 (or the foreign currency equivalent).

The rating assigned by HR Ratings LLC to the entity, issuer and/or issue is based upon the analysis performed under a base case and stress case scenario, in accordance with the following methodology (ies) established by the rating agency: Rating Methodology for Corporate Debt Credit Risk Evaluation, May 2014 General Methodological Criteria, March 2019 Sovereign Debt Methodology, May 2017 Adjustments for the Free Cash Flow and Pemex Debt as Sovereign Technical Note, October 2014 For more information with respect to this (these) methodology (ies), please consult the website:

www.hrratings.com/en/methodology