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Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban & Rural Transit Center Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, North Dakota State University 20 th National Conference for Rural Public & Intercity Bus Transportation October 15, 2012 Salt Lake City, UT

Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

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Page 1: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Use of Alternative Fuels and

Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban

and Rural Transit Systems

Jeremy Mattson

Small Urban & Rural Transit Center

Upper Great Plains Transportation

Institute, North Dakota State University

20th National Conference for Rural

Public & Intercity Bus Transportation

October 15, 2012 – Salt Lake City, UT

Page 2: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Survey Overview

• Survey of 115 rural and small urban transit systems on use of: • Biodiesel

• E85

• Propane

• CNG

• Hybrid-electric vehicles

• Conducted April 2011

• Main topics • Use

• Satisfaction

• Problems

• Perceived benefits/reasons for adoption

• Deterrents

Page 3: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Number of Transit Agencies Surveyed

Targeted Surveys

Sent

Surveys

Successfully Delivered

Survey

Responses Submitted

--------------------Number of transit agencies--------------------

Small Urban 394 305 NA 54+

Large Rural 270 245 NA 37+

Total 664 550 496 115

Page 4: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Locations of Transit Agencies Responding

to Survey

Page 5: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Alternative Fuel and Hybrid Vehicle Use

by Responding Agencies

31

8 4

10

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Num

ber

of tr

ansit a

gencie

s

Page 6: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid

Vehicles, by Urban and Rural Number (Percentage)

Yes No Urban

Biodiesel 18 (38%) 30 (63%)

Flex Fuel Vehicle 16 (30%) 38 (70%)

E85 in FFV 3 (19%) 13 (81%)

Propane 2 (4%) 52 (96%)

CNG 7 (13%) 47 (87%)

Hybrids 19 (35%) 35 (65%)

Rural

Biodiesel 3 (12%) 23 (88%)

Flex Fuel Vehicle 10 (27%) 27 (73%)

E85 in FFV 3 (27%) 8 (73%)

Propane 2 (5%) 35 (95%)

CNG 2 (5%) 35 (95%)

Hybrids 3 (8%) 34 (92%)

Page 7: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Locations of Responding Agencies the use

Alternative Fuels or Hybrids

(a) Biodiesel (b) E85

(c) Propane (d) CNG

(e) Hybrids

Page 8: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Satisfaction Reported by Users

n Very

satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Neither

satisfied

nor dissatisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Very dissatisfied

Biodiesel 22 27% 36% 14% 18% 5%

E85 7 29% 0% 57% 14% 0%

Propane 4 0% 75% 25% 0% 0%

CNG 9 56% 44% 0% 0% 0% Hybrid-electric 24 50% 17% 8% 8% 17%

Page 9: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reasons for Adopting Biodiesel

38%

29%

24%

41%

71%

14%

5%

57%

52%

52%

36%

29%

62%

38%

5%

19%

24%

23%

24%

57%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Reducing emissions

Energy dependency concerns

Desire to utilize local resources andproducts

Political directives

Improving public perception

Positive performance impacts of thefuel

Fuel cost savings

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason

Page 10: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents before Adoption by Biodiesel

Users

24%

5%

5%

43%

19%

48%

19%

29%

33%

29%

10%

52%

38%

24%

19%

38%

33%

38%

48%

29%

10%

14%

24%

57%

71%

38%

43%

19%

43%

24%

38%

62%

76%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Fuel mileage

Infrastructure cost

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Cold weather performance

Adequate/dependable fuel supply

Fuel quality

Engine warranty

NOx emissions

Lack of information

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent

Page 11: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reported Problems with Biodiesel

7

5

4

5

3

2

9

7

5

8

7

5

7

6

15

12

10

10

14

13

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Fuel mileage

Maintenance

Reliability

Cold weather performance

Fuel quality

Adequate/dependable fuel supply

Major problem Minor problem No greater problem

Page 12: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents for Agencies Not Using

Biodiesel

25

10

30

28

14

14

17

38

24

9

18

11

15

6

10

18

17

16

5

12

11

13

7

16

12

10

9

9

8

7

7

11

15

13

16

9

9

14

14

14

7

13

21

11

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Fuel mileage

Infrastructure cost

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Cold weather performance

Fuel quality

Adequate/dependable fuel supply

Engine warranty

NOx emissions

Lack of information

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent Don't know

Page 13: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reasons for Adopting E85

1

2

3

1

2

6

4

3

4

4

4

1

1

1

3

2

3

3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Reducing emissions

Energy dependency concerns

Desire to utilize local resources andproducts

Political directives

Improving public perception

Positive performance impacts of thefuel

Fuel cost savings

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason

Page 14: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents before Adoption of E85

2

2

2

2

1

4

2

1

3

4

3

1

4

2

5

1

2

1

2

4

2

1

5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Fuel mileage

Infrastructure cost

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Adequate and dependable fuel…

Fuel quality

Lack of information about E85

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent

Page 15: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reported Problems with E85

1

1

3

3

3

4

4

2

3

3

2

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Maintenance

Reliability

Overall performance

Adequate/dependable fuel supply

Major problem Minor problem No greater problem

Page 16: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents for Agencies with Flex Fuel

Vehicles that do not use E85

6

7

8

5

6

6

11

6

6

5

3

3

5

5

5

5

6

3

6

7

7

5

3

5

5

5

1

5

6

5

5

6

5

6

5

5

3

6

3

3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Fuel mileage

Infrastructure cost

Maintenance

Reliability

Overall performance

Adequate/dependable fuel supply

Fuel quality

Vehicle availability

Lack of information about E85

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent Don't know

Page 17: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reasons for Adopting Propane Given by

Agencies that Use the Fuel

2

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

2

1

2

3

1

2

2

3

3

1

1

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Reducing emissions

Energy dependency concerns

Desire to utilize local resources…

Political directives

Improving public perception

Positive performance impacts of…

Fuel cost savings

Maintenance cost savings

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason

Page 18: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Problems Reported with Using Propane

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

2

3

4

2

3

2

3

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Dependable and secure fuel supply

Safety hazards

Limited vehicle range

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Lack of technical/mechanical…

Vehicle performance

Major problem Minor problem No greater problem

Page 19: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents from Adopting Propane by

Agencies that Do Not Use Propane

64%

42%

30%

73%

72%

49%

38%

43%

45%

33%

61%

23%

31%

15%

24%

14%

9%

10%

14%

25%

24%

19%

23%

14%

21%

19%

3%

15%

23%

5%

8%

18%

15%

9%

13%

16%

10%

20%

31%

18%

19%

33%

14%

10%

19%

23%

25%

24%

29%

15%

36%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

High capital cost of the vehicles

Vehicle availability

Fuel cost

Development and implementation of new fuel…

Modifications to maintenance facility

Adequate and dependable fuel supply

Safety hazards

Limited vehicle range

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Lack of technical/mechanical expertise for…

Vehicle performance

Lack of information about propane vehicles

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent Don't know

Page 20: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reasons Given for Adopting CNG

8

4

3

3

6

5

1

6

5

2

3

4

5

1

1

4

1

5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Reducing emissions

Energy dependency concerns

Desire to utilize local resources andproducts

Political directives

Improving public perception

Positive performance impacts of thefuel

Fuel cost savings

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason

Page 21: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Problems Reported with CNG Vehicles

1

2

1

1

3

2

5

5

3

5

9

6

8

3

5

6

5

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fuel cost

Dependable/secure fuel supply

Safety hazards

Limited vehicle range

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Vehicle performance

Major problem Minor problem No greater problem

Page 22: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents for Adopting CNG by Agencies

Not Using CNG

47

28

21

60

58

37

29

28

37

20

20

19

12

16

10

2

5

9

14

23

12

19

19

17

3

15

21

2

4

13

14

8

8

12

14

23

16

19

26

12

12

18

20

19

21

27

25

17

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

High capital cost of the vehicles

Vehicle availability

Fuel cost

Development and implementation of new fuel…

Modifications to maintenance facility

Adequate and dependable fuel supply

Safety hazards

Limited vehicle range

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Vehicle performance

Lack of information about natural gas vehicles

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent Don't know

Page 23: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Reasons Given for Adopting Hybrids

16

11

10

16

19

8

10

9

6

5

1

4

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Reducing emissions

Energy dependency concerns

Political directives

Improving public perception

Fuel cost savings

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason

Page 24: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents for Hybrid Vehicles Considered

by Agencies that Use Hybrids

13

1

6

7

5

4

2

10

7

7

8

9

4

7

4

1

16

15

9

8

14

12

18

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

High capital cost of the vehicle

Vehicle availability

Depot modification costs

Cost to replace battery

Maintenance issues

Reliability

Vehicle performance

Lack of information about hybrids

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent

Page 25: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Problems Reported with Hybrids

3

3

3

4

2

6

17

19

15

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Maintenance

Reliability

Vehicleperformance

Major problem Minor problem No greater problem

Page 26: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Deterrents for Adopting Hybrid Vehicles

by Agencies that Do Not Use Hybrids

53

30

32

45

30

27

28

22

8

17

12

8

14

15

13

13

2

11

13

1

6

7

11

20

5

8

9

14

16

16

14

11

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

High capital cost of the vehicle

Vehicle availability

Depot modification costs

Costs to replace battery

Maintenance issues

Reliability concerns

Vehicle performance

Lack of information

Major deterrent Minor deterrent Not a deterrent Don't know

Page 27: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Major Findings

• Reducing emissions most important for hybrid or CNG adopters

• Energy dependency concerns, improving public perception, and fuel cost savings more important reason for hybrid adoption than biodiesel

• Fuel cost was found to most likely be a deterrent for biodiesel. Many agencies did not know if fuel cost would be a problem for the alternative fuels.

• Fuel mileage was often considered a major deterrent for E85, and some agencies also considered it a major deterrent for biodiesel.

• For agencies that did not use biodiesel, infrastructure cost was commonly mentioned as a major deterrent.

Page 28: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Major Findings

• Concern with maintenance issues was major deterrent. Some agencies were also concerned about fuel quality for biodiesel.

• Lack of an adequate and dependable fuel supply was a major deterrent for all alternative fuels. This was listed as a major deterrent for about half of E85, propane, and natural gas non-users and two-thirds of biodiesel non-users.

• Lack of information was considered a major deterrent for about one fourth to one third of agencies.

• Overall performance was most likely to be considered a deterrent for hybrid vehicles.

• Vehicle availability was a major deterrent for 45% of agencies for hybrids and 42% of agencies for propane vehicles. It was considered less of a deterrent for E85 and was not a deterrent for biodiesel use.

Page 29: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Major Findings

• Vehicle cost was the greatest deterrent for use of hybrids

and also one of the most significant deterrents for

propane and natural gas use.

• Development and implementation of new fuel

infrastructure and modifications to maintenance facilities

were the greatest deterrents for use of propane and

natural gas.

• Safety hazards and limited vehicle range are also

considered major deterrents by a significant number of

agencies for adopting propane or natural gas.

Page 30: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Differences Between Users and Non-

Users • Larger agencies and those in urban areas more likely to

adopt (with the exception of E85 and propane)

• Users are more likely than non-users to identify benefits

• 71% of biodiesel users thought improving public perception was a

major benefit, compared to just 31% of non-users

• Non-users more likely than users to identify deterrents

• Deterrents may be real or perceived

Page 31: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Differences Between Urban and Rural

Transit Providers • Rural operators were less likely than urban operators to

be “very satisfied” with hybrids or CNG

• Adequate and dependable fuel supply and limited vehicle

range was a greater deterrent for rural operators

• Rural operators were less likely than urban operators to

identify benefits from using hybrids, CNG, or propane

• Some rural respondents indicated there would be no or

little benefit in using a hybrid vehicle in rural areas

Page 32: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Factors Affecting Adoption

• Agency characteristics

• Perceived benefits

• Perceived deterrent

Page 33: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Results from Binary Logit Model of Adoption Biodiesel Hybrids

Odds Ratio Vehicles (number) 1.067*** 1.016 Vehicle miles (thousand) 1.001* 1.000 Vehicle hours (thousand) 0.959** 0.994 Urban 74.698** 8.420* Perceived benefits

Emissions 32.043** 1.343 Energy dependancy 0.322 0.146* Local resources 0.525 Public perception 33.154*** 4.890* Cost savings 0.525 5.113*

Deterrents Fuel cost 0.718 Infrastructure cost/Depot modification

cost 0.119 0.090** Fuel supply 0.061* Lack of information 0.913 Fuel efficiency 0.775 Vehicle cost 0.635

n=86

*p < .10 **p < .05 ***p < .01

Page 34: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Factors Affecting Satisfaction with

Biodiesel • Agency characteristics

• Size, urban/rural

• Number of years using biodiesel

• Provision of training

• Change blend in winter months

• Percentage of fleet that uses biodiesel

Page 35: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Results from Ordered Logit Model of

Biodiesel Satisfaction Odds Ratio

Vehicles (number) 1.119**

Vehicle miles (thousand) 0.998

Vehicle hours (thousand) 0.983

Urban 0.059

Years of experience 0.662

Training 0.348

Change blend 6.000

Percentage of fleet 1.070**

n=20

*p < .10 **p < .05 ***p < .01

Page 36: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

Conclusions

• Larger, urban agencies more likely to adopt

• Beliefs about benefits and deterrents influence adoption

• Beliefs about benefits of emissions reductions, improved public

perception, and cost savings are motivating factors

• Concerns about infrastructure costs and fuel supply influence

decision to adopt

• Transit agencies generally satisfied with alternative fuels

and hybrids, though some have reported problems

• Experiences of users can differ from the expectations or

perceptions of non-users

Page 37: Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and … · Use of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Vehicles by Small Urban and Rural Transit Systems Jeremy Mattson Small Urban

THANK YOU

Jeremy Mattson

Associate Research Fellow

Small Urban & Rural Transit Center

Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute

North Dakota State University

[email protected]

www.surtc.org

701-231-5496