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USGS Global Change ScienceNational Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center and SE Regional HubSonya JonesUSGS Southeast Area
NIDIS Planning MeetingJuly 21-22, 2009Chapel Hill, NC
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
http://nccw.usgs.gov/
USGS Global Change Science Development
• National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC): A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities in natural systems
• Climate Effects Network: A vision for a national climate early-warning system
• Carbon Sequestration: Geological and biological approaches to understanding the fluxes, sequestration and impacts on human and natural systems
Partner Listening Sessions
• National Meeting – December 2008• North American Wildlife and Natural
Resources Conference – March 2009• Eastern Region – May 2009• Central Region – June 2009• Western Region – June 2009• National Meeting – July 2009
National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center
• A partnership to sustain fish & wildlife communities• Forecasts fish & wildlife change through:
– Down-scaled climate models and derivative products– Integration with ecological & habitat models– Defining population and habitat responses at appropriate scales– Developing response options in an adaptive monitoring framework
• Joint decision-making with Federal, State and NGO communities
• National and regional focus on adaptation/impacts
RISA
NEON
USDA
• Down-scaling of GCMs
• Regional Response - Eco & Population Models
• Forecasting
Regional Climate Science Hubs
• GIS & Models
• Species/habitat assessment
• Adaptive Mgmt monitoring
• Feedback
• Carbon Cycling (?)
Adaptive Application Partnerships
• National Syntheses
• Standardized Approaches
• New Science & Methodologies
• Communication
NCCWSC Oversight
Boards
National Partnerships
NPNNASA
• Science• Decision-making
CEN
National Climate Change & Wildlife Science Center
NCCWSC Priorities• Analyses of climate information and derivative products• Forecasts of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in
response to climate change• Integration of physical climate information with ecological and
habitat response models • Standardized approaches to facilitate linking existing monitoring
to climate models and ecological and biological response models
• Communication - sharing information across Regional Hubs and making science products available to natural resource managers
NCCWSC APPROACH
Global Climate ModelDownscaling Ecosystem Response
&Forecasting Regional Habitat &
Population Response
Forecasting Habitat & Species
ResponseFood
HabitatRecruitment
Adaptive Management & MonitoringSite Specific Species or Populations Response
Regional Climate Science Hub
Adaptive Application Partnerships
Science-based
Management-based
NCCWSC National Office
Regional Climate Science Hubs
• Cover the Nation (7or 8)• Science-based• University hosted• Ecological & political boundaries• Self-generating
– Covering multiple AAP’s/LCC’s
Partnerships are key
Regional Climate Science Hubs• Downscaled climate information – linked with
ecological/biological response models at scales that help managers develop effective adaptive management strategies
• Regional response modeling and forecasting of fish and wildlife population and habitat change in response to climate change
• Derivative products - that link biological and ecological response variables with physical forcing factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation)
• Modeling possible response scenarios for managers to use in an adaptive management framework
Adaptive Application Partnerships• Four to six per Hub• Landscape/geography-based• Partnership-led• Regional Climate Science Hub Outputs:
– Combination of expression w/other landscape drivers– Geographic expression of ecological & habitat nodes
from RCSH’s at management scales– Priority management goals and time frames
Adaptive Application Partnerships
• USGS Commitments– Research & Modeling– Adaptive response
forecasts including other drivers
– Monitoring protocols
• USGS Benefits– Strengthening RCSH output– Builds traditional strengths– Partners with other
expertise– Leverages resources– Feeds CEN & other
monitoring needs
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Demonstration project: integrates climate change
science with habitat and species response models to assess impacts on avian and aquatic species
• Cast predictive models calibrated from data gathered during recent decades• NOAA Climate data• Remote sensing data• USGS - BBS & MAPS data• Downscaled climate models• Watershed modeling
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Regional probabilistic projections of climate change
to support all projects• Regional probabilistic projections of landuse change
to support all projects• Pilot Projects
– Ecological models to project impacts to avian and aquatic species (SAMBI and ACF basin)
– Sea-level rise – impacts on coastal fish and wildlife (AL & MS)
– Integrate terrestrial and aquatic habitat conservation
SE Regional Science Hub Pilot• Staffing
– Science lead/coordinator– climate modeler– Ecological/habitat modeler– data management/support
• Location– University TBD after RFI
• Products– Regional climate models– Regional land use change
models– Regional ecological models– Data management
• Integration with AAPs– Ecoregionally based teams
responsible for finer scale biological planning and conservation design