USING CLIMATOLOGY TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS IN

SOUTHEAST COLORADOStan Rose, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, CO

Microburst Winds

Damaging WindsDamaging Winds

• Thunderstorms can produce strong damaging wind gusts up to 100 mph.

• Cold dense rain cooled air accelerates down from the thunderstorm base and spreads outward along the ground creating strong outflow winds.

Aircraft Induced Lightning

ThunderstormsThunderstorms

• Ingredients for a Thunderstorm– Moisture– Instability– Lift

• Sun warms the ground and the air begins to rise (convection)

• Clouds form and build into thunderstorms as moisture condenses within the rising bubbles of air

NWS Pueblo’s County Warning and Forecast Area

NWS Pueblo’s County Warning and Forecast Area

Severe Winds, Southeast Colorado

Time of Severe Weather

Lightning Flash DensityLightning Flash Density

The Monsoon

Annual Lightning Density,Southeast Colorado

Lightning Flash DensityLightning Flash Density

COS PUB

Lightning Density: June

COS PUB

Lightning Density: August

COS PUB

Lightning Density: September

COS PUB

Lightning Density: October

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 17Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 18Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 19Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 22Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 01Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: 03Z

COS PUB

Lightning Density: March

COS PUB

L

March 23, 2010 8 pm MDT IR satellite

Radar, 8:48pm

METARs 10 pm MST

0

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4

6

8

10

12

14

16

17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 00Z 01Z 02Z 03Z 04Z 05Z 06Z 07Z

TS or VCTS in METAR, KCOS Jul-Aug-Sep 2011

July 14, 2011 00Z

TAFS: For Colorado Springs, Pueblo: August

KCOS 081200Z 0812/1612 36008KT P6SM FEW100 SCT200 FM081600 14010KT P6SM SCT100 SCT150 FM082100 16012KT P6SM VCTS SCT070CB BKN100 FM090100 07012KT P6SM SCT060 BKN120

KPUB 081200Z 0812/0912 30007KT P6SM SCT200 FM081600 12010KT P6SM SCT120 SCT200 FM082200 12015KT P6SM VCTS SCT080CB BKN120 FM090100 09012KT P6SM FEW080 SCT150

THAT’S ALL FOLKS!!