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Using External Environmental Scanning andForecasting to Improve Strategic PlanningJoel D. LapinThe Community College of Baltimore County

The effectiveness of community colleges is increasingly dependent on their understanding of the externalenvironment and their capacity to forecast and respond to the changing external landscape. As a result,they need to establish a system to continuously monitor changes in that environment and to identify andweigh the implications of changes on the communities they serve and on the colleges as well. This can beaccomplished in part by developing and implementing an external environmental scanning andforecasting activity to identify trends in the external environment and use external trends to develop astrategic plan. This article will explain external environmental scanning and forecasting and discuss itsessential role in developing a strategic plan that anticipates and responds to forces of change affectingboth community colleges and the communities they serve. Evidence of success includes two case studiesof community colleges which used external environmental scanning and forecasting to identify coretrends in their respective communities and developed strategic plans to address these forces of change.

The need for strategic planning is often ac-celerated by the complexity, frequency, and impli-cations of change that originate in the turbulent ex-ternal environment faced by colleges and the com-munities they serve. Community colleges in particu-lar are impacted by changes outside the campus andare open and vulnerable to changes from the outsideenvironment in at least two respects. First, the com-munities and the students served by community col-leges reflect the speed, complexity, and uneasinessassociated with change, which are manifested by stu-dents enrolling in the college for improved and/ornew knowledge, skills, and behaviors. Second, theeffectiveness of community colleges in matchingtheir program offerings for a skilled workforce andthe enhanced quality of life that an educated popu-lace brings to a community is coupled with commu-nity expectations that community colleges are posi-tive agents of socialization and change. To function

effectively, community colleges must therefore useexternal environmental scanning and forecastingtechniques to anticipate and respond to change in theexternal environment.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an in-troduction to external environmental scanning andforecasting as a basic pre-requisite for successfulorganizational change and to describe its role in im-proving a college’s strategic planning process andthe resulting plan. And while external environmen-tal scanning and forecasting continues to be an im-portant tool for steering the institution on an ongo-ing basis, this paper looks only at those tools in thecontext of creating or revising a strategic plan. Toillustrate the effectiveness of external environmen-tal scanning and forecasting in shaping a strategicplan, the results of this activity by two colleges arepresented and compared to the new vision, mission,and strategic goals they developed.

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agent of economic and social change and is respon-sive to the ever changing needs of students and com-munities. For these benefits alone, there is merit inestablishing this activity and using its results to im-prove community college planning and overall ef-fectiveness.

Types of Changes in the ExternalEnvironment

External environmental scanners and forecast-ers distinguish at least four types of changes in theexternal environment. The first, and arguably themost important, is a trend. A trend (Morrison & Held,1989) is “a statement of a general direction ofchange—usually gradual, long-term change in theforces shaping the future of an organization, region,nation or society in general.” In the most basic sense,a trend statement indicates a behavior or change inthe external environment and its likely future direc-tion. Trends are often rooted in a society’s structureand may or may not be linear in direction. Sometrends may be international in dimension while oth-ers can be national, regional, or local. Indeed, one ofthe more important aspects of external environmen-tal scanning and forecasting is determining whetheror not, and the extent to which, international andnational trends may affect a given jurisdiction or or-ganization.

For planning purposes it is equally importantto identify indigenous trends that may go undetec-ted by scanning at broader levels of focus. For ex-ample, while demographers state that the elderlypopulation in the US will increase in the future andwill largely be composed of non-Hispanic whites,this trend is much more visible and pronounced inmany parts of the rural Midwest. And, while hostil-ity between federal and local government levels isnot especially widespread in the US, an external en-vironmental scan (Lapin, 2000) reported that in north-east Nevada the local political culture is one of hos-tility between county government and the federalagency that controls public lands.

Morrison and Held (1989) identified three otherchanges, all of which are less relevant to include in astrategic plan covering three to five years or longer.

An Introduction to ExternalEnvironmental Scanning andForecasting

The preferred technique used by many organi-zations to monitor the external environment is toconduct external environmental scanning and fore-casting. Brown and Weiner (cited in Morrison &Held, 1989) defined environmental scanning as a“kind of radar to scan the world systematically andsignal the new, the unexpected, the major, and theminor.” Coates (1986) maintained that it includes:• Detecting scientific, technical, economic, social,

and political interactions and other elements im-portant to the organization.

• Defining the potential threats or opportunities andthe potential changes for the organization causedby those events.

• Promoting a futures orientation in managementand staff.

• Alerting management and staff to trends that areconverging, diverging, speeding up, slowingdown, or interacting.

In short, external environmental scanning andforecasting is “trend spotting.” When used to con-struct an institution’s strategic plan, it improves thelikelihood that the organization will be able to de-fine its preferred future as opposed to reacting to animposed future. While it is impossible to predict thefuture with certainty, external environmental scan-ning and forecasting can, and does, reduce someuncertainty in organizational planning and allows anorganization to reduce its vulnerability to undetec-ted change. By providing an organization with an“advanced warning system” for changes, it also pro-vides an opportunity to give an institution a com-petitive edge. A well written strategic plan, devel-oped by extensively engaged college faculty, staff,and administrators in the external environmentalscanning and forecasting process, permits employ-ees throughout the institution to act and react quicklyto changing external conditions because they haveparticipated in and understand the external contextunderlying the strategic plan. A well written plan alsocan improve the ability of the college to better ar-ticulate to its communities how it functions as an

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However, these change types should be included inthe regular external environmental scanning and fore-casting processes. Briefly, the three other changetypes are:• an event, which is a short-term change, a one-time

phenomenon in the external environment.• an emerging issue, defined as a potential contro-

versy that arises out of a trend or event which mayrequire some form of response.

• “wild cards” of change that Rockfellow(1994)further defined as an event having a low probabil-ity of occurrence but an inordinately high impactif it does occur.

In contrast, trends have some “shelf-life” orpermanence to the extent that they will be presentover some period of years and have consequencesfor a community’s or an institution’s future. There-fore, external trends should be a driving force in shap-ing an institution’s strategic plan. Once a college hasidentified a set of trends in its external environmentand a set of implications for each trend, then it hasestablished critical and necessary information thatwill allow it to develop or improve its strategic plan.

External EnvironmentalScanning and Strategic Planning

While the term strategic planning is wellknown, the literature on this topic, especially in non-profit organizations, is neither extensive nor welldeveloped. Rowley (1997) stated that in regard tostrategic planning in higher education, GeorgeKeller’s 1983 book, Academic Strategy, was amongthe first to identify the need for strategic planning incolleges and universities, although he did not pro-vide a schema for conducting it. Watkins (1999)stated that Keller maintained that a responsive insti-tution must:1. pay attention to the world outside its campus and

collect better data on trends;2. think more competitively about its strategic ad-

vantage as an educational institution and deter-mine why students should invest their future there;

3. focus on the whole institution through collectivethinking;

4. plan from the top down and keep a balanced per-spective on the need for appropriate faculty andstaff participation and advisory input;

5. legitimize the planning process by linking it withmeaningful budget adjustments;

6. practice entrepreneurial/risk-taking tendencies;7. convert the planning process into strategic deci-

sion making; and8. be mindful of the future by thinking of a number

of years ahead.

These points emphasize several importantthemes in strategic planning, especially the impor-tance of researching the external environment, de-veloping a strategic plan from the outside in, involv-ing stakeholders in developing a plan, and linkingthe strategic plan to budget development and strate-gic decision making.

Definition of Strategic Planningand Differentiation from otherTypes of Planning

Norris and Poulton (1991) provided a clear,current and accepted definition of strategic planningas a systematic and on-going activity which an orga-nization uses to anticipate and respond to major de-cisions facing it during a three- to five-year periodbeyond the present. Strategic planning is:• externally directed;• focuses on “what” the organization should do;• deals with “macro” issues;• spans organizational boundaries;• is a continuing process dictated by changes in the

external environment that occur on an irregulartimeframe;

• deals with relatively greater levels of uncertainty;and

• values expert judgment.

The most common approach to strategic plan-ning (Glaister & Falshaw, 1999) incorporates an ex-ternal environmental analysis to identify the oppor-tunities and threats facing the organization, and aninternal analysis to identify the organization’sstrengths and weaknesses. Cope (1987) offered the

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Figure 1: Case Study - Virginia Western Community College

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following definition of strategic planning as it ap-plies to higher education:

Strategic planning is an open systems approach tosteering an enterprise over time through uncertainenvironmental waters. It is a pro-active problemsolving behavior directed at conditions in the en-vironment and a means to find a favorable com-petitive position in the continual competition forresources. Its primary purpose is to achieve suc-cess with mission while linking the institution’sfuture to anticipated changes in the environmentin such a way that the acquisition of resources(money, personnel, staff, students, good will, etc.)is faster than the depletion of resources (p. 3).

Rowley, Lujan and Dolence (1997) stated thecentral tenet of strategic planning is to align the or-ganization with its environment. Strategic planningdiffers from other types of planning. As describedby Cope (1987), strategic planning concentrates onthe external environment, is oriented towards change,is proactive, emphasizes doing the right thing, val-ues opinions, intuition, and the qualitative, and con-siders planning to be an “outside-in approach.” Otherplanning concentrates on the enterprise/organization,emphasizes stability, is reactive, emphasizes doingthings right, values facts and the quantitative, andconsiders planning to be an “inside-out” approach.

Rodeheaver (1998) summarized the conceptualdifferences by stating that strategic planning answersthe question: What should we do? And operationaland long-range planning answers the question: Howand when do we do it? More specifically, long-rangeactivities are continuous attempts to translate the stra-tegic plan into action within the organization. Op-erational planning involves resource allocation withinunits of the organization and is often determined bybudget cycles.

A strategic plan consists of at least three com-ponents. The first is a vision, defined as an ideal,credible, attractive, and future image for an organi-zation; second, a mission, defined as a general state-ment of the fundamental purpose of an organizationand the foundation for developing the organization’sgoals and objectives; and third, goals, defined asbroad statements that describes ultimate ends andachievements for an organization. Examples of stra-tegic plans are found in the following case studies.

Applying ExternalEnvironmental Scanning andForecasting to Developing aStrategic Plan: Two Case Studies

Virginia Western Community CollegeVirginia Western Community College (VWCC)

located in Roanoke, Virginia, serves a metropolitanarea of approximately 250,000 people in southwest-ern Virginia. In early 2001, VWCC embarked on anexternal environmental scanning and forecasting ac-tivity that would serve as the foundation for subse-quent strategic planning. After a series of workshopson the topic, college faculty, staff, and administra-tors decided to concentrate external environmentalscanning in the change areas of demographics,economy, labor force, politics and social values, andlifestyles. In the summer of that year, four scan teamsdeveloped 25 external trends across these taxonomyareas. Each trend was accompanied by a rationaleand supporting documentation for its existence. Resi-dents of the Roanoke area were asked to considerthe trends and offer implications for the RoanokeValley in the next three to five years. These implica-tions were captured and shared with college plan-ners who in turn used them to suggest possible im-plications for the college as well. In December, a stra-tegic planning workshop was held. College plannersconsidered all trends and on the basis of the qualityand quantity of implications, selected six core exter-nal environmental trends to guide strategic planning.During the December workshop, the college con-ducted a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities andThreats (SWOT) assessment. A SWOT assessmentis important to conduct and is particularly useful indeveloping a mission statement and set of strategicgoals that are reasonable and achievable in light ofthe core SWOT factors selected. The six core exter-nal environmental trends and the results of the SWOTassessment are shown in Figure 1.

In the strategic planning workshop four teamsof college planners developed and submitted theirindividual versions of a strategic plan (four versionsof a vision and mission statement and four sets ofstrategic goals) based upon the core trends and core

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SWOT assessment. Each team selected a represen-tative who would join with other representatives toconstitute an editorial committee to recommend astrategic plan. For practical purposes such as coor-dinating meeting times and quickly recommendinga final version of the strategic plan, the editorial teamwas limited to only four members, each represent-ing their respective workshop team. As Figure 1 il-lustrates, the final strategic plan included vision andmission statements and nine strategic goals (Lapin,2001). A number of the strategic goals responded toone or more core external environmental trends. Forexample, core trends identified future occupationalgrowth in the fields of health care and informationtechnology in the Roanoke Valley. Strategic Goal 6was a response to this core trend. Another core trendindicated that government funding would not in-crease in the near future. Strategic Goal 7 was a re-sponse to this core trend.

Great Basin CollegeThe process of external environmental scanning

and its use in developing a strategic plan is not lim-ited to colleges. Indeed, the process and the result-ing strategic plan can be used in virtually any orga-nization or locale requiring a strategic plan. Such anapplication is illustrated in the case of Great BasinCollege (GBC) and the county it serves, Elko County,Nevada.

Located in northeastern Nevada, borderingUtah on the east and Idaho on the north, Elko Countyis a vast 17,179 square miles in area with a rural popu-lation totaling only 45,291, according to the 2000Census. Outside of three or four small towns it is asparsely populated county with a rich history of min-ing and ranching. The county is served by one pub-licly funded institution of postsecondary education,Great Basin College. It is a comprehensive commu-nity college offering programs and services through-out Elko County.

In 1999, Team Elko, a group of Elko Countyresidents who cared about the future of Elko County,asked Great Basin College to develop a strategic planfor Elko County. The first step was to hold a seriesof three workshops for the college faculty, staff, andadministrators, and friends and supporters of the col-lege. Workshop One provided an introduction to ex-

ternal environmental scanning and forecasting andits use in a strategic plan. Workshop Two involved asimulated scan team exercise, and Workshop Threecentered around organizing and operating an exter-nal environmental scanning and forecasting activityfor Great Basin College. College staff developed alist of scanning areas that was customized to reflectenvironmental conditions for both the college andthe surrounding county. This list included demo-graphics, labor force, technology, health care, socialvalues and lifestyles, agriculture, politics, econom-ics, education, gaming, and mining and land usage.In northeastern Nevada, health care was a signifi-cant area of expected change because of accessibil-ity problems common to residents of rural Nevadaand a concern for the poor health status of manyNevada residents, while gaming and agriculture rep-resented major industries. Mining and land usagerecognized the important role that gold and silvermining continues to play in the local economy, aswell as the controversial issue of land usage policiesand practices associated with federal, state, and lo-cal interests. After extensive external environmentalscanning, a total of 37 individual trend statementscovering these change areas were developed. Eachtrend statement was followed by a summary ratio-nale which included citations of sources and researchthat served as the bases for each respective trend. InSeptember, 2000, Elko County leaders came to thecollege and in small groups reviewed all 37 trendstatements and identified what they believed wouldbe potential implications of each respective trend tothe future of Elko County in the next three to fiveyears. College officials captured their responses andadded these implications to the list of trends. Fol-lowing this exercise, GBC scanners and plannerswere asked to identify what the implications of thetrends for the county meant for the college’s pro-grams, services, funding, technology, and advance-ment. In this way, implications offered by the col-lege representatives logically followed from thoseoffered by the community leaders. This informationwas included in an updated list of 37 trends that notonly had appropriate rationale behind their develop-ment, but included two sets of implications: one setoffered by representatives from the community; anda second set of implications offered by GBC repre-sentatives.

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Figure 2: Case Study - Elko County-Great Basin College

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In December, 2000, a strategic planning work-shop was held involving members of Team Elko andrepresentatives from the college. Participants re-viewed the implications associated with each trendand reached consensus on seven core external envi-ronmental trends to build a strategic plan. A subse-quent SWOT analysis also informed the strategic plan(Figure 2).

During the workshop, four teams of college andcommunity planners developed and submitted theirrespective strategic plans (four versions of a visionand mission statement and four sets of strategic goals)based on the core trends and core SWOT assessment.Each team selected a representative and the four rep-resentatives constituted an editorial team which rec-ommended a final strategic plan (Figure 2). A num-ber of the strategic goals responded to one or morecore external environmental trends. For example,core trends identified the importance of economicdiversification and the uncertain price of gold andgold mining in northeast Nevada. Strategic Goal 1was a response to these core trends. Another coretrend indicated employment growth in health servicesin Nevada through 2006. Strategic Goal 3 reflectedsupport for Great Basic College’s ability to providepostsecondary education in health service programs(Lapin, 2000).

Benefits of the Strategic PlanningProcess

Rigorous and formal evaluation of this ap-proach to strategic planning is not presently avail-able. However, informal evaluation based on con-versations with college leaders and participants andwritten feedback from surveys indicates the follow-ing primary benefits of this approach:• Because the process is highly participatory it at-

tracts more support and legitimacy from all areasof the organization.

• Leaders and participants are satisfied that exter-nal environmental scanning and forecasting en-abled them to develop a better strategic plan andprovided them with a “road map” for future stra-tegic planning.

• Leaders and participants believe the strategic planwill improve the basis for decision making.

• Colleges benefit themselves and the communitiesthey serve by concentrating their planning fromthe “outside-in” rather than the “inside-out.”

• Colleges involve their communities in their plan-ning process and provide valuable information,in the form of trends, to others in the communityinterested in planning.

• Colleges become more active partners in largercommunity and economic development efforts.

• Colleges are better able to develop and implementoperational plans that reflect and carry out theirstrategic plan.

• Colleges generally receive recognition and praisefor their planning process and their strategic planfrom accrediting agencies.

SummaryA review of appropriate planning research,

coupled with years of practice, reinforced the im-portance of developing a strategic plan that researcheschanges in the external environment and identifiedthe implications of changes for an institution’s fu-ture in the period three to five years beyond thepresent. Community colleges focused on anticipat-ing and responding to the communities they serverecognized the need for organizational change andtook steps to implement appropriate change. The firststep in successful organizational change was exter-nal environmental scanning and forecasting whichproduced a set of key external trends that provided abasis for solid directions and results in both strategicplanning and institutional effectiveness. Colleges,such as those cited in this paper, which implementan external environmental scanning and forecastingactivity and link it to developing an outside-in stra-tegic plan, can assume a leadership role to build bet-ter communities and colleges for tomorrow.

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Cope, R.G. (1987). Opportunity from strength: Strategic plan-ning clarified with case examples. [Highere EducationReport # 8].Washington, D.C. ASHE-ERIC Clearinghouseon Higher Education. (ED296694)

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Glaister, K.W. & Falshaw, J.R. (1999) Strategic planning: stillgoing strong? Long Range Planning, 32(1), 107-116.

Lapin, J.D. (2000). Team Elko, Elko County strategic plan. [In-ternal report]. Elko, NV: Great Basin College.

Lapin, J.D. (2001). Virginia Western Community College stra-tegic plan. [Internal report] Roanoke, VA: Virginia West-ern Community College.

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Rowley, D.J., Lujan, H.D., & Dolence, M.G. (1997). Strategicchange in colleges and universities. San Francisco:Jossey-Bass.

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Joel D. Lapin is a professor of sociology at The Com-munity College of Baltimore County (Maryland),Catonsville Campus, and Vice President and leadconsultant in external environmental scanning andforecasting for The Clements Group which special-izes in advancement and fundraising for communitycolleges.