Using Fed Speeches to Follow the Economy

An Analysis of NY Fed President William Dudley’s July 31 Speech

McCombs Alumni NetworkSandy Leeds

August 26, 2016

Agenda

• How This Presentation Originated • What it is and what it isn’t

• Two Things the Fed Never Says…

• President Dudley’s Outlook for the Economy

• Implications of the Outlook for U.S. Monetary Policy

• It’s a Two-Way Street

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NOTE: these slides were not part of President Dudley’s speech. The slides are my attempt to add pictures to his thoughts.

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JUNE 2015 PROJECTIONS

JUNE 2016 PROJECTIONS

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JUNE 2015 PROJECTIONS

JUNE 2016 PROJECTIONS

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JUNE 2015 PROJECTIONS

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JUNE 2016 PROJECTIONS

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S&P 500 and Emerging Market

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S&P 500 and Oil (WTIC)

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