UTAH INFORMED · 2019-01-17 · In this, the second edition of Utah Informed, we share his optimism. The tables, charts, ideas, and schematics shared in this book present a microcosm

I n P a r t n e r s h i p w i t h t h e S a l t L a k e C h a m b e r

UTAH INFORMEDV I S U A L I N T E L L E C T I O N F O R 2 0 1 7

At the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, we develop and share economic, demographic and public policy data and research that

help individuals and the community make informed decisions.

New York Times columnist and Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman says if you want to be optimistic about the future, stand on your head and see the world from the bottom up. Your perspective will start with communities, extend to states, and progress to the nation

and the world. The closer you are to the bottom of this progression, the more positive will be your outlook. He says the entrepreneurship and innovation happening at the community level propels his bright outlook.

In this, the second edition of Utah Informed, we share his optimism. The tables, charts, ideas, and schematics shared in this book present a microcosm of the many challenges and opportunities we face. The great reason for optimism is that Utah community leaders rely on sound data to make decisions. Pair this data-driven orientation with the extraordinary innovation and entrepreneurship that occurs in Utah, and you have a winning combination.

Philanthropist Kem C. Gardner and other community leaders have endowed the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the David Eccles School of Business. Their vision is for the Institute to be the place where Utah comes together

to clarify facts, discuss ideas, prevent and solve problems, and, ultimately, thrive. The partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber helps us fulfill this mission.

In this booklet, we present what we call “visual intellection.” Each page forces the viewer to consider a compelling trend, a new idea, or an aspirational thought. The information may help you connect a few dots. It may also leave you wanting, not knowing exactly what to think. That is intentional. We want this booklet to make you think.

We hope this 2017 edition of Utah Informed will help you make informed decisions in 2017.

Natalie GochnourDirector, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Taylor RandallDean, David Eccles School of Business

Lane BeattiePresident & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute | 1

2 | Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

ContentsGlobal and National Context2016 Discoveries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Words and phrases to know in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Duration of US economic expansions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Odds of US recession in next 12 months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Consumer Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Partisan Conflict Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Hollow Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Effective federal funds rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Share of world manufacturing output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Core inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Federal budget deficits and surpluses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Net interest overlays vs. federal debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15US International trade balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16US economic competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Production and jobs in manufacturing sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Nonfarm productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19News use across social media platforms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

PeopleUtah population growth, 2015 - 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Utah population age 5 to 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Depedency ratios in Utah and the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Selected age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population . . . . . 25Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268-year olds identifi ed with Autism Spectrum Disorder . . . . . . . . . 27Primary languages spoken at home in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Minorities’ share of Utah population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Utah population pyramid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31Percent of population without health insurance in 2015 . . . . . . . 32Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Percent of population with income below poverty level, 2015 . . . . 34

JobsEmployment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015 . . . . 36Employment as a percent of 2007 peak . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Utah employment by industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Job index for Utah private and public sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Education4-year graduation rates by school district, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Retention of new Utah teachers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or professional degree . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Educational attainment for persons 25 Years and over, 2015 . . . . 44Average undergraduate tuition and fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women . . . . 46Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Income and Debt Share of households in the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Gini Index of Income Equality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Utah real private average hourly earnings index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Utah components of Personal Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles Galaxy pay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Utah per capita debt by loan type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Edited by Juliette Tennert

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute | 3

Sales and PricesRegional Price Parities, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Average retail price of electricity to residential sector. . . . . . . . . . 56Composition of Utah retail sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Millenial expenditure growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Real Estate and ConstructionGrowth in housing units and households in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Real Change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980 - 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 62Utah residential construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63Value of permit-authorized construction in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Index of for-sale inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Median existing home prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Travel and TourismDirect Utah traveler spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Utah tourism-generated jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68International visitor Visa card . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Utah national park and place visitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

ResourcesHighest internet connection speeds in the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015 . . . . . . 73States’ share of total US energy production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Energy consumption per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Salt Lake City temperature records. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Share of Utah land area in drought conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

FiscalStates with triple-triple rating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78State of Utah sales and use tax collections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79State of Utah budget reserve accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80Budget of the State of Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

International TradeUtah merchandise exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Top ten Utah export industries: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84The age of acceleration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership . . . . . . . 86

Economic Strength and DiversityCounty shares defense contracts and grants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87Utah Defense Sector total economic impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88Hachman Index of GDP diversity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Delta Air Lines US and Canada routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90Union Pacific Rail Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91US and Utah GDP by industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Shedding LightLeadership truisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94Human adaptability and technological acceleration . . . . . . . . . . . 95Informed decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

2016 discoveries

Gene-Editing Technique Used on Human PatientA lung cancer patient became the first human subject

of the CRISPR gene-editing technique, with the goal of strengthening his cells against the cancer.

Gravitational Waves Detected100 years after Albert Einstein unveiled his theory of

General Relativity, the first direct evidence of gravitational waves was detected.

Casper the friendly octopusAn octopus found near Hawaii, nicknamed “Casper”

for its pale, translucent appearance, is a newly discovered species.

NASA Spacecraft Reaches JupiterAfter five years, NASA’s Juno spacecraft finally reached

Jupiter, and is now orbiting the planet.

Dinosaurs Tail with Feathers DiscoveredA 99 million-year-old dinosaur tail was found in amber,

with its bones, tissue, and feathers intact.

Another Planet in Our Solar System FoundA group of astronomers found new evidence that

there is a distant planet within our solar system.

Small Asteroid Orbiting Earth and the SunA new companion to our planet, a small asteroid

which appears to be orbiting the earth as well, has been found orbiting the sun.

Eyeless Cavefish Walks Up Cave WallsA blind cavefish has been found using its pelvis to

scale cave walls, providing a modern look at evolutionary steps.

SpaceX Successfully Lands RocketPrivate company SpaceX successfully landed its

Falcon 9 rocket with the help of a drone ship.

Greenland Shark Declared Oldest Living Vertebrate Through radiocarbon dating, scientists estimate a

female Greenland shark to be around 400 years old.

4 | Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 5

350 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The number of persons in Utah at least 100 years old. The number of centenarians in Utah is projected to grow to 6,800 by 2065!

Alt-right . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A self-proclaimed tribe that unifies against multiculturalism, immigration, feminism and, above all, political correctness.

A.I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Artificial intelligence is all the rage. Prominent thinker Stephen Hawking reminds us that it will be, “either the best, or worst thing, ever to happen to humanity.”

Beehive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .What used to be thought of as Utah’s state symbol and a home for bees is now the symbol of Utah’s changing age structure.

Bregret. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The regret felt by those who voted to leave the EU, and now wish they had not done so.

Drain the Swamp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A call to action to fix dysfunction in Washington, D.C.

Entrepreneurial federalism . . . . . . . .States competing with public money to lure business. Critics call it an arms race, picking winners, or corporate welfare. Supporters call it the new normal.

Our Schools Now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A ballot initiative to invest $750 million into Utah’s education system.

Post-truth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A political culture that appeals to emotion instead of fact. Last year, Oxford Dictionaries selected “post-truth” international word of the year.

Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The ability to fall down nine times and get up ten.

Solopreneur . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .A person developing their own personal brand, a niche for themselves in their own marketplace.

STEMpathy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .STEM jobs are all the rage, but those with STEM skills who can relate to others and show empathy will thrive.

TEOTWAWKI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The End Of The World As We know It

The new Utah County . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Economic and political power shifts south. It’s not your grandfather’s county anymore.

The new Point of the Mountain . . . .One chance to get it right!

TrumpCare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The coming evolution of the U.S. health system.

Words and phrases to know in 2017

Current US economic expansion among the longest, slowest on record

92 months as of Jan. 2017 (2.1%)

73 months (2.8%)

120 months (3.6%)

92 months (4.4%)

12 months (4.4%)

58 months (4.5%)

36 months (5.1%)

106 months (4.9%)

24 months (5.6%)

39 months (4.0%)

45 months (6.9%)

37 months

80 months

50 months

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

June 2009 November 2001

March 1991 November 1982

July 1980 March 1975

November 1970 February 1961

April 1958 May 1954

October 1949 October 1945

June 1938 March 1933

Months

Star

t Dat

e Current US economic expansion among

the longest, slowest on record

Duration of U.S. economic expansions

Note: Average annual GDP growth in parentheses; data unavailable prior to 1949.

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Research and Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Duration of US economic expansions

6 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Worries about a US recession fell during the last half of 2016

16.9%

21.3% 19.8%

19.0% 19.6% 20.7%

21.9% 21.0%

20.3% 20.2%

18.5%

16.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


Odds of US recession in next 12 months

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

16.9%

21.3% 19.8%

19.0% 19.6% 20.7%

21.9% 21.0%

20.3% 20.2%

18.5%

16.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%






US consumer confidence reaches a 10-year high at end of 2016

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

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Feb-

11

Jul-1

1 D

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Dec

-16

US consumer con dence reaches a 10-year high at end of 2016

Consumer Con dence Index Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

Source: The Conference Board

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

10

Feb-

11

Jul-1

1 D

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1 M

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2 O

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3 A

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3 Ja

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Fe

b-16

Ju

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Dec

-16

US consumer con dence reaches a 10-year high at end of 2016

Consumer Con dence Index Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

Source: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence IndexSeasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100



Will partisan conflict increase uncertainty in 2017?

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

10

Feb-

11

Jul-1

1 D

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1 M

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Will partisan con ict increase uncertainty in 2017?

Partisan Con ict Index 1990 average = 100

Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Nov

-09

Apr

-10

Sep-

10

Feb-

11

Jul-1

1 D

ec-1

1 M

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2 O

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2 M

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3 A

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3 Ja

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Ju

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4 A

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5 Se

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Fe

b-16

Ju

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Will partisan con ict increase uncertainty in 2017?

Partisan Con ict Index 1990 average = 100

Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Partisan Conflict Index1990 average = 100

What do hollow trees have to do with the 2016 election?

Source: Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2016

“You don’t know a tree is hollow until you push hard against it and it falls. The

establishments of both parties did not know, a year ago, that they were hollow trees.

They thought themselves strong because they always had been, and people think what

has been true will continue. Then suddenly the tree is pushed and falls. To me that is

the symbol, the image of 2016: the hollowed trees and how easily they fell.”

– Peggy Noonan


Fed funds rate back to 2008 level by end of 2018?

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

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11

Dec

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12

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-12

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-13

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14

Dec

-14

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15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Actual

Projected


E ective Federal Funds Rate Actual and Projected


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jun-

06

Dec

-06

Jun-

07

Dec

-07

Jun-

08

Dec

-08

Jun-

09

Dec

-09

Jun-

10

Dec

-10

Jun-

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Dec

-11

Jun-

12

Dec

-12

Jun-

13

Dec

-13

Jun-

14

Dec

-14

Jun-

15

Dec

-15

Jun-

16

Dec

-16

Jun-

17

Dec

-17

Jun-

18

Dec

-18

Actual

Projected


E ective Federal Funds Rate Actual and Projected


Effective federal funds rateActual and projected


China now produces a quarter of the world’s manufacturing output

2.7% 3.4%

8.2%

4.4%

12.5%

3.3%

23.5%

2.9%

8.8%

1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 2.4%

6.4%

2.5%

9.1%

1.9%

17.5%

1.9%

25.0%

3.2% 1.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0% 2000

2016


Share of world manufacturing output 2000 vs. 2016

Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

2.7% 3.4%

8.2%

4.4%

12.5%

3.3%

23.5%

2.9%

8.8%

1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 2.4%

6.4%

2.5%

9.1%

1.9%

17.5%

1.9%

25.0%

3.2% 1.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0% 2000

2016


Share of world manufacturing output 2000 vs. 2016


Share of world manufacturing output2000 vs. 2016


Precariously low inflation rates

1.8%

0.6%

1.2%

0.3%

0.1%

1.5%

2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S.

Core In ation

Target

Precariously low in ation rates

Core In ation Q3 2016


1.8%

0.6%

1.2%

0.3%

0.1%

1.5%

2.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S.

Core In ation

Target

Precariously low in ation rates

Core In ation Q3 2016


Core InflationQ3 2016


Budget deficit expected to grow over the next decade

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

1995

19

96

1997

19

98

1999

20

00

2001

20

02

2003

20

04

2005

20

06

2007

20

08

2009

20

10

2011

20

12

2013

20

14

2015

20

16

2017

20

18

2019

20

20

2021

20

22

2023

20

24

2025

20

26

Actual

Projected

Budget de cits expected to grow over the next decade

Federal budget de cits (-) and surpluses Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Source: Congressional Budget O ce August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook

Federal budget deficits and surplusesPercent of Gross Domestic Product

Source: Congressional Budget Office, August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook


Higher Interest rates will boost the share of resources required to service the federal debt

Source: U.S. Departments of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

4.0%-

3.5%-

3.0%-

2.5%-

2.0%-

1.5%-

1.0%-

0.5%-

0.0%-

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

-0%I

80I

82I

84I

86I

88I

90I

92I

94I

96I

98I

00I

02I

04I

06I

08I

10I

12I

14I

16

Net interest as a share of GDP: Sept @ 1.3% (Left Axis) Public debt as a share of GDP: Sept @75.7% (RIght Axis)

Net interest overlays vs. federal debt12-Month moving sum, total debt held by the public


What does the future hold for US trade balance?

($80.0)

($70.0)

($60.0)

($50.0)

($40.0)

($30.0)

($20.0)

($10.0)

$0.0

Oct

-200

6 M

ar-2

007

Aug

-200

7 Ja

n-20

08

Jun-

2008

N

ov-2

008

Apr

-200

9 Se

p-20

09

Feb-

2010

Ju

l-201

0 D

ec-2

010

May

-201

1 O

ct-2

011

Mar

-201

2 A

ug-2

012

Jan-

2013

Ju

n-20

13

Nov

-201

3 A

pr-2

014

Sep-

2014

Fe

b-20

15

Jul-2

015

Dec

-201

5 M

ay-2

016

Oct

-201

6


US international trade balance Billions, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products

($80.0)

($70.0)

($60.0)

($50.0)

($40.0)

($30.0)

($20.0)

($10.0)

$0.0

Oct

-200

6 M

ar-2

007

Aug

-200

7 Ja

n-20

08

Jun-

2008

N

ov-2

008

Apr

-200

9 Se

p-20

09

Feb-

2010

Ju

l-201

0 D

ec-2

010

May

-201

1 O

ct-2

011

Mar

-201

2 A

ug-2

012

Jan-

2013

Ju

n-20

13

Nov

-201

3 A

pr-2

014

Sep-

2014

Fe

b-20

15

Jul-2

015

Dec

-201

5 M

ay-2

016

Oct

-201

6


US international trade balance Billions, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products

US International trade balanceBillions, seasonally adjusted


Source: Harvard Business School Survey on U.S. Competitiveness and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

US economic competitiveness

= Activities largely controlled by public sector

= Activities largely controlled by private sector

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Current U.S. Position Compared to Other Advanced Economies

U.S

. Tra

ject

ory

Com

pare

d to

Oth

er A

dvan

ced

Econ

omie

s

(Weakness but improving)

(Weakness and Deteriorating)

(Strength and Improving)

(Strength but Deteriorating)

K-12 Education System

Political System

Health Care

Tax Code

Regulation

Legal Framework

Hiring and Firing

Logistics Infrastructure

Innovation

Capital Markets

Property Rights

Clusters

Communications Infrastructure

Firm Management

Entrepreneurship

Universities

Macro Policy

Skilled Labor


Doing more with less

Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce & Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

240-

200-

160-

120-

80-

40-

0-

-240

-200

-160

-120

-80

-40

-0I

79I

84I

89I

94I

99I

04I

09I

14

Manufacturing production: November @ 202.6 Manufacturing employment: November @ 63.2

Production & jobs in manufacturing sectorIndex, Jan 1979 = 100


Sluggish productivity growth limits economic potential

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

-0%

- -1%60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 86 00 04 08 12 16

nLabor productivity: Q3 @ 0.4%

Nonfarm productivityTwo-year moving average, year-over-year percent change5%-

4%-

3%-

2%-

1%-

0%-

-1%-


Six in 10 Americans got news from social media in 2016

Never 38.0%

Often 18.0%

Sometimes 26.0%

Hardly Ever 18.0%

Social media increasingly used for news; one in six Americans got news from site in 2016

News use across social media platforms

How often US adults get news on a social networking site, 2016

Source: Pew Research Center

30%

10% 8%

44%

10% 9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Facebook YouTube Twitter

2013 2016

Portion of US adults who get news on popular social networking sites

Never 38.0%

Often 18.0%

Sometimes 26.0%

Hardly Ever 18.0%

Social media increasingly used for news; one in six Americans got news from site in 2016


How often US adults get news on a social networking site, 2016

Source: Pew Research Center

30%

10% 8%

44%

10% 9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Facebook YouTube Twitter

2013 2016

Portion of US adults who get news on popular social networking sites



Utah County leads in population growth

TOOELE2,023

SAN JUAN400

MILLARD187

KANE310

JUAB470

EMERY-85

BOX ELDER1,067

IRON1,336

UINTAH-815

GARFIELD26

GRAND176

WAYNE-6

BEAVER72

UTAH17,668

DUCHESNE-213

SEVIER279

RICH8

SUMMIT772

SANPETE401

WASHINGTON5,757

CARBON24

CACHE2,052

PIUTE-27

WASATCH1,382

DAVIS6,555

WEBER2,935

SALT LAKE14,223

DAGGETT-10

MORGAN442

net decline

0 - 2,500

2,501 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

> 10,000

Over 30 percent of Utah’s population growth in Utah county in 2016

Utah population growth, 2015 - 2016

Note: 57,401 growth statewide.

Source: Utah Population Committee

TOOELE2,023

SAN JUAN400

MILLARD187

KANE310

JUAB470

EMERY-85

BOX ELDER1,067

IRON1,336

UINTAH-815

GARFIELD26

GRAND176

WAYNE-6

BEAVER72

UTAH17,668

DUCHESNE-213

SEVIER279

RICH8

SUMMIT772

SANPETE401

WASHINGTON5,757

CARBON24

CACHE2,052

PIUTE-27

WASATCH1,382

DAVIS6,555

WEBER2,935

SALT LAKE14,223

DAGGETT-10

MORGAN442

net decline

0 - 2,500

2,501 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

> 10,000

Over 30 percent of Utah’s population growth in Utah county in 2016

Utah population growth, 2015 - 2016

Note: 57,401 growth statewide.

Source: Utah Population Committee

Utah population growth, 2015-2016

Note: Utah's population grew 57,401 people to 3,054,806 Utahns in 2016.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 21

Growth in Utah’s school-age population expected to slow over the next decade

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

School age population (5-17) Annual growth


Utah population age 5 to 17

Note: Data prior to 2016 are estimates; data for 2016 and beyond are projections.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute


-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

School age population (5-17) Annual growth



Note: Data prior to 2016 are estimates; data for 2016 and beyond are projections.


3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

22 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017


Aging baby boomers driving projected dependency ratio increase

76.0

61.3 66

.546

.5

66.4

41.3 54

.341

.5 53.0

38.2 50

.536

.3 45.6

36.5 44

.535

.6 44.6

34.7 43

.434

.8

13.9

17.7 13

.518

.6

15.8

20.3

14.4

20.1

15.2

20.7

20.1

27.7 24

.935

.5 28.0

37.5 34

.038

.2 37.6

41.5

89.9

79.0 80.0

65.1

82.3

61.668.6

61.6

68.2

58.9

70.6

64.070.5 71.9 72.5 73.1

79.072.9

81.076.4

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Youth Retirees


Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States

Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older. 2020 – 2060 are projections.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

76.0

61.3 66

.546

.5

66.4

41.3 54

.341

.5 53.0

38.2 50

.536

.3 45.6

36.5 44

.535

.6 44.6

34.7 43

.434

.8

13.9

17.7 13

.518

.6

15.8

20.3

14.4

20.1

15.2

20.7

20.1

27.7 24

.935

.5 28.0

37.5 34

.038

.2 37.6

41.5

89.9

79.0 80.0

65.1

82.3

61.668.6

61.6

68.2

58.9

70.6

64.070.5 71.9 72.5 73.1

79.072.9

81.076.4

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.

Uta

hU

.S.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Youth Retirees


Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States

Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older. 2020 – 2060 are projections.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Depedency ratios in Utah and the United States

Are too many 18 to 34 year olds living with their parents?

4.2% 8.6%

22.2%

36.2%

68.0%

61.8%

6.0%

3.9%1.0%

28.6%

5.0%11.2%

11.2% 12.9%13.8%3.3% 1.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

18 to 34 35 to 64 65+

Other Nonrelatives

Other Relatives

Child of Householder

Unmarried Partner

Married Couple

Lives alone

Nearly three of every ten Utah young adults live with parents

Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

4.2% 8.6%

22.2%

36.2%

68.0%

61.8%

6.0%

3.9%1.0%

28.6%

5.0%11.2%

11.2% 12.9%13.8%3.3% 1.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

18 to 34 35 to 64 65+

Other Nonrelatives

Other Relatives

Child of Householder

Unmarried Partner

Married Couple

Lives alone

Nearly three of every ten Utah young adults live with parents


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates



The graying of Utah

37.0% 36.5% 32.2% 31.5% 29.6% 26.8% 25.8% 25.0% 24.0%

31.3% 27.6%28.9% 27.6%

24.5%23.8% 22.5% 21.1% 21.1%

24.8%27.8% 30.4% 31.8%

34.1%34.8% 35.5% 34.9% 34.2%

6.9% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% 11.8% 14.6% 16.2% 19.0% 20.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Children (0-17) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35-64) Retirees (65+)

Growing old together - Utah’s 35+ share increasing while 35 and under share declining

Selected age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

37.0% 36.5% 32.2% 31.5% 29.6% 26.8% 25.8% 25.0% 24.0%

31.3% 27.6%28.9% 27.6%

24.5%23.8% 22.5% 21.1% 21.1%

24.8%27.8% 30.4% 31.8%

34.1%34.8% 35.5% 34.9% 34.2%

6.9% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% 11.8% 14.6% 16.2% 19.0% 20.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Children (0-17) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35-64) Retirees (65+)

Growing old together - Utah’s 35+ share increasing while 35 and under share declining


Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute



Utah's fertility rate is at a historic low

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

UtahU.S.Replacement Level

Will Utah’s fertility remain above replacement level?

Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States

Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

UtahU.S.Replacement Level

Will Utah’s fertility remain above replacement level?


Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics



Utah has more autism diagnoses than the national averageUtah has more autism diagnoses

than the national average

8-year olds identi�ed with Autism Spectrum Disorder1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States

Notes: Data are from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The national average is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012.

Source: Centers for Disease Control 2016 Community Report on Autism

Utah has more autism diagnoses than the national average

8-year olds identi�ed with Autism Spectrum Disorder1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States

Notes: Data are from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The national average is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012.

Source: Centers for Disease Control 2016 Community Report on Autism

8-year olds identified with Autism Spectrum Disorder1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States


Multilingual Utah

Multilingual Utah

Primary languages spoken at home in Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Primary languages spoken at home in Utah

4.9%

3.9% 91.2%

Minorities’ share of Utah population up almost threefold since 1980

Minorities’ share of Utah population

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

▪ Hispanic or Latino ▪ Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino) ▫White, Not Hispanic or Latino

9.0%

3.7%87.3%

13.0%

6.7%

80.3%

13.7%

7.3%

79.0%

1990 2000

20152010


Note: Utahns speak 141 primary languages at home.

Minorities' share of Utah population more than doubles in 25 years

4.9%

3.9% 91.2%





9.0%

3.7%87.3%

13.0%

6.7%

80.3%

13.7%

7.3%

79.0%

1990 2000

201520104.9%

3.9% 91.2%





9.0%

3.7%87.3%

13.0%

6.7%

80.3%

13.7%

7.3%

79.0%

1990 2000

20152010




The beehive—Utah’s changing age structureThe beehive

Utah population pyramid1960, 2015, and 2065

Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Male - 2015 Female - 2015Male - 1960 Female - 1960

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,00005

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+Male - 2065 Projection Female - 2065 Projection

The beehive

Utah population pyramid1960, 2015, and 2065

Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Male - 2015 Female - 2015Male - 1960 Female - 1960

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,00005

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100+Male - 2065 Projection Female - 2065 Projection

Utah population pyramid1960, 2015 and 2065


Most of Utah’s migrants come from the West

TX4,859

CA15,087

AZ7,127

NV5,269

CO4,808

WY2,452

OR2,988

ID7,138

WA4,271

VA2,321

from the West

Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah

Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS)

TX4,859

CA15,087

AZ7,127

NV5,269

CO4,808

WY2,452

OR2,988

ID7,138

WA4,271

VA2,321

from the West

Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah

Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS)

Top 10 sources of migration to Utah


Nine states have a higher uninsured rate than Utah; thirty have lower rate

TX17.1%

CA8.6%

MT11.6%

CO8.1%

NM10.9%

OR7.0%

AZ10.8%

NV12.3%

MN4.5%

KS9.1%

WY11.5%

NE8.2%

ND7.8%

MO9.8%

UT10.5%

WA6.6%

ID11.0% SD

10.2%

IL7.1%

IA5.0%

OK13.9%

WI5.7%

AR9.5%

NY7.1%

GA13.9%

PA6.4%

AL10.1%

OH6.5%IN

9.6%

FL13.3%

MI6.1%

KY6.0%

VA9.1%NC

11.2%

MS12.7%

LA11.9%

TN10.3%

ME8.4%

SC10.9%

WV6.0%

VT3.8%

NH6.3%

MA2.8%

CT6.0%

NJ8.7%MD

6.6%

RI5.7%

AK14.9%

HI4.0%


*Di�erence is statistically di�erent from zero with 90 percent con�dence.Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates

Rate lower than Utah*Rate not statistically di�erent than UtahRate higher than Utah*

TX17.1%

CA8.6%

MT11.6%

CO8.1%

NM10.9%

OR7.0%

AZ10.8%

NV12.3%

MN4.5%

KS9.1%

WY11.5%

NE8.2%

ND7.8%

MO9.8%

UT10.5%

WA6.6%

ID11.0% SD

10.2%

IL7.1%

IA5.0%

OK13.9%

WI5.7%

AR9.5%

NY7.1%

GA13.9%

PA6.4%

AL10.1%

OH6.5%IN

9.6%

FL13.3%

MI6.1%

KY6.0%

VA9.1%NC

11.2%

MS12.7%

LA11.9%

TN10.3%

ME8.4%

SC10.9%

WV6.0%

VT3.8%

NH6.3%

MA2.8%

CT6.0%

NJ8.7%MD

6.6%

RI5.7%

AK14.9%

HI4.0%


*Di�erence is statistically di�erent from zero with 90 percent con�dence.Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates


Percent of population without health insurance in 2015U.S. = 9.4%


US health care costs impact global competitiveness

Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015Select OECD Countries

5.8 7.2

9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.4

9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.4

10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2

11.5 16.9

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Mexico Korea Spain

Italy Australia

Ireland New Zealand

Finland United Kingdom

Norway Canada Austria

Belgium Netherlands

France Sweden

Germany Japan

Switzerland United States


Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat

Select OECD Countries

5.87.2

9.09.19.39.49.49.69.89.910.110.410.4

10.811.011.111.111.2

11.516.9

0 5 10 15 20

Mexico

Spain

Australia

New Zealand

United Kingdom

Canada

Belgium

France

Germany

Switzerland


Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015

Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat

Select OECD Countries

Percent of GDPPercent of GDP


TX15.9%

CA15.3%

MT14.6%

NM20.4%

AZ17.4%

NV14.7%

CO11.5%

WY11.1%

OR15.4%

UT11.3%

MN10.2%ID

15.1%

KS13.0%

NE12.6%

SD13.7%

ND11.0%

OK16.1%

MO14.8%

WA12.2%

GA17.0%

IL13.6%

IA12.2%

WI12.1%

AR19.1%

AL18.5%

PA13.2%OH

14.8%

FL15.7%

NC16.4%

MS22.0%

NY15.4%

LA19.6%

TN16.7%

MI15.8%

KY18.5%

VA11.2%

IN14.5%

ME13.4%

SC16.6%

WV17.9%

VT10.2%

NH8.2%

MA11.5%

CT10.5%

NJ10.8%MD

9.7%

RI13.9%

AK10.3%

HI10.6%

Thirty-four states have a higher poverty rate than Utah; 3 have lower rate

*Di�erence is statistically di�erent from zero with 90 percent con�dence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates


TX15.9%

CA15.3%

MT14.6%

NM20.4%

AZ17.4%

NV14.7%

CO11.5%

WY11.1%

OR15.4%

UT11.3%

MN10.2%ID

15.1%

KS13.0%

NE12.6%

SD13.7%

ND11.0%

OK16.1%

MO14.8%

WA12.2%

GA17.0%

IL13.6%

IA12.2%

WI12.1%

AR19.1%

AL18.5%

PA13.2%OH

14.8%

FL15.7%

NC16.4%

MS22.0%

NY15.4%

LA19.6%

TN16.7%

MI15.8%

KY18.5%

VA11.2%

IN14.5%

ME13.4%

SC16.6%

WV17.9%

VT10.2%

NH8.2%

MA11.5%

CT10.5%

NJ10.8%MD

9.7%

RI13.9%

AK10.3%

HI10.6%

Thirty-four states have a higher poverty rate than Utah; 3 have lower rate

*Di�erence is statistically di�erent from zero with 90 percent con�dence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates


Percent of population with income below poverty level, 2015U.S. = 14.7%

Thirty-four states have a higher poverty rate than Utah; 3 have lower

Wasatch Front and Wasatch Back lead post recession job recovery

Employment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Jobs | 35

Utah’s Largest Employers

Company Industry Jobs

Intermountain Healthcare Health Care 20,000 +

State of Utah State Government 20,000 +

University of Utah (Including Hospital) Higher Education 20,000 +

Brigham Young University Higher Education 15,000-19,999

Wal-Mart Associates Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters 15,000-19,999

Hill Air Force Base Federal Government 10,000-14,999

Davis County School District Public Education 7,000-9,999

Granite School District Public Education 7,000-9,999

Utah State University Higher Education 7,000-9,999

Smith’s Food and Drug Centers Grocery Stores 7,000-9999

Alpine School District Public Education 7,000-9,999

U.S. Department of Treasury Federal Government 5,000-6,999

Jordan School District Public Education 5,000-6,999

Salt Lake County Local Government 5,000-6,999

Utah Valley University Higher Education 5,000-6,999

U.S. Postal Service Federal Government 4,000-4,999

Zions Bank Mangement Services Banking 4,000-4,999

The Canyons School District Public Education 4,000-4,999

The Home Depot Home Centers 4,000-4,999

Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

36 | Jobs Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Employment has surpassed 2007 peak in all but three sectors

Employment as a percent of 2007 peakNovember, 2016


Financial activities a particularly bright spot in Utah

Utah employment by industry

Improving Expanding

Contracting Slowing


Ann

ualiz

ed ra

te o

f cha

nge:

Aug

16

– N

ov 1

6


Has unemployment bottomed out in Utah?

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%"Headline" rateU-6 rate


Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment ratesU-6 rate includes marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%"Headline" rateU-6 rate


Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment ratesU-6 rate includes marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates U-6 rate includes marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons

Plateau in public sector job growth?

Job index for Utah public and private sectorsSeasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0 Private

Federal Government

State & Local Government


Job index for Utah private and public sectorsSeasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal government recession response and Decennial Census

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0 Private

Federal Government

State & Local Government


Job index for Utah private and public sectorsSeasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal government recession response and Decennial Census


Utah school districts' graduation rates range from 68 percent to 98 percent

Utah school districts’ graduation rates range from 68 percent to 98 percent

4-year graduation rates by school district, 2016

Notes: Statewide rate was 85% in 2016. Percentages for small groups of less than 40 students are obscured by showing the range in which the percentage falls.

Source: Utah State O ce of Education

data shown in box labels

<70%

70-79%

80-89%

90-100%

Box Elder87%

Tooele91%

Millard93%

San Juan85%

Kane92%

Iron82%

Emery90%

Uintah79%

Gar�eld88%

Grand86%

Beaver83%

Wayne90%

Duchesne84%

Sevier85%

Tintic80-89% Juab

97%

Nebo90%

Carbon97%

Washington88%

Cache94%

Wasatch89%

S. Summit91%

Rich90-

100%

Alpine91%

Davis94%

Piute80-89%

S. Sanpete89%

Daggett80-100%

N. Sanpete

76%

Ogden 68%

Logan 84%

N. Summit 95 – 100%

Park City 91%

Salt Lake 76%

Murray 79%

Canyons 85%

Provo 71%

Granite 73%

Jordan 87%

Weber 83%

Morgan 92%

Utah school districts’ graduation rates range from 68 percent to 98 percent


Notes: Statewide rate was 85% in 2016. Percentages for small groups of less than 40 students are obscured by showing the range in which the percentage falls.

Source: Utah State O ce of Education

data shown in box labels

<70%

70-79%

80-89%

90-100%

Box Elder87%

Tooele91%

Millard93%

San Juan85%

Kane92%

Iron82%

Emery90%

Uintah79%

Gar�eld88%

Grand86%

Beaver83%

Wayne90%

Duchesne84%

Sevier85%

Tintic80-89% Juab

97%

Nebo90%

Carbon97%

Washington88%

Cache94%

Wasatch89%

S. Summit91%

Rich90-

100%

Alpine91%

Davis94%

Piute80-89%

S. Sanpete89%

Daggett80-100%

N. Sanpete

76%

Ogden 68%

Logan 84%

N. Summit 95 – 100%

Park City 91%

Salt Lake 76%

Murray 79%

Canyons 85%

Provo 71%

Granite 73%

Jordan 87%

Weber 83%

Morgan 92%


Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Education | 41

42 | Education Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Public schools lose over one-third of new teachers after four years

84.5%73.8%

64.4%58.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015


Retention of new Utah teachers2010-2011 Cohort

Source: Utah State Board of Education

84.5%73.8%

64.4%58.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015



Source: Utah State Board of Education



More than one in ten Utahns has a graduate degree

7.2%

8.9%

10.4%

11.6%

6.8%

8.3%

9.4%

10.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1990 2000 2010 2015

United States Utah

More than one in ten Utahnshas a graduate degree

Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or professional degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and Decennial Census

7.2%

8.9%

10.4%

11.6%

6.8%

8.3%

9.4%

10.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1990 2000 2010 2015

United States Utah

More than one in ten Utahnshas a graduate degree

Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or professional degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and Decennial Census

Percent of population 25 years and over with a graduate or professional degree


Utah educational attainment ranks 14th among states

Educational attainment for persons 25 years and over, 2015Bachelor’s degrees or higher, U.S. = 30.6%

Utah tuition and fees rank 4th lowest among states

Average undergraduate tuition and feesU.S. = $8,543

)

)


Despite some overlap, popular majors differ significantly by gender

Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, 20.2%

Social Sciences ,

9.3%

Engineering, 9.1%

Biological & Biomedical Sciences ,

7.8%Computer and Information Sciences and

Support Services , 6.9%

All other, 46.7%

Despite some overlap, popular majors di�er signi�cantly by gender

Top �ve undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women

Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster

Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions

Utah MenHealth Professions and

Related Programs, 17.9%

Education, 13.7%

Business, Management,

Marketing, and Related Support Services , 7.9%

Psychology, 7.1%Social

Sciences , 6.7%

All other, 46.7%

Utah Women

Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, 20.2%

Social Sciences ,

9.3%

Engineering, 9.1%

Biological & Biomedical Sciences ,

7.8%Computer and Information Sciences and

Support Services , 6.9%

All other, 46.7%

Despite some overlap, popular majors di�er signi�cantly by gender

Top �ve undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women

Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster


Utah MenHealth Professions and

Related Programs, 17.9%

Education, 13.7%

Business, Management,

Marketing, and Related Support Services , 7.9%

Psychology, 7.1%Social

Sciences , 6.7%

All other, 46.7%

Utah Women

Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and womenBachelor’s degrees completed in 2015



Many STEM majors dominated by men in Utah

64.1%

64.5%

72.4%

88.9%

89.5%

35.9%

35.5%

27.6%

11.1%

10.5%

Foreign Languages, Literatures, andLinguistics

Biological and Biomedical Sciences

Business, Management, Marketing,and Related Support Services

Engineering

Computer and Information Sciencesand Support

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Male Female

In Utah any STEM majors continue to be dominated by men

Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah

Note: Bachelors degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster in 2015


Most male dominated degrees:

34.6%

30.0%

22.0%

19.5%

12.8%

65.4%

70.0%

78.0%

80.5%

87.2%

Psychology

English Language andLiterature/Letters

Health Professions and RelatedPrograms

Education

Family and Consumer Sciences

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Male FemaleMost female dominated degrees:

64.1%

64.5%

72.4%

88.9%

89.5%

35.9%

35.5%

27.6%

11.1%

10.5%

Foreign Languages, Literatures, andLinguistics

Biological and Biomedical Sciences

Business, Management, Marketing,and Related Support Services

Engineering

Computer and Information Sciencesand Support

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Male Female

In Utah any STEM majors continue to be dominated by men


Note: Bachelors degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster in 2015


Most male dominated degrees:

34.6%

30.0%

22.0%

19.5%

12.8%

65.4%

70.0%

78.0%

80.5%

87.2%

Psychology

English Language andLiterature/Letters

Health Professions and RelatedPrograms

Education

Family and Consumer Sciences

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Male FemaleMost female dominated degrees:


Utah's middle class has shrunk since the 1980s

Share of households in the middle class

48 | Income and Debt Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah’s distribution of income is among the most equal in the US

Gini Index of Income Equality0 = complete equality; 1 = complete inequality

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Income and Debt | 49

Real average hourly wages have improved but remain below 2007 average

Utah real private average hourly earnings indexSeasonally adjusted, 2007 average = 100



Net earnings contribution to personal income shrinking

81.3%72.3%

81.3%72.3%

Utah components of personal income

Utah bankruptcy filing rate is declining in a strong economy, remains above US rate

Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and USNumber of Chapter 7, 11, and 13 cases commenced per 1,000 adult population


Real Salt Lake athletes play for the love of the game


Real Salt Lake(Ten highest 2016 salaries)

Los Angeles Galaxy(Ten highest 2016 salaries)


Source: Spotrac

Player Salary

Juan ManuelMartinez

$1,060,000

Kyle Beckerman $675,000

Javier Morales $590,000

Nick Rimando $400,000

Chris Wingert $235,000

Stephen Sunday $220,000

Tony Beltran $210,000

Jamison Olave $215,000

Yura Movsisyan $200,000

Joao Plata $175,000


Player Salary

Steven Gerrard $6,000,000

Robbie Keane $3,500,000

Giovani Dos Santos $2,500,000

Gyasi Zardes $472,500

Landon Donovan $456,000

Jelle Van Damme $425,000

Ashley Cole $300,000

Mike Magee $250,000

Robbie Rogers $220,000

A. J. DeLaGarxa $225,000



Source: Spotrac

Player Salary

Juan ManuelMartinez

$1,060,000

Kyle Beckerman $675,000

Javier Morales $590,000

Nick Rimando $400,000

Chris Wingert $235,000

Stephen Sunday $220,000

Tony Beltran $210,000

Jamison Olave $215,000

Yura Movsisyan $200,000

Joao Plata $175,000


Player Salary

Steven Gerrard $6,000,000

Robbie Keane $3,500,000

Giovani Dos Santos $2,500,000

Gyasi Zardes $472,500

Landon Donovan $456,000

Jelle Van Damme $425,000

Ashley Cole $300,000

Mike Magee $250,000

Robbie Rogers $220,000

A. J. DeLaGarxa $225,000


Utah’s per capita student loan debt has more than tripled since 2003, ranks low

Utah‘s per capita student loan debt has more than tripled since 2003, ranks low

Utah per capita debt by loan typeConstant 2015 dollars

Note: Per capita �gures are limited to individuals 18 years and over.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2015

Q4 2003 Q4 2015 03 - 15Loan Type $ Rank $ Rank Change

Auto Loan $3,851 18 $4,490 13 16.6%

Credit Card $3,336 43 $2,640 29 -20.9%

Mortgage Loan $35,129 14 $38,420 12 9.4%

Student Loan $1,005 45 $3,870 46 285.1%

Other $3,358 - $2,730 - -18.7%

Total $46,679 16 $52,150 13 11.7%


Utah per capita debt by loan typeConstant 2015 dollars

TX96.6

MT94.2

CA112.4

NM95.0

AZ96.4

NV97.7

WY96.2

OR99.0

UT97.0

MN97.6ID

93.4

KS90.7

CO102.0

NE90.6

SD88.0

ND91.5

OK90.1

MO89.4

GA92.0

IA90.3

WI93.4

AR87.5

WA103.8

AL87.8

NC91.7

MS86.7

LA91.4

PA98.2

IL100.7

MI94.1

OH89.3

NY115.7

IN91.4

SC90.5

FL99.1

TN90.2

KY88.7

ME97.1

VA102.6

WV88.9

VT101.2

NH105.2

MA107.1

CT108.8

NJ114.5MD

110.3

RI98.7

AK105.7

HI116.8

<90.090.1 - 95.095.1 - 100.0100.1 - 105.0105.1 - 110.0>110.0

Utah goods and services are less expensive than in 23 other states

Regional Price Parities, 2014

Note: Regional Price Parities measure the di�erences in price levels of goods and services across regions for a given year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

TX96.6

MT94.2

CA112.4

NM95.0

AZ96.4

NV97.7

WY96.2

OR99.0

UT97.0

MN97.6ID

93.4

KS90.7

CO102.0

NE90.6

SD88.0

ND91.5

OK90.1

MO89.4

GA92.0

IA90.3

WI93.4

AR87.5

WA103.8

AL87.8

NC91.7

MS86.7

LA91.4

PA98.2

IL100.7

MI94.1

OH89.3

NY115.7

IN91.4

SC90.5

FL99.1

TN90.2

KY88.7

ME97.1

VA102.6

WV88.9

VT101.2

NH105.2

MA107.1

CT108.8

NJ114.5MD

110.3

RI98.7

AK105.7

HI116.8

<90.090.1 - 95.095.1 - 100.0100.1 - 105.0105.1 - 110.0>110.0



Note: Regional Price Parities measure the di�erences in price levels of goods and services across regions for a given year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year.


Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sales and Prices | 55



Utahns enjoy low-cost electricity

TX11.1

CA18.2

MT11.6

NM12.9

AZ12.8

NV11.2

CO12.8

WY11.8

OR10.9

WA9.6

UT11.3

MN13.9ID

10.3

KS12.9

NE12.3

SD12.5

ND11.9

OK11.1

MO11.3

LA9.5

GA11.9

IL12.2

IA12.7

WI14.8

AR10.4

AL12.3

NC11.4

MS10.2

NY18.4

PA14.2

MI15.8

OH11.9IN

11.8

SC12.7

FL11.4

TN10.6

KY10.5

VA11.7

ME16.3

WV11.6

VT17.5

NH18.4

MA19.5

CT19.0

NJ16.2

MD14.0

RI20.5

AK20.9

HI27.8 < 11.5 c/kWh

11.5 - 13.0 c/kWh13.1 - 17.5 c/kWh> 17.5 c/kWh


Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

TX11.1

CA18.2

MT11.6

NM12.9

AZ12.8

NV11.2

CO12.8

WY11.8

OR10.9

WA9.6

UT11.3

MN13.9ID

10.3

KS12.9

NE12.3

SD12.5

ND11.9

OK11.1

MO11.3

LA9.5

GA11.9

IL12.2

IA12.7

WI14.8

AR10.4

AL12.3

NC11.4

MS10.2

NY18.4

PA14.2

MI15.8

OH11.9IN

11.8

SC12.7

FL11.4

TN10.6

KY10.5

VA11.7

ME16.3

WV11.6

VT17.5

NH18.4

MA19.5

CT19.0

NJ16.2

MD14.0

RI20.5

AK20.9

HI27.8 < 11.5 c/kWh

11.5 - 13.0 c/kWh13.1 - 17.5 c/kWh> 17.5 c/kWh


Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

56 | Sales and Prices Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Average retail price of electricity to residential sectorCents/kWh, September 2016

2.3%

2.2%

2.7%

3.5%

3.6%

2.3%

8.1%

10.0%

7.5%

10.9%

15.0%

9.2%

22.7%

1.4%

1.9%

2.1%

2.6%

3.3%

3.6%

6.4%

7.3%

9.3%

11.0%

13.9%

14.8%

22.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Electronics & appliance stores

Miscellaneous store retailers

Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores

Furniture & home furnishings stores

Clothing & clothing accessories stores

Health & personal care stores

Building material & garden equip. & supplies

Gasoline stations

Food services and drinking places

Food & beverage stores

General merchandise stores

Nonstore retailers

Motor vehicle & parts dealers20162006

Signi�cant growth in nonstore retail activity

Composition of Utah Retail Sales2006 vs. 2016

Note: 2016 is estimated.

Source: Kem

2.3%

2.2%

2.7%

3.5%

3.6%

2.3%

8.1%

10.0%

7.5%

10.9%

15.0%

9.2%

22.7%

1.4%

1.9%

2.1%

2.6%

3.3%

3.6%

6.4%

7.3%

9.3%

11.0%

13.9%

14.8%

22.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Electronics & appliance stores

Miscellaneous store retailers

Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores

Furniture & home furnishings stores

Clothing & clothing accessories stores

Health & personal care stores

Building material & garden equip. & supplies

Gasoline stations

Food services and drinking places

Food & beverage stores

General merchandise stores

Nonstore retailers

Motor vehicle & parts dealers20162006

Signi�cant growth in nonstore retail activity

Composition of Utah Retail Sales2006 vs. 2016

Note: 2016 is estimated.

Source: Kem


Significant growth in nonstore retail activity

Composition of Utah retail sales2006 vs. 2016

Most of the nation’s largest e-retailers have nexus in Utah-retailers

have nexus in Utah

Utah nexus for largest US e-retailersE-Retailers with more than $4 billion sales in 2015

*A�liates with nexus in Utah must collect and remit sale tax for Utah purchases. Amazon began voluntarily collecting and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017.

Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

E-Retailer2015 Sales ($ billions)

Utah Nexus

Amazon.com Inc. $92.5 No*

Apple Inc. $24.4 Yes

Dell Inc. $15.7 Yes

Walmart.com $13.7 Yes

Staples Inc. $10.7 Yes

Macy's Inc. $6.2 Yes

The Home Depot Inc. $4.7 Yes

Costco Wholesale Corp. $4.5 Yes

O�ce Depot Inc. $4.4 Yes

QVC Group $4.3 No

W.W. Grainger Inc. $4.1 Yes

Best Buy Co. $4.0 Yes

-retailers have nexus in Utah


*A�liates with nexus in Utah must collect and remit sale tax for Utah purchases. Amazon began voluntarily collecting and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017.

Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

E-Retailer2015 Sales ($ billions)

Utah Nexus

Amazon.com Inc. $92.5 No*

Apple Inc. $24.4 Yes

Dell Inc. $15.7 Yes

Walmart.com $13.7 Yes

Staples Inc. $10.7 Yes

Macy's Inc. $6.2 Yes

The Home Depot Inc. $4.7 Yes

Costco Wholesale Corp. $4.5 Yes

O�ce Depot Inc. $4.4 Yes

QVC Group $4.3 No

W.W. Grainger Inc. $4.1 Yes

Best Buy Co. $4.0 Yes

58 | Sales and Prices Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017


Structural changes in tastes and preferences

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

20%-

15%-

10%-

5%-

0%-

-5%-

-10%-20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Share of Average Total Expenditures

<5.5% 5.5% – 8.0% >8.0%

Millenial expenditure growthYear-over-year percent change & change from 2012 to 2015

Percent change from three years ago

Recovering

Contracting

Expanding

Decelerating

Housing-Owned

Apparel

Food at Home

Housing-Rented

Entertainment

Transportation

Food away from Home

Alcohol


Does Utah have a housing shortage? Now more new households than new units

Growth in housing units and households in Utah

60 | Real Estate and Construction Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Sustainable construction job levels?

Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Real Estate and Construction | 61

Utah’s long-running housing price increase nineteenth highest in nation

Real change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980–2015


Elevated multifamily construction activity

Utah residential constructionPermitted units


Inflation-adjusted nonresidential construction value reached a record $2.5 billion in 2016

Value of permit-authorized construction in UtahMillions of constant 2016 dollars



Will low for-sale inventory continue to push prices upwards?

Index of for-sale inventorySeasonally adjusted, 2010 average = 100

Housing prices on the rise in Utah metros

Median existing home pricesUtah metro areas


Utah travelers spending at a record high

$6,812

$7,571 $7,486

$6,189

$6,805$7,277

$7,530 $7,638$7,982 $8,169

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Utah traveler spending at a record high

Direct Utah traveler spendingMillions of constant 2015 dollars

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shi�et and TNS Global data

$6,812

$7,571 $7,486

$6,189

$6,805$7,277

$7,530 $7,638$7,982 $8,169

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Utah traveler spending at a record high


Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shi�et and TNS Global data


Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Travel and Tourism | 67

126,200124,500

138,800

136,900

125,400125,000

126,800

129,600

132,700

137,200

142,500

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Travel and tourism activity inUtah bolsters signi�cant jobs

Utah tourism-generated jobs

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

126,200124,500

138,800

136,900

125,400125,000

126,800

129,600

132,700

137,200

142,500

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Travel and tourism activity inUtah bolsters signi�cant jobs


Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Travel and tourism activity in Utah bolsters significant jobs


68 | Travel and Tourism Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Chinese visitors claiming larger and larger shares of all foreign visitor spending

4.4% 6.6% 7.9% 9.4% 12.0%

25.0% 23.9% 25.5% 20.8%25.3%

26.7% 25.4% 24.4%19.3%

19.3%

43.9% 44.1% 42.2%50.5%

43.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China EU & U.K. Canada Rest of World


International visitor visa card Utah spending sharesTop markets and the rest of the world

Note: Estimates are based on and extrapolated from aggregate depersonalized card usage data.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVue® Travel data

4.4% 6.6% 7.9% 9.4% 12.0%

25.0% 23.9% 25.5% 20.8%25.3%

26.7% 25.4% 24.4%19.3%

19.3%

43.9% 44.1% 42.2%50.5%

43.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China EU & U.K. Canada Rest of World


International visitor visa card Utah spending sharesTop markets and the rest of the world

Note: Estimates are based on and extrapolated from aggregate depersonalized card usage data.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVue® Travel data

International visitor Visa cardTop markets and the rest of the world


Total skier days up despite lower average annual snowfall

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Skier Days (millions)

Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah)


Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall

Sources: Ski Utah and Alta Avalanche Center

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Skier Days (millions)

Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah)



Sources: Ski Utah and Alta Avalanche Center


70 | Travel and Tourism Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017


Utah parks draw record visitation

5.5 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.37.2

8.4

4.6 4.8 4.64.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1

3.8

4.6

4.910.1 10.39.9

9.5 9.38.9 9.0 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.7

10.1

11.9

13.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0National Places

National Parks


Utah national park and place visitationMillions of visitors

Note: National Places include national monuments, recreation areas, and historic sites; Flaming Gorge NRA data not included.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service data

5.5 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.37.2

8.4

4.6 4.8 4.64.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1

3.8

4.6

4.910.1 10.39.9

9.5 9.38.9 9.0 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.7

10.1

11.9

13.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0National Places

National Parks



Note: National Places include national monuments, recreation areas, and historic sites; Flaming Gorge NRA data not included.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service data


Only DC has faster internet speeds than Utah

Highest internet connection speeds in the USAverage mbps, Q3 2016

72 | Resources Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah a top state for solar

States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015Megawatts installed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Resources | 73

Utah contributes just over one percent to nation’s energy production

States’ share of total US energy production87,228 trillion Btu, 2014


Utah consumes less energy per capita than national average

Energy consumption per capitaMillion Btu, 2014


High record temperatures more common than low record in recent decade

Salt Lake City temperature recordsNumber of daily high and low records set in each 10-year period


Note: Lines are 3-period moving averages


Drought conditions improve

Share of Utah land area in drought conditionsAverage annual weekly drought percentages

Note: 2016 is an estimate

Source: United States Drought Monitor

Utah one of eleven states with triple-triple rating

States with triple-triple ratingAAA rating from Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P

78 | Fiscal Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Source: The Bond Buyer, Novermber 2016

ntriple-triple rating

Almost a quarter of all state sales and use tax collections are earmarked

State of Utah sales and use tax collectionsMillions of current dollars

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Fiscal | 79

Utah has a healthy rainy day fund

State of Utah budget reserve accountsMillions of current dollars

80 | Fiscal Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Fiscal | 81

Education, education, education

Federal Funds,26% Social Services,

26%Federal Funds,

26% Social Services,26%

Budget of the State of UtahAll funds, Fiscal Year 2017

Utah exports begin to recover

82 | International Trade Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Utah merchandise exports(millions of dollars)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute International Trade | 83

Utah is global

Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015

Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015(millions of dollars)

Thar’s gold in them thar hills


Top ten Utah export industries: 2015(millions of dollars)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute International Trade | 85

The age of acceleration

“When I wrote 'The World Is Flat,' I said the world is

flat. Yeah, we're all connected. Facebook didn't

exist; Twitter was a sound; the cloud was in the sky;

4G was a parking place; LinkedIn was a prison;

applications were what you sent to college; and

Skype, for most people, was a typo.”

- Thomas Friedman

Source: Thank You for Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Utah is home to a global religion—now more international than US members

15,634,199

6,531,656

9,102,543

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2015

Total US International

Utah is home to a global religion nowmore international than US members

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership

Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

15,634,199

6,531,656

9,102,543

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2015

Total US International

Utah is home to a global religion nowmore international than US members


Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints



County shares of $1.6 B FY 15 defense contracts & grants

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Economic Strength and Diversity | 87

Over $1.6 billion in defense contracts and grants obligated in Utah in FY 2015


Utah’s defense industry economic boot print

Share of Utah defense sector total economic impacts by component, 2015

88 | Economic Strength and Diversity Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017



Utah’s economy among the most diverse in the nation

TX73.2

CA93.8

MT79.7

NM64.3

AZ93.6

NV61.7

CO93.1

WY28.2

OR73.4

UT96.7

MN94.2ID

79.7

KS91.5

NE65.4

SD62.1

ND48.3

OK58.6

MO96.7

WA87.0

GA95.9

IL95.7

IA75.2

WI92.5

AR88.0

AL91.0

NC90.4

MS87.5

NY80.3

LA68.5

PA95.7

MI86.7

OH93.3IN

74.6

SC90.7

FL91.2

TN91.9

KY89.9

VA88.8

ME90.8

WV54.0

VT90.7

NH93.0

MA89.8

CT90.2

NJ91.7

MD86.7

RI88.0

AK31.7

HI71.9

< 50.050.0 - 75.075.1 - 90.0> 90.0

most diverse in the nation

Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation.


TX73.2

CA93.8

MT79.7

NM64.3

AZ93.6

NV61.7

CO93.1

WY28.2

OR73.4

UT96.7

MN94.2ID

79.7

KS91.5

NE65.4

SD62.1

ND48.3

OK58.6

MO96.7

WA87.0

GA95.9

IL95.7

IA75.2

WI92.5

AR88.0

AL91.0

NC90.4

MS87.5

NY80.3

LA68.5

PA95.7

MI86.7

OH93.3IN

74.6

SC90.7

FL91.2

TN91.9

KY89.9

VA88.8

ME90.8

WV54.0

VT90.7

NH93.0

MA89.8

CT90.2

NJ91.7

MD86.7

RI88.0

AK31.7

HI71.9

< 50.050.0 - 75.075.1 - 90.0> 90.0

most diverse in the nation

Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation.


Hachman Index of GDP diversity2-digit NAICS, 2015

Select Delta Air Lines routes

CANADA

Delta Air Lines/Delta Connection/Delta Joint Venture Route

New Route Starting this Month

Future Route Service

Destination served by Delta/Delta Connection

Destination served by one of Delta’s Worldwide Codeshare Partners

E�ective November 2016. Select routes are seasonal. Some future services subject to government approval. Service may be operated by one of Delta’s codeshare partner airlines or one of Delta’s Connection Carriers. Flights are subject to change without notice.

M E X I C O

C A N A D A

H AWA I I

A L A S K A

BAHAMAS

PacificOcean

Atlantic Ocean

Gulfof Mexico

Pacific OceanMiami

Orlando

West Palm Beach

Portland

Boise

San Jose

Las Vegas

Burbank

San Diego

Denver

San Sacramento Francisco Oakland Salt Lake City

Tucson

Phoenix/ScottsdaleAlbuquerque

Charleston

Colorado Springs

Greenville/Spartanburg

Decatur

Pensacola

Savannah

Baltimore

Birmingham

Chicago (ORD, MDW)

Houston(IAH, HOU)

Louisville

Memphis

Milwaukee

Philadelphia

San Antonio

St. Louis

Tampa/St. Petersburg

Sarasota/Bradenton

Charlotte

Cleveland

Dallas/Ft. Worth (DFW)

Detroit

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Norfolk/Virginia Beach

Omaha

Baton Rouge

Albany

Atlanta

Austin

Boston

Columbia

Columbus

Jackson

Little Rock

Nashville

Oklahoma City

Raleigh/Durham

Richmond

Tallahassee

Hartford/Springfield

Cincinnati

Bozeman

Orange County

Portland

New York (JFK, LGA)

Newark

Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem

Lexington

Grand Rapids

Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood

Syracuse

Bu�alo/Niagara Falls

KnoxvilleTulsa

Daytona Beach

El Paso/Ciudad Juárez

Manchester

Melbourne

Mobile

Ontario

Ft. Myers/Naples

Destin/Ft. Walton Beach

Indianapolis

Minneapolis/St. Paul

Dayton

Lafayette

Alexandria

Harrisburg

Madison

Shreveport

Pittsburgh

Appleton/Fox Cities

Bangor

Billings

Bloomington

Burlington

Cedar Rapids/ Iowa City

Des Moines

Elmira/Corning

Erie

Ft. Wayne

White PlainsLansing

Midland/Saginaw

Moline/ Quad Cities

Rochester

Springfield/Branson

Great Falls

Sioux Falls

Spokane

Wichita

Lincoln

Panama City

Fayetteville/Northwest Arkansas

Missoula

Rapid City

Reno/Tahoe

Asheville

Charleston

Akron/Canton

Gulfport/Biloxi New Orleans

Chattanooga Huntsville/

Binghamton Newburgh

Roanoke

Gainesville

Kalispell

Evansville

Monroe

Tri-Cities

Casper

Jackson Hole

Pasco/Richland/Kennewick

Los Angeles Newport News/Williamsburg

South Bend

Helena

Flint

Idaho Falls

Allentown

Kalamazoo/Battle Creek

Duluth

Myrtle Beach

KahuluiHonolulu

Kona

Long Beach

La CrosseRochester

Killeen/Ft. Hood

Montrose/Telluride

Hayden/Steamboat Springs

Eagle/Vail/Beaver Creek

Lihue

Gillette

Fargo

Williston

Ithaca

Peoria

West Yellowstone

Elko

Palm Springs

Fresno/Yosemite

Sun ValleyTwinFalls

Pocatello

St. George

Columbus/Starkville/West Point

Albany

Augusta

ScW

rilkanton

es-Barre/

Brunswick

Washington, D.C. (DCA, IAD)

Charlottesville

Columbus/Ft. Benning Montgomery

Dothan

Key West

Valdosta

State College

Wilmington

Cody

EugeneLewiston

Medford

Redmond/Bend

Grand Junction

New BernJacksonville/Camp Lejeune

Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg

Cedar City

Butte

Bismarck

AberdeenAlpena Traverse

City

Sault Ste. Marie

EscanabaWausau Green Bay

Grand Forks

Iron Mountain

Brainerd MarquetteBemidji

Chisholm/Hibbing

International FallsMinot

Pellston/Mackinac Island

Santa Rosa

Dallas Love Field (DAL)

Ft. Smith

Bellingham

Abbotsford

Seattle/Tacoma Wenatchee

Yakima

Walla Walla

Juneau

Anchorage

Fairbanks

Ketchikan

Sitka

Mammoth Lakes

Pullman

Maui

Hawaii

Kauai

Oahu

Vancouver

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Saskatoon

Regina

Calgary/Ban�

Toronto

Montreal

Ottawa

Halifax

Victoria

Nanaimo

Comox

Kelowna

Penticton

Ft. McMurray

Whitehorse Fort St. John Yellowknife

Terrace

Prince George

St. John’s, NL

Martha’s Vineyard

ProvidenceNantucket

Hilo

Thunder Bay

London

Moncton

Fredericton

Sydney

Rhinelander

Aspen/Snowmass

Deer Lake

Harlingen/ South Padre Island

Québec

Santa Barbara

Grande Prairie

Kamloops

Charlottetown

Source: Delta Air Lines

Delta Air Lines U.S. and Canada Routes



Salt Lake City possesses outstanding rail connectivity

T

Wichita

opeka

Laredo

San Antonio

Brownsville

Houston

New Orleans

Memphis

Little Rock

KansasCity

Chicago

Ft.Worth

Dallas

St. Louis

Omaha

Duluth

Milwaukee

Oklahoma City

Des Moines

Lubbock

Eagle Pass

Pine Blu� Texarkana

Livonia

Ogden

Roseville

Phoenix

Seattle

Salt Lake City

Portland

Spokane

Denver

El Paso

North Platte Cheyenne

Oakland

Los Angeles

Reno

Las Vegas

Pocatello

Minneapolis/St. PaulEugene

San Francisco Stockton

ColtonAmarillo

Tucson

Eastport

Long Beach

Nogales

Hinkle

Fresno

Calexico

Shreveport

Wichita

opeka

Laredo

San Antonio

Brownsville

Houston

New Orleans

Memphis

Little Rock

KansasCity

Chicago

Ft.Worth

Dallas

St. Louis

Omaha

Duluth

Milwaukee

Oklahoma City

Des Moines

Lubbock

Eagle Pass

Pine Blu� Texarkana

Livonia

Ogden

Roseville

Phoenix

Seattle

Salt Lake City

Portland

Spokane

Denver

El Paso

North Platte Cheyenne

Oakland

Los Angeles

Reno

Las Vegas

Pocatello

Minneapolis/St. PaulEugene

San Francisco Stockton

ColtonAmarillo

Tucson

Eastport

Long Beach

Nogales

Hinkle

Fresno

Calexico

Shreveport

Source: Reproduced based on official route map of Union Pacific

Union Pacific Rail Network

The Utah economy mirrors the nation’s

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Government Other services, except government

Accommodation and food services Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Health care and social assistance Educational services

Administrative and waste management services Management of companies and enterprises

Professional, scienti�c, and technical services Real estate and rental and leasing

Finance and insurance Information

Transportation and warehousing Retail trade

Wholesale trade Nondurable goods manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing Construction

Utilities Mining

Agriculture, forestry, �shing, and hunting

UtahUnited States

US and Utah GDP by IndustryPercent of total GDP, 2015

Source: Kem

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Government Other services, except government

Accommodation and food services Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Health care and social assistance Educational services

Administrative and waste management services Management of companies and enterprises

Professional, scienti�c, and technical services Real estate and rental and leasing

Finance and insurance Information

Transportation and warehousing Retail trade

Wholesale trade Nondurable goods manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing Construction

Utilities Mining

Agriculture, forestry, �shing, and hunting

UtahUnited States

US and Utah GDP by IndustryPercent of total GDP, 2015

Source: Kem

US and Utah GDP by industryPercent of total GDP, 2015


Leadership truisms

With good data and information come better decisions

Informed Decisions

1. Leadership is an activity, not a position.

2. Anyone can lead, anytime, anywhere.

3. It starts with you and must engage others.

4. Your purpose must be clear.

5. It’s risky.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Shedding Light | 93

Source: Kansas Leadership Center

94 | Shedding Light Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Progress often requires a person to get out of their comfort zone

Where the

Magic Happens

Your

Comfort

Zone

Source: Herminia Ibarra

If we enhance our ability to adapt even slightly it can make a significant difference

Source: Thank You For Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Human adaptability

Time

Rate

of c

hang

e Learning faster and growing smarter

Technology

We are here

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Shedding Light | 95

With good data and information come better decisionsPr

obab

ility

of m

akin

g a

good

dec

isio

n

Good data and information

With good data and information come better decisions

Informed Decisions

96 | Shedding Light Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Staff and Advisors

Leadership TeamNatalie Gochnour, DirectorJennifer Robinson, Associate DirectorJames A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior FellowDianne Meppen, Director of Survey ResearchPamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic ResearchJuliette Tennert, Director of Economics and Public Policy

Faculty AdvisorsMatt Burbank, Political Science DepartmentAdam Meirowitz, Finance Department

Senior AdvisorsJonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal AnalystGary Cornia, Marriott School of BusinessDan Griffiths, Tanner LLCRoger Hendrix, Hendrix ConsultingJoel Kotkin, Chapman UniversityDarin Mellott, CBREDerek Miller, World Trade Center UtahBud Scruggs, Cynosure Group

StaffSamantha Ball, Research AssociateDJ Benway, Research AnalystAnna Bergevin, Research AssociateCathy Chambless, Senior Research AssociateJohn C. Downen, Senior Research AnalystKen Embley, Senior Research AssociateEmily Harris, Demographic AnalystMichael T. Hogue, Senior Research StatisticianMike Hollingshaus, DemographerShelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance ManagerColleen Larson, Administrative ManagerJennifer Leaver, Research AnalystDavid LeBaron, Research Associate Sara McCormick, Senior Research AssociateLevi Pace, Research AnalystNicholas Thiriot, Communications SpecialistEffie Johnson Van Noy, Utah State Data

Center CoordinatorNatalie Young, Research Analyst

K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E A D V I S O R Y B O A R D

ConvenersMichael O. LeavittMitt Romney

BoardScott Anderson, Co-ChairGail Miller, Co-ChairDoug AndersonDeborah BayleLane BeattieCynthia A. BergRoger BoyerKen BullockWilford ClydeSophia M. DiCaroLisa EcclesSpencer P. EcclesMatt EyringKem C. GardnerChristian GardnerMatthew S. HollandClark IvoryRon JibsonMike S. LeavittVivian S. Lee

Kimberly Gardner MartinAnn MillnerCristina OrtegaJason PerryTaylor RandallJill Remington LoveBrad RencherJosh RomneyCharles W. SorensonJames Lee SorensonVicki VarelaRuth V. WatkinsTed WilsonNatalie Gochnour, Director

Ex OfficioSenator Orrin HatchGovernor Gary HerbertSpeaker Greg HughesSenate President Wayne

NiederhauserRepresentative Brian KingSenator Gene DavisMayor Ben McAdamsMayor Jackie Biskupski

S A LT L A K E C H A M B E R E X E C U T I V E B O A R D

Keith McMullin, ChairLane BeattieBruce BinghamJake BoyerTerry H. BucknerGérald CausséLori ChillingworthCindy CraneJohn DahlstromSpencer P. EcclesChris GamvroulasNatalie GochnourDavid R. GoldenVal HaleKay Hall

Victor IngallsPatricia W. JonesBrent LowMolly MazzoliniDerek MillerJim OlsonScott ParsonRay D. PickupVasilios PriskosSteven StarksNigel StewardCraig WagstaffLinda WardellBert R. Zimmerli

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Thomas S. Monson Center I 411 E. South Temple Street

Salt Lake City, UT 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner.utah.edu

AN INITIATIVE OF THE DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Documents

UTAH INFORMED · 2019-01-17 · In this, the second edition of Utah Informed, we share his optimism. The tables, charts, ideas, and schematics shared in this book present a microcosm