Utilities Integrated Master Plan - Arizona

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Utilities Integrated Master PlanUtilities Integrated Master Plan

Past Past –– Present Present -- FutureFuture

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Bradley M. Hill, R.G.Water Resources Manager

May 25, 2011

Utilities Integrated Master PlanUtilities Integrated Master Plan

�� Purpose:Purpose: guidance for water resource & infrastructure guidance for water resource & infrastructure planning planning (developments, performance criteria, etc)(developments, performance criteria, etc)

�� CityCity--wide integration:wide integration: voter approved Regional Planvoter approved Regional Plan

�� Divided into 5 Chapters:Divided into 5 Chapters:

–– Water resource, management, future projected needsWater resource, management, future projected needs

–– Water Infrastructure Water Infrastructure (pipeline & treatment sizing, locations, etc)(pipeline & treatment sizing, locations, etc)

–– Wastewater InfrastructureWastewater Infrastructure

–– Reclaimed Water InfrastructureReclaimed Water Infrastructure

–– Water PoliciesWater Policies22

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Water Water Resource Resource ChapterChapter

Water ManagementHistorical Water ProjectsRegulatory Framework

Water Use & Existing SuppliesPhysical & Legal

Population Projections and Future Water needs

Historical Growth & Slow Growth

Land Uses based on voterapproved 2001 Regional Plan

Future Water Supply OptionsVolume (AF) and Cost per AF

History of Water/ Wastewater History of Water/ Wastewater SystemsSystems

44

Since 1890s, City has constructed 3 major water importation projects (Santa Fe RR / Az Lumber & Timber Co)

Sewer: new imported water & new flush toilets – sewer problems, new to frontier western towns. 1917

2010 City imported 82% potable water supplies

~33 miles of pipeline

3

Historic Water Augmentation Historic Water Augmentation ProjectsProjects

55

1919 – Most Remarkable Domestic Water & Power Project1st proposed rainwater harvesting on Peaks (12,275 AF/yr)

1921 – Switzer Canyon and Fort Valley DamsLos Angeles engineers & geologist / John Carollo Engineers (1932)

1969 – Central Arizona Project City submitted expression of

interest letter (15,040 AF/yr @ $32.50/AF or $132/AF in 2010)

Lower Lake Mary - 1905


66

1972 – Harshbarger & Corollo

� Upper East Clear Creek well field (~8,000 AF @ $4,250/AF)

� Canyon Diablo well field (~8,000 AF @ $3,644/AF)

� Redwall Aquifer well field (~8,000 AF @ $1,480/AF)

Wilkins Dam site

� Effluent Reuse� Lake Mary Lining

(1,600 AF @$5,905/AF)

� Mogollon Mesa Project (18,400 AF/ 12,648/AF)

� Weather Modification (211 AF @ $1,387/AF)

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77

2006 – North Central Arizona Water Supply Study

� Lake Powell – Colorado River

� Lake Mead – Colorado River

� Little Colorado River Tributaries – Mogollon Mesa

�� Little Colorado River – High TDS (saline)

Groundwater

� Redwall – Muav Aquifer

� Red Gap Ranch – Coconino Aquifer

Regulatory FrameworkRegulatory Framework

88

� Safe Drinking Water Act & Clear Water Act

� AzPDES & Aquifer Protection Permits

� Adequate Water Supply Rules

� Underground Storage & Recovery Rules

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Regulatory FrameworkRegulatory FrameworkWater RightsWater Rights

99

� Prior Appropriation doctrine (first in time, first in right)

� Little Colorado River Adjudication State court to determine scope, extent & priority of federal reserved water claims (includes all City water supplies)

� Gila River Adjudication only Woody Mountain well field

� Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement (Navajo – Hopi) on-going since mid 1990s

Historic drinking water use Historic drinking water use –– GPCDGPCDGallons per Capita per DayGallons per Capita per Day

1010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

TOTAL GPCD Peaked at 186 in 1989

Decline of 39%

Low of 113 in 2010

Residential : 58 GPCD – Lowest in State

Non-Residential: 42 GPCD

6

Historic water use Historic water use Utility billing data (2003 Utility billing data (2003 –– 2010)2010)

Summary Eight Year Water Consumption Averages

Single Family Housing Units 212 GPHD

Multi Family Attached Housing Units 173 GPHD

Apartment Complexes 160 GPHD

Industrial/Institutional Uses 5251 GPAD

Commercial Uses 861 GPAD

Hotel Room Use 106 GPD

Modular Neighborhood 164 GPHD

GPHD gallons per house per dayGPAD gallons per acre per dayGPD gallons per day

Flagstaff’s Flagstaff’s “Bucket” of “Bucket” of Water SuppliesWater Supplies

100-Year - sustainable volumes

+ groundwater flow computer modeling +

Locally Derived Water Supplies

Locally Derived

- Groundwater 8,800 AF/year

- Surface water 2,242 AF/year

- Reclaimed water 5,800 AF/year

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Looking to the FutureLooking to the Future

� Scenario Planning: not about predicting the FUTURE, describe multiple futures that may be plausible

� 2 Methodologies: Population Projections and Land Use based upon voter approved Regional Plan

Purpose: estimate “Build-out” water

demands, compare to existing bucket of supplies, identifya deficit or need = propose solutions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

2062

2064

2066

2068

2070

2072

2074

2076

2078

2080

Additional water

12,100 AF/year

Historical Growth Rate and Water UseTotal GPCD = 114

Estimated time when new growth exceeds existing sustainable supplies

POPULATION PROJECTION

METHOD Maximum Build-out

Population

180,000

Base caseScenario 1

Groundwater 8,800 AF/year *includes 1,150 AF/year recovered reclaimed

Surface water 2,242 AF/year *

23,100

TIME

Acre-feet

Normal Year Water Supply

* Sustainable volume estimated from USBR, 2006

8

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

2062

2064

2066

2068

2070

2072

2074

2076

2078

2080

Historical Growth Rate and 20% new Water ConservationTotal GPCD = 91




Population

180,000

Base caseScenario 2


Surface water 2,242 AF/year *

23,100

TIME

Acre-feet

Normal Year Water Supply

Additional Water7,800 AF/year


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

2062

2064

2066

2068

2070

2072

2074

2076

2078

2080

Surface Water Impacted due to Prolonged Drought




Population

180,000

Base caseScenario 2


23,100

TIME

Acre-feet

Dry Year – Climate ChangeWater Supply

Additional Water9,900 AF/year

surface water reduced


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Land Use MethodLand Use MethodUndeveloped Land remaining * Historic water use per land useUndeveloped Land remaining * Historic water use per land use

Undeveloped

Land

Residential/Commercial7,686 acres

Build-out Water Needs:

16,500 AF/year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

AC

RE

FE

ET

YEAR

POTABLE

RECLAIMED

Enrollment

13,443

Enrollment

14,766

Enrollment

17,529

Northern Arizona University

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Scenario Planning ResultsScenario Planning Results8 alternate futures: 8 alternate futures: 1 common theme1 common theme

Land Use MethodRegional Plan

16,500 AF/year(build-out)

9,450 AF/year

Scenario 1 – base case

Scenario 2 – modified Ind.

14,300 AF/year

9,900 AF/year (build-out)

7,800 AF/year (100 years)

4,700 AF/year (100 years)

[new commercial low water use]

[ “no new conservation]

Additional Water Needs

Scenario 1

[ “base case” no new conservation - drought]

Scenario 2

[ 20% new conservation - drought]

Population Method

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Historic Growth Rate

Slow Growth Rate [ no new conservation - drought]

[ 20% new conservation - drought]

Today

Historic Water Use Scenario 3 – modified ASLD 14,030 AF/year

Future Water Needs TargetDemand Mgt and/or Supply Augmentation

12,000 AF/ Year

Future Water Supply Options?Future Water Supply Options?

2020

Locally Derived� Additional Water Conservation [< 20% Total < 91 GPCD

& Residential < 48 GPCD]

� New groundwater wells

� Increase reclaimed water use [recharge/recovery and direct use]

Imported� Red Gap Ranch groundwater

� Colorado River water

� Western Navajo Pipeline

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Locally DerivedLocally DerivedWater Conservation Water Conservation –– Rainwater HarvestingRainwater Harvesting

2121

New Buildings – Cisterns & Rain Barrels

� Regional Plan undeveloped lands Total Roof Top (685 ac)and # of new single family homes (17,100)

� 30-year historical precipitation from Pulliam Airport (22.5 in/year)� Size cistern to capture 1” rainfall or 50 gallon rain barrels

Cisterns - future roof tops could capture

232 AF/year($4,963/AF)

Rain Barrels – future homes

93 AF/year($1,704/AF)

Locally DerivedLocally DerivedWater Conservation Water Conservation –– Composting ToiletsComposting Toilets

2222

New Buildings

� HET 1.3 gallon/flush composting toilet (1 per house)� Clivus Multrum toilet - $6,135 and 6 ounces / flush� Saves 1.25 gallon/flush or 5,019 gallons / year� Regional Plan - # of new single family homes (17,100)

Potential Water Savings

565 AF/year($1,352/AF)1860s

“earth closet”

2010

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Locally DerivedLocally DerivedNew Groundwater Supply WellsNew Groundwater Supply Wells

2323

Estimated New Water Well

716 AF/year (493 GPM)($830/AF)

Based upon sustainable volume of groundwater within Coconino Aquifer – no mining of water supply

(Total withdrawal = natural + artificial recharge)

Fort Tuthill well drilling

Locally DerivedLocally DerivedReclaimed Water (recharge/recovery)Reclaimed Water (recharge/recovery)

2424

Estimated New Groundwater Augmentation

4,480 AF/year($974/AF pilot test)

Increased treatment @ Rio WRF to remove Pharmaceuticals & Endocrine Disrupting Compounds

then recharge via Rio de Flag

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Imported SuppliesImported SuppliesRed Gap RanchRed Gap Ranch

2525

Estimated New Groundwater Supply

12,000 AF/year($3,857/AF)

Develop Well field, Booster pumps, Storage and Pipeline to Flagstaff

Imported SuppliesImported SuppliesWestern Navajo Pipeline and Western Navajo Pipeline and

Colorado River supplyColorado River supply

2626

New Surface Water Supply

8,000 AF/year(???/AF)

� Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement� non-Indians may elect to participate to upsize

and extend south from Cameron

� USBR Coconino Plateau Feasibility Study

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Future Water Supply Options Future Water Supply Options

Preliminary Estimates of the Volume of Water and their Cost Preliminary Estimates of the Volume of Water and their Cost

(over a 10(over a 10--Year Period)Year Period)

DRAFT DRAFT

Volume ofVolume of Cost ofCost of

Water Water WaterWater Upfront CostUpfront Cost

Water SourceWater Source (AF/year) (AF)(AF/year) (AF) to Customerto Customer

1.1. Existing Cost of Water (Existing Cost of Water (1st half 1st half FY11)FY11)

Groundwater Groundwater $978$978

Lake Mary WTP Surface Water Lake Mary WTP Surface Water $318$318

2.2. Water Conservation Water Conservation –– Active Rainwater HarvestingActive Rainwater Harvesting

new Residential (cisterns)new Residential (cisterns) 285285 $5,500$5,500 $3,600$3,600

new Residential (rain barrels)new Residential (rain barrels) 51 51 $1,704 $100$1,704 $100

new Commercial (cisterns) new Commercial (cisterns) 3333 $2,650$2,650 $4,720$4,720

new Institutional (cisterns)new Institutional (cisterns) 20 20 $2,546$2,546 $4,939$4,939

existing existing buildings (cisterns)buildings (cisterns) 610610 ?????? ??? ???

999 999 AF/yrAF/yr $4,9634,963




DRAFT DRAFT

Volume ofVolume of Cost ofCost of

Water Water WaterWater Upfront CostUpfront Cost

Water SourceWater Source (AF/year) (AF)(AF/year) (AF) to Customerto Customer

3.3. Water Conservation Water Conservation -- OtherOther

Hot Water ReHot Water Re--circulating pumpcirculating pump 191191 $1,358$1,358 $130$130

Composting ToiletsComposting Toilets 263263 $1,352$1,352 $5,885$5,885

Incinerating ToiletsIncinerating Toilets 342342 $1,290$1,290 $1,860 $1,860

High Efficiency Clothes WasherHigh Efficiency Clothes Washer 191191 $505$505 $993$993

Turf (grass) removalTurf (grass) removal 1,5001,500 $297$297 $2,300$2,300

High Efficiency Toilets (1.3 gal)High Efficiency Toilets (1.3 gal) 7373 $25$25 $173$173

retrofits 1980 to 1994retrofits 1980 to 1994

2,650 AF/Yr2,650 AF/Yr

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DRAFT DRAFT

Volume ofVolume of Cost Cost ofof

Water Water WaterWater

Water SourceWater Source (AF/year) (AF) (AF/year) (AF)

4.4. Imported and Other water suppliesImported and Other water supplies

Indirect Reclaimed Water ReuseIndirect Reclaimed Water Reuse 4,4804,480 $974$974

New Groundwater wellNew Groundwater well 716716 $830$830

Red Gap RanchRed Gap Ranch 12,00012,000 $3,857$3,857

Western Navajo PipelineWestern Navajo Pipeline 8,0008,000 $???$???

Colorado River supplyColorado River supply 8,0008,000 $3,000$3,000

Methodology to Calculate & Compare the Methodology to Calculate & Compare the Cost Cost of of Each Each NNew Water Supply ew Water Supply

3030

Utility Rebate – Reduced electrical costs to Utility (10-yr)

Volume of water City avoids delivering (10-yr)

$100 - $91.46

0.34 AF

For example: HET Toilet with a $100 rebate

= $25/AF

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What Next?What Next?

3131

� Completed Internal City review & comments Jan & Feb 2011

� Water Commission & Sustainability Commission Feb 17th / April 13, 2011

� Coconino Plateau Water Advisory Council March 25, 2011

� F 3 Board of Directors April 21, 2011

� N. Arizona Homebuilders Association May 11, 2011

� Chamber Economic Development Committee May 25, 2011

� Other Selected Community Stakeholder Groups

� City Council

www.flagstaff.az.gov \Departments \ Utilities \ Projects 2011

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Utilities Integrated Master Plan - Arizona