A Topic to Enhance Leadership and Management

Deans of Science Forum, 30 October 2015

UWC Institute of Post-School Studies

Nico Cloete Johann Mouton Charles Sheppard

Presentation

1. The Context of the Fees Crisis

2. The Doctorate

Context of the Fees Crisis

1. Shift in funding

2. Low Percentage of GDP allocated to higher education

3. Differentiated Fee Structure required

4. What to do?

Higher education income sources, ZAR (billion)

2000 20130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

15.9321.21

7.80 17.83

8.78 14.26

Third stream

Student fees

Government

Third stream

Student fees

Government

24%

49%

33%

40%

27% 27%

Source: DHET, Financial Statements in Annual reports submitted by Universities

5

State budget for universities and R&D as % of GDP

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/130.50%

0.55%

0.60%

0.65%

0.70%

0.75%

0.80%

0.85%

0.90%

0.95%

1.00%

State budget for universities as a % of GDPState budget for R&D as % of GDP

Source: R&D data: Mouton J (2015) A Research Innovation Framework; HE data: Charles Sheppard

Cu

ba

Fin

lan

d

No

rwa

y

Ma

laysi

a

Gh

an

a

US

A

Se

ne

ga

l

Au

stra

lia

Ind

ia

Arg

en

tin

a

Bra

zil

Ch

ile

So

uth

A

fric

a0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

4.47

2.182.04

1.761.44 1.39 1.38 1.24 1.20 1.15

0.95 0.930.71

Expenditure on higher education as % of GDP, 2012

Compiled by Charles SheppardSource: OECD 2010

Context of the Fees Crisis

1. It could be more efficient to give Institutions greater proportion of funding and reduce pressure on fees?

2. Percentage of GDP for Science and Higher Education is too small.

3. HE Budget for 2015/6 is ZAR 30 billion: 1% of GDP = R 41 billion The extra ZAR 11 billion more than covers ZAR 2.6 billion fees shortfall

4. Higher education in SA:

• is too cheap for the rich• too expensive for the middle class• the deserving poor is covered

5. What to do to prevent higher education from becoming like SAA and Eskom with annual bailouts?

Policy Pressures on Doctorate Production in SA

More PhDs

1. Castells – the university as engine of development in the knowledge economy (1991 Kuala Lumpur, World Bank; UWC 2001)

2. Knowledge more important than capital or materials3. Talent, not capital is the primary source of competitive advantage 4. Unprecedented growth – China 50 000 pa, University Sao Paulo more than

the whole SA system - traditional systems US, UK much slower5. Number of doctorates far exceed number of places in US in 1970 50% of

PhD’s got tenure track position, by 2006 15% (100 000 new PhD’s, 15 000 new academic jobs) In Germany only 6% aim for academic position

6. What do they do – finance, research organisations, pastors7. Silicon valley – innovation8. Ms Zuma, (AU commissioner, 2013) – Africa must produce ten’s of

thousands of Phd’s – as long as they stay in Africa.9. NDP 2030 and Naledi Pandor DST Budget speech, July 2014 – SA must

produce 5000 per year and will ask government for R5 billion10. The PhD factories – is it time to stop? (Cyranoski; Nature, 2011)

Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2012

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

5,152

6,354

9,1049,994

13,964

685 834 1,104 1,1821,878

Enrolments Graduates

Average shares of the doctoral enrolments in the various fields of study (1996-2012)

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

Mangosuthu

Vaal

Walter Sisulu

Venda

Central

Durban

Limpopo

Cape Peninsula

Zululand

Fort Hare

Tshwane

Rhodes

Western Cape

Nelson Mandela

Free State

Johannesburg

Witwatersrand

South Africa

North West

KwaZulu-Natal

Cape Town

Pretoria

Stellenbosch

0 50 100 150 200 250 3000

2

3

4

5

6

17

24

28

43

44

67

75

86

94

109

150

152

154

177

199

200

240

13Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

14Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

Progress of 2006 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years by cluster

Vaal MangosuthuSouth Africa

Walter SisuluVenda

LimpopoFort Hare

Cape PeninsulaCentral

WitwatersrandDurban

KwaZulu-NatalRhodes

TshwaneNorth West

PretoriaNelson Mandela

ZululandFree State

JohannesburgCape Town

Western CapeStellenbosch

0%

25%25%26%

33%34%34%35%

45%46%

50%51%51%52%52%52%52%

54%

55%56%

60%65%

100%0%

75%75%74%

67%66%66%65%

55%54%

50%49%49%48%48%48%48%

46%

45%44%

40%35%

Graduates as % of new doctoral intake of 2006 after 7 years % drop outs or incomplete after 7 years

16

Summary of progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students after 7 years by fields of study

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

17Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

18

Progression from bachelors to honours

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

19

Students’ primary source of support (2013)

Source: ??? Compiled by Charles Sheppard

African/

Coloured/Indian

White

HONOURS

Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner) 41% 70%

Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF) 33% 30%

Personal earnings/savings 31% 37%

MASTERS

Personal earnings/savings 38% 47%

Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF) 31% 41%

Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner) 23% 34%

Employer reimbursement/assistance 23% (18%)

DOCTORAL

Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF) 42% 49%

Personal earnings/savings 34% 42%

NRF scholarship 33% 46%

Doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012)

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

58

154

298

384

821

17 36 50 56

100

23

53102 97 142

587 591

654 645

816

African Coloured Indian White

Black doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

Mangosuthu

Walter Sisulu

Vaal

Central

Venda

Durban

Limpopo

Cape Peninsula

Zululand

Tshwane

Rhodes

Fort Hare

Free State

North West

Nelson Mandela

Johannesburg

Western Cape

Pretoria

Witwatersrand

South Africa

Cape Town

Stellenbosch

KwaZulu-Natal

0 50 100 150 200 250 3000

2

2

3

4

4

16

19

26

33

34

41

42

42

51

52

62

83

92

94

98

107

138

African doctoral graduates by nationality and gender

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

23

Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012)

Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education

African female PhD graduates from South Africa and the rest of Africa by field of study and nationality (2012)

24Source: HEMIS. Compiled by Charles Sheppard

Field of study South Africa Rest of Africa Total

Natural sciences 23 22.1% 52 38.2% 75 31.3%

Engineering and technology 3 2.9% 7 5.1% 10 4.2%

Health sciences 20 19.2% 13 9.6% 33 13.8%

Business, economic and management sciences

6 5.8% 9 6.6% 15 6.3%

Education 22 21.2% 11 8.1% 33 13.8%

Humanities and social sciences 30 28.8% 44 32.4% 74 30.8%

Total 104 100.0% 136 100.0% 240 100.0%

South Africa a PhD Bargain 1. SA has 5 Universities in Shanghai top 500

2. Full time research PhD Costs• UK (Bath)– $21 450 fees (foreigners) + $18 000 living = $46 050 • US (Berkeley) - $31 900 fees + $23 000 living = $54 900• US (NYU ) - $41 300 fees + $26 000 living = $67 300• SA (US) - $2000 +$1000 (foreigners) + $10 000 living = $13 000

SA three times cheaper than Bath, four times cheaper than Berkeley and five times cheaper than NYU

3. Golden triangle – Efficiency, Transformation Quality (perceived)

4. But the Africans from the rest of Africa are not SA Africans, not black, not disadvantaged or not “ours” (nationalism or middle class xenophobia?)

5. Too few doctorates at African flagship universities

Variables used in the analysis of a PhD Production Model

Growth Measured in terms of the average annual growth rate for the period 2008 to 2012. This shows particularly the impact of the funding framework which provides huge financial incentives for enrolling and the production of PhD graduates

Efficiency Two indicators were used for measuring efficiency: Measured in terms of student throughput/ completion rates. For this

analysis it was measured as the % of the 2006 cohort graduating after 7 years.

Ratio of the number of PhD graduates to the number of academic staff with doctorates in the year2012

Transformation Two indicators were used for measuring transformation: Number of Black (African, Coloured, Asian) PhDs produced in 2012 Number of Women PhDs produced in 2012

Statistical analysis by Prof Amanda Lourens (IDSC)

Tough Policy Choices

1. Should the seven institutions in Group One (30% of the universities in the system) be regarded as having an ‘embedded research culture’ with strong doctoral programmes and what are the policy levers for further strengthening such universities?

2. Should the ten institutions in Group 2 be encouraged to develop and expand their research and doctoral education capacities, while this would develop the broader system, it would be against the international trend of concentration on a smaller group of institutions.

3. Should the six institutions that produce one percent of the doctoral graduates be allowed to continue to offer doctoral programmes?

4. Should the expensive fulltime programmes be distributed across all institutions or concentrated in the most efficient universities with the highest supervisory capacity?

5. Should institutions that are producing the most black and women graduates be given preference when it comes to allocating the proposed fulltime doctoral education positions?

Nico Cloete Ian Bunting Charles Sheppard &François van Schalkwyk

Data from CHET, CREST & African HE Open Datawww.chet.org.za/data/african-he-opendata