Validating an Interregional Travel Model: A Case Study in California

Nicholas J. LineschGiovanni Circella

Urban Land Use and Transportation Center Institute of Transportation Studies

University of California, Davis

TRB Planning Applications – 2011.05.08

Modeling

Inputs Models OutputsZone System Short Distance

Personal Travel Model(SDPTM)

Road NetworkTransit Network

PopulationEmploymentOther Zonal Properties

Long Distance Personal Travel Model

(LDPTM)

Short Distance Commercial Vehicle

Model(SDCVM)

Long Dist. Commercial Vehicle Model

(LDCVM)

External Travel Model(ETM)

Loaded Network

Travel Times and Costs

Summary Travel Statistics

Maps

Graphs

Trip Tables

Trip Lists

Data Flows

Data collection

Data processing

Data management

Data distribution

Feedback and assessment

Data Information Knowledge*Idea from Russell Ackoff

475

74

52 10

40 SDPTMSDCVMLDPTMLDCVMEXT

MPO InterregionalLong Distance

Intra-MPO travel

Inter-MPO travel

16.6%16.2%

Definition: A long distance trip in the CSTDM is one that is greater than 100 miles*>50 miles for commercial vehicles

Definition: An MPO interregional trip is any trip that crosses an MPO boundary

Truck StationsTSN StationsPeMS Detectors

Statewide Count Database 2008

WIM Stations

Theory

Theory

Model Validation: Counts vs. VMT?

Discussion

• Can VMT be used for further model validation?

• Is this strategy of VMT estimation helpful for policy involving GHG reduction strategies?

Nicholas J. Lineschnjlinesch@ucdavis.eduModeler, Graduate StudentUrban Land Use and Transportation CenterUniversity of California, Davis

Thank you