VA/NC High Speed Rail: Benefits and Challenges

January 9, 2012

Trip Pollard

Virginia Rail Policy Institute

HSR Benefits

• Multiple benefits

• Many assumptions and variables (e.g. speed, ridership, route, vehicle type)

• Get it right and get it going to maximize benefits

Market DemandAmtrak FY11 highest ridership ever

50% increase in VA in past 5 years

VRE grew 12% FY10-11

New services exceed expectations

Source: DRPT

Market Demand

Top 3 state supported passenger rail services highest % ridership increase in US in FY11 all in NC and VA-Piedmont (40.2%)-DC-Lynchburg (28.5%)-DC-Newport News (19.1%)

Source: DRPT

Population Growth

• Population growth in SE much faster than US; projected to continue rapid increase

Many areas with the highest driving rates per capita are in the SEHSR corridor (Raleigh, Charlotte, Fredericksburg in top 10 in US)

Congestion among worst in U.S.

Annual time and fuel costs hurt individuals and businesses

Defense – Hampton Roads/DC

Job Access/Reduced

Congestion Costs

Airport Delay

• Air travel and delay within the corridor increased rapidly

• Atlanta 4th worst of 30 major airports in US in 2009, 77% on time departure; Charlotte 82%

Source: Brookings Institute 2009

Costs to Taxpayers; Limits; Need Choices

Market/Demographic Changes- Aging

Population

© GRTC Transit System

Economic Benefits: Jobs and Competitiveness

• Building/upgrading SEHSR corridor to 90-110 mph estimated create or sustain 228,000 jobs

• Attract and retain businesses and employees

• Business leaders “are recognizing that quality of life directly affects economic prosperity”

• Quality of life key selling point

Economic Benefits- Development, Revitalization,

TOD

Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners

Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners

Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners

Energy Benefits

• Over 5 billion gallons of motor fuels were consumed in VA and 5.4 billion in NC in 2010

• Economic (business and individual cost, trade deficit), environmental, national security issue

• “Overreliance on oil in the transportation sector is the Achilles heel of our national security.”– Military Advisory Board

Energy Benefits

• Auto 43% more and air 27% more BTUs per passenger mile than intercity rail

Automobile Airplane IntercityRail0

5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

BTUs Per Passenger Mile (2008)

Health/Environmental Benefits

• Vehicle pollution can cause pain when inhaling, shortness of breath, coughing, headaches, asthma attacks

• Children and the elderly most vulnerable

• Average 112 violations ozone health standards/yr in VA 1990-2010 (over 80 in 2010; over 60 in 2011)

Adapted from CCAP/CNT 2006

Energy and Emissions Benefits

• Petersburg to DC estimated to eliminate 13 million auto trips, save 467 million gallons of fuel, 2.9 million tons CO2 emissions, and 13,500 tons NOx over 30 years

Environmental Benefits

• Other estimates even more ambitious. CCAP and CNT: Full buildout SEHSR could divert 18% of air travel in corridor, eliminate over 392 million tons of CO2 emissions annually, and over 180 million tons annually from autos.

• Land Development:– Southeast has seen most acres developed in

US– Development increase much faster than

population– HSR/local transit can spur mixed use

communities, TOD

Reduced Sprawl

© Charles Shoffner

SEHSR Potential Costs

• Land use (direct and indirect)

• Energy• Emissions• Water and

wetlands

Keys to Maximize Benefits

• Connections– SE – Network not segments– Extension/link NE Corridor

Keys to Maximize Benefits

• Transit, light rail, bike/ped network and connections to stations

• Central station location• Land use around station

©Cliffords Photography

Keys to Maximize Benefits

• Electrification (and source), alternative fuels, more efficient diesel engines

Getting There?

• Attacks on HSR• Analysis/planning• Funding HSR and

other alternatives (federal, state, regional, local)

• Land use (esp. local but key state role)

• Focus on benefitsSource: DRPT