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Vancouver, Washington (USA)
WEST COAST OUTLOOK
2
PNW Export CompaniesPNW=Columbia River District (CRD)+Puget Sound (PS)
United Grain Corp (UGC) Vancouver, WA
Pacificor LLC. Portland, OR T-5 Kalama, WA
Louis Dreyfus Corp (LDC) Odoc, OR Seattle, WA
Temco Irving, OR Kalama, WA Tacoma, WA
Export Grain Terminal (EGT) Longview, WA
Agri Processing Inc. (AGP) Grays Harbor, WA
Puget Sound
Columbia River
PNW “Practical” Capacity Terminal Est. Storage
Capacity (MT)Est. Thru Put Capacity (MT)
Expansion
United Grain Corp 220,000 4,500,000 2012: VIP, corn and soya
Pacificor-Columbia Export Terminal
130,000 4,300,000 2014: storage capacity
Pacificor -Kalama Export 95,000 8,900,000 2012: shipping bins, belts
EGT 130,000 6,700,000 2011: New Terminal
Temco-Kalama 150,000 4,500,000 2014: Ship dock, rail pit, shipping bins, belts
Temco-Tacoma 85,000 5,500,000 n/a
Temco-Irving 60,000 2,000,000 n/a
LDC O-Dock 60,000 1,200,000 2015: cleaner, shipping bins
LDC Seattle 120,000 5,200,000 n/a
Total 1,050,000 42,800,000
PNW Exports by Commodity (MMT)
Source: USDA
02/0303/04
04/0505/06
06/0707/08
08/0909/10
10/1111/12
12/1313/14
14/15
15/16 Proj.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Wheat Corn Soya
PNW Labor Contracts
Terminal Contract expiration
Pacificor, Kalama Wa July 2014
EGT, Longview Wa May 2017
Pacificor/CET, Portland Or May 2018
United Grain CorpVancouver Wa
May 2018
Temco Kalama Wa May 2018
Temco Tacoma Wa May 2018
Temco Irving Portland Or May 2018
LDC Portland Or May 2018
LDC Seattle Wa May 2018
PMA (Pacific Maritime Association) June 2019
UGC Contract Negotiation with ILWU
Dates Event
Sept 2012 UGC labor contract expires with ILWU /// ILWU continues to work.
Dec 2012 ILWU rejects Last, Best and Final Offer /// ILWU continues to work.UGC experiences slow downs and equipment failures.
Feb 2013 UGC locks ILWU out ///UGC continues to operate with MGMT labor.
Aug 27 2013
through
June 13 2014
-WSDA / FGIS refuses grading services over safety concerns of crossing picket line, production is halted.-UGC provides safe transportation across picket line to WSDA/FGIS for 10 months through Police escorts and helicopter services.-FGIS will not define safety issues to be resolved / Washington State Governor Inslee stops Police escorts. Lock out moves into political arena.
Aug 12 2014 ILWU and Grain Group ratify contract
Dec Feb
Apr Jun
Aug OctDec Fe
bApr Ju
nAug Oct
Dec Feb
AprJu
ne0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Metric Tons per Hour
Metr
ic T
ons p
er
Hour
Lock-out
Vancouver Loading Performance - Vessel
Dec Feb
Apr Jun
Aug OctDec Fe
bApr Ju
nAug Oct
Dec Feb
AprJu
ne0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Cars per hour
# o
f C
ars
Lock-out
Vancouver Unloading Performance - Rail
Vancouver Unloading Performance - Barge
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
ST per hour
# o
f B
arg
es
Lock-out
PNW Logistically Fluid Through 2015-2016
No Labor Issues Railroads have excess capacity
2012-2016 railroads spend over 25 billion a year in improvements
BNSF shuttle auctions trading at tariff values
Ports have excess capacity Strong Dollar negatively impacting PNW Low crude prices negatively impacting PNW
Ocean Freight to SE Asia
Dec-0
9
May
-10
Oct-1
0
Mar
-11
Aug-
11
Jan-
12
Jun-
12
Nov-1
2
Apr-1
3
Sep-
13
Feb-
14
Jul-1
4
Dec-1
4
May
-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
USGPNWSpread
Gulf PNW Spread to China
2/12
/09
8/6/
09
1/28
/10
7/22
/10
1/13
/11
7/7/
11
12/2
9/11
6/21
/12
12/1
3/12
6/6/
13
11/2
8/13
5/22
/14
11/1
3/14
5/7/
150.005.00
10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00
Spread
Spread
Factors Affecting Gulf / PNW Spread to CHINA
Ocean Freight / Crude Prices Soybean Quality Rail Service to PNW / Barge Freight to
NOLA Capacity Constraints / Excess Capacity Transit Time to China
#2 YSB C&F Prices to China
Protein
Oil July 15thOCT trade
Discount to Brazil
Historical discount to Brazil
China 14/15 Imports MT
China 14/15 Imports %
Brazil 35% 18.5% 1.81 37.2 49.2%
USG 35% 18.5% 1.71 .10 .05 to .10 18 23.8%
Argentine 34% 18.5% 1.33 .48 .25 to .30 7.9 10.45%
PNW 34% 18.5% 1.33 .48 .20 to .25 11.71 15.1%
Canada 34% 18.5% 1.07 .74 .45 to .50 .79 1.05%
USD/BRL
#2 YSB C&F Prices to China
FRT$Mt
7-15OCT
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
PNW 34% pro
$18.5
1.33 1.55 1.55 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50
USG 35% pro
$33 1.71 1.93 1.88 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.75 1.70 1.70
Argentine34%
$31 1.33 N/A N/A 1.58 1.58 1.61 1.71 1.75 .98
Brazil35% pro
$22.5
1.81 N/A 2.10 2.20 NA N/A 1.50 1.30 1.10
Canada33.5%
$18.5
1.07 1.25 1.30 1.30
Chinese ImportsSource: RJO
