VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20140708

www.varengoldbankfx.com – Promotional Document

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Good morning from sunny Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. Yesterday the

Brazilian police have arrested the chief executive of a Fifa partner company as part of

investigations into illegal sale of World Cup tickets. Last week had broken up an international

gang which is accused of illegally reselling tickets and they earned as much as $90m per

tournament and could have operated at four World Cups.

However, we wish you a successful trading day!

Market Review – Fundamental Perspective

Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index

also fell 0.4 percent. After U.S. reports had showed a strengthening jobs market the market

gauge the timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate increased. It is estimated that U.S policy

makers will rise their benchmark rate in the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first quarter of

2016. The U.S. interest rate is in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to

support the economy. The Fed is going to release the minutes of its June 17-18 meeting

tomorrow. As a result the USD dropped 0.2 percent versus the JPY, which is the most for more

than a week. The USD/JPY touched 101.86 and the EUR/USD gained 0.1 percent to 1.3605.

The EUR/JPY tumbled 0.1 percent to 138.58. After the U.S. treasury 10-year note yields had

advanced 10 basis points last week, it declined now three basis points to 2.61 percent.

Economists estimated that the U.K. central bank will leave its benchmark rate at a record low 0.5

percent on July 10. But the market still estimates that the Bank of England will be the first major

central bank to increase interest rates. Beyond that the market assumes that the current rally of

the GBP to a five-year high might soon come to an end as the Federal Reserve moves towards

increasing interest rates. The GBP/USD decreased 0.2 percent to 1.7131 and the EUR/GBP fell

0.3 percent to 0.7940.

Mario Draghi warned Greek Finance Minister that Greece should not assume its reforms have

been completed. Yesterday the finance minsterst met and an official said that further emergency

aid will probably be needed as the government still faces a funding shortfall and is still behind its

commitments to overhaul the economy. But Greece also fought off calls to consider a third

bailout.

http://www.varengoldbankfx.com/


Daily Technical Analysis

AUD/USD (4 Hours)

Since the end of May the currency pair increased inside a bullish trend channel and touched an

eight month high around 0.9505. At this point the pair rebounded and even dropped out of the

channel towards the support line around 0.9327. The narrowing Bollinger bands are indicating

an upcoming strong movement while the CCI is on a high level and assuming an overbought

situation.

Support & Resistance (4 Hours)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

0.93274 0.94423

0.92145 0.95053

N/A N/A



EUR/JPY (4 Hours)

One month ago a trend reversal has started at the support line 137.94 (Fibonacci level 0.0) and

the pair climbed towards the resistance level 139.18 (61.8) but rebounded there. As you can see

the pair trades in a symmetrical triangle and we might see a resumption of the prior trend if the

pair drops below the lower trend line. The decreasing MACD substantiate the assumption.



137.94 138.90

137.70 139.18

N/A 140.02



XAU/USD (4 Hours)

In the middle of the last month the metal fulfilled a steep increase and is since then trading in a

sideways trend between the support line around 1309.1 and the resistance level around 1333.2.

It was able to touch a four month high but decreased again towards the former trend line. A

continuation of the current trend is more than likely if the pair does not start to climb along the

trend line or drops below the close support line.



1309.15 1321.93

1285.63 1333.29

1240.32 N/A



Daily Calendar & Key Events

Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last Survey

08/07/2014 06:00 GE Trade Balance 17.4B 16.2B

08/07/2014 06:00 GE Current Account Balance 18.4B 14.5B

08/07/2014 06:00 GE Exports SA MoM 3.0% -0.4%

08/07/2014 06:00 GE Imports SA MoM 0.1% 0.5%

08/07/2014 06:45 FR Trade Balance 3933M -4250M

08/07/2014 08:30 UK Industrial Production MoM 0.4% 0.3%

08/07/2014 08:30 UK Industrial Production YoY 3.0% 3.2%

08/07/2014 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM 0.4% 0.4%

08/07/2014 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY 4.4% 5.6%

08/07/2014 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Optimism 96.6 97.0

If you have any questions, please contact us for further assistance. 24 hours a day:

German: +49 40 66 86 49 – 96

English: +49 40 66 86 49 – 96

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DISCLAIMER IMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THIS PROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT This document “Daily FX Report” is a promotional document and is created and published by Varengold Bank AG. This Promotional document serves exclusively for information purposes. It is exclusively aimed at German business partners and customers who make their own investment decisions at their own risk notwithstanding the contents of this promotional document. Investment decisions should be made on the basis of a preceding consultation with an independent financial advisor and prospectus, but not on the basis of this promotional document. Depending on the individual investor's investment goals, investment horizon or financial situation, the contents of the present promotional document may not be suitable at all or only in part. This promotional document is not aimed at persons with residence and / or place of business and / or branches abroad, particularly in the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Great Britain. This promotional document is for information only and especially does not constitute a public offer, an advice, recommendation or an invitation to submit an offer for purchase or selling of or subscription to securities or other financial instruments. This Promotional document does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation. This promotional document does not constitute a financial analysis. Therefore it does not fulfil the legal requirements ensuring the impartiality of financial analyses. This promotional document is not subject to the prohibition of trades before the publication of financial analyses. With this promotional document no individual investment advisory and / or information relationship with Varengold Bank AG is established. All declarations, statements or assessments included in this promotional document are those of this document's author; they do not imperatively correspond to third party statements. Varengold Bank AG has taken the entire information on which the promotional document is based from sources considered serious and reliable, but without verifying the entire information. This is why Varengold Bank AG does not give promises or guarantees regarding precision, completeness or accuracy of the information or opinions included. Varengold Bank AG does not assume any liability for losses and direct or consequential damage caused by the use and / or distribution of this promotional document and / or associated with the use and /or distribution of this promotional document. The contents of the promotional document correspond to the state of information as of the date of its preparation. It may be outdated on account of future developments without this promotional document having been modified. Any complete or partial reproduction or any other usage and /or distribution of this promotional document and / or its content is forbidden and subject to publisher's prior written consent. Warning notice: Trading the foreign exchange market carry a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss in part or all of an investment and is therefore not suitable for every investor. Any past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future performance. Publisher: Varengold Bank AG Grosse Elbstrasse 27 22767 Hamburg, Germany T+49.40.66 86 49 0 F+49.40.66 86 49 49


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VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20140708