VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20160526

8/16/2019 VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20160526

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www.varengoldbankfx.com – Promotional Document

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our latest Daily FX Report of this week. Japanesestocks rose for a second day as a weaker yen boosts the earnings outlook for exporters and

optimism grows that the U.S. economy can handle higher interest rates. The Topix index jumped

0.9 percent to 1,355.41 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo as about seven shares advanced for each that

fell. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1 percent to 16,926.32. Oil neared $50 a barrel,

trading at the highest level in more than seven months. A Group of Seven leaders’ summit at Ise-

Shima in central Japan starts Thursday.

Anyway, we wish you a successful trading day!

Market Review – Fundamental Perspective

A gauge of the dollar is set for its best month since January 2015 as officials from the Federal

Reserve emphasize that the central bank may increase interest rates as many as three times

this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has climbed 3.2 percent this month, while the odds a

Fed move in June jumped almost three-fold to 34 percent after officials, including the presidents

of the Fed’s regional arms in San Francisco, Boston and Philadelphia, voiced their support for

higher rates. The rally paused on Wednesday as a momentum indicator approached a level that

signals the currency may have moved too far, too fast. Bloomberg’s dollar index, which tracks

the greenback against 10 peers, was little changed as of 9:21 a.m. in Tokyo, after losing 0.2

percent on Wednesday. The currency was at $1.1165 per euro from $1.1155. The yen jumped

0.4 percent to 109.76 against its U.S. peer. While the dollar gauge has advanced for the past

three weeks, caution reigns after policy makers’ pro-tightening comments earlier this year quickly

gave way to rhetoric on slowing U.S. growth. Hedge funds and other large speculators are the

most neutral on the U.S. currency in two years. The tightening talk failed to spark price swings

as a JPMorgan Chase & Co. measure of global foreign-exchange volatility fell to the least since

January.

Traders are now pricing in a 34 percent chance of a June U.S. rate increase, up from 4 percent

at the start of last week. Bets for a July move have jumped to 54 percent from 19 percent.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index slipped less than 0.1 percent. The underlying U.S. equity gauge

rose 0.7 percent on Wednesday, climbing to the highest level in almost a month.


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Daily Technical Analysis

EUREX.FDX (H1)

The german stock index found in the beginning of May a support at around 9782 points. After

reaching this level, bears covered shorts and a strong pullback started but bulls failed to exceed

the 10K level sustainable. Yesterday this resistance could be exceeded sustainable and could be

used now as support.

Support & Resistance (Hourly)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

10100 N/A

9782 N/A

N/A N/A


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USD/SEK (Daily)

This exotic currency pair declined with very strong movements over the last months. While the

greenback slumped down to new lows, the Relative Strength Index were touched three times at

the oversold area, as you can see on the bottom. Bears started catching profits while the value

has fallen below 8 SEK. This constellation could be a very interesting reversal setup.

Support & Resistance (Daily)


7.95 8.35

N/A 8.61

N/A N/A


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USD/JPY (D1)

The major currency weakened over the last six months very sharply versus the Japanese yen.

Until now, the bearish trend is very sustainable but slowed down in this month. If the one

important support around 106.4 JPY stops the bears, it might be possible that a correction will

continue above the next resistance level.

Support & Resistance (Daily)


106.4 110.3

N/A 111.8

N/A N/A


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Daily Calendar & Key Events

Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last Survey

26/05/2016 08:30 UK GDP YoY 2.1% 2.1%

26/05/2016 12:30 US Durables Ex Transportation -0.2% 0.3%

If you have any questions, please contact us for further assistance. 24 hours a day:

German: +49 40 66 86 49 – 96

English: +49 40 66 86 49 – 96

24 h Trading Support: +49 40 66 86 49 – 32

Turkish: +49. 40. 66 86 49 – 0


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DISCLAIMERIMPORTANT NOTIFICATION TO BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CONTENTS OF THISPROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT

This document “Daily FX Report” is a promotional document and is created and published by VarengoldBank AG. This Promotional document serves exclusively for information purposes. It is exclusively aimedat German business partners and customers who make their own investment decisions at their own risknotwithstanding the contents of this promotional document. Investment decisions should be made on thebasis of a preceding consultation with an independent financial advisor and prospectus, but not on thebasis of this promotional document.Depending on the individual investor's investment goals, investment horizon or financial situation, thecontents of the present promotional document may not be suitable at all or only in part. This promotional

document is not aimed at persons with residence and / or place of business and / or branches abroad,particularly in the United States of America, Canada, Japan or Great Britain. This promotional document isfor information only and especially does not constitute a public offer, an advice, recommendation or aninvitation to submit an offer for purchase or selling of or subscription to securities or other financialinstruments. This Promotional document does not constitute investment advice or investmentrecommendation.This promotional document does not constitute a financial analysis. Therefore it does not fulfil the legalrequirements ensuring the impartiality of financial analyses. This promotional document is not subject tothe prohibition of trades before the publication of financial analyses. With this promotional document noindividual investment advisory and / or information relationship with Varengold Bank AG is established.All declarations, statements or assessments included in this promotional document are those of thisdocument's author; they do not imperatively correspond to third party statements. Varengold Bank AG hastaken the entire information on which the promotional document is based from sources considered serious

and reliable, but without verifying the entire information. This is why Varengold Bank AG does not givepromises or guarantees regarding precision, completeness or accuracy of the information or opinionsincluded. Varengold Bank AG does not assume any liability for losses and direct or consequential damagecaused by the use and / or distribution of this promotional document and / or associated with the use and /or distribution of this promotional document. The contents of the promotional document correspond to thestate of information as of the date of its preparation. It may be outdated on account of future developmentswithout this promotional document having been modified. Any complete or partial reproduction or anyother usage and /or distribution of this promotional document and / or its content is forbidden and subjectto publisher's prior written consent.

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VarengoldbankFX Daily FX Report_20160526