Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Hydrologic Model – Implementing in BC Watersheds

VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITY (VIC) HYDROLOGIC MODEL – IMPLEMENTING IN BC WATERSHEDSRecent accomplishments, challenges, and future directions

Katrina E. Bennett,Pacific Climate Impacts

ConsortiumMarkus Schnorbus

Arelia WernerDaniel Caya

David R. Rodenhuis

University of Alaska Fairbanks,30 October, 2009

WHAT IS PCIC? Vision: …to bridge the gap between climate

research and climate applications and make practical information available to government, industry, and the public.

Mission: to quantify the impacts of climate change and variability on the physical environment in Pacific North America.

PCIC HYDROLOGY THEME BC Hydro driven (2010) Four main projects

Climate Overview Hydrologic Modelling Regional Climate

Modelling Synthesis

Study of three major watersheds and one small coastal watershed in British Columbia using the VIC hydrologic model

Impacts of climate change on water resources/reservoir inflows

Future Hydrological Regime

Hyd

ro-

mod

elCoupled Global Climate

Model

GHG Emission Scenarios

RCM

Hyd

rom

odel

How to estimate future hydrology

RCM

RCM

Hydro-model

STAT

RCM

Hydro-model

Delta+ Obs.

Hydro-model

- Bias

VIC HYDROLOGIC MODEL

Macro-scale hydrologic model

Model runs for 1 grid cell at a time, calculates fluxes

No horizontal transfer of flow

Model resolves fluxes at a daily (wb mode) or sub-daily time step (eb mode)

6

Modeling Laboratory(GCM name-version)

Scenario

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (mpi_echam5)

A1B, A2

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

(cccma_cgcm3)

B1, A1B, A2

Hadley / United Kingdom Meteorological Office

(ukmo_hadcm3)

A1B, A2

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl_cm20)

B1, A1B, A2

Community Climate System Model

(ccsm3_20c)

B1, A1B, A2

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

Organization (csiro_3_5_20c)

B1, A1B

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 3000.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

Winter (DJF)

Precipitation (%)

Tem

pera

ture

(de

g C)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 250

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Summer (JJA)

Precipitation (%)

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(deg

C)

BIAS CORRECTED STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

FRASER RIVER BASIN

PEACE RIVER BASINCalibration Validation

BASIN NSLogNS

%VB NS

LogNS

%VB

AKIEC 0.64 0.83 0 0.7 0.9 6BCGMS 0.64 0.81 0 0.8 0.8 11FINAK 0.66 0.87 0 0.8 0.9 13GRAHM 0.71 0.82 0 0.7 0.8 4HALFA 0.58 0.72 1 0.6 0.6 3HALGR 0.57 0.73 0 0.5 0.6 4INGEN 0.76 0.88 0 0.8 0.9 13KWADA 0.61 0.84 0 0.8 0.9 11MESIL 0.84 0.91 0 0.8 0.9 15MOBER 0.77 0.80 0 0.6 0.7 17MURMO 0.73 0.70 1 0.6 0.7 15MURWV 0.76 0.74 0 0.7 0.8 12NATFT 0.91 0.90 0 0.7 0.8 16NATMO 0.92 0.88 0 0.7 0.8 16OMNOS 0.87 0.82 0 0.8 0.8 18OSILI 0.83 0.88 0 0.8 0.9 19OSPIK 0.70 0.86 0 0.7 0.8 8PACKM 0.90 0.83 1 0.8 0.8 7PARMS 0.78 0.76 0 0.8 0.8 8PEACT 0.71 0.83 1 0.8 0.9 10PEAPN 0.64 0.79 1 0.8 0.9 10PINPN 0.79 0.76 2 0.7 0.7 15SUKMO 0.85 0.80 0 0.8 0.7 17

DJF

cgA1B cgA2 cgB1 ecA1B gfA2 haA1B

B1 A1B A2

2080 Runoff Anomaly: Ingenika R.

CAMPBELL RIVER BASINAKIEC.lt.tr.stats -0.637 -0.825 0 -0.681 0.6 1.6 160BCGMS.lt.tr.stats -0.640 -0.810 0 -0.655 67.7 51.2 115FINAK.lt.tr.stats -0.658 -0.870 0 -0.727 10.2 12.6 100GRAHM.lt.tr.stats -0.713 -0.823 0 -0.713 2.5 1.3 101HALFA.lt.tr.stats -0.583 -0.715 1 -0.602 13.1 5.5 108HALGR.lt.tr.stats -0.565 -0.734 0 -0.576 5.6 2.7 96INGEN.lt.tr.stats -0.760 -0.882 0 -0.776 1.1 2.7 196KWADA.lt.tr.stats -0.610 -0.842 0 -0.703 3.1 2.4 118MESIL.lt.tr.stats -0.840 -0.907 0 -0.841 2.7 1.6 171MOBER.lt.tr.stats -0.768 -0.798 0 -0.792 0.9 0.6 66MURMO.lt.tr.stats -0.727 -0.698 1 -0.774 6.9 3.6 108MURWV.lt.tr.stats -0.762 -0.741 0 -0.802 6.5 2.3 100NATFT.lt.tr.stats -0.909 -0.897 0 -0.913 1.5 1.6 62NATMO.lt.tr.stats -0.915 -0.881 0 -0.920 1.7 2.0 98OMNOS.lt.tr.stats -0.869 -0.817 0 -0.877 5.0 3.2 139OSILI.lt.tr.stats -0.825 -0.877 0 -0.825 2.1 1.4 159OSPIK.lt.tr.stats -0.697 -0.864 0 -0.704 5.4 2.1 171PACKM.lt.tr.stats -0.904 -0.828 1 -0.904 0.7 1.2 136PARMS.lt.tr.stats -0.783 -0.756 0 -0.786 1.1 5.5 199PEACT.lt.tr.stats -0.712 -0.827 1 -0.713 86.1 58.2 356PEAPN.lt.tr.stats -0.643 -0.793 1 -0.654 79.7 54.8 309PINPN.lt.tr.stats -0.791 -0.756 2 -0.817 24.4 8.0 168SUKMO.lt.tr.stats -0.853 -0.800 0 -0.853 2.1 2.1 140

AKIEC.lt.tr.stats -0.637 -0.825 0 -0.681 0.6 1.6 160BCGMS.lt.tr.stats -0.640 -0.810 0 -0.655 67.7 51.2 115FINAK.lt.tr.stats -0.658 -0.870 0 -0.727 10.2 12.6 100GRAHM.lt.tr.stats -0.713 -0.823 0 -0.713 2.5 1.3 101HALFA.lt.tr.stats -0.583 -0.715 1 -0.602 13.1 5.5 108HALGR.lt.tr.stats -0.565 -0.734 0 -0.576 5.6 2.7 96INGEN.lt.tr.stats -0.760 -0.882 0 -0.776 1.1 2.7 196KWADA.lt.tr.stats -0.610 -0.842 0 -0.703 3.1 2.4 118MESIL.lt.tr.stats -0.840 -0.907 0 -0.841 2.7 1.6 171MOBER.lt.tr.stats -0.768 -0.798 0 -0.792 0.9 0.6 66MURMO.lt.tr.stats -0.727 -0.698 1 -0.774 6.9 3.6 108MURWV.lt.tr.stats -0.762 -0.741 0 -0.802 6.5 2.3 100NATFT.lt.tr.stats -0.909 -0.897 0 -0.913 1.5 1.6 62NATMO.lt.tr.stats -0.915 -0.881 0 -0.920 1.7 2.0 98OMNOS.lt.tr.stats -0.869 -0.817 0 -0.877 5.0 3.2 139OSILI.lt.tr.stats -0.825 -0.877 0 -0.825 2.1 1.4 159OSPIK.lt.tr.stats -0.697 -0.864 0 -0.704 5.4 2.1 171PACKM.lt.tr.stats -0.904 -0.828 1 -0.904 0.7 1.2 136PARMS.lt.tr.stats -0.783 -0.756 0 -0.786 1.1 5.5 199PEACT.lt.tr.stats -0.712 -0.827 1 -0.713 86.1 58.2 356PEAPN.lt.tr.stats -0.643 -0.793 1 -0.654 79.7 54.8 309PINPN.lt.tr.stats -0.791 -0.756 2 -0.817 24.4 8.0 168SUKMO.lt.tr.stats -0.853 -0.800 0 -0.853 2.1 2.1 140



































































































































































































































































BI 0.01 1.e-5Ds 1.0 1.e-5Ws 1.0 0.05D2 0.3 0.3DSMAX 30.0 0.1PADJ 1.3 0.7

COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN Just starting work on

Columbia Glaciers the biggest

issue Complete similar to

Peace and Campbell Continue with

validation of model outputs

DIRECTIONS FOR PCIC Hydrologic impacts

of changing glacier mass balance

Improved validation of snow process modelling at regional scales

Challenges of downscaling to high elevation, poorly monitored watersheds in BC

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELLING Dynamical downscaling Running RCM at 15 km Zhang (PCIC) + Caya

Music, Braun (Ouranos)

ADDITIONAL MATERIALS

SWE

EVAP

PRECIP.

RUNOFF

Peace RB (at Taylor)

PRECIP.

EVAP

PRECIP.

RUNOFF

SWE

Columbia RB

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Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Hydrologic Model – Implementing in BC Watersheds