VenezuelaMDAW 2013—DCH & MBK

Fast Facts

Population: 29+ million Area: 353K+ square miles Capitol: Caracas World’s 5th largest oil exporter,

massive untapped oil reserves

Background

Was settled by upwards of 1m indigenous persons before Spanish colonization

Was visited by Christopher Columbus in 1498

Spanish colonization began in 1522 Venezuela’s war of independence began in

1811 and was won after Bolivar won the Battle of Carabono in 1821—became part of Bolivar’s Gran Colombia until it broke away to form Venezuela in 1830

Slavery was abolished in 1854

Background

Monroe Doctrine—territory to the south is in America’s “sphere of influence”

Roosevelt Corollary (TDR)—the U.S. will “help” European states settle any conflicts they have with Latin American countries

Good Neighbor policy (FDR)—backed away from interventionism

Background, cont’d

The entire ballgame changed in the 1910s when major oil fields were discovered and developed during the regime of Juan Vicente Gomez

Gomez sold concessions to U.S. and European oil companies

During the post-war era, the government moved to increase its share of oil revenues

Venezuela was a founding member of OPEC (1960)

Oil production was nationalized in the 1970s

Background, cont’d

Hugo Chavez led a failed coup in 1992 Chavez became president in 1999 Chavez pushed reforms that increased state

control of PDVSA—Venezuelan state oil company Chavez accused the U.S. of backing a coup

attempt in 2002 Venezuela has been subject to defense sales

sanctions since 2008 Chavez died in March—Maduro was elected as

his successor The election saw a diplomatic dispute over

alleged U.S. interference

Points of Contention

Oil Venezuelan support for economic

relationships/models outside of the “Washington consensus”

Venezuelan support for adversaries of the U.S.—Cuba, Iran, etc.

Venezuela’s support for “terrorist” groups—FARC, Hezbollah, etc.

Plan Ideas

Democracy assistance—either to the government or to the opposition

Drugs Expand counter-drug cooperation Remove Venezuela from the “non-cooperation” list

Environmental cooperation Leftist-oriented engagement Oil

Allow / enable investment in new Venezuelan exploration and production

Remove oil related sanctions

Advantage Areas

Bolivarianism Good China Displacement Democracy Economy / Diversification Iran Displacement Oil Russia Displacement Terrorism U.S. Credibility / Leadership

Negative Gripes

Topicality Not “engagement” Not “economic”

Counterplans Alternate agent (domestic, international) Engaging government vs. opposition Unconditional vs. conditional

engagement

Negative Gripes, cont’d

Disadvantages Bolivarism / South-South good China influence good Iran encirclement Oil prices (both ways) Russia influence / arms sales good

Kritiks Criticisms of economy-centered epistemologies Criticisms of state-centered epistemologies Marxism

Geopolitics of Oil

Oil pricing—marginal production cost Oil prices have an enormous impact on the

economy and oil access is core source of conflict between states

U.S. policymakers are obsessed with “energy independence” and “energy security”

Energy independence is a myth—oil is a global market

Energy security is a more realistic option—it depends on a) having reliable supply and b) preventing major shocks that spike global prices

Oil, cont’d

Venezuela is a BIG player in current oil politics, and its influence is likely to increase

Peak oil and the transition to “unconventional” and “alternative” fuels

Venezuela as an epicenter for future “heavy oil” production