Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia

13th EMS-ECAM, 09 – 13 September 2013, Reading,UK

Verification results of heat wave warnings in

Croatia

L. Kalin and Z. Vakula

Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia


heat waves...

• July – August 2003 in France

• approx. 70 000 deaths associated with heat stress


warnings...

• a major role of national meteorological services in the future will be associated with weather warnings

• reliable and in-time prediction of high impact weather can provide more efficient mitigation, it can reduce costs and save lives


heat warnings...

• since 2012• Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia• in cooperation with Ministry of Health• issued daily - for the next four days – 8 regions

GREEN No danger

YELLOW Moderate danger

ORANGE High danger

RED Very high danger


criteria...maximum temperature minimum temperature

moderate high very high moderate high very high

Osijek 35.2 36.7 38.8 20.1 21.2 22.9

Zagreb 33.7 35.1 37.1 20.2 21.3 22.9

Karlovac 34.5 35.9 38 20 21.1 22.7

Gospić 32.1 33.4 35.4 17 18 19.6

Rijeka 32.7 33.9 35.5 22.7 23.7 25.1

Knin 35.5 36.9 39 20.5 21.6 23.1

Split 33.9 35.1 36.7 25.8 26.8 28.2

Dubrovnik 32.3 33.2 34.7 25.4 26.3 27.6

if both conditions are met OR a level persists for 3 days

then go one (and only one) level up!


end product

• Issued every day at 11 am

• Delivered to special users


seasonal forecast


summer 2012

• Extremely hot (in many places record breaking)


July forecast/observed

• Operational forecast (for the next day)


August forecast/observed

• Operational forecast (for the next day)


results

• a significant number of days with warning level (observations), particularly on the coast


results

• significant overestimation, not related to lead time

"no danger" observed & forecasted

5852

6662

32

40 4237

05

10152025303540455055606570

Isto

čna

Hrv

atsk

a(O

sije

k)

Sre

dišn

jaH

rvat

ska

(Zag

reb)

Pok

uplje

(Kar

lova

c)

Gor

ska

Hrv

atsk

a(G

ospi

ć)

Unu

traš

.D

alm

acije

(Kni

n)

Sje

vern

iJa

dran

(Rije

ka)

Sre

dnji

Jadr

an(S

plit)

Južn

iJa

dran

(Dub

rovn

ik)

observed day1 day 2 day 3 day 4


results

...particularly for the “very high danger” events

"very high danger" observed & forecasted

4

6

1

3

910

13

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Isto

čna

Hrv

ats

ka(O

sije

k)

Sre

diš

nja

Hrv

ats

ka(Z

ag

reb

)

Po

kup

lje(K

arl

ova

c)

Go

rska

Hrv

ats

ka(G

osp

ić)

Un

utr

aš.

Da

lma

cije

(Kn

in)

Sje

vern

iJa

dra

n(R

ijeka

)

Sre

dn

jiJa

dra

n(S

plit

)

Južn

iJa

dra

n(D

ub

rovn

ik)

observed day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4


results

...still a number of “misses”

"no danger" forecasted, still observed

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Isto

čna

Hrv

ats

ka(O

sije

k)

Sre

diš

nja

Hrv

ats

ka(Z

ag

reb

)

Po

kup

lje(K

arl

ova

c)

Go

rska

Hrv

ats

ka(G

osp

ić)

Un

utr

aš.

Da

lma

cije

(Kn

in)

Sje

vern

iJa

dra

n(R

ijeka

)

Sre

dn

jiJa

dra

n(S

plit

)

Južn

iJa

dra

n(D

ub

rovn

ik)

1. dan 2. dan 3. dan 4. dan


scores

...no evolution with time

POD (PROBABILITY of DETECTION) 1 is best

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4

os zg ka gokn ri st du


scores

...no evolution with time

FALSE ALARM 0 is best

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

day 1 day 2 day 3 day 4

os zg ka go

kn ri st du


summary

• DHMZ issues heat warnings since 2012• based on objective/climatological guidance (Tmin and

Tmax)• positive societal impact • forecasts slight overbiased, particularly for the higher

danger levels – reasonable?• no significant dependance on lead time?• system slightly “oversensitive” – leads to spatial-

temporal incoherence (reflects on the verif. scores)• provide feed-back to the forecasters• improve forecasting system for the next seasons


Thank you for your attention!

Documents

Verification results of heat wave warnings in Croatia