VERITE: Conference on Business Intelligence

Zentrum für Innovation und Technik in NRW

VERITE:

Conference on Business Intelligence

„For Intelligent Organizations:

methods and tools of Business Intelligence“

16th October 2003 in Vitoria, Basque Country Spain


The Role of foresight in a new regionalised innovation policySession D: BI and policies

Susanne Jakobs and Michael Guth,

ZENIT GmbH, Germany

VERITE Conference on Business Intelligence, 16th October 2003, Vitoria, Spain 3


Structural change, innovation policy and the role of foresight

NRWNRW

The case of Nordrhein-Westfalen (Germany) as an example for regions which are facing severe industrial structural change



18 million inhabitants (82 million in Germany)

NRW’s industrial core region is the so called ruhr area (Ruhrgebiet)

The regional background

NRWNRW



Position 14 in the world‘s GDP-ranking

Position 14 Position 16 Position 19

Figures: billion Euro, as of 2001459.6

NRW

418.7 411.5

346.1300.1

276.2 254.2 234.6210.7 195.0 193.5 184.7

Nether-lands

Australia Russia Argentina Switzer-land

Belgium Sweden Austria Poland SaudiArabia

Norway

NRWNRW



For a good century the driver for economic growth and prosperity based on coal and steel

The ruhr area:

NRW - the ruhr areaNRW - the ruhr area



Since the late 1950ies a region facing problems ofstructural change with today insufficient and underaverage growth rates and high unemployment:

average NRW 04/03 9.3 % average ruhr area 04/02 11.9 % highest district ruhr area 04/02 17.8 %

The ruhr area:

NRW - the ruhr areaNRW - the ruhr area



From protectionism towards future orientated regional fields of competence

Standard policy; backward orientation

Regionalised structural policy, still past orientated

Future orientated cluster approach

Regionalisation, SME, Innovation & TT infrastructures

Infrastructural endowment & emprovemt of environmt

Co-financing from EU structural funds

Future of SFs?

Protectionism

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Strengthening the strength

Policy EvaluationPolicy Evaluation



15 economic regions within NRW framework for territorial development

and social dialogue regional co-operation in so-called

regional conferences regional development plans prioritisation of major projects of

structural importance

Regionalised structural policy (RSP)

NRWNRW



Results RSP turned out to be an efficient tool concerning

the regional allocation of public funds New forms of active participation of relevant actors

were introduced Regional know-how and capacities were mobilised

However .....


NRWNRW



Problem pressure remaining in the regions Systematic deficits became evident: past orientation,

limited partnerships, lack of future vision New challenges occurring: globalisation, innovation and

competitive pressure, Eastern enlargement of EU, public budget deficits leading to reduced budgets for structural policies

Introduction of a new future orientated policy approach: Competence fields


ChallengesChallenges



Shift from “overcoming weaknesses” towards strengthening the strengths

From backward looking towards future orientation

From RSP to competence fields (CF)




regional networks based on voluntary co-operation in a specific thematic field of economic relevance

the thematic focus is based on existing industrial thematic strengths

covering major steps in the value adding chain high degree of interaction and communication amongst

the actors

What‘s a competence field (CF)




Can FS be a useful tool to develop and to conduct a competence field orientated regional policy in NRW ?

Are there lessons to take into account from the regionalised structural policy approach ?

The role of foresight in CFs




The RSP approach has striking similarities with FOREN´s1 definition of FS:

anticipation participation networking vision building action

Lessons from RSP


1FOREN is a foresight project of the European Commission and the Joint Research Centre IPTS



FS elements in RSP (1/2) ChallengesChallenges

Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

Regionalisation · with the ZIN regions a regional layer below Länder level was established

· randomised regional definition· weak regional identification

· > 10 years experience in regionalisation ZIN regions as starting point for more adequate regional definition

· intra regional conflicts deteriorate the process

Anticipation · not relevant as anticipation was no element within RSP

· concrete actions/ projects may not meet regional needs

· not relevant as anticipation was no element within RSP

· decision do not gain in quality this will be perceived by the actors through weak results erosion of process

Participation · new forms of active participation introduced by RSP· rather broad partnership

· no firms, no citizens!· de facto political pressure from the Land on the regions to participate

· > 10 years experience with participative approaches

· exclusion of firms and citizens reduces "relevance" of the exercise· also: limited awareness and visibility of the exercise



FS elements in RSP (2/2) ChallengesChallenges

Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

Networks · new forms of networks were established· new types of interaction emerged

· rather low frequency of meetings· latent lines of conflict between the partners

· even under weak framework conditions good results (new and intensified dialogue) were yielded

· the whole approach may fall asleep in certain regions· high degree of frustration for those motivated

Vision building · conduction of regional socio-economic SWOT analysis· elaboration of regional development plans

· weak up-dating of regional analysis· plans were pre-determined by policy strategies of the Land

· > 10 years of experience to be exploited

· lack of "shared" vision leads to deficits in decision making ("wrong" projects, inadequate bundle of measures etc.)

Action · RSP's objective was to improve present day's policy decisions

· plans were pre-determined by policy strategies of the Land

· identified weak ness of RSP in that respect is the main driver for developing new and more adequate policy concepts

· wrong projects· inadequate conceptions



Competence Fields + Foresight = Prosperity ?


FS exercises help industrial regions to build up new structures for communication and interaction amongst the actors

RF thus directly contributes to the emergence of regional innovation and learning systems (RILS); regional learning and innovation is the basis for future prosperity and growth



What needs to be done in NRW


Adequate definition of the territory Future intelligence gathering is necessary – but regional

authorities do not like it convince them A minimum devolution of power is necessary Broad network (no exclusion of the businesses) Vision building must be regarded as a process



Some general considerations (1/2)


Old industrial regions generally suffer from a decline in previously pre-dominant economic activities in the region unemployment, insufficient growth, etc.

Need to identify alternative income and employment opportunities as a policy challenge

In the Knowledge economy innovation performance and economic prosperity increasingly depend on the regions' capacity to successfully organise learning processes



Some general considerations (2/2)


The interaction induced by RF exercises is very similar to both learning and innovation processes

RF fertilises learning and innovation and vice versa Policy should thus increasingly exploit synergies

between regional innovation systems and FS RF provides particular advantages for Eastern

European Candidate Countries with weak meso institutions and non-existing regional innovation systems



Eastern Europe and Foresight opportunities

PossibilitiesPossibilities

Problem of Eastern Europe: virtual non-emergence of regional innovations systems

Foresight (FS) provides the potential to develop joint visions for new regional innovations systems in broad partnerships

FS creates the important link between University and Industry

Networking structures and participation assure a policy with a high degree of transparency



Thank you very much for your attention!

Documents

VERITE: Conference on Business Intelligence