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Sundaram Asset Management The Wise Investor July 2011 1 Vibrant mid-cap space vindicates faith Vol 5 - Issue 4 | July 2011 | Rs.3.50 territory.We like what we see and the trends confirm the thought process in dedicating a fund to this space as early as December 2001 in terms of conception and July 2002 in terms of launch of the fund. A market of about Rs 32,000 crore has risen 24-fold and is now bigger than the entire market size for all stocks in December 2000. An unhealthy sector profile, courtesy the plethora of dubious IT companies that have subsequently withered, has undergone a massive shift and sports a healthy look that is rooted in ground reality unlike absurd price-earnings and price-revenue ratios that dominated in the early part of the decade under study. Concentration levels are much lower as materials and consumer discretionary accounted for half the group in 2000.The space has a more diversified hue despite a sharp rise in banking and financial services. Several mid-sized public sector and private sector banks have been listed during the period accounting for the sharp rise in the profile of banking and finance.We know this is for real, as it has happened on the watch of an eagle-eyed Reserve Bank of India. The expansion in market cap has also meant more investment options beyond the 200- ranked stock now. It has also meant improved liquidity. The inherent risks in the mid-cap space were spectacularly showcased in 2008 when the stocks in the group under study shed 61% of value and those below 200 in market-cap ranking lost even more.Yet, about 30 funds dedicated to the mid- and small-cap spaces managed to overcome the first real stress test. Interestingly despite a scorching run in the recovery since March 2009, the core mid-cap space did not regain by December 2009 the peak market-cap levels of end 2007.This happened only in end 2010, more on account of big-ticket listings in the large-cap space having an effect across the cap curve. Cyclical stocks account for about two-thirds of the core mid-cap space. This means this category is more geared to the growth trends in the Indian economy.The big plus is the cyclical group is significantly more diversified than in the past. Clearly, there is a robust case for a mid-cap allocation in every intelligent portfolio, but what 2008 has thought us is not to overdo it at any stage. Performance of different parts of the market (refer The Wise Investor April 2011) also indicates the need for prudence in such an allocation process, T P Raman Managing Director Sundaram Asset Management As the first dedicated mid-cap fund launched in India (an offering of our fund house) steps into its tenth year, our series on market-cap trends has arrived, fittingly, to a closer look at the evolution of the mid-cap space in India. The broad sector classification is available in the accompanying graphic. As we mentioned in passing last month, the changes in this space over the ten-year period ending December 2010 are even more pronounced than the healthy market that has emerged in the large-cap space. We have reckoned stocks that are ranked 101 to 200 by market-cap on the National Stock Exchange as marking the core mid-cap Perspective Second 100 Stocks On The NSE - Sector Composition Data Source: Bloomberg;Anaysis: Sundaram Asset Management. Change in NSE Market Cap is number of times as compared to December 2000 GICS Classification Dec-00 % Dec-02 % Dec-10 % Change %Points Consumer Discretionary 21.1 16.9 7.2 -14.0 Consumer Staples 5.1 5.7 11.8 6.7 Energy 3.0 2.8 5.2 2.2 Financials (Banks & Financial Services) 9.5 12.3 22.7 13.3 Financials (Real Estate) 5.1 5.1 Health Care 6.5 11.1 8.6 2.1 Industrials 13.5 10.5 15.5 2.1 Information Technology 12.6 11.0 3.0 -9.6 Materials 28.0 27.3 13.5 -14.5 Telecommunication Services 1.0 1.0 Utilities 0.7 2.3 6.5 5.8 Market Cap (Rs. Crore) 31902 35262 762039 23.9 % to NSE Market Cap 6.1 6.4 10.7 4.6

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Page 1: Vibrant mid cap space vindicates faith - Fundsupermart€¦ · Y et,I wou ld r ah pc myb s nif 20-year washout than on financial, insurance, or reinsurance businesses (or other value

SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20111

Vibrant mid-cap spacevindicates faith

Vol 5 - Issue 4 | July 2011 | Rs.3.50

territory.We like what we see and the trends confirm the thoughtprocess in dedicating a fund to this space as early as December 2001in terms of conception and July 2002 in terms of launch of the fund.

� A market of about Rs 32,000 crore has risen 24-fold and is nowbigger than the entire market size for all stocks in December2000.

� An unhealthy sector profile, courtesy the plethora of dubious ITcompanies that have subsequently withered, has undergone amassive shift and sports a healthy look that is rooted in groundreality unlike absurd price-earnings and price-revenue ratios thatdominated in the early part of the decade under study.

� Concentration levels are much lower as materials and consumerdiscretionary accounted for half the group in 2000.The space hasa more diversified hue despite a sharp rise in banking andfinancial services.

� Several mid-sized public sector and private sector banks havebeen listed during the period accounting for the sharp rise in theprofile of banking and finance.We know this is for real, as it hashappened on the watch of an eagle-eyed Reserve Bank of India.

� The expansion in market cap has also meant more investmentoptions beyond the 200- ranked stock now. It has also meantimproved liquidity.

� The inherent risks in the mid-cap space were spectacularlyshowcased in 2008 when the stocks in the group under studyshed 61% of value and those below 200 in market-cap rankinglost even more.Yet, about 30 funds dedicated to the mid- andsmall-cap spaces managed to overcome the first real stress test.

� Interestingly despite a scorching run in the recovery since March2009, the core mid-cap space did not regain by December 2009the peak market-cap levels of end 2007. This happened only inend 2010, more on account of big-ticket listings in the large-capspace having an effect across the cap curve.

� Cyclical stocks account for about two-thirds of the core mid-capspace. This means this category is more geared to the growthtrends in the Indian economy.The big plus is the cyclical group issignificantly more diversified than in the past.

Clearly, there is a robust case for a mid-cap allocation in everyintelligent portfolio, but what 2008 has thought us is not to overdoit at any stage. Performance of different parts of the market (referTheWise Investor April 2011) also indicates the need for prudencein such an allocation process,

T P RamanManaging DirectorSundaram Asset Management

As the first dedicated mid-cap fund launched in India (an offering ofour fund house) steps into its tenth year, our series on market-captrends has arrived, fittingly, to a closer look at the evolution of themid-cap space in India.

The broad sector classification is available in the accompanyinggraphic.As we mentioned in passing last month, the changes in thisspace over the ten-year period ending December 2010 are evenmore pronounced than the healthy market that has emerged in thelarge-cap space.

We have reckoned stocks that are ranked 101 to 200 by market-capon the National Stock Exchange as marking the core mid-cap

Perspective

Second 100 Stocks OnThe NSE - Sector Composition

Data Source: Bloomberg; Anaysis: Sundaram Asset Management. Change in NSE Market Cap is number of times as compared to December 2000

GICS Classification Dec-00%

Dec-02%

Dec-10%

Change%Points

Consumer Discretionary 21.1 16.9 7.2 -14.0Consumer Staples 5.1 5.7 11.8 6.7Energy 3.0 2.8 5.2 2.2Financials (Banks & Financial Services) 9.5 12.3 22.7 13.3Financials (Real Estate) — — 5.1 5.1Health Care 6.5 11.1 8.6 2.1Industrials 13.5 10.5 15.5 2.1Information Technology 12.6 11.0 3.0 -9.6Materials 28.0 27.3 13.5 -14.5Telecommunication Services — — 1.0 1.0Utilities 0.7 2.3 6.5 5.8Market Cap (Rs. Crore) 31902 35262 762039 23.9% to NSE Market Cap 6.1 6.4 10.7 4.6

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20112

IndiaView Equity

Global markets, including India kept true to the Mayphenomenon and were indeed weak. There appears to besome respite in June and in July, thanks to increasedallocation by FII’s into the country, and markets are close totheir 200-day moving average-an indicator that has somepredictive powers on the direction of the market, and onethat is keenly watched by technical analysts as well.

But the story in India has not changed much nor is it likelyto change dramatically in the near term as well, and henceoptimism has to be tempered with realism, which issomething markets don’t do well on either side.

Indian markets have moved up in recent weeks on the backof inflow from FII’s after a long break resulting in marketsblossoming like parched plants after a shower. Yet, this couldbe a passing phase and the structural strengths andweaknesses remain the same. What are they?

Politics and indecision assume centre stage forinfrastructure

With politics and lack of decision making taking their toll oncorporate confidence, it is difficult to believe that growthwill come back soon. Our studies indicate that fresh orderinflow into capital goods companies is dropping and sharplyso. While this is not something to worry, as it can reversejust as quickly, we are concerned that there is no action toreverse this trend.

With a drop in business confidence, increasing interest ratesis not helping either, and projects are likely to get postponedor dropped resulting in a medium term slowdown ininfrastructure spending. A lot of companies in this spaceare trading at half their peak valuations, indicating that thereis some value emerging in this space for the contrarianminded. We are keeping a watch on these companies, andwill definitely build up portfolio positions once clarityemerges.

There are a lot of policy initiatives being taken all at oncewhich is resulting in a high level of uncertainty such as

• CSR for mines which could upset profitability of mines

• Environmental ministry stopping a lot of projects thatwere earlier sanctioned

• Lower tax sops for export based industries such asremoval of DEPB.

In essence, there is a thrust to increase tax collection andenhance social spending, which could lead to corporateprofits not growing as expected. In addition there have beeninstances such as Cairn India where government policy isnot clear and suddenly favours a company that is about tobe sold by the government. These will not be looked upontoo kindly by FIIs.

Is the consumption story intact?

There are signs that higher interest rates and higher fuelprices are dampening demand for high ticket items such ascars, and homes, but it is difficult to draw meaningfulconclusions in a diverse country such as India. We expectconsumer demand to remain strong on the back of higherfarm incomes, but growth rates could appear weak on theback of a higher base.

Also, companies operating in this segment have seenmargins contract on account of higher input costs. Thereare signs of resilience as well such as two wheelers, wherethe slowdown is not as much as expected. Although, theremay be some slowdown in this segment, we remain positiveon the longer-term story in this sector.

Further, it not being impacted by government policy makesit a favourite of investors. Under the current uncertaincircumstance, consumption appears a safe bet pushingalmost all stocks in this sector to their life highs and

Tempered optimism

Satish RamanathanDirector & Head-Equity

Sundaram Asset Management

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20113

IndiaView Equity

valuations far beyond reasonable levels. While we areconvinced about the story, we are fairly certain that thecurrent valuations will not hold for long, resulting in somecorrection or underperformance in the short to to mediumterm.

Outlook

Global uncertainty remains high on account of a default riskof certain governments such as Greece, Italy and Spain.Investors have begun questioning the health of Chinesebanks as well and sharp drop in global growth cannot beruled out. India will continue to slowdown on the back of atighter liquidity and a higher capital cost. We remainoptimistic that this slowdown is a temporary one, thoughthere is a chance that this slowdown becomes an endemicone. Were that to happen then all bets will be off on Indianmarkets.

The consensus trade as of now continues to be bankdeposits for most investors or other debt products, whichoffer risk-free returns as of now. Investor apathy towardsstocks remains high and each fall in the market evokes acertain smugness of having avoided the fall. We believe thatthis phase of correction in the market will be more time led,as global investors have consciously started increasingallocations towards India.

Investors in this round are longer-term oriented funds whoare happier buying falls than rises. Insurance flows have alsobeen lower on the back of changes in regulatory norms, andhence domestic flows into equity markets are much moresubdued than in the past. This equation of flows determinesthat market movements will be much more gradual than inthe past.

Hence building a portfolio will also have to be done with a12-18 month horizon rather than a shorter term view. Wecan sense the frustration among investors, as markets haveyielded very weak returns over a three-year time framewhile almost all other asset classes have outperformedequities. This may not reverse quickly, but it also providesthe opportunity to buy into deep value, well managedcompanies.

Infrastructure stocks have been ignored for a long time andmany consumer stocks have been traded up on the back oftheir defensive attributes. The current risk aversion inmarkets provides an opportunity as the long-term impliedgrowth rates of some stocks are negative, which in adeveloping economy such as ours is not feasible. Hence werecommend a measured approach in investing, and expectreturns to be back-ended rather than short term.

For a complete version, please check the online edition of TheWise Investor at www.sundarammutual.com

Beat the pack by breaking from it

Here are edited insights of Bruce Berkowitz of the

Fairholme Fund from his presentation titled "Beat the Pack

by Breaking from it" to the New York City chapter of the

American Association of Individual Investors.

# 1 Most of what I learned about investing I learned before

I went to college. “Count the money” – count the

money that comes in a business, and count the money

that goes out – what you’re left with is the profit.

# 2 Cash is important because that’s the only thing my

family can spend.

# 3 All about cash.All about counting cash.You run out of

cash, you’re dead.

# 4 Not just any kind of cash – cash an owner can keep

after all the bills are paid, including the costs of

maintaining the franchise.

# 5 What’s the ‘normal’ amount of cash (in a normal year)?

How can I kill it?What’s the worst that can happen?

# 6 Compare my calculations to the price of the stock

(what I pay today versus future cash flows) Is there a

margin of safety (to account for miscalculations, etc.).

# 7 Concentrated portfolio – why buy your 50th favourite

idea?

# 8 Volatility doesn’t equal risk. Risk is the chance of a

permanent loss of capital.

# 9 Have patience, because it’s impossible to time it right.

(I’ve tried everything – chicken bones, technical

analysis). I always seem to suffer from premature

accumulation – I buy too soon, and keep buying.

# 10 I try to think of all the ways I can think of to commit

financial suicide, and try not to do those things

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/272958-bruce-berkowitz-

beat-the-pack-by-breaking-from-it

The views presented by the author (s) do not necessarily represent that ofSundaram Asset Management. The article / posts have been reproduced withpermission or from reports available in the public domain in order to providereaders access to a diverse range of views on the economy and asset markets.

DistilledWisdom

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20114

IndiaView Bonds

Flat near-term rates for now

Dwijendra SrivastavaHead-Fixed Income

Sundaram Asset Management

In the June monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India delivered

on market expectations of raising the signaling rate i.e. repo rate

by 25 basis points to 7.50% - similarly the reverse repo rate was

set at 6.50% and marginal standing facility at 8.50%.The CRR

(Cash Reserve Ratio) and SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio)

remained unchanged at 6.00% and 24.00% respectively.

Market participants were expecting a dovish tone along with a rise

in signaling rates but the policy tone appeared more hawkish.The

central bank is concerned about the inflationary pressures and

was willing to sacrifice growth for that.

The primary supply from the banks did not disrupt the market, as

the appetite for bank CDs was ample from mutual funds and

banks. The rates on a three month CD (Certificate of Deposit)

was trading in a band of 8.35% to 9.80% before closing at 8.50%

levels – a decline of 125 basis points (one basis point is 0,01%)

over May.

Six-month rates were lower by 80 basis points while one-year CD

rates declined by 25 to 30 basis points. On the CP (Commercial

Papers) front, rates on the three-months were lower by 145 basis

points from April month. Six-month rates were down 110 basis

Monthly inflation number as indicated by WPI (Wholesale price

Index) was higher at 9.06% than the market consensus of 8.74%-

this was on account of the manufactured products – food

products, textiles, chemicals and metals were to blame for the rise.

points and one-year rates were lower by 75 basis points.

The impact of higher inflation and anti-inflationary stance by

central bank did not deter the traders to bid up the ten-year G

Sec from 8.40% to 8.29% before policy announcement and closed

the month at 8.33%.The ten-year traded in a band of 8.19% to

8.40%.

Outlook:We expect the economic growth to remain weak for

the coming two to three quarters.The credit-deposit ratio gap has

begun to shrink with the y-o-y rate for credit growth rate at

20.7% while the deposit growth rate at 18.4% - this is in line with

the central bank’s target.With retail deposits being sticky, we can

see a situation where the credit and deposit growth rate level off

and the liquidity in the banking system improves.

The LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) window has shown an

average of negative Rs 74000 crore largely due to the stance the

central bank has maintained for transmission of policy rates in a

high- inflationary environment.The hike in administered fuel prices

was much awaited move and the impact of the same will be fully

absorbed in next two months.

In the upcoming monetary policy, a hike of 25 basis points is the

most probable outcome.With the government paper supply and

high inflation, yields can test their peaks in the next month.We

expect the ten-year G Sec to trade in a band of 8.15% to 8.45%.

The progression of monsoons is critical as 60% of sowing is done

in July. The level of agflation is dependent on the monsoons,

international commodity environment and minimum support

prices.

Money market rates could remain easy for the next month and

three-month CD rates may stabilize in a band of 8.50% to 8.75%.

Redemption of CD in July is about Rs 30,000 to Rs 35,000 crore

which is not a daunting number to be absorbed by the markets.

We may see the Ministry of Finance looking to do disinvestment

in the coming month.

Strategy:We will look to deploy the funds in the money market

schemes largely in the one-to-three month buckets depending on

the market dynamics at that time.We expect the below-90 days

money market assets to trade in a tight band. Duration funds are

likely to underperform on account of expected monetary policy

action and rise in inflation due to fuel price hike.We intend to

raise duration of our products with a view of outperformance in

a three-to-six month period.

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20115

By Invitation

"Smart Money" sees A Bargain in Berkshire Shares A 52-week low, a

long track record, and a modest valuation -- even Buffett would buy,

writes Dave Kansas ...Berkshire shares look remarkably cheap.

Berkshire hit $109,925 its lowest level since June 2010.They have

since recovered a bit to trade above $112,000, but the shares are

still down about 14% since a Feb. 28 high of $131,300. Berkshire's

shares haven't traded below $100,000 since January 2010.

Berkshire's B shares,which trade at about $75, have performed in

similar fashion.

At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had a book value of

$97,081 a share.That means Berkshire is trading about 1.15 times

book value. According to Barclays, Berkshire's historical median

valuation is about 1.7 times book value, and 1.1 times book value

is about as cheap as Berkshire has gotten in past decade.

Its historical price/book multiple since 2000 has been about 1.6.

That would be about $155,000 a share based on first-quarter

book value.

Buffet Already Bought: Of course Buffett would buy. He

already did.

The mistake is thinking that "values" of the past decade constitute

real value that the market will recognize anytime soon.

Take a look at Citigroup.Yahoo Finance reports Citigroup Trades

at Price/Book of .64

Lovely. Had you bought at price to book of 1.0 (a tremendous

"value" to many) you would be 36 percent in the hole.

Take a look Bank of America. Yahoo Finance reports Bank of

America Trades at Price/Book of .50.

Had you bought Bank of America at "book value" you would be

down 50%.

Had you bought Citigroup near its peak you would be down 90%

or more with a 0% chance of ever getting even.

Value Trap: Does "book value" constitutes real value? How

much of the book value of Citigroup and Bank of America is

based on nonsensical not marked-to-market holdings?

Ask the same of Berkshire.

Even if you conclude Berkshire constitutes real "value", what if

the market does not recognize that "value" for a decade or even

two?

That question may sound silly but it is not.

Many stocks in the Japanese Nikkei index trade at or below book

value and have for years. Please consider the following chart of

the Nikkei.The Nikkei peaked above 38,000 in 1989.Two decades

later it sits below 10,000.

Like the results?

Of course you don't.

Yet, I would rather place my bets on companies following a 20-

year washout than on financial, insurance, or reinsurance

businesses (or other value traps) that the market might not

recognize for decades, if indeed ever.

Sentiment Matters: Based on "value", Japanese stocks were

cheap in 1995, cheaper in 1999, even cheaper in 2005, and

preposterously cheap now.

On a similar basis, Berkshire shares may be "cheap" now but why

should anyone care if the market may not recognize that for

another decade?

The first problem is finding something that is genuinely cheap.

Citigroup and Bank of America looked "cheap" all the way down.

Dead Money ‘Value Traps’ Galore

The views presented by the author (s) do not necessarily represent that of Sundaram Asset Management.The article / posts have been reproduced with permission orfrom reports available in the public domain in order to provide readers access to a diverse range of views on the economy and asset markets.

Mike ‘Mish’ ShedlockMish’s Global Economic Analysis

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20116

The second problem is book values may be overstated. Does

anyone really believe the book value of Citigroup or Bank of

America? On the same basis,why should anyone believe the book

value of Berkshire?

The third problem is timing what is genuinely cheap. The third

problem pertains to PE compression cycles.What was "normal"

for the past decade has nothing to do with "normal" at all. PE

ratios expanded to enormous heights and now we are in a period

of PE contraction.

Thus, assuming one does believe Berkshire is undervalued (I

don't) , is there any reason to suspect the market will recognize

that "value" anytime soon?

Negative Results For Another Decade: If you think

Berkshire is a scorching buy, please consider the following:

• Negative Annualized Stock Market Returns for the Next 10

Years or Longer? It's Far More Likely ThanYou Think

• Anatomy of Bubbles;Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited;

Is Gold in a Bubble?

Count me in the group that says earnings estimates are

horrendously overstated and unsustainable.

However, let's assume I am wrong about earnings.

Assume Berkshire is a "screaming buy" based on earnings or

other metrics.What difference does it make if it takes the market

10 years to recognize that point of view?

Reversion to the Mean:My point is that not only will earnings

revert to the mean, but so will P/E valuations. That is a double

whammy to stocks in general and applies to Berkshire as well.

If "either" earnings or valuations revert to the mean, it spells

problems for equities at current valuations.

Berkshire, Bank of America, and Citigroup are all dead money

"value traps" and may be for a decade just as Intel and Cisco were

after the dotcom bust.

Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks.Please read the Statement ofAdditional Information of Sundaram Mutual Fund and Scheme InformationDocument of Schemes of Sundaram Mutual Fund, which are available atwww.sundarammutual.com, carefully before taking an investment decision. RiskFactors:All mutual funds and securities investments are subject to market risks.There can be no assurance or guarantee that a scheme's objective will be achieved.NAV may rise or decline, depending on factors and forces affecting the securitiesmarket. There is risk of capital loss and uncertainty of dividend distribution. GeneralDisclaimer: The Wise Investor, a monthly publication of Sundaram Asset Management, is forinformation purposes only.TheWise Investor is not and should not be construed as a prospectus,scheme information document, offer document, offer solicitation for an investment and investmentadvice, to name a few. Information in this document has been obtained from sources that arereliable in the opinion of Sundaram Asset Management. Opinions expressed by authors do notnecessarily represent that of Sundaram Mutual Fund or Sundaram Asset Management orSundaram Trustee Company or Sundaram Finance, the sponsor. Statutory: Mutual FundSundaram Mutual Fund is a trust under the Indian Trusts Act, 1882 Sponsor (Liability is limitedto Rs 1 lakh): Sundaram Finance Limited; Investment Manager: Sundaram Asset ManagementCompany Limited. Trustee: Sundaram Trustee Company Limited. Past performance ofSponsors/Asset Management Company/Fund does not indicate or guarantee future performance.

In Mumbai, GREED & fear was reminded again of the fact

that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains a wonderful

example of what a central bank should be. That is an

institution whose primary concern is ensuring the safety and

soundness of the local banking system. True, the RBI has

been somewhat on the defensive of late because of a

perceived failure not to have been sufficiently pre-emptive

combating inflation.

The merits of this point of view can be debated among

reasonable people, though in GREED & fear’s view the RBI

has now become pre-emptive. But far more interesting to

GREED & fear is the central bank’s continuing pre-emptive

efforts to manage any sign of credit excesses in the system.

GREED & fear refers in part to the decision announced in

the same week as the 50bp rate hike to remove non-banking

financial companies (NBFCs) from the privileged status of

“priority sector”.

The result has been a dramatic lowering in the projected

growth of these non-bank financial institutions, such as

commercial vehicle financiers. That is a negative for the

stocks affected but it is positive for the system as a whole

since these non-bank lenders represented a growing

potential threat to the system as a whole because they were

growing at such a rapid rate.

Thus, loans by NBFCs have risen by an annualised 22% from

an estimated Rs4.2 trillion at the end

of March 2007 to Rs7.7 trillion at the end of March 2010.

Another example of pre-emptive action worth noting is the

RBI’s extremely conservative stance towards so-called

“teaser” mortgages - imposing a required provision of 2% of

the total outstanding loan in the case of a teaser mortgage,

compared with the required 0.4% for a regular mortgage.

GREED & fear mentions the above straight forward

common sense approach because it means the Indian credit

cycle will stay healthier for longer. It also is in stark contrast

to the continuing complicated debate on bank capital ratios

and the like seen in theWest.

Christopher Wood, Managing Director &

Strategist of CLSA Asia-Pacific, an independent

research outfit and author of the weekly report

GREED & Fear.

The OutsideView

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SundaramAsset Management TheWise Investor July 20117

Voices

The views presented by the author (s) do not necessarily represent that of Sundaram Asset Management.The article / posts have been reproduced with permissionor from reports available in the public domain in order to provide readers access to a diverse range of views on the economy and asset markets.

I’m in no hurry to rush into the arms of an anxious and waitingWall Street. It bothers me that it’s all so pat and so widely accepted.So far, the Treasuries are acting according to script and so is gold.The stock market is acting as if something better is riding onthe winds of the future. Could something be amiss with the accepted scenario? Could Bennie Bernanke have it right? And why isTreasury Secretary Geithner ready to say “bye” to the administration?What can he see ahead that he doesn’t .like Certainly, anunusual time to exit.

Richard Russel, DowTheory Letters

There’s no arrangement for any countries leaving the euro, which in current circumstances is probably inevitable.We are on theverge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread.The financial system remains extremelyvulnerable. I think most of us actually agree that Europe’s crisis is actually centered around the euro. It’s a kind of financial crisisthat is really developing. It’s foreseen.Most people realize it. It’s still developing.The authorities are actually engaged in buying time.And yet time is working against them.

George Soros, renowned hedge-fund manager

The post-bubble long march to Ice Age valuations seems fully intact to the naked eye.And as the economic gloom intensifies, thisis the stage in the cycle when we need to revisit the Ice Age theme. For the Japanese experience shows that in the post-bubblecyclical recovery, the Ice Age impact on valuations lies dormant, only to viciously catch out unsuspecting investors as the cycletakes its inevitable turn for the worse.We know exactly what to expect. If western investors think we are anywhere near the endof our own deep freeze, let them think again.

Albert Edwards, Strategist at Societe Generale

Greece’s economic ills are a trivial menace to the global economy compared with the much graver threat posed by a heavily-indebted and seemingly immobile U.S. government.There is a serious problem in the U.S.The U.S. deficit is around $1.5 trillion.It’s far more dangerous than Greece.This is not an insoluble problem,” he said of the U.S. debt crisis. “You can fix it with somefiddling here and there. But you need the will to do it.And you need consciousness about the importance of debt. I don’t see that.Politicians are good at getting elected, not at solving problems like this.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb,Author of The Black Swan

The current approach by global initiatives to ensure financial stability is based on the belief in the efficiency of globally agreedstandards of economic policy and of regulation of financial sector.There is no guarantee that such globally acceptable standardswould be optimal…if we had such an approach ten years ago, the global economy would be modelled onAnglo-Saxon frameworkand there would not be different systems (China or India?) to lead a recovery.The advantages of diversity on policies of countriescould contribute to stability in global economy and finance.

DrY V Reddy, former Governor of Reserve Bank of India

I do not have a strong feeling as to the particular year it happens, but 400 number (for S&P 500) is looking at the low points overthe last 100 years, of cyclically adjusted PEs, and also the Q-Ratio which is measuring equities to the replacement value of assets.If valuation measures continue to mean-revert, then we are not talking 666 but a number near 400.This is an emerging marketthat says we no longer think the developed world has good credit quality and we refuse to back developed world governmentswith our capital….then this [400] is where we go to.

Russel Napier, Historian on financial markets

What Europe needs to do instead is to create a new currency built around Germany and based on a fiscal union from day one.As Germany will effectively be underwriting such a currency, it shall have the right to choose who it wants in the club. I thinkthat will be the ultimate way out of this mess, but there will be plenty of pain beforehand, as nobody is yet prepared to make thisjump.This implies that yield spreads on Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian government bonds will continue to widen relative toGerman bonds, perhaps dramatically so.

Niels C Jensen,Absolute Return Partners

Sources: Pragmatic Capitalist, Bloomberg, Zero Hedge, Financial Sense,The Absolute Return Letter, www.rbi.org.in

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