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Win
ter
20
13
/14
Be
nch
mar
k an
d R
evis
ed
Pro
ject
ion
s fo
r N
ew E
ngl
and
Nat
ura
l Gas
Su
pp
lies
and
De
man
d
Pre
sen
tati
on
to
Pla
nn
ing
Ad
viso
ry C
om
mit
tee
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4
Kev
in P
etak
V
ice
Pre
sid
en
t, N
atu
ral G
as M
arke
ts
ICF
Inte
rnat
ion
al
70
3-2
18
-27
53
K
evin
.Pet
ak@
icfi
.co
m
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 1 of 20
000158
2
ICF
Inte
rnat
ion
al D
iscl
aim
er
War
ran
tie
s an
d R
ep
rese
nta
tio
ns.
IC
F en
de
avo
rs t
o p
rovi
de
info
rmat
ion
an
d
pro
ject
ion
s co
nsi
sten
t w
ith
sta
nd
ard
pra
ctic
es in
a p
rofe
ssio
nal
man
ner
. IC
F M
AK
ES
NO
WA
RR
AN
TIES
, HO
WEV
ER, E
XP
RES
S O
R IM
PLI
ED (
INC
LUD
ING
WIT
HO
UT
LIM
ITAT
ION
AN
Y W
AR
RA
NTI
ES O
R M
ERC
HA
NTA
BIL
ITY
OR
FIT
NES
S FO
R A
PA
RTI
CU
LAR
P
UR
PO
SE),
AS
TO T
HIS
PR
ESEN
TATI
ON
. Sp
eci
fica
lly, b
ut
wit
ho
ut
limit
atio
n, I
CF
mak
es
no
war
ran
ty o
r gu
aran
tee
rega
rdin
g th
e ac
cura
cy o
f an
y fo
reca
sts,
est
imat
es, o
r an
alys
es,
or
that
su
ch w
ork
pro
du
cts
will
be
acc
epte
d b
y an
y le
gal o
r re
gula
tory
b
od
y.
Wai
vers
. Th
ose
vie
win
g th
is p
rese
nta
tio
n h
ereb
y w
aive
an
y cl
aim
at
any
tim
e,
wh
eth
er n
ow
or
in t
he
futu
re, a
gain
st IC
F, it
s o
ffic
ers,
dir
ecto
rs, e
mp
loye
es
or
agen
ts
aris
ing
ou
t o
f o
r in
co
nn
ect
ion
wit
h t
his
pre
sen
tati
on
. In
no
eve
nt
wh
atso
ever
sh
all
ICF,
its
off
icer
s, d
irec
tors
, em
plo
yee
s, o
r ag
ents
be
liab
le t
o t
ho
se v
iew
ing
this
p
rese
nta
tio
n.
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 2 of 20
000159
Stu
dy
Co
nta
cts
Ma
rk B
ab
ula
, IS
O
Pro
ject M
anager
413-5
35-4
324
m
ba
bula
@is
o-n
e.c
om
Ke
vin
Pe
tak
, IC
F
Pro
ject D
irecto
r
703-2
18-2
753
K
evin
.Pe
tak@
icfi.c
om
Wa
yn
e C
os
te, IS
O
Technic
al M
anager
413-5
40-4
266
w
co
ste
@is
o-n
e.c
om
Fra
nk
Bro
ck
, IC
F
Lead, G
as
Syste
ms A
na
lysis
703-2
18
-27
41
F
ran
k.B
rock@
icfi.c
om
3
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 3 of 20
000160
Co
nte
nts
In
tro
du
ctio
n
D
ata
fro
m W
inte
r 2
01
3/1
4
N
atu
ral G
as S
up
ply
an
d D
eman
d:
P
roje
ctio
ns
vers
us
Act
ual
R
evis
ed p
roje
ctio
n f
or
gas
sup
plie
s av
aila
ble
to
el
ectr
ic g
ener
ato
rs t
hro
ugh
20
20
4
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 4 of 20
000161
5
Intr
od
uct
ion
In
20
13
, IC
F co
mp
lete
d t
he
Ph
ase
II a
sses
smen
t o
f N
ew E
ngl
and
nat
ura
l gas
su
pp
lies,
fir
m L
DC
d
eman
d, a
nd
gas
su
pp
lies
rem
ain
ing
for
elec
tric
gen
erat
ors
th
rou
gh 2
02
0.
–P
has
e II
incl
ud
ed p
roje
ctio
ns
for
the
90
-day
win
ter
per
iod
(D
ecem
ber
1 t
hro
ugh
Feb
ruar
y 2
8)
and
th
e p
eak
sum
mer
day
un
der
a r
ange
of
wea
ther
co
nd
itio
ns,
bas
ed o
n t
he
pri
or
20
-yea
rs o
f te
mp
erat
ure
dat
a.
Th
e p
rim
ary
ob
ject
ive
of
this
new
“B
ench
mar
k” a
nal
ysis
is t
o r
e-e
valu
ate
the
Ph
ase
II
pro
ject
ion
s fo
r N
ew E
ngl
and
nat
ura
l gas
su
pp
lies,
fir
m L
DC
dem
and
, an
d g
as s
up
plie
s re
mai
nin
g fo
r el
ectr
ic g
ener
ato
rs b
ased
on
dat
a fo
r ga
s sy
stem
per
form
ance
du
rin
g th
e w
inte
r o
f 2
01
3/1
4
(par
ticu
larl
y d
uri
ng
the
po
lar
vort
ex e
ven
ts),
an
d m
ake
adju
stm
ent
to t
he
pro
ject
ion
s w
her
e n
eces
sary
.
IS
O-N
E al
so p
rovi
ded
new
pro
ject
ion
s fo
r p
eak
day
win
ter
and
su
mm
er e
lect
ric
gen
erat
ion
gas
d
eman
d t
hro
ugh
20
20
, b
ased
on
th
e re
sult
s o
f th
e la
test
Fo
rwar
d C
apac
ity
Au
ctio
n (
FCA
8).
–IC
F u
sed
th
ese
new
gas
dem
and
pro
ject
ion
s an
d t
he
revi
sed
pro
ject
ion
s fo
r ga
s su
pp
lies
rem
ain
ing
for
elec
tric
gen
erat
ors
to
cal
cula
te p
ote
nti
al g
as s
up
ply
su
rplu
s/d
efic
its
on
pea
k w
inte
r an
d s
um
mer
day
s th
rou
gh 2
02
0.
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Un
its
use
d t
hro
ugh
ou
t th
is p
rese
nta
tio
n:
1
De
kath
erm
(D
th)
= 1
MM
Btu
= 1
Mcf
= 1
,00
0 c
ub
ic f
eet
1
,00
0 D
th =
1 M
Mcf
= 1
,00
0,0
00
cu
bic
fe
et
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 5 of 20
000162
The
Win
ter
of
20
13
/14
was
th
e 3
rd C
old
est
in
the
Pas
t 2
0 Y
ear
s
Th
e w
inte
r o
f 2
01
3/1
4 w
as t
he
cold
est
in N
ew E
ngl
and
sin
ce t
he
19
90
s.
–B
etw
een
Dec
1 a
nd
Feb
28
a
tota
l of
~3,5
00
Hea
tin
g D
egre
e D
ays
(HD
Ds)
, ab
ou
t 1
0%
co
lder
th
an t
he
20
yea
r av
erag
e.
O
ut
of
the
pas
t 2
1 y
ears
, th
e w
inte
r o
f 2
01
3/1
4 r
anks
th
ird
in
bo
th t
ota
l win
ter
HD
Ds
and
th
e co
ldes
t av
erag
e d
aily
te
mp
erat
ure
.
–Th
e co
ldes
t d
ay w
as J
anu
ary
3,
20
14
, wh
en t
he
wei
ghte
d
aver
age
dai
ly t
emp
erat
ure
was
2
.7 d
egre
es F
.*
1993/94 1995/96
2013/14
2003/04
2007/08
2012/13 2011/12
2001/02
0
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
4,5
00
To
tal H
DD
s, D
ec
1 t
hro
ugh
Fe
b 2
8
6
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
* D
aily
te
mp
era
ture
s a
nd
to
tal w
inte
r H
DD
s a
re b
ase
d o
n th
e w
eig
hte
d a
ve
rage
ho
urly te
mp
era
ture
s fo
r e
igh
t N
ew
En
gla
nd
we
ath
er
sta
tio
ns fo
r th
e g
as d
ay (
a 2
4-h
ou
r p
erio
d s
tart
ing 1
0 A
M E
aste
rn e
ach
da
y).
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 6 of 20
000163
LDC
Fir
m D
em
and
: R
ep
ort
ed
Se
nd
ou
t o
n P
eak
Day
s
Th
e N
ort
hea
st G
as A
sso
ciat
ion
(N
GA
) p
rovi
ded
IS
O-N
E w
ith
rec
ent
sen
do
ut
dat
a an
d r
evis
ed
des
ign
day
est
imat
es f
or
17
of
the
21
New
En
glan
d L
DC
s.
–Th
e 1
7 L
DC
s re
pre
sen
t 9
4%
of
the
regi
on
’s
firm
dem
and
; th
e es
tim
ates
fo
r to
tal N
ew
Engl
and
LD
C s
end
ou
t w
ere
adju
sted
up
war
d
to a
cco
un
t fo
r th
e LD
Cs
that
did
no
t re
po
rt.
–Th
e LD
Cs
did
no
t re
po
rt t
he
tem
per
atu
res
assu
med
for
the
new
des
ign
day
est
imat
es;
ICF
has
ass
um
ed a
des
ign
day
tem
per
atu
re
of
0 d
egre
es
F.
Se
nd
ou
t d
ata
was
pro
vid
ed fo
r 4
day
s:
Jan
uar
y 3
, 7, 2
2, a
nd
23
, of
20
14
.
–Th
ese
wer
e 4
of
the
6 c
old
est
day
s th
is
win
ter,
wit
h a
vera
ge d
aily
tem
per
atu
res
ran
gin
g fr
om
2.7
to
10
.1 d
egre
es
F.
Th
e h
igh
est
ob
serv
ed s
end
ou
t th
is w
inte
r w
as
on
Jan
uar
y 3
, wh
ich
was
als
o t
he
cold
est
day
.
–Ev
en t
ho
ugh
it w
as t
he
hig
hes
t d
eman
d d
ay,
the
com
bin
atio
n o
f a
ho
liday
wee
k an
d a
re
gio
nal
sn
ow
sto
rm r
esu
lted
in J
anu
ary
3,
20
14
dem
and
bei
ng
low
er t
han
we
wo
uld
h
ave
exp
ecte
d, g
iven
th
e te
mp
erat
ure
.
7
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
32
50
35
00
37
50
40
00
42
50
45
00
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
1
LDC Sendout (1,000 Dth)
Ave
rage
Dai
ly T
emp
erat
ure
(D
egre
es F
ahre
nh
eit)
Win
ter
Dai
ly L
DC
Fir
m D
em
and
:
4-D
ay S
amp
le D
ata
and
New
De
sign
Day
Jan
3
Jan
7
Jan
22
Jan
23
Re
vise
d D
esi
gn D
ay E
stim
ate
Ori
gin
al D
esi
gn D
ay E
stim
ate
Ho
liday
we
ek
and
sn
ow
sto
rm
resu
lte
d in
sch
oo
l an
d b
usi
ne
ss
clo
sure
s o
n J
anu
ary
3, 2
01
4
wh
ich
re
du
ced
LD
C g
as d
em
and
.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 7 of 20
000164
LDC
Fir
m D
em
and
: R
evis
ion
to
LD
C F
irm
De
man
d M
od
el
B
ased
on
th
e n
ew L
DC
sen
do
ut
dat
a, IC
F re
des
ign
s it
s m
od
el f
or
win
ter
dai
ly L
DC
fir
m d
eman
d.
Th
e re
vise
d d
esig
n d
ay d
eman
d is
ab
ou
t 3
% lo
wer
th
an IC
F’s
ori
gin
al e
stim
ate
at t
he
pea
k.
H
ow
ever
, th
e re
vise
d p
roje
ctio
ns
for
dem
and
s b
etw
een
63
an
d 4
5
HD
Ds
(2 t
o 2
0 d
egre
es F
) ar
e h
igh
er t
han
ICF’
s o
rigi
nal
p
roje
ctio
n.
8
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
3,2
50
3,5
00
3,7
50
4,0
00
4,2
50
4,5
00
54
5
5
56
5
7
58
5
9
60
6
1
62
6
3
64
6
5
66
LDC Sendout (1,000 Dth)
He
atin
g D
egr
ee
Day
s
Win
ter
Dai
ly L
DC
Fir
m D
em
and
:
4-D
ay S
amp
le D
ata
vers
us
Mo
de
l Pro
ject
ion
s
Ori
gin
al L
DC
Dem
and
Mo
del
Rev
ised
LD
C D
eman
d M
od
el
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 8 of 20
000165
LDC
Fir
m D
em
and
: O
rigi
nal
an
d R
evis
ed
Est
imat
es
for
Win
ter
20
13
/14
9
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
0
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
4,5
00
1
10
2
0
30
4
0
50
6
0
70
8
0
90
LDC Firm Demand (1,000 Dth)
12
/1/1
3 t
hro
ugh
2/2
8/1
4, O
rde
red
Co
lde
st t
o W
arm
est
Day
Rev
ised
Mo
del
Ori
gin
al M
od
el
B
ased
on
th
is w
inte
r’s
aver
age
d
aily
tem
per
atu
res,
th
e O
rigi
nal
an
d R
evis
ed m
od
els
hav
e si
mila
r re
sult
s fo
r b
oth
Pe
ak-D
ay D
eman
d a
nd
90
-Day
To
tal D
eman
d.
H
ow
ever
, th
e R
evis
ed m
od
el’s
lo
ad c
urv
e h
as a
Ste
eper
Slo
pe
than
th
e O
rigi
nal
mo
del
:
–LD
C d
eman
d a
vera
ges
5%
h
igh
er o
n t
he
30
Hig
hes
t D
ays.
–LD
C d
eman
d a
vera
ges
4%
lo
wer
on
th
e 6
0 L
ow
est
Day
s.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 9 of 20
000166
Gas
Su
pp
lies:
P
ipe
line
Cap
acit
ies
and
Flo
ws
10
A
pri
l 29
, 20
14
PA
C M
eeti
ng
In
Ph
ase
II, IC
F u
pd
ated
it’s
ass
essm
ent
of
con
trac
ted
pip
elin
e ca
pac
ity
into
New
En
glan
d.
–Fo
r P
has
e II,
ICF
esti
mat
ed c
on
trac
ted
ca
pac
ity
into
th
e re
gio
n is
3,7
19
MM
cf/d
.
–IC
F cu
rren
tly
pro
ject
s th
at c
apac
ity
add
itio
ns
on
Alg
on
qu
in a
nd
Ten
nes
see
will
ad
d a
to
tal o
f 4
14
MM
cf/d
of
cap
acit
y in
N
ove
mb
er 2
01
6; t
his
is s
ligh
tly
low
er t
han
th
e P
has
e II
pro
ject
ion
of
45
0 M
Mcf
/d.
IC
F co
mp
ared
th
is w
inte
r’s
dai
ly f
low
s (d
eriv
ed fr
om
no
min
atio
n d
ata
po
sted
on
th
e p
ipel
ines
’ ele
ctro
nic
bu
lleti
n b
oar
ds)
to
ou
r cu
rren
t ca
pac
ity
assu
mp
tio
n.
A
s in
pas
t ye
ars,
we
ob
serv
ed t
hat
n
om
inat
ion
s o
n s
ever
al p
ipel
ines
wer
e sl
igh
tly
hig
her
th
an IC
F’s
esti
mat
e o
f co
ntr
acte
d c
apac
ity
on
a f
ew d
ays;
on
Ja
nu
ary
3 (
the
pea
k d
eman
d d
ay),
to
tal f
low
s w
ere
abo
ut
10
0 M
Mcf
/d (
~2%
) ab
ove
ag
greg
ate
pip
elin
e ca
pac
ity.
–H
ow
ever
, flo
ws
wer
e b
elo
w a
ggre
gate
ca
pac
ity
on
sev
eral
oth
er h
igh
dem
and
d
ays;
th
eref
ore
we
hav
e n
ot
chan
ged
ou
r es
tim
ate
of
curr
ent
pip
elin
e ca
pac
ity.
-
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
MMcf / 1,000 Dth
New
En
glan
d In
-Bo
un
d P
ipe
line
s:
Agg
rega
te F
low
s ve
rsu
s A
ggre
gate
Cap
acit
y
Tota
l Co
ntr
acte
d P
ipel
ine
Cap
acit
y in
to N
ew E
ngl
and
Ob
serv
ed D
aily
Pip
elin
e Fl
ow
s, W
inte
r 2
01
3/1
4
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 10 of 20
000167
Gas
Su
pp
lies:
LN
G a
nd
Pro
pan
e-A
ir P
eak
Sh
avin
g Se
nd
ou
t
11
A
pri
l 29
, 20
14
PA
C M
eeti
ng
Th
e LD
Cs
mee
t a
po
rtio
n o
f th
eir
pea
k w
inte
r lo
ads
wit
h s
atel
lite
LNG
an
d p
rop
ane-
air
pea
k sh
avin
g fa
cilit
ies.
Th
e LD
Cs
did
no
t p
rovi
de
any
dat
a o
n d
aily
sen
do
ut
fro
m t
hei
r p
eak
shav
ing
faci
litie
s, b
ut
we
can
im
plic
itly
arr
ive
at u
sage
: Im
plie
d P
eak
Sh
avin
g Se
nd
ou
t =
LD
C S
en
do
ut
-
LDC
Pip
elin
e N
om
inat
ion
s
Th
e R
evis
ed M
od
el o
f p
eak
shav
ing
sen
do
ut
ind
icat
es h
igh
er
uti
lizat
ion
on
“n
ear-
pea
k” w
inte
r
day
s, w
hen
tem
per
atu
res
are
bel
ow
10
deg
rees
F.
0
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
1,0
00
1,2
00
1,4
00
1,6
00
54
5
5
56
5
7
58
5
9
60
6
1
62
6
3
64
6
5
66
Peak Shaving Sendout (1,000 Dth)
Hea
tin
g D
egr
ee
Day
s
Win
ter
Dai
ly P
eak
Sh
avin
g Se
nd
ou
t:
Imp
lied
Val
ue
s vs
Mo
de
led
Pro
ject
ion
s
Ori
gin
al M
od
el
Rev
ised
Mo
del
Imp
lied
Pea
k Sh
avin
g Se
nd
ou
t
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 11 of 20
000168
12
Gas
Su
pp
lies:
M
&N
Pip
elin
e W
inte
r D
aily
Flo
ws
(1
00
) -
10
0
20
0
30
0
40
0
50
0
60
0
70
0
80
0
90
0
1,0
00
1
10
2
0
30
4
0
50
6
0
70
8
0
90
M&N Flow, MMcf/d
12
/1/1
3 t
hro
ugh
2/2
8/1
4, O
rder
ed C
old
est
to W
arm
est
Day
Act
ual
20
13
/14
Ori
gin
al M
od
el
Rev
ised
Mo
del
M&
N f
low
ed
no
rth
(re
vers
e) D
ece
mb
er 1
, 2 &
3.
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
M
&N
gas
su
pp
lies
com
e fr
om
a
com
bin
atio
n o
f Ea
ster
n C
anad
ian
o
ffsh
ore
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
LN
G
sen
do
ut
fro
m t
he
Can
apo
rt t
erm
inal
.
Th
e P
has
e II
pro
ject
ion
s an
tici
pat
ed
hig
her
ave
rage
dai
ly f
low
s o
n M
&N
th
is w
inte
r d
ue
to t
he
star
tup
of
Dee
p P
anu
ke in
Au
gust
20
13
.
•Th
e D
eep
Pan
uke
off
sho
re
pla
tfo
rm h
as a
max
imu
m
cap
acit
y o
f 3
00
MM
cf/d
, bu
t fl
ow
s h
ave
bee
n in
term
itte
nt
sin
ce s
tart
up
.
B
ased
on
th
e cu
rren
t d
ata,
ICF
has
re
du
ced
its
pro
ject
ion
fo
r M
&N
av
erag
e w
inte
r fl
ow
s.
–M
&N
is s
till
likel
y to
flo
w f
ull
on
th
e co
ldes
t d
ays.
–H
ow
ever
, pro
ject
ed f
low
s o
n o
ff-
pea
k d
ays
no
w a
vera
ge a
bo
ut
30
0
MM
cf/d
less
.
–D
eclin
ing
off
sho
re p
rod
uct
ion
an
d
incr
easi
ng
dem
and
s in
Eas
tern
C
anad
a w
ill c
on
tin
ue
to r
edu
ced
su
pp
lies
avai
lab
le f
or
exp
ort
th
rou
gh 2
02
0.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 12 of 20
000169
13
Gas
Su
pp
lies:
D
istr
igas
Win
ter
Dai
ly S
en
do
ut
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
0
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
45
0
1
10
2
0
30
4
0
50
6
0
70
8
0
90
Distrigas Sendout MMcf/d
12
/1/1
3 t
hro
ugh
2/2
8/1
4, O
rder
ed C
old
est
to W
arm
est
Day
Act
ual
20
13
/14
Ori
gin
al M
od
el
Rev
ised
Mo
del
Th
e o
rigi
nal
mo
del
fo
r D
istr
igas
se
nd
ou
t w
as b
ased
on
th
e h
isto
rica
l 20
12
/13
win
ter
sen
do
ut.
*
–D
uri
ng
the
20
12
/13
win
ter,
D
istr
igas
sen
do
ut
aver
aged
2
80
MM
cf/d
.
Th
is w
inte
r, D
istr
igas
sen
do
ut
aver
aged
on
ly a
bo
ut
10
0
MM
cf/d
.
–Th
e R
evis
ed m
od
el h
as
sen
do
ut
abo
ut
50
MM
cf/d
lo
wer
on
pea
k, a
nd
ave
ragi
ng
abo
ut
15
0 M
Mcf
/d lo
wer
th
rou
gho
ut
the
win
ter.
* D
istr
iga
s d
aily
se
nd
ou
t in
clu
de
s r
ega
sific
ation to
Mystic 8
& 9
, a
nd
de
live
rie
s to
Alg
on
qu
in a
nd
Te
nn
essee
pip
elin
es;
do
es n
ot in
clu
de
tru
cke
d d
eliv
erie
s o
r direct co
nn
ectio
n to
Bo
sto
n G
as.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 13 of 20
000170
14
Rev
ise
d M
od
el R
esu
lts
for
20
14
/15
Win
ter:
Gas
Su
pp
lies
Re
mai
nin
g fo
r El
ect
ric
Ge
ne
rato
rs
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
-
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
1
5
10
1
5
20
2
5
30
3
5
40
4
5
50
5
5
60
6
5
70
7
5
80
8
5
90
1,000 Dth per Day
Win
ter
Day
s D
ece
mb
er
20
13
th
rou
gh F
eb
ruar
y 2
01
4, O
rde
red
Co
lde
st t
o W
arm
est
Day
Ori
gin
al M
od
el
Rev
ise
d M
od
el
Ass
um
ing
20
13
/14
win
ter
tem
per
atu
res
and
all
pip
elin
es o
per
ate
at f
ull
cap
acit
y, g
as s
up
plie
s av
aila
ble
to
gen
erat
ors
nex
t w
inte
r w
ill b
e
be
low
1,0
00
MM
cf/d
fo
r ~4
5 d
ays,
an
d
be
low
50
0 M
Mcf
/d f
or
20
day
s.
Un
der
th
ese
wea
ther
co
nd
itio
ns,
an
y m
ajo
r d
isru
pti
on
to
ga
s in
fra
stru
ctu
re
wo
uld
red
uce
rem
ain
ing
ga
s su
pp
lies
to n
ear
zero
.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 14 of 20
000171
Ele
ctri
c G
ene
rati
on
Ret
ire
me
nts
in t
he
FC
A 8
Cas
es
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g 1
5
Are
a U
nit
Nam
e
Typ
e
Pri
mar
y Fu
el
Ch
ange
in
C
apac
ity
(MW
)
SEM
A
SOM
ERSE
T 6
ST
BIT
-1
09
.1
CT
AES
TH
AM
ES
ST
BIT
-1
84
.7
SWC
T B
RID
GEP
OR
T H
AR
BO
R 2
ST
R
FO
-13
0.5
NO
R
NO
RW
ALK
HA
RB
OR
2
ST
RFO
-1
68
.0
NO
R
NO
RW
ALK
HA
RB
OR
1
ST
RFO
-1
62
.0
BO
ST
SALE
M H
AR
BO
R 4
ST
R
FO
-43
1.0
BO
ST
SALE
M H
AR
BO
R 3
ST
B
IT
-14
9.8
VT
VT
YAN
KEE
NU
CLE
AR
ST
NU
C
-62
0.2
WM
A
MT
TOM
ST
B
IT
-14
4.4
RI
BR
AYT
ON
PT
3
ST
BIT
-6
12
.0
RI
BR
AYT
ON
PT
4
ST
RFO
-4
35
.0
RI
BR
AYT
ON
PT
2
ST
BIT
-2
44
.0
RI
BR
AYT
ON
PT
1
ST
BIT
-2
43
.5
0
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
10
00
12
00
14
00
16
00
18
00
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Retirements (MW)
Ye
ar
Re
tire
me
nts
in F
CA
8 C
ase
s RFO
w/
Gas
RFO
Co
al w
/ G
as
Co
al
Nu
c
To
tal =
3,6
34
MW
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 15 of 20
000172
Ass
um
ed
Fu
el P
rice
s fo
r th
e F
CA
8 C
ases
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g 1
6
FUEL
PR
ICES
($
/MM
Btu
)
Bas
e
Low
H
igh
Ex
tre
me
Ass
um
ed
H
eat
Rat
e
(MM
Btu
/ M
Wh
)
Nat
ura
l Gas
$
4.6
$
1.1
5
$9
.19
$
22
.98
7
.5
Co
al
$3
.34
$
3.3
4
$3
.34
$
3.3
4
10
.0
Oil
$1
2.7
2
$1
2.7
2
$1
9.0
8
$1
2.7
2
10
.0
Dis
tilla
te
$2
3.4
2
$2
3.4
2
$4
0.9
8
$2
3.4
2
10
.0
ILLU
STR
ATI
VE
DIS
PATC
H P
RIC
ES (
$/M
Wh
)
Bas
e
Low
H
igh
Ex
tre
me
NG
CC
$
34
.47
$
8.6
2
$6
8.9
3
$1
72
.35
Co
al
$3
3.3
8
$3
3.3
8
$3
3.3
8
$3
3.3
8
RFO
$
12
7.2
1
$1
27
.21
$
19
0.8
1
$1
27
.21
DFO
$
23
4.1
8
$2
34
.18
$
40
9.8
2
$2
34
.18
0
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
45
0
Bas
e Lo
w F
uel
H
igh
Fu
el
Extr
eme
Gas
Pri
ce
Dispatch Price ($/MWh)
Illu
stra
tive
Dis
pat
ch P
rice
s ($
/MW
h)
NG
CC
(7
.5 M
Btu
/MW
h)
Co
al (
10
.0 M
Btu
/MW
h)
RFO
(1
0.0
MB
tu/M
Wh
) D
FO (
10
.0 M
Btu
/MW
h)
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 16 of 20
000173
17
New
ISO
-NE
Pro
ject
ion
s fo
r
Ele
ctri
c G
en
era
tio
n G
as D
em
and
(co
nti
nu
ed
)
0
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Winter Gas Demand (Thous Dth per day)
Win
ter
Pe
ak D
ay G
as D
em
and
E1SN
P8
9L
E11
NP
85
0
E11
NP
89
0
E11
NP
89
H
E1SN
P8
9H
E1SN
P8
5H
E1SN
P8
5L
E1SN
P8
9E
E11
NP
89
E 0
50
0
1,0
00
1,5
00
2,0
00
2,5
00
3,0
00
3,5
00
4,0
00
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Summer Gas Demand (Thous Dth per day)
Sum
me
r P
eak
Day
Gas
De
man
d
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Hig
he
st G
as D
em
and
E1SN
P89
LLo
w G
as P
rice
s, S
eab
roo
k-O
ut,
90/
10 F
ore
cast
E11N
P85
0B
ase
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
In, 5
0/50
Fo
reca
st
E11N
P89
0B
ase
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
In, 9
0/10
Fo
reca
st
E11N
P89
HH
igh
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
In, 9
0/10
Fo
reca
st
E1SN
P89
HH
igh
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
Ou
t, 9
0/10
Fo
reca
st
E1SN
P85
HH
igh
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
Ou
t, 5
0/50
Fo
reca
st
E1SN
P89
EEX
TREM
E G
as P
rice
s, S
eab
roo
k-O
ut,
90/
10 F
ore
cast
Low
est
Gas
De
man
dE1
1NP
89E
EXTR
EME
Gas
Pri
ces,
Se
abro
ok-
In, 9
0/10
Fo
reca
st
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 17 of 20
000174
18
Tw
o o
f th
e n
ew d
isp
atch
cas
es
pro
vid
ed b
y IS
O-N
E as
sum
e $
23
/MM
Btu
gas
pri
ces
(sim
ilar
to t
his
w
inte
r’s
aver
age
spo
t p
rice
).
–Th
ese
“Ext
rem
e G
as P
rice
” ca
ses
mak
e m
ost
(b
ut
no
t al
l) o
f th
e ga
s-fi
red
un
its
mo
re e
xpen
sive
to
d
isp
atch
th
an o
ther
res
ou
rces
.
A
ssu
min
g w
inte
r 2
01
3/1
4 w
eath
er
con
dit
ion
s, m
ost
oil-
fire
d u
nit
s in
-m
erit
, an
d S
eab
roo
k in
clu
ded
in t
he
dis
pat
ch, g
as s
up
plie
s av
aila
ble
to
ge
ner
ato
rs a
re b
arel
y ad
equ
ate
thro
ugh
20
17
/18
, an
d t
hen
in d
efic
it
by
abo
ut
10
0 M
Mcf
/d (
~40
0 M
W).
W
ith
Sea
bro
ok
off
line,
gas
su
pp
lies
are
in d
efic
it t
hro
ugh
ou
t th
e fo
reca
st
by
as m
uch
as
30
0 M
Mcf
/d (
1,2
50
M
W).
Rev
ise
d P
roje
ctio
n f
or
Win
ter
Pe
ak D
ay
Gas
Def
icit
wit
h “
Extr
em
e G
as P
rice
s”
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
-62
50
-50
00
-37
50
-25
00
-12
50
0
12
50
-15
00
-12
50
-10
00
-75
0
-50
0
-25
0 0
25
0
50
0
20
14
/15
2
01
5/1
6
20
16
/17
2
01
7/1
8
20
18
/19
2
01
9/2
0
MW Equivalent
1,000s of Dth/d
Extr
eme
Gas
Pri
ces,
90
/10
Lo
ad, S
eab
roo
k IN
Extr
eme
Gas
Pri
ces,
90
/10
Lo
ad, S
eab
roo
k O
UT
Po
we
r Se
cto
r W
inte
r P
eak
Day
Su
pp
ly D
efi
cits
, “E
xtre
me
Gas
Pri
ce”
Sce
nar
ios
Ass
um
ing
20
13
/14
We
ath
er
AIM
/Ten
nes
see
exp
ansi
on
s te
mp
ora
rily
re
du
ce d
efic
its
du
rin
g th
e w
inte
r o
f 2
01
6/1
7
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 18 of 20
000175
19
Sum
mar
y an
d C
on
clu
sio
ns
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
C
om
par
ed t
he
Ph
ase
II p
roje
ctio
ns,
th
e R
evis
ed p
roje
ctio
ns
for
gas
sup
plie
s av
aila
ble
to
ele
ctri
c ge
ner
atio
n
thro
ugh
ou
t th
e w
inte
r av
erag
e n
earl
y 5
00
MM
cf/d
low
er.
–R
evis
ed p
roje
ctio
n fo
r LD
C f
irm
dem
and
is s
ligh
tly
low
er o
n t
he
des
ign
day
(0
deg
ree
s F)
, bu
t h
igh
er o
n d
ays
wit
h
tem
per
atu
res
bet
wee
n 3
an
d 3
0 d
egre
es
F.
–Lo
wer
an
tici
pat
ed p
rod
uct
ion
fro
m E
aste
rn C
anad
ian
off
sho
re f
ield
s re
du
ces
exp
ecte
d s
up
plie
s vi
a M
&N
Pip
elin
e; C
anap
ort
LN
G s
end
ou
t lim
ited
to
on
ly t
he
hig
hes
t d
eman
d d
ays.
–D
istr
igas
sen
do
ut
this
win
ter
aver
aged
ab
ou
t 1
10
MM
cf/d
(~1
50
less
th
an
last
yea
r) d
esp
ite
cold
er t
emp
erat
ure
s.
G
iven
th
e p
roje
cted
gas
su
pp
lies,
ele
ctri
c sy
stem
rel
iab
ility
du
rin
g th
e w
inte
r m
on
ths
wo
uld
be
com
pro
mis
ed
by
sust
ain
ed c
old
wea
ther
.
–If
we
assu
me
“Ext
rem
e G
as P
rice
s” (
>$2
0/M
MB
tu, m
ean
ing
man
y o
il u
nit
s w
ou
ld b
e in
-mer
it) a
nd
th
e sa
me
wea
ther
co
nd
itio
ns
as t
his
pas
t w
inte
r, w
inte
r p
eak
day
gas
su
pp
lies
will
be
bar
ely
adeq
uat
e o
r sl
igh
tly
in d
efic
it t
hro
ugh
20
20
, a
s lo
ng
a
s th
ere
are
no
ma
jor
no
n-g
as
fire
d c
ap
aci
ty o
uta
ges
; a d
isru
pti
on
to
gas
su
pp
lies
or
a n
ucl
ear
un
it o
uta
ge w
ou
ld r
esu
lt in
a
seri
ou
s ga
s su
pp
ly d
efic
it.
D
uri
ng
the
sum
mer
, LD
C f
irm
dem
and
is o
nly
ab
ou
t 2
0%
of
the
win
ter
pea
k d
eman
d, s
o p
ipel
ine
cap
acit
y is
le
ss li
kely
to
be
con
stra
ined
.
–Th
e A
IM/T
enn
esse
e e
xpan
sio
ns
will
ad
d 4
14
MM
cf/d
of
cap
acit
y b
y N
ove
mb
er 2
01
6, s
o t
he
tota
l in
-bo
un
d p
ipel
ine
cap
acit
y w
ill in
crea
se t
o a
bo
ut
4,1
00
MM
cf/d
, wel
l ab
ove
pro
ject
ed s
um
me
r p
eak
day
ele
ctri
c se
cto
r ga
s d
eman
d.
•H
ow
ever
, th
at t
ota
l in
clu
des
83
3 M
Mcf
/d o
f ca
pac
ity
on
M&
N P
ipel
ine.
M&
N is
un
likel
y to
co
ntr
ibu
te m
uch
to
New
En
glan
d’s
su
mm
er g
as s
up
plie
s; in
fac
t, M
&N
can
act
ual
ly r
ever
sed
flo
w, r
edu
cin
g n
et s
up
plie
s av
aila
ble
in N
ew
En
glan
d.
–C
erta
in e
ven
ts o
r co
mb
inat
ion
s o
f ev
ents
(h
igh
load
co
nd
itio
ns,
pip
elin
e ca
pac
ity
off
line
for
mai
nte
nan
ce, n
ucl
ear
ou
tage
s,
etc.
) co
uld
res
ult
in a
gas
su
pp
ly c
on
stra
ints
eve
n w
ith
in t
he
sum
me
r.
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 19 of 20
000176
20
Qu
esti
on
s/C
om
men
ts
Ap
ril 2
9, 2
01
4 P
AC
Mee
tin
g
Docket No. IR 15-124 Comments of Eversource Energy
Attachment 8 Page 20 of 20
000177
