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September 2021 – Page 1
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
• Vietnam by Numbers looks at the key economic and sector data pertinent to Vietnam primarily through charts.
• The same set of charts and tables will be monitored and presented. Any commentary will be limited to the key changes that transpired and will be given the ‘less is best’ treatment,
• essentially letting the figures do the talking. • The charts and tables are broadly arranged along the categories of global/regional, domestic,
and sector related. The publication gives readers a quick snapshot of key macro, market, or sector data and used for internal or external presentations or needs.
CONTENT GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Fig 1: Global GDP Forecast (%) .................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average............................................................................................................................................................ 4 Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Fig 9: SJC Gold Premium to Spot Gold ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Fig 10: US Treasury Yields ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Fig 11: US Treasury & Real Yields ................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Fig 12: US Real Yields (Inverted) & Equities ................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Fig 13: US Treasury and Breakeven Yields ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Fig 14: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate ................................................................................................................................. 5 Fig 15: S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS (USDc) ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 Fig 16: US – Inflation rate (YoY) ................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Fig 17: US - Non Farm Payrolls (person thousand) ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 18: US – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 19: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth ............................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 20: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 21: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads ................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Fig 22: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries.................................................................................................................................. 6 Fig 23: Share of people vaccinated against COVID - 19 ............................................................................................................................................... 6
VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Fig 24: 2021 Government targets vs VinaCapital forecasts ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Fig 25: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%) ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 Fig 26: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%) ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Fig 27: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Fig 28: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%) .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Fig 29: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 Fig 30: ASEAN – Real GDP (%) ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Fig 31: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %) ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Fig 32: Vietnam – CPI (%) ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Fig 33: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%) .................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Fig 34: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %) ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Fig 35: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Fig 36: Vietnam – PMI ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Fig 37: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Fig 38: Currency (%, vs USD) ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Fig 39: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate ............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Fig 40: VND Trading Bands ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Fig 41: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Fig 42: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Fig 43: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued ............................................................................................................................................. 10 Fig 44: VN – Top Imports Products in 9M2021 .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Fig 45: VN – Top Exports Products in 9M2021 .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Fig 46: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 8M2021 ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Fig 47: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 8M2021 ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Fig 48: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 Fig 49: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%) ........................................................................................................................................... 11 Fig 50: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%) ................................................................................................................................................. 11 Fig 51: VN-Registered & Disbursed FDI (USDbn) ....................................................................................................................................................... 11
September 2021 – Page 2
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 52: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 9M2021 ......................................................................................................................................... 11 Fig 53: Vietnam – Top FDI Countries ......................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Fig 54: Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment ................................................................................................................................... 11 Fig 55: Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%) .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Fig 56: Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 Fig 57: Vietnam – Foreign Reserves .......................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Fig 58: Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)............................................................................................................................................................................ 12 Fig 59: Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown ............................................................................................................................................................. 12 Fig 60: Vietnam – Budget Balance (VND bn) ............................................................................................................................................................. 12 Fig 61: Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn) ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 62: ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 63: Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%) ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 64: VN – Employment & Labour Force Participation Rate ................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 65: Vietnam – Labour Force & Unemployment Rate ........................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 66: Vietnam – Monthly Minimum Wages by Region (VND mn) ........................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 67: Vietnam - Business registration situation ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 68: Vietnam - Google COVID-19 Community Mobility ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Fig 69: ASEAN – Stringency Index .............................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Fig 70: Vietnam – Vaccination rate (at least one COVID vaccine dose) ..................................................................................................................... 14
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Fig 71: VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Fig 72: ASEAN – Lending Rate (%) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Fig 73: Vietnam – Loans/GDP % ................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Fig 74: ASEAN – Loans/GDP % ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Fig 75: Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP % ................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Fig 76: ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19) ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 Fig 77: Vietnam – Loan Breakdown (%) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Fig 78: Vietnam – NIM (%) ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Fig 79: Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%) .................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Fig 80: Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%) ................................................................................................................................................. 16 Fig 81: Vietnam – LDR (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Fig 82: VN – Current Account & Savings Account, % share of deposits ..................................................................................................................... 16 Fig 83: Vietnam – CAR (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Fig 84: VN – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%) ................................................................................................................................ 16 Fig 85: Vietnam – Banks ROA (%) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Fig 86: Vietnam – Banks ROE (%) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Fig 87: Vietnam – Fee to Total Income (%) ................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Fig 88: Vietnam – Reserve Cover (%) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Fig 89: Vietnam – NPL Ratio (%) ................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Fig 90: Vietnam – New NPL Formation Rate (%) ....................................................................................................................................................... 17
VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Fig 91: Vietnam - Consumer Loans/GDP (%) ............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Fig 92: Vietnam - Consumer Loans & Credit Growth (%, yoy) ................................................................................................................................... 18 Fig 93: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD) .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Fig 94: Vietnam - Retail Sales (RS) & Consumer Confidence (%) ............................................................................................................................... 18 Fig 95: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales .................................................................................................................................. 18 Fig 96: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Fig 97: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers ............................................................................................................................. 18 Fig 98: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit) ............................................................................................................................... 18 Fig 99: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival .............................................................................................................................................................. 19 Fig 100: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%) .................................................................................................................................. 19 Fig 101: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC .......................................................................................................................................... 19 Fig 102: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in Hanoi........................................................................................................................................... 19 Fig 103: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in HCMC (USD/sqm) ....................................................................................................................... 19 Fig 104: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in Hanoi (USD/sqm) ........................................................................................................................ 19 Fig 105: Projects advertised by District in HCMC, YTD-June 21 ................................................................................................................................. 19 Fig 106: Projects advertised by District in Hanoi, YTD-July 21 ................................................................................................................................... 19 Fig 107: Projects advertised by Month in HCMC, YTD-21 .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Fig 108: Projects advertised by Month in Hanoi, YTD-21 .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Fig 109: ASEAN – Internet Use .................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Fig 110: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn)............................................................................................................................. 21 Fig 111: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 7M2021 .................................................................................................................................. 21 Fig 112: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2020 .............................................................................................................................. 21 Fig 113: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn) ...................................................................................................................................... 21 Fig 114: Vietnam – Estimated Volume Deficiency (kWh bn) ..................................................................................................................................... 21
September 2021 – Page 3
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Classified: Public
Fig 115: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn)......................................................................................................................................... 21 Fig 116: VN - Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market .................................................................................................................... 21 Fig 117: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh) .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Fig 118: Vietnam – Direct Generators (mn W) .......................................................................................................................................................... 22 Fig 119: Registered wind capacity for COD in 2021 by province (MW) ..................................................................................................................... 22 Fig 120: Vietnam power generation capacity and utilization rate ............................................................................................................................. 22 Fig 121: ASIA – LNG Demand .................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Fig 122: ASEAN – Wind capacity ................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 Fig 123: ASEAN – Power generation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Fig 124: ASEAN – Annual power consumption per capita ......................................................................................................................................... 22
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Fig 125: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%, USD term) ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 Fig 126: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance ............................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 127: Stock Market Performance (%, USD term) ................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 128: PER (x) – Vietnam vs ASEAN ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 129: PER (x) – Vietnam vs ASEAN ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 130: ASEAN – PER (x) ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 131: Valuation Band of VNIndex .......................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Fig 132: VN Historical Discount to ASEAN ................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Fig 133: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%) .................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 134: Vietnam – Consensus Net Profit Growth ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 135: ASEAN – Consensus Net Profit Growth ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Fig 136: VN – Average Daily Turnover (USD mn) ....................................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 137: VN – Average Daily Turnover by Sector (USD mn) ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 138: ASEAN – Average Daily Turnover (USD mn) ................................................................................................................................................. 24 Fig 139: Market Turnover by Investors (%) ............................................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 140: Number of Trading Accounts ....................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Fig 141: Vietnam – Margin leverage.......................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Fig 142: Vietnam – Brokers Margin Loans ................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Fig 143: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan ........................................................................................................................... 25 Fig 144: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 25 Fig 145: DXY vs VNI ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Fig 146: DXY vs MSCI EM ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Fig 147: ASEAN – Market Cap ................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
SECTOR VALUATION BANDS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Fig 148: Aviation – PER (x) ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Fig 149: Aviation – EV/EBITDA (x) .............................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Fig 150: Banks – PER (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Fig 151: Banks – PBR (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Fig 152: Brokers – PER (x) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Fig 153: Brokers – PBR (x) ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Fig 154: Consumer Discretionary – PER (x)................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Fig 155: Consumer Discretionary – EV/EBITDA (x) .................................................................................................................................................... 27 Fig 156: Consumer Staples – PER (x) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Fig 157: Consumer Staples – EV/EBITDA (x) .............................................................................................................................................................. 27 Fig 158: Industrial Parks – PER (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Fig 159: Industrial Parks – PBR (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................. 27 Fig 160: Materials & Cyclicals – PER (x) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Fig 161: Materials & Cyclicals – EV/EBITDA (x) .......................................................................................................................................................... 27 Fig 162: Oil & Gas – PER (x) ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Fig 163: Oil & Gas – EV/EBITDA (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Fig 164: Ports & Logistics – PER (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................ 28 Fig 165: Ports & Logistics – EV/EBITDA (x) ................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Fig 166: Property (Non Vingroup) – PER (x) ............................................................................................................................................................... 28 Fig 167: Property (Non Vingroup) – PBR (x) .............................................................................................................................................................. 28 Fig 168: Property (Vingroup Family) – PER (x) ........................................................................................................................................................... 28 Fig 169: Property (Vingroup Family) – PBR (x) ........................................................................................................................................................... 28 Fig 170: Tech & Telecom – PER (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................ 29 Fig 171: Tech & Telecom – EV/EBITDA (x) ................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Fig 172: Utilities – PER (x) .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Fig 173: Utilities – EV/EBITDA (x) ............................................................................................................................................................................... 29
September 2021 – Page 4
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
GLOBAL MACRO INDICATORS Fig 1: Global GDP Forecast (%)
2.8
-3.6
6.0
1.8
-6.0
4.7 5.4
-0.9
7.55.0
-4.1
4.32.3
-3.4
7.0 6.0
2.3
8.1
-10
-5
0
5
10
2019
2020
E20
21E
2019
2020
2021
E20
1920
2020
21E
2019
2020
2021
E20
1920
2020
21E
2019
2020
2021
E
World EU EmergingAsia
ASEAN-5 US China
Fig 2: OECD Leading Indicator
101.0
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of August 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 3: OECD Business & Consumer Confidence Indicator
94
96
98
100
102
104
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Consumer Confidence Business Confidence
Fig 4: VIX, S&P 500
21.0
4359.5
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
VIX Index (LHS) S&P 500
As of August 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 5: Nasdaq & Dow Jones Industrial Average
Fig 6: Brent Oil Price vs. Bbg Industrial Metals Index
162.2
78.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bbg Industrial Metals Index Brent oil price USD/barrel
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 7: Gold & Silver Prices
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Gold: 1726.4 USD/ozSi lver: 21.6 USD/oz
Gold Silver (RHS)
Fig 8: Bitcoin & Gold Prices
43126.3
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gold Bitcoin (RHS) As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Nasdaq: 14,512.4DJIA: 34,390.7
Nasdaq DJIA (RHS)
September 2021 – Page 5
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 9: SJC Gold Premium to Spot Gold
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25Se
p-17
Dec-
17M
ar-1
8Ju
n-18
Sep-
18De
c-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19Se
p-19
Dec-
19M
ar-2
0Ju
n-20
Sep-
20De
c-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21Se
p-21
Fig 10: US Treasury Yields
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
10Y Bond Yield 30Y Bond Yield2Y Bond Yield
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 11: US Treasury & Real Yields
-2-1012345
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
10Y Bond Yield 10Y Real Yield
Fig 12: US Real Yields (Inverted) & Equities
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
30
1000
2000
3000
4000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
SPX Index 10Y Real Yield (RHS)
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 13: US Treasury and Breakeven Yields
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
10Y US Breakeven Yield 10Y Bond Yield
Fig 14: 10 Year Gov’t bond yields (US, EU, JP) vs FED Fund Rate
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
10Y US Gov't Yield 10Y Japan Gov't Yield10Y EU Gov't Yield FED Fund rate
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 15: S&P 500 & Forward 12M EPS (USDc)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
S&P 500 Forward EPS (RHS)
Fig 16: US – Inflation rate (YoY)
5.3
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-
16M
ar-1
7Ju
n-17
Sep-
17De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18Se
p-18
Dec-
18M
ar-1
9Ju
n-19
Sep-
19De
c-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20Se
p-20
Dec-
20M
ar-2
1Ju
n-21
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of August 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 6
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 17: US - Non Farm Payrolls (person thousand)
235
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000Fe
b-17
May
-17
Aug-
17N
ov-1
7Fe
b-18
May
-18
Aug-
18N
ov-1
8Fe
b-19
May
-19
Aug-
19N
ov-1
9Fe
b-20
May
-20
Aug-
20N
ov-2
0Fe
b-21
May
-21
Aug-
21
Fig 18: US – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mill
ions
362k
As of August 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 25/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 19: Global Manufacturing PMI, IP & Trade Growth
0
20
40
60
-20
0
20
CPB Trade Vol index YoY CPB World IP YoYJPM global mfg PM SA (RHS)
Fig 20: iTraxx Asia IG CDS Spreads
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
iTraxx Asia IG CDS spreads
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 21: ASEAN 4 – Sovereign CDS spreads
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Philippines Thailand Indonesia Vietnam
Fig 22: Vietnam – FTAs between Vietnam and Other Countries
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: VCCI, Houselink
Fig 23: Share of people vaccinated against COVID - 19
Source: ourworldindata.org
September 2021 – Page 7
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
VIETNAM MACRO INDICATORS Fig 24: 2021 Government targets vs VinaCapital forecasts
2021 Government Plans vs VinaCapital Forecasts Government targets VinaCapital Forecasts
GDP Growth 6.5% 1.5%VND NA VND to appreciate 1-2%
4% (on adjusted GDP)5% (on unadjusted GDP)46.1% (on adjusted GDP)59.6% (on unadjusted GDP)41.9% (on adjusted GDP)53.2% (on unadjusted GDP)
Budget Deficit/GDP NA
Public Debt/GDP NA
Government Debt/GDP NA
Source: VinaCapital
Fig 25: Vietnam – Annual GDP YoY Growth (%)
2.9
1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021FVNC
Fig 26: Vietnam – Quarterly GDP YoY Growth (%)
-6.2-8-6-4-202468
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: GSO, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 27: Vietnam - GDP per Capita (USD)
Fig 28: ASEAN – Real GDP YoY Growth (%)
7.0
2.91.5
5.0
-2.1
3.9 4.4
-5.6
4.75.9
-9.6
5.4
1.3
-5.4
5.2
2.3
-6.1
2.1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2019
2020
2021
E20
1920
2020
21E
2019
2020
2021
E20
1920
2020
21E
2019
2020
2021
E20
1920
2020
21E
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Source: CEIC, Statista for 2021E, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 29: Vietnam – Real GDP by Industry GDP
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21GDP, YoY Growth 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.0 2.9 4.5 4.5 6.6 -6.2Agri., Forestry and Fishery 2.4 1.4 2.9 3.8 2.0 2.7 4.7 3.2 4.1 1.0Industry and Construction 9.6 7.6 8.0 8.9 8.9 4.0 5.6 6.3 10.3 -5.0Services 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.3 2.3 4.3 3.3 4.3 -9.3Net indirect taxes 5.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.5 1.7 1.1 4.3 5.5 -6.2% share of GDPAgri., Forestry and Fishery 16.1 15.3 14.8 14.3 13.7 13.6 13.0 10.6 11.0 13.0Industry and Construction 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 36.2 36.6 37.4 36.6 38.3 37.5Services 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.7 39.1 42.8 41.3 40.1Net indirect taxes 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.4 9.4 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
12731517
17481907 2052 2097 2202
23732570 2715 2779
3609
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
September 2021 – Page 8
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 30: ASEAN – Real GDP (%)
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 31: Vietnam – CPI, PPI (YoY, Quarterly, %)
2.1
0.70.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Mar
-17
Jun-
17Se
p-17
Dec-
17M
ar-1
8Ju
n-18
Sep-
18De
c-18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19Se
p-19
Dec-
19M
ar-2
0Ju
n-20
Sep-
20De
c-20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21Se
p-21
CPI Core CPI PPI
Fig 32: Vietnam – CPI (%)
2.1
-0.6
-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jun-
17
Sep-
17
Dec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep-
18
Dec-
18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep-
19
Dec-
19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep-
20
Dec-
20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Sep-
21
YoY MoM (RHS) As of September 2021 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of September 2021 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 33: Vietnam – CPI Key Categories (%)
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Others TransportationHealthcare Housing & Const'n MaterialsFoods CPI
Fig 34: ASEAN – CPI (YoY, %)
2.1
1.62.0
4.9
2.4
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia
Philippines Singapore Thailand As of September 2021 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
As of August 21; VN as of September 21 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
VN ID MY PH SG TH VN ID MY SG THGDP, YoY Growth 7.0 5.0 4.3 5.9 1.3 2.3 2.9 -2.1 -5.6 -5.4 -6.1Government consumption 5.8 3.3 2.0 10.5 3.4 1.7 6.2 1.9 4.1 12.6 0.8Private consumption 7.4 5.0 7.6 5.8 3.3 4.0 0.6 -2.6 -4.3 -14.1 -1.0Gross Capital Formation 8.3 4.5 -2.1 1.5 1.2 2.0 - -4.9 -14.5 -13.7 -4.8Change in stocks 3.8 -34.2 - -195.7 -27.5 -57.1 - -60.5 - -35.3 38.9Net Exports: Goods & Services - 172.3 9.7 - -0.2 22.8 - 55.5 -12.3 11.6 -74.5% share of GDPGovernment consumption 6.3 7.8 12.2 11.6 10.3 14.6 6.5 8.1 13.4 12.2 15.7Private consumption 67.9 54.2 58.7 68.4 37.5 51.8 66.4 53.9 59.5 34.0 54.6Gross Capital Formation 31.7 32.9 23.1 29.2 24.6 23.8 - 31.9 20.9 22.5 24.2Change in stocks 2.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.3 1.5 1.0 - 0.5 -0.4 1.0 1.5Net Exports: Goods & Services - 2.1 7.0 - 26.9 7.1 - 3.3 6.5 31.7 1.9
2019 2020
September 2021 – Page 9
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 35: Vietnam – CPI Breakdown (%)
2017 2018 2019 2020 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21CPI, yoy Growth 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.1Core inflation yoy Growth 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7Foods and Foodstuffs -1.1 3.2 4.1 10.0 1.0 -0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3Housing & Const'n Materials 4.3 3.3 3.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 4.4 4.3 1.6Health and Personal Care 42.3 10.8 3.8 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Transportation 6.8 6.4 -1.0 -11.2 21.2 15.5 13.8 13.6 13.6% contribution for yoy growthFoods and Foodstuffs -11.1 33.0 52.5 111.8 11.6 -4.6 6.6 13.7 21.1Housing & Const'n Materials 19.1 14.8 17.1 8.7 19.0 31.4 31.7 29.0 14.9Health and Personal Care 60.4 15.4 6.9 3.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5Transportation 18.0 16.9 -3.5 -32.5 70.8 62.4 50.6 46.7 63.8Others 13.5 20.0 27.0 8.4 -1.7 10.5 10.8 10.3 -0.3
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 36: Vietnam – PMI
40.2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 37: Vietnam vs. Asia PMI
50.8
40.2
3034384246505458
Jun-
18
Sep-
18
Dec-
18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep-
19
Dec-
19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep-
20
Dec-
20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Sep-
21Asia Vietnam
As of September 21 Source: IHS Markit As of September 21 Source: IHS Markit Fig 38: Currency (%, vs USD)
0.1 0.3 1.54.2
-0.6-2.7
1.1 1.7
-3.9
3.35.7
-6.0
1.4 1.8
-2.7
8.6
-0.8
-10.9
0.2
-6.7
4.8
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
VN ID MY PH SG TH DXY
Fig 39: DXY Index & VND/USD Exchange Rate
94.3
72
77
82
87
92
97
102
107
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
VND/USD DXY (RHS) As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Updated weights of CPI basket 2020-2025Overal CPI index YoY 100.00
Food and foodstuffs 33.56 Food 3.67 Foodstuffs 21.28
Food services 8.61Beverage and tobacco 2.73Garment. footwear. 5.70Housing & material construction 18.82Household goods 6.74Medicaments and health care 5.39Transportation 9.67Telecommunication 3.14Education 6.17Culture. sport. entertainments 4.55Other consumer goods & services 3.53
September 2021 – Page 10
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 40: VND Trading Bands
Fig 41: Vietnam – Bond Yields (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep-
18
Dec-
18
Mar
-19
Jun-
19
Sep-
19
Dec-
19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Sep-
20
Dec-
20
Mar
-21
Jun-
21
Sep-
21
1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 15Y
As of 30/06/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 42: Vietnam – Government bond issuing rate
Fig 43: Vietnam - Total value of OMO and T-bill issued
Source: SBV, VBMA, SSI Source: SBV, Bloomberg, SSI
Fig 44: VN – Top Imports Products in 9M2021
22%
14%
6%4%4%4%
3%3%
2%
38%
PCs & electronic itemsMachinery & equipmentMobile &spare partsFabricsPlasticsIron & steelOther Base MetalsAutomobiles (AM)Plastics ProductsOthers
Fig 45: VN – Top Exports Products in 9M2021
17%
15%
11%
10%5%5%3%
3%
3%
28%
Mobile & Spare partsPCs & electronic itemsMachinery & EquipmentTextiles & GarmentsFootwearWood & Wooden productsIron & SteelTransportation vehiclesFisheryOthers
Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital Source: Customs (Preliminary), VinaCapital
Fig 46: Vietnam – Top Imports Countries in 8M2021
33%
16%13%
7%
6%
5%
5%
3% 12%
China
South Korea
ASEAN
Japan
Taiwan
EU
US
Australia
Others
Fig 47: Vietnam – Top Exports Countries in 8M2021
29%
16%
12%9%
7%
6%
3%
2%1% 15%
US
China
EU
ASEAN
South Korea
Japan
HongKong
India
UAE
Others
Source: Customs, VinaCapital Source: Customs, VinaCapital
19500
20500
21500
22500
23500
24500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Interbank rate Lower band Uer Band Unofficial Mkt
September 2021 – Page 11
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 48: Vietnam – Overview of Imports/Exports
(USD bn) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD-21
Total Imports and Exports 264.1 298.1 327.6 351.4 428.1 480.6 517.7 545.3 483.2Total Exports 132.0 150.2 162.0 176.6 215.1 243.7 264.3 282.6 240.5
%yoy 15.3 13.8 7.9 9.0 21.8 13.3 8.4 6.9 18.8Total Imports 132.0 147.8 165.6 174.8 213.0 236.9 253.4 262.7 242.7
%yoy 16.0 12.0 12.0 5.6 21.9 11.2 7.0 3.7 30.5Trade Surplus/ Deficit 0.0 2.4 -3.6 1.8 2.1 6.8 10.9 19.9 -2.1
Domestic Companies -6.5 -7.4 -16.9 -19.7 -22.6 -23.0 -23.6 -13.9 -21.0
FDI Companies 6.5 9.7 13.3 21.4 24.7 29.8 34.5 33.8 18.9 Source: Customs, YTD-September 21 GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 49: Vietnam - Investment YoY Growth by Sector (%)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD-21
Total investment 8.9 12.3 11.2 10.3 5.7 0.4
State 7.3 6.9 3.8 2.9 14.5 -4.7
Non-State 9.5 17.1 18.5 17.3 3.1 3.9
Foreign-Sector 10.4 12.8 9.8 7.9 -1.3 -3.4
Total investment/GDP 33.0 33.4 33.5 33.9 34.4 31.2
Fig 50: Vietnam – Investment Weight By Sector (%)
38.5 38.1 37.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 40.6 43.3 46.0 44.9 58.9
24.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.4 22.9 21.4 16.5
36.9 40.2 40.4 39.9 38.0 37.5 35.7 33.3 31.1 33.7 24.6
State Non State FDI As of September 2021 Source: GSO, CEIC, VinaCapital As of September 2021 Source: GSO, CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 51: VN-Registered & Disbursed FDI (USDbn)
8.716.0 9.0 10.8 9.1 6.7
-2.0 -3.5-6.5 12.5
-8.0
41.7
-13.9 -11.8 -6.6
22.3
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD-21
(%)USD bn
FDI Disbursement (USD bn)FDI Registered (exl. Purchased stocks) (USD bn)%yoy FDI Disb. (RHS)%yoy FDI Regis.(RHS)
Fig 52: Vietnam – Registered FDI Breakdown in 9M2021
54%25%
8%
3%
3%3% 4% Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Air Con Supply
Real Estate Activities
Whsle, Retail Trade, MVRepairProfessional, Scientific, Tech
Transportation, Storage
As of September 2021 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Fig 53: Vietnam – Top FDI Countries
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 9M21
Singapore Korea Japan China HK
SG: 29.5%KR: 18.0%JP: 16.3%CH: 12%HK: 9.3%
Fig 54: Vietnam – Direct Investment vs Portfolio Investment
3.8
8.110.7 11.6
13.614.9 15.7 15.4
7.3
0.3 0.1
-0.1
0.22.1 3.0 3.0
-1.3
0.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Direct investment (USD bn) Portfolio investment (USD bn) Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 12
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 55: Vietnam – Current Account & BoP/GDP (%)
-2.3
2.9
-4-202468
10
Current Account/GDP (%) BOP/GDP (%)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 56: Vietnam – Balance of Payment Accounts
USD mn 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD-Jun21Current account -2,039 625 -1,651 5,769 12,168 14,967 -3,972
Goods trade balance (f.o.b.) 7,375 11,042 10,845 16,540 21,221 30,615 5,540Services trade balance -4,765 -4,258 -4,030 -3,810 -1,501 -10,287 -7,702Investment income (primary) -12,150 -14,144 -16,994 -15,818 -16,795 -14,817 -7,932Transfers (secondary) 7,501 7,985 8,528 8,857 9,243 9,456 6,122
Financial account 967 10,726 20,027 8,466 18,971 8,484 16,161Direct investment (net) 10,700 11,600 13,620 14,902 15,670 15,420 7,284Portfolio investment (net) -65 228 2,069 3,021 2,998 -1,256 217Other investment (net) -9,668 -1,102 4,338 -9,457 303 -5,681 8,660
Net errors and omissions -4,959 -2,961 -5,832 -8,204 -7,885 -6,819 -7,248Overall balance -6,032 8,390 12,544 6,031 23,254 16,632 4,941Current Account/GDP (%) -1.1 0.3 -0.7 2.4 4.6 5.5 -2.3BOP/GDP (%) -3.1 4.1 5.6 2.5 8.9 6.1 2.9 Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 57: Vietnam – Foreign Reserves
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YTD-
Jun2
1
Total Reserve Minus Gold (USD bn) (LHS)Import Cover (RHS)
Fig 58: Vietnam – Debt (as % GDP)
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital
Abc Fig 59: Vietnam – External Debt Breakdown
Fig 60: Vietnam – Budget Balance (VND bn)
-4.7 -4.3 -3.6-2.7 -2.8 -2.7
-4.0
2.2
-4.0
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Budget Balance % GDP (RHS) Source: MOF, VinaCapital Source: MOF, VinaCapital
55.059.6
48.053.2
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019P2020E
Public Debt: % of GDPGovernment Debt: % of GDPNational External Debt: % of GDPExternal Debt CapPublic Debt Cap
49% 47% 42% 42% 44%
51% 53% 58% 58% 56%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Government Enterprise
September 2021 – Page 13
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 61: Vietnam – Remittances (USD bn)
Fig 62: ASEAN - Remittances (USD bn)
Source: World Bank, VinaCapital Source: World Bank, VinaCapital
Fig 63: Vietnam – Urbanization rate (%)
18.319.9
37.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
2019
Fig 64: VN – Employment & Labour Force Participation Rate
Source: CEIC As of June 2021 Source: GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 65: Vietnam – Labour Force & Unemployment Rate
Fig 66: Vietnam – Monthly Minimum Wages by Region (VND mn)
Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: GSO, VinaCapital
Fig 67: Vietnam - Business registration situation
2014: 52,192 2015: 68,347
2016: 81,451 2017: 93,967
2018: 96,611
2019: 102,300
2020:134,900
YTD-21: 85,500
2014: 41,303 2015: 47,604
2016: 45,097
2017: 49,345
2018: 73,103
2019: 49,400
2020: 84,300
YTD-21: 77,489
Newly established enterprisesEnterprises suspending operation
Fig 68: Vietnam - Google COVID-19 Community Mobility
-100-80-60-40-20
02040
Retail and recreation Grocery and pharmacyResidential Transit stationsParks Workplaces
As of September 2021 Source: GSO, VinaCapital Source: Google, VinaCapital
4.33.4
5.0 5.34.7
5.5 5.7
8.0
6.9
5.7
7.16.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.5
5.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
5
10
15
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
E
VN as % of GDP
14.015.015.917.015.7
8.9 9.011.211.7
9.8
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4
31.132.833.8
35.233.3
6.3 6.7 7.5 7.1 6.1
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
E20
1620
1720
1820
1920
20E
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
E20
1620
1720
1820
1920
20E
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
E
VN ID MY PH TH
% of GDP in 2019 VN: 6.5%; ID: 1%; MY: 0.5%; PH: 9.3%; TH: 1.3%
74.4
68
70
72
74
76
78
46
48
50
52
54
56
Dec-
16M
ar-1
7Ju
n-17
Sep-
17De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18Se
p-18
Dec-
18M
ar-1
9Ju
n-19
Sep-
19De
c-19
Mar
-20
Jun-
20Se
p-20
Dec-
20M
ar-2
1Ju
n-21
Employment (person mn)Labour Force Participation Rate (RHS)
49.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
46
48
50
52
54
56
Employment (person mn)Unemployment rate (%, RHS)Underemployment Rate (% RHS)
1.49
4.42
3.923.43
3.07
0
1
2
3
4
5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
VND mn
General Region I Region IIRegion III Region IV
September 2021 – Page 14
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 69: ASEAN – Stringency Index
Fig 70: Vietnam – Vaccination rate (at least one COVID vaccine dose)
Source: ourworldindata.org Source: ourworldindata.org
September 2021 – Page 15
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
VIETNAM BANKING SYSTEM Fig 71: VND Interbank Deposit Rate by Term
(1.00)
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
ON 1W 1M 3M
Fig 72: ASEAN – Lending Rate (%)
-
5
10
15
20
VN ID MYPH SG TH
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: SBV, Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 73: Vietnam – Loans/GDP %
Fig 74: ASEAN – Loans/GDP %
Source: SBV, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 75: Vietnam – Mortgage Loans/GDP %
Fig 76: ASEAN – Mortgage Loans/GDP (%, YE19)
5.9% 3.5%
39.8%
4.1%
49.3%
23.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
VN ID MY PH SG TH
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
Fig 77: Vietnam – Loan Breakdown (%)
Fig 78: Vietnam – NIM (%)
3.1
4.8
3.8
1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Source: Data of 11 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage abc
95.2 97.0 100.8111.0
122.3130.0 130.3 135.7
146.0
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
130 136146
32 33 32
117 120 121
46 4859
121 119 121112 112 111
2018
2019
2020
E
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
2017
2018
2019
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
4
4.6
5.25.5 5.7 5.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
25 30 33 37 40 35 45
52 51 51 49 49 51 40
20 16 13 11 8 108
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Retail loans (% of loans) SOE loans (% of loans)FDI loans (% of loans) Corp loans (% of loans)
September 2021 – Page 16
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 79: Vietnam – Credit YoY Growth (%)
Fig 80: Vietnam – Credit & Deposit YoY Growth (%)
12.514.2
17.318.3 18.2
13.9
13.712.2
15.3
23.0 19.4
14.3
17.7
14.112.8
13.9 14.0
12.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD-21
Credit Growth Deposit Growth
Source: SBV As of July 2021 Source: SBV, GSO, VinaCapital Fig 81: Vietnam – LDR (%)
97.4
100.498.6
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Fig 82: VN – Current Account & Savings Account, % share of deposits
20.3
19.5
20.520.0
20.6
23.2 23.1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Fig 83: Vietnam – CAR (%)
Fig 84: VN – Total Assets & Regulatory Capital YoY Growth (%)
Source: IMF, CEIC, VinaCapital Source: IMF, CEIC, SBV, VinaCapital
Fig 85: Vietnam – Banks ROA (%)
1.2
2.4
1.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Fig 86: Vietnam – Banks ROE (%)
19.1
24.2
21.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage
abc
21.0
37.7
29.8
10.98.9
12.514.2
17.3 18.3 18.2
13.9 13.712.2 12.0
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
10.310.9
9.4 9.49.9 9.5 9.5 10.2
9.0
14.0
12.612.1
12.711.8 11.5 11.2
10.5 10.9
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
State-Owned Banks JSC Banks
40.4
18.9 5.413.9
10.3
15.7
16.4 18.6
10.9
17.711.5
30.5
34.0
-5.8
27.5
2.8
20.4
10.412.4
12.017.9
31.6
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total Assets Growth Regulatory Capital Growth
September 2021 – Page 17
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 87: Vietnam – Fee to Total Income (%)
10.1
12.311.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Fig 88: Vietnam – Reserve Cover (%)
166.6
102.5139.7
0
50
100
150
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Fig 89: Vietnam – NPL Ratio (%)
1.3
1.41.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks
Fig 90: Vietnam – New NPL Formation Rate (%)
1.00.9
1.21.1 1.1 1.1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21
Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Source: Data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage
September 2021 – Page 18
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
VIETNAM DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION Fig 91: Vietnam - Consumer Loans/GDP (%)
Fig 92: Vietnam - Consumer Loans & Credit Growth (%, yoy)
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 93: Retail Sales & GDP per Capita (USD)
Fig 94: Vietnam - Retail Sales (RS) & Consumer Confidence (%)
50
70
90
110
130
150
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-
15
Jun-
15
Nov
-15
Apr-
16
Sep-
16
Feb-
17
Jul-1
7
Dec-
17
May
-18
Oct
-18
Mar
-19
Aug-
19
Jan-
20
Jun-
20
Nov
-20
Apr-
21
Sep-
21
Consumer confidence (RHS) Retail Sales: YoY: ytd (Vietnam)
RS: -7.1% yoyRS (inflation adj.): -8.7% yoy
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 95: ASEAN – % Share of E-Commerce to Total Retail Sales
Fig 96: ASEAN – YoY Growth of E-Commerce Value
Source: Euromonitor International Source: Euromonitor International
Fig 97: Vietnam – Number of Supermarkets & Shopping Centers
Fig 98: Vietnam – Motor Vehicle Sales (Incl MBV & Lexus, unit)
157,485
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
abc
5.9 5.8 5.5 5.2
10.4
14.3
21.1
25.227.7
29.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0
30
60
90
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumer loans growth System credit growth
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Retail sales per capita (USD) GDP per capita (USD)
1.9 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.8 3.34.7
7.3 6.88.3 9.1
15.6
1.9 2.84.4
8.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
32.925.0
18.0
29.636.5
25.4
48.7 47.9
31.423.8
10.5
53.7
21.1
53.060.6
71.0
01020304050607080
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017
2018
2019
2020
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Thailand
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
No. of Supermarkets No. of Commercial Centers
September 2021 – Page 19
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 99: Vietnam – Number of Visitor Arrival
18.0
-0.226.0 29.1
19.9
16.2
-78.7-97.0
-
5
10
15
20
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50mn people
Visitor Arrival (person mn)By Airways (person mn)
Fig 100: Vietnam – Visitor Arrival YoY Growth by Country (%)
16.9
-83.5 -95.1
6.4
-69.0
-98.4
15.2
-78.4-97.1
23.1
-80.4
-97.2
12.2
-80.7-99.3
45.9
-74.9
-98.3
29.8
-78.8-95.8
8.6
-76.7
-98.4-120-100
-80-60-40-20
0204060
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
Y19
Y20
YTD
-21
CN EU JP KR MY TH TW US
Source: CEIC, VinaCapital As of September 21 Source: CEIC, VinaCapital
Fig 101: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in HCMC
Fig 102: Vietnam -- New Supply and Sold Units in Hanoi
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Fig 103: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in HCMC (USD/sqm)
Fig 104: Vietnam – Condo Primary Selling Price in Hanoi (USD/sqm)
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Fig 105: Projects advertised by District in HCMC, YTD-June 21
Fig 106: Projects advertised by District in Hanoi, YTD-July 21
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2018 2019 2020 2021
New supply Sold volume
- 3,000 6,000 9,000
12,000 15,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q34 Q
1
Q2
2018 2019 2020 2021
New supply Sold volume
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
US$ per sqm
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021High-end Mid-end Affordable
US$ per sqm
21%
16%
12%11%
9%
14%
8%
3%6% District 9
District 2Thu DucDistrict 8Binh ThanhDistrict 7Binh ChanhDistrict 5District 12
33%
17%10%
9%
9%
7%
7%4% 4%
Nam Tu Liem Others
Hoang Mai Hoai Duc
Gia Lam Dong Da
Long Bien Ha Dong
Ecopark
September 2021 – Page 20
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 107: Projects advertised by Month in HCMC, YTD-21
Fig 108: Projects advertised by Month in Hanoi, YTD-21
Source: CBRE Source: CBRE
Fig 109: ASEAN – Internet Use
Source: internetworldstats.com
010203040506070
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
2020 2021
No. of projects No. of advertisements
0102030405060708090
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
ar Apr
May Jun Jul
2020 2021
No. of projects No. of advertisements
75.9 212.4 29.2 91.0 5.2 58.5
77.4 76.889.0 81.9 87.7 83.6
Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Internet Users (mn) Internet Penetration (%)
September 2021 – Page 21
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
VIETNAM POWER INDUSTRY Fig 110: Vietnam – Total Power Production & Demand (kWh bn)
115129 144
160 175193
209 216
130128143
160177
193212
231 245
157
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD7M21
TWh
Total demand Total Production & Purchases
Fig 111: Vietnam – Power Production and Purchase 7M2021
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 112: VN – Electricity Generation Capacity by Investors 2020
36%88.0
15%36.8
7%17.7
14%33.3
8%19.2
20%50.0
0102030405060708090
100
EVN GENCO1 GENCO2 GENCO3 POW Others
Fig 113: Vietnam - Electricity Demand by Sector (kWh mn)
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 114: Vietnam – Estimated Volume Deficiency (kWh bn)
Fig 115: Vietnam – Electricity Imports/Exports (kWh mn)
Source: MOIT Source: MOIT
Fig 116: VN - Market Ceiling Price for Competitive Generation Market
Fig 117: Average Retail Price – All Users ($c/kWh)
Source: EVN Source: MOIT
Abc
50.7%
25.3%
11.8%
11.4%
0.5%
CoalHydroGasOther renewablesImport
3.7
10.0
12.0
7.0
3.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E
Import from China Import from LaosExporting to Cambodia Exporting to Laos
4.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Jan-
19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-1
9
Sep-
19
Nov
-19
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Mar
-21
May
21
Jul 2
1
USce
nt/k
Wh
5.65.9
6.5
7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.57.9 8.0
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
USce
nt/k
Wh
September 2021 – Page 22
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 118: Vietnam – Direct Generators (mn W)
69,300
26,989
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MW
Fig 119: Registered wind capacity for COD in 2021 by province (MW)
1,043
752
462410400397373337302276235224199
86605050
Source: EVN Source: EVN
Fig 120: Vietnam power generation capacity and utilization rate
82%
37.9
46.4
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0
Jul-1
4
Nov
-14
Mar
-15
Jul-1
5
Nov
-15
Mar
-16
Jul-1
6
Nov
-16
Mar
-17
Jul-1
7
Nov
-17
Mar
-18
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Mar
-19
Jul-1
9
Nov
-19
Mar
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Mar
-21
GW
Utilization rate (RHS) Maximum demand Usable capacity excl. small HPP, import, oil
Source: MOIT
Fig 121: ASIA – LNG Demand
68.19
54.70
8.351.30 1.43
6.82
16.61
1.84
China Japan Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
mn
ton
2010 2015 2020 2025
Fig 122: ASEAN – Wind capacity
154 443 1,508
477 829 1,908 1,796
12,599
Indonesia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
MW
2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Fig 123: ASEAN – Power generation
275
176 160
234
102
53
Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Singapore
TWh
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fig 124: ASEAN – Annual power consumption per capita
1.0
4.8
0.9
9.2
2.4
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Vietnam
MW
h/pe
r cap
ita
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
September 2021 – Page 23
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
VIETNAM CAPITAL MARKETS Fig 125: MSCI Index vs. VNIndex (%, USD term)
24.0
14.310.5
25.2
14.1 12.615.4 15.8
-3.1
5.2
-9.3-4.3
7.7
15.2
23.4
-15-10
-505
1015202530
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
2019
2020
YTD
-21
Global DevelopedMkt.
Emerging Mkt. ASEAN VN-Index
Fig 126: VN-Index & MSCI Global Index Performance
-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Developed Mkt. ASEAN GlobalEmerging Mkt. VN-Index
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source:Bloomberg,VinaCapital Fig 127: Stock Market Performance (%, USD term)
VN IN MY PH SG TH2018 -11.2 -8.8 -7.6 -17.0 -11.6 -10.82019 7.7 6.1 -5.0 8.2 6.5 9.72020 15.2 -5.9 4.2 -3.3 -10.2 -8.3YTD-21 23.4 3.1 -9.2 -8.5 5.5 -1.4
-20
0
20
40
Fig 128: PER (x) – Vietnam vs ASEAN
12 x 16 x 15 x16 x 17 x 18 x18 x 18 x 20 x
29%
9% 17%
35%
16%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0 x
5 x
10 x
15 x
20 x
25 x
2011-15 2016-19 2021
Vietnam ASEAN-5 TIP Discount to ASEAN-5 Discount to TIP
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Fiinpro, VinaCapital Fig 129: PER (x) – Vietnam vs ASEAN
9 x
12 x 13 x 13 x 13 x15 x 15 x
17 x15 x 14 x
15 x14 x
16 x 15 x
18 x 18 x16 x 16 x
18 x 18 x 18 x
-3 x
2 x
7 x
12 x
17 x
22 x
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Vietnam ASEAN-5
Fig 130: ASEAN – PER (x)
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 131: Valuation Band of VNIndex
-2std
-1std
+1std
+2std
Mean
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21
Fig 132: VN Historical Discount to ASEAN
38%
28% 19%31% 30%
8%5%
7%
16% 17%
46%
35%
17%
38% 39%
19%
15%
8%
22% 22%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ASEAN-5 TIP
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
VN IN MY PH SG TH2020 17.3 38.9 22.9 32.5 38.2 36.42021F 15.1 18.1 14.4 19.7 14.3 19.32022F 12.5 15.0 14.6 15.6 12.5 17.2
0
20
40
60
September 2021 – Page 24
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 133: ASEAN – Net Profit Growth (%)
VN ID MY PH SG TH2020 (0.7) (52.7) (19.2) (48.8) (70.7) (54.8)2021F 35.8 175.2 27.0 50.8 167.3 92.82022F 22.6 19.5 12.5 25.8 15.2 12.8
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Fig 134: Vietnam – Consensus Net Profit Growth
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 135: ASEAN – Consensus Net Profit Growth
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
180%
210%
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21
ID MY PH TH SG (RHS)
Fig 136: VN – Average Daily Turnover (USD mn)
924.3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Jan-
21Fe
b-21
Mar
-21
Apr-2
1M
ay-2
1Ju
n-21
Jul-2
1Au
g-21
Sep-
21
As of 29/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 137: VN – Average Daily Turnover by Sector (USD mn)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21
Materials Consumer Staples FinancialsConsumer Discretionary Real Estate IndustrialsEnergy Utilities Information TechnologyHealth Care
Fig 138: ASEAN – Average Daily Turnover (USD mn)
865.3 816.4
235.082.3
694.2
2,582.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
VN ID MY PH SG TH
2019 2020 YTD-21
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital As of 30/09/2021 Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg, VinaCapital Fig 139: Market Turnover by Investors (%)
86%
6%8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Local retail (%) Local institution (%) Foreign institution (%)
Fig 140: Number of Trading Accounts
020406080100120140160
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Apr-
17Ju
n-17
Aug-
17O
ct-1
7De
c-17
Feb-
18Ap
r-18
Jun-
18Au
g-18
Oct
-18
Dec-
18Fe
b-19
Apr-
19Ju
n-19
Aug-
19O
ct-1
9De
c-19
Feb-
20Ap
r-20
Jun-
20Au
g-20
Oct
-20
Dec-
20Fe
b-21
Apr-
21Ju
n-21
Aug-
21
Retail No. new account-RHS As of 30/09/2021 Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg Source: VSD
September 2021 – Page 25
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 141: Vietnam – Margin leverage
Fig 142: Vietnam – Brokers Margin Loans
Source: Fiinpro Source: Fiinpro
Fig 143: Number of State Divestment 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan
Fig 144: Number of SOE IPOs 2016 – 2020: Actual vs Plan
Source: Fiinpro Source: Fiinpro
Fig 145: DXY vs VNI
70
80
90
100
110
120
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
VNI DXY
1342.1
94.3
Fig 146: DXY vs MSCI EM
70
80
90
100
110
120
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
MSCI EM DXY As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg
Fig 147: ASEAN – Market Cap
226
536
246
182
371
547
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
VN IN MY PH SG TH
As of 30/09/2021 Source: Bloomberg
1.8% 1.9%
1.0%
4.3%
5.0%
2.3%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
3Q18
1Q19
3Q19
1Q20
3Q20
1Q21
Margin loans / mkt cap Margin loans / free float
45.8
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19
4Q19
1Q20
2Q20
3Q20
4Q20
1Q21
(VND tn)
Margin loans (VND trillion) YoY chg (RHS)
0 100 200 300 400 500
Total
2020
1H19
2018
2017
Planned divestment Actual divestment
0 50 100 150
Total
2020
1H19
2018
2017
Planned IPO Actual IPO
September 2021 – Page 26
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
SECTOR VALUATION BANDS • Historical PER, PBR and/or EV/EBITDA valuation bands of sectors under VinaCapital coverage
as of end-Sep 30, 2021.
Fig 148: Aviation – PER (x)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 149: Aviation – EV/EBITDA (x)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 150: Banks – PER (x)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 151: Banks – PBR (x)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 152: Brokers – PER (x)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 153: Brokers – PBR (x)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 27
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 154: Consumer Discretionary – PER (x)
4
9
14
19
24
29
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 155: Consumer Discretionary – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 156: Consumer Staples – PER (x)
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 157: Consumer Staples – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 158: Industrial Parks – PER (x)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 159: Industrial Parks – PBR (x)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 160: Materials & Cyclicals – PER (x)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 161: Materials & Cyclicals – EV/EBITDA (x)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 28
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 162: Oil & Gas – PER (x)
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 163: Oil & Gas – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 164: Ports & Logistics – PER (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 165: Ports & Logistics – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 166: Property (Non Vingroup) – PER (x)
4
9
14
19
24
29
34
39
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 167: Property (Non Vingroup) – PBR (x)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 168: Property (Vingroup Family) – PER (x)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 169: Property (Vingroup Family) – PBR (x)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 29
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Fig 170: Tech & Telecom – PER (x)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 171: Tech & Telecom – EV/EBITDA (x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
Fig 172: Utilities – PER (x)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig 173: Utilities – EV/EBITDA (x)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital Source: Bloomberg, VinaCapital
September 2021 – Page 30
September 2021
Vietnam by Numbers
Classified: Public
Disclaimer
© 2021 VinaCapital Fund Management JSC (VCFM). All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and is being issued by VCFM or one of its affiliates for internal distribution in Vietnam. The information herein is based on public and other sources believed to be reliable. Except for information about VCFM, VCFM makes no representation about the accuracy of such information. Opinions, estimates and projections expressed in this report represent the current views of the author at the date of publication only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of VCFM and are subject to change without notice. VCFM has no obligation to update, amend or in any way modify this report or otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any of the subject matter or opinion, projection or estimate contained within it changes or becomes inaccurate. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in this report constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or to sell any securities or any option, futures, or other derivative instruments in any jurisdiction. Nor should it be construed as an advertisement for any financial instruments. Officers of VCFM may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this report or in related instruments. This research report is prepared for general circulation and for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person who may receive or read this report. Investors should note that the prices of securities fluctuate and may rise and fall. Past performance, if any, is no guide to the future. Financial instruments discussed in this note may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own financial decisions based on their independent financial advisors as they believe necessary and based on their particular financial situation and investment objectives. This report may not be copied, reproduced, published, or redistributed by any person for any purpose without the express permission of VCFM in writing.